More realistic: Competing in '09 or '10?
This post is inspired by the rumors we have heard surrounding the Tigers targeting such game changers as Jack Wilson and Gerald Laird.
The 2008 season exposed several holes that many of us did not see heading into the season and they do not need to be revisited here. It is worth noting that based on the results of this past season the team seems to be targeting upgrades at SS, catcher and relief pitching (in that order) with an eye on contending in '09.
As a fan it is always encouraging to see a team trying to compete every year but I am concerned that some of the proposed moves out there won't make a big enough difference in our '09 campaign and could set us back in '10.
First priority seems to be SS. I don't know if Ramon Santiago once kicked DD's dog or something but the teams commitment to having anyone but Santiago as the opening day starter is baffling to me. My first thought on Santiago is that the combo of him and Inge on the left side of the infield will provide a distinct improvement in team defense from Renteria and Gullien. Second, while it was a small sample of at-bats, he did hit .280 and he did walk more than he struck out (for the first time in his career). If he can even hit .250 and walk more than he strikes out next year I feel like that is good enough for a likely number 8 or 9 hitter.
I know DD is convinced Santiago will not hold together for a whole year so the best alternative I have heard is Jack Wilson. But Wilson to me is not enough of an improvement to make it worth it to me. He makes 6 million more a year than Santiago, is coming off a year in which he missed half the season with injury and there are rumors that his range has gone down. He hits .269 for his career, has never had more than 12 hrs or 62 RBI's in a year and has twice as many strikeouts as he walks.
Whether or not we truly get an improvement here for '09 is not what truly concerns me though. The Pirates already scared off the Dodgers with their asking price for Wilson and my concern is that the Tigers might give up someone that could contribute in 2010. That year is significant because DD continues to say that Cale Lorg is a future star and could be ready in 2010. So if Jack Wilson (or sub any other rumored name) is not the answer in 2010 and we lose someone how could contribute then in order to upgrade for '09 is it worth it? I say no.
Then their is catcher. Clearly the sample we have on Dusty Ryan is too small to be able to judge what he can realistically contribute but as a fan I would rather see him and Dane Sardinha platoon next year then see the team throw away money on a Gerald Laird or Matt Trainor. At least if they do make a move like that I would expect the person they get to contribute in 2010. But, I would rather avoid sending away a prospect and give the shot to someone in-house. If Ryan or Sardinha prove themselves capable then we will have them in the fold for 2010 and ready to go. If not we can still shop for someone in the '09 off-season.
The point of all this is that I can see this team being in a better position to compete in 2010 than in 2009 and I would hate to jeopardize that to improve our chances this year. Looking ahead to 2010 we could have a rotation that looks like this: Verlander, Galarraga, Bondo, Porcello and Willis. Assuming Verlander bounces back, Galarraga continues to improve and Bondo can hold himself together we could have a nice rotation. Add Porcello in and that could be a strong front 4 of the rotation. Willis is under contract so we are stuck there. As far as relief pitching goes, our last draft was so focused on relief that I would hope 2 or 3 of these guys can contribute by 2010.
Now consider that if Lorg is ready we will have SS covered. Shef will be gone and I would like to see Gullien moved to DH. In 2008 we had payroll above 130 million. We are losing the contracts of Rogers, Jones, Renteria, Pudge, Farnsworth and Shef by 2010. If we avoid needless spending in '09 we could have enough money saved to make a run at a quality LF (if we don't see Joyce as an option), 3b (for everyone that hates Inge) or a starter if needed.
It seems to me that at this moment we are in much better shape to compete in 2010 than in 2009. If we go in house to fill our needs at catcher and SS I think we can still be competitive in '09 if our pitching improves. Looking ahead to 2010 we may have in house answer's to some of our pitching problems. We also may have an in house answer to our SS need. If we save money in 2009 and with Shef's contract gone we may also be able to be bigger players in free agency to fill any other potential needs. All added up I hope DD considers our chances in 2010 when making deals regarding 2009.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Comments
Great post! I just asked about this on another fanpost....
so I am going to be very interested in what everyone has to say. Thank you for putting together the needs of the Tigers in one well written, well thought out great article!
I’ll be reading th opinions with deep interest!
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby
sorry, I meant to write I asked about some of this on another's fanpost.
This article has a lot of great questions and insights. I’m giving it a rec for I like how thoroughly you covered things with your excellent post! :) This will really help me to learn a lot about the present day Detroit Tigers so please know I appreciate this article quite a bit. :)
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby
by thegashousegang on Dec 3, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, but...
I agree that there are several questions about this team heading into the offseason, but don’t forget: this is the same team that most people were calling a shoo-in for the American League Pennant and World Series last spring. The bullpen was a major concern last year, but it’s entirely possible that the pitching staff buys into Rick Knapp’s strike-throwing philosophy, the bats get back on track, and this team makes a major push this next season. I’d like to see Sheff just ride off into the sunset, but he’s still got some pop in his bat when he feels like it. I compare him to Rasheed Wallace on the Pistons, he kind of shows up when he wants to. Cabrera had an MVP-caliber 2nd half last year after getting used to American League pitching, and I can see him doing the same all year this year. Bonderman will be back, and hopefully someone will remind Justin Verlander that nobody can touch his fastball when it hits 96-97 consistently. Don’t be surprised if this team comes flying out of the gate next season, especially with Leyland under fire from Dombrowski about how last season went. I’m not predicting anything big, but I don’t see why we won’t make some noise in our division next season.
thanks
I wanted to comment on your response because I realized that it is not entirely clear in the above entry. I too can forsee a scenario where we can compete next year. The top five in our line-up can be as good as anyone else’s and if Shef hit’s you can make that the top 6. I do expect Verlander to bounce back and I am counting on Galaraga to be reliable. I am still a fan of Bondo but I have a hard time counting on him since he has been unable to finish the season the last two years. I still carry a fools hope that Robertson and Willis can regain past form and be productive. If things break right this will be a very good team. I would also like that I am okay with the deals we have made so far. Everett looks to platoon with Santiago and cost very little. We have gotten some flack for the pitchers we gave up to get Laird but according to baseball America Morosco does not project to be a starter by 2012 and Melo is 17 and a could amount to nothing.
At this point I am pleased with the moves DD has made. But, as a fan I can see that competing next year will still come down to how our pitching staff rebounds. I like the guy we hired to be pitching coach but I think we may not see dividends on his work until 2010. Although we have not given up a ton I still question giving up anything when there appears to be a need to cut costs this season. I do like Laird defensively but the ceiling is hire on Ryan offensively. Neither Santiago or Everett factor in to the equation for 2010 so why spend any money just to have a carbon copy (good glove, light bat) of the same guy at SS for 2009.
I am very hopeful this team can compete this year and I am relieved we did not give up any guys (Joyce, Larish, Miner) who could have contributed going forward. We all know we need to address closer now and I am curious to see if anything will be done during the winter meetings. I still think the guy we will end up with is Hoffman if he is willing to come here. I worry Putz may cost to much in terms of prospects and Wood will likely get atleast a 2 year deal at atleast $8 million per. Perry could take over at closer in 2010 so Hoffman makes for a good stop gap acquistion. We shall see though.
by tigerfaninChicago on Dec 9, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Putz
I really hope we don’t overspend on Putz. I’ve heard rumors of Larish, Joyce, and a pitching prospect for Putz, which is WAY too much for a guy coming off of an injury-plagued season. I think that Matt Joyce has a future in our outfield after Mags and/or Guillen are gone. He showed some nice power last year behind the plate and I think his defense, while shaky at times, will be solid overall when he plays everyday. I think guys get into a rhythm defensively, much like they do offensively and I think Joyce never got into that rhythm. I’m ok with trading Larish, because he’s essentially blocked at his natural position (1B) by Cabrera. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Larish + pitcher for Putz deal, depending on the pitcher. I think that Putz would enjoy the move to Detroit because he’s from Michigan, and he’d be a great closer for us, but not at the expense of losing Matt Joyce.
by handsomerob1 on Dec 10, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
one more thought
Sometimes the best cure for a shaky pitching staff is a solid defense. I do expect to see some improvement from our existing staff with Gullien going to LF (much better than Thames, hopefully as good as Joyce), Inge moving to third, SS covered by Santiago/Everett and Laird catching are all potentially big upgrades from last year. Our staff should be more comfortable justing throwing strikes than they would have been last year. This seems to be the Twins formula and with our new pitching coach coming from their system I am hoping to see it put into effect this year.
by tigerfaninChicago on Dec 9, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions




















