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Parting With Pudge?

Didn't you think the Detroit Tigers would take a week or so to relax, decompress, and contemplate before lighting the Hot Stove?  (Maybe that was just wishful thinking on my part, as I've been eyeing books to read and movies to watch with the regular season now over.)  So much for that.  The Tigers didn't even wait for the weekend to pass before squirting some lighter fluid onto the roster.  

We already know that the plans to move Carlos Guillen to first base have been accelerated.  Guillen will move over there next season, and the incumbent first baseman, Sean Casey, has been told that his services will no longer be required.

Thus, the search for a new shortstop begins, and early rumor winds are circling over the Braves' Edgar Renteria.  (And if you're Nate Robertson, you might want to begin perusing realtors in the metropolitan Atlanta area.)

But the truly surprising news to come out of the weekend is the revelation (brought to us by Danny Knobler) that the Tigers appear ready to decline the $13 million option on Pudge Rodriguez's contract for next season.  

The decision on whether or not to bring back Pudge has been a popular topic of argument and discussion among Tigers fans on blogs and message boards, and at bars and watercoolers.  I'd kind of stayed out of it up until this point, not necessarily because I didn't think it wasn't worthy of deliberation, but because I really didn't think the Tigers had any other choice but to bring Pudge back to be their catcher for at least one more season.

Yes, $13 million is too high a price tag for a soon to be 36-year-old playing the game's most physically demanding position, whose offensive and - more importantly - defensive skills are visibly diminishing.  But given the lack of a viable replacement in the Tigers' minor league system, as well as a thin list of prospective free agents, what other options were really available?  Obviously, the Tigers intend to find out.  What brought them to such a decision?

You accept that a player's power numbers and batting average will dwindle as he gets older, especially if he's been playing catcher.  But Pudge's seeming refusal (or inability) to draw a walk (nine in 515 plate appearances this season) has become something of a running joke throughout baseball.  And he doesn't seem too interested in changing that approach.  

I'm guessing the Tigers could live with that, however, if Pudge was still an elite defensive presence behind the plate.  But the numbers (hat tip to Billfer) confirm what had to have been noticeable if you watched the many balls that Pudge let get past him and the increasing number of base-stealers that were called safe at second base on his watch.

Across the board, he posted notable increases in the important defensive statistics for a catcher.  More base-runners successfully stole bases on him (though success rates increased throughout the majors).  A greater percentage of passed balls and wild pitches got away from him.  And these aren't just incremental increases.  We're talking about big jumps (or plummets).  His caught stealing percentage went from 46% to 29%.  His wild pitches and passed balls per game went from .320 to .510.  

Looking at that information, it becomes rather apparent why $13 million seems like far too high a salary for the Tigers to hand out next season.  But again, what are their options?

Jorge Posada will be as old as Pudge next season.  So will Paul Lo Duca.  Ramon Castro raises his arm when he thinks he's hit a solo home run while his team is down 7-1 in the first inning.  (Dear Ramon, it was caught at the warning track.  Nice try.  Love, The Florida Marlins.)  Jason Kendall stinks.  Michael Barrett was shipped to San Diego because Lou Pinella hated the way he called games.  And Randy Smith isn't the general manager in Detroit anymore, so Brad Ausmus is out.  Is Yorvit Torrealba the best of the bunch?

What about a trade?  After getting Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the Mark Teixeira deal, the Rangers have a surplus of catching.  But would the Tigers want Gerald Laird?  How about Max Ramirez, who came to Texas for Kenny Lofton?  I remember reading that the Nationals might want to trade Brian Schneider, but I don't think his numbers will excite anyone.  Might the Marlins want to deal Miguel Olivo, with Matt Treanor getting a lot of playing time toward the end of the season?  (Not only are Olivo's defensive numbers bad, he walks almost as rarely as Pudge.)

Are any of those players jumping out at you?  Does Pudge suddenly look much more appealing?  

The Tigers could be trying to work out different contract terms, and Knobler acknowledged that in his article.  He just didn't think Pudge (or perhaps more likely, Scott Boras) would be interested in less money (or maybe the same money, but spread over a couple of years).  And with that, maybe Dave Dombrowski is willing to let Pudge see what the market for his skills is - and risk losing him - before making an offer.  Knobler makes it sound like the decision has been made.  But given the alternatives, I really wonder if the Tigers can afford not to work something out.

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If not Pudge, then who?
When I read Knobler's disconcerting article last night, I had the same thought as you. Who on earth could the Tigers acquire that would be any better? You know, bird in the hand, and all that...

Good catchers rarely make it to the open market. The ones that do don't stay on available for long, and tend to get overpaid. Honestly, I have no idea what the Tigers are going to do at this point.

http://waynefontes.com/

by Big Al on Oct 1, 2007 1:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Two things:
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the way he calls games - would we see a dropoff (or improvement) in our pitchers' performance (especially the young ones) with a different catcher behind the plate? I don't really have an answer, but I'd like to hear peoples' opinions.

Two, what's up with Vance Wilson? Will he be active next year? If so, would a Wilson/Rabelo platoon be that awful? I don't think we'd drop off too much offensively, and it'd be a heck of a lot cheaper...

by russkiejedi on Oct 1, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Two Things
  1.  That's a great question.  There's definitely a drop-off in the staff ERA when Rabelo is behind the plate.  But I haven't heard or read any complaints about the way Pudge calls a game.  
  2.  As I understand it, there is a 9-12 month recovery period for Tommy John surgery, which means Vance Wilson might not be back until May.  I'm guessing he won't be ready to go out of Spring Training.
2a)  If the Tigers went with a Wilson/Rabelo platoon and got a sub-par hitter at shortstop (Jack Wilson, Omar Vizquel), they'd better get one hell of a stick to play left field next year.

by Ian Casselberry on Oct 1, 2007 5:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Two Things
I do believe Vance is older than Pudge and has just started throwing the ball again.  They don't even know for sure how successful the surgery was or if he'll be able to catch again.

by densogirl on Oct 1, 2007 9:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No Good Catchers
Like most fans, I've had this discussion many times, and for me it always ends the same way. Is 13 million to much for Pudge, of course it is, but there are no better options out there. Is he declining in ability, yes, but I still believe he is in the top half of starting catchers in the league. If Dombro knows something I don't, great, if not, bring back Pudge, its only money, isnt Illitch willing to pay to win now.
jgrubbs

by jgrubbs on Oct 2, 2007 12:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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