A statistical look at why the Tigers lost to Chicago and why they'll beat Boston

Detroit vs. Chicago White Sox – 2007

(7-11) Total Series

(3-6) @ Comerica Park

(4-5) @ US Cellular

@ Comerica

31 RS – 40 RA in 9 Games (-9 Run differential):

3.4 RPG Avg. compared to ERAs of (all statistics throughout 2007):

                Verlander -  3.74

                Rogers -  4.19

                Bonderman - 4.78

                Robertson -  4.60

                Willis -  3.78

@ US Cellular

58 RS – 45 RA in 9 Games (+ 13 Run Differential):

                6.4 RPG Avg. compared to ERAs of (all statistics throughout 2007):

                Verlander -  3.74

                Rogers -  4.19

                Bonderman - 4.78

                Robertson -  4.60

                Willis -  3.78

Detroit vs. Boston Red Sox – 2007

(4-3) Total Series

(3-0) @ Comerica Park

(1-3) @ Fenway Park

@ Comerica Park

18 RS – 9 RA in 3 Games (+ 9 Run Differential):

                6 RPG Avg. compared to ERAs of (all statistics throughout 2007):

                Verlander -  3.74

                Rogers -  4.19

                Bonderman -  4.78

                Robertson -  4.60

                Willis -  3.78

@ Fenway Park

11 RS – 15 RA in 4 Games (- 4 Run Differential):

                2.75 RPG Avg. compared to ERAs of (all statistics throughout 2007):

                Verlander -  3.74

                Rogers -  4.19

                Bonderman -  4.78

                Robertson - 4.60

                Willis -  3.78

ESPN Park Factors:

Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) – 1.579

US Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) – 1.813

Fenway Park (Boston, Mass.) – (Below .556)      

Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

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Ok, now that you have been bombarded with statistics, let’s analyze what is happening. The Tigers dropped their first run in with the AL Central Division rival, Chicago White Sox of the 2008 season. In the process, they were humiliated on national television, and not only lost the series, but were swept three games to none and dropped to 0-6 to kick off the year. Now while the rest of Detroit and the baseball community is in panic mode, and that I cannot explain the sweep by Kansas City with any reason besides poor performance, and the pressure of high pre-season expectations, let’s stop and look at the numbers.

The lowest ERA of any Tigers starting pitcher of 2007 belonged to Justin Verlander which was 3.74, and at Comerica Park (which is where the Tigers dropped the first series and fell to 0-6, occurred) against Chicago, the Tigers only averaged 3.4 runs per game. So basically, even if the Tigers’ ace Verlander could pitch three afternoons in a row, the Tigers most likely will not win because they would most likely give up four runs (3.74) and would only score 3 (3.44). Reasons? Because Chicago is in the AL Central with Detroit, they will play the Tigers 18 times, and can watch and notice patterns in Detroit’s performance is a possibility, but this isn’t the point I’m trying to make. Compare Chicago’s 6-3 record in Detroit to Boston’s 0-3 record here, and note the latter was an AL pennant winner and would go on to win the World Series.

Why would a fifth place team be able to light the Tigers up in their own ballpark, yet the best team in baseball can’t win a single game there? Well, the park factor says Fenway Park’s rating is less than .5, making a major hitters ballpark. It is a possibility that Boston is so prone to hitting in a small ballpark like Fenway, that in a very large park, it is more challenging for them to hit home runs, or base hits, while Chicago plays half of their games in a large, modern, Comerica like, ballpark, therefore they are more accostumed to the park as a team. Add that to the fact that Chicago is a divison rival of the Tigers and can asses Detroit’s play more commonly, and it is not that surprising that a weak team can beat one of the best if the situation is right, and judging by the numbers, the situation is very much so right.

The bottom line: don’t panic Detroit. Even the though Tigers have gotten off to a 0-6 start, everything happens for a reason, and it wouldn’t be a shocker for the Tigs to beat the defending champs. And even though the Tigers didn’t fare as well in Boston, it’s a smaller park, and if our hitters can read the Red Sox pitching, our power will be able to overcome their defensive talent (which isn’t particularly great, considering they committed three errors Sunday in Toronto). Let’s hope for good pitching, and we should be able to get it done this week. Eat ‘em up Tigers! – Tony Kaminski