Juan Cruz: A Gamble or the Perfect Fit?

by Ian Casselberry on Nov 11, 2008 7:15 AM EST in Detroit Tigers News

ESPN.com's Buster Olney takes a look at six free agents who might not be on the Hot Stove marquee, but should draw plenty of interest this winter. In his opinion, Juan Cruz might end up being the most pursued pitcher, based on the demand for relievers and the numbers he put up last season.

He also thinks Cruz could be a great fit in Detroit.

[...] there is such a scarcity in the relief market for someone like Cruz that it figures somebody will gamble on him, in the way the White Sox gambled a four-year deal on Scott Linebrink last winter. Some rival officials think that he fits the immediate needs of the Tigers.

Just to remind everyone, Cruz threw 71 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings last season for Arizona. (His record was 4-0, with a 2.61 ERA.) That works out to 12.8 Ks per nine innings. And 71 was actually the lowest number he's had in three years. In 2006, Cruz punched out 88 in 94 2/3 innings. In 2007, 87 Ks in 61 innings.

Walks are a concern, as he's averaging almost five per nine innings. Maybe that doesn't quite mesh with the new Rick Knapp "throw strikes" philosophy. But maybe Knapp could do a better job of harnessing Cruz's heat than other pitching coaches have done in the past.

I already made my argument for Cruz back in August (and will probably link to that frequently until he decides which team he'll sign with). And though there are some rumblings that the Tigers might be interested in Brandon Lyon for their bullpen, it seems pretty clear that the other Diamondbacks pitcher should be their guy.

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Cruz

It’s a gamble but there is not too much choice. Tigers are better off to sign him for a couple of million more, than to sign Lyon. Relieve pitchers are cheap compared to the $25 million/year contract that Manny is supposed to get.

by Barry2 on Nov 11, 2008 7:44 AM EST reply actions

Type A

I think just as big a concern as his walks may be his Type A status. The Tigers have made a lot of noise about rebuilding this team from within, and how some of their young talent has to start paying off for them.

That doesn’t really jive with giving up a second round pick for a relief pitcher. I’m not saying Cruz wouldn’t be a good fit. Those strikeouts sure would look nice in a bullpen that desperately needs a lights out guy. But between the walks, the Type A and what may be the cost of high demand, I’m not sure the Tigers will move on him.

by mattintoledo on Nov 11, 2008 7:46 AM EST reply actions

But unless we go after a guy like Beimel, Dennys Reyes, Lyon or hope to get luck with a minor league free agent, we’re gonna have to sacrifice a second round pick. If we were absolutely assured that Zumaya and Rodney would be healthy and Perry and/or Satterwhite would be ready a type B (or lower) would be fine with me. But our bullpen is an absolute disaster and losing a second round pick to fix it might not be the worst thing. Plus, if Rents declines arb we’ll get another 1st rounder or at least another second round.

If losing a second round pick is a uniform concern, maybe Lyon looks like a better option than he did yesterday?

by MacRae on Nov 11, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions