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Hello everyone, first time poster here at this site but I've taken a keen eye to Mr. Galarraga this season and made a point of watching as many of his games as possible.  Galarraga has certainly posted an unexpectedly impressive year after emerging from near obscurity to pitch very well, and given that those numbers have managed to hold - and improve even - with the league now having seen him at least once, its fair to begin projecting him as a long-term member of the rotation. 

Of course, as with any player on the team, it's important to be able to accurately project him over a longer term so that one can make reasonable assessments as to the teams needs in the offseason.  In that vein, its probably time to take a good long into not just his impressive production numbers, but also the peripherals that have led to this impressive season.

Using data from Fangraphs.com, we can see that he averages 90.1 mph with his fastball and can work as high as 92.  That alone isn't overwhelmingly impressive, particularly from a right-handed pitcher, however as studies have shown, the difference in effectiveness between a guy who throws 90 and a guy who throws 94 is marginal at-best.  He also brings a strong slider that certainly rates as his best pitch with sharp, late bite at 84.5 mph which is very effective both against right and left handed batters.  Galarraga also mixes in a solid changeup at 83.6 mph.  The pitch doesn't have impressive movement, nor does it have ideal speed differential (9.0+ mph), but he's deceptive enough with it that it can be effective.

That gives him - in my opinion - two + pitches (the fastball and slider) and an average one (the changeup).  That certainly qualifies as the makings of a fine starter from a standard scouting perspective.

Armando's production stats of:

IP: 133.1

ERA: 3.11

WHIP: 1.15

K/9: 6.21

BB/9: 2.97

K/BB: 2.09

BAA: .217

certainly carries high marks. However, there are some troubling signs that point to the current production levels being at least somewhat unsustainable over the long term. Among them;

BABIP: .249

HR/9: 1.01

GBo/FBo: 1.16

LOB%: 75.2

FIP 4.26

The ones I've highlighted in particular of course, are worrisome.  While Galarraga has limited batters to a scant .217 BAA, there isn't a pitcher alive who is immune from the gravitational pull of the BABIP standard of .296 (save for a few knuckleballers, which Galarraga most certainly is not).  Dominant pitchers like Johan Santana (amongst other phenomenal pitchers) can consistently pitch below the mark (by .05-.10 points), but not more sustainably more.  But I digress...

The simple truth is that Galarraga has been exceedingly lucky in terms of the rate at which the balls put into play against him have fallen for hits, and simply put, its unsustainable.  Whether the almighty BABIP metric takes effect over the second half of this season, or whether it reaps its revenge next year, Galarraga will, like all who have come before him, gravitate toward the mean.  Effectively that means that his sterling .217 BAA should likely be closer to .267, and over the long term, most likely will.  Over the course of his season, batter hitting .267 instead of a mere .217 would've meant a difference of +27 hits allowed.  Thankfully to say his HR rate is pretty much right on the median line, and his LOB%, while a bit better than the average, is well within an acceptable margin of 5%.

While its difficult to gauge precisely how his ERA would look if measured against accepted averages, we could make a rough estimation by  simply plugging in the increased number of hits against a xFIP formula (if someone has an up to date formula with AL and Comerica modifiers, that'd be awesome).  That could then be taken one step further by converting his LOB% and HR rate, though both numbers are within comfortably average margins, they could certainly play a role in bringing down his production stats for 2009 at least somewhat.

Over this season, even without the additional hits factored in, we can already see how Galarraga's slightly below average strikeout rate and average K/BB ratios hurt him as his FIP stands at just 4.26.  A good number to be certain, but one that certainly gives credence to the notion that his production statistics are significantly out-pacing his long-term projections.

Long-story very short: Galarraga is a good pitcher, one that has really helped keep this Tigers team firmly in the mediocre category, and saved them falling into "embarrassment" territory (though I know more than a couple Tigers fans who would disagree with that assessment). Regrettably, when it comes time for the team to determine precisely what they have in the rotation, and then conceivably which moves to make to 'fix' it, they can't expect Galarraga to repeat this performance.

The staff as it looks now has a trio of solid if unspectacular arms in Justin Verlande, Jeremy Bonderman, and Galarraga.  While its certainly possible for Verlander to reclaim the form that made him a dominant pitcher in 2006 and 2007, thats far from a guarantee, and the team will certainly need to make improvements to this area of the team, amongst others.  Expecting Galarraga to shoulder as much of the load as he has this season, given both his FIP, BABIP luck, and Minor League track record would be foolhardy.