Nate's Flexing Toward His Best Shape

If we get a reasonable approximation of 2006 Nate Robertson (3.84 ERA, 137:67 K/BB [which ain’t that great], .259 BAA [vs .315 this year]), I’d be fine with him as a 5th starter.

Need to cut down on the home runs, but that’s always been a problem: 2008 – GS 28 HR 25 as a starter – 2007 30/22 – 2006 – 32/29 – almost 1 per game.

need to split the 5th starter’s spot. Nate goes 4 innings, gives it all he’s got, then Dontrelle takes over. Or vice versa. The point is, if they both want to start, they’re going to have to learn how to share…

is that shot from Long Halloween or Dark Victory? I think it’s Dark Victory.

Even in Robertson’s bad state last year, the new Value stats on Fangraphs shows Robertson worth 1.3 wins, worth roughly 5.8 million dollars last year. He was paid 4.3. Regardless of where he pitches, and I think it should be in the rotation as the number 4 or 5 (Jackson is going to fall off big time this year, so we will really have 4 fringe starters this next year in all likelihood), we should not cut bait on this guy. Every season he has outpitched his value and has thus been a major steal. I don’t think his numbers could regress any more than they did last year, and I think they can really only go up. Let’s say he posts a 5 ERA and gets us 11 wins, then he will be worth his value, plus some. Willis, on the other hand, had a negative value last year, and if we should cut anyone loose it should be him.

Edwin Jackson has the possibility to improve since he is only 25 years old. He also could maintain similar numbers to what he did this past year. BUT……BUT to look at the fact that he won 14 games last year shows very little about what Jackson actually did. Just to throw out another young pitcher, Zach Greinke threw 20 more innings last year than did Jackson, yet he had 1 less win. His ERA was also 3.47 for the year with 183 K. Compare that to Jackson, who had a 4.42 ERA (on a much better defense) and only 109 K. Even using only the most rudimentary statistics here, I would find it nearly impossible to argue that Jackson was really a better pitcher than Greinke.

So……..taking a deeper look at Jackson, we have to keep in mind that A) he is coming to a team with a weaker defense, which will reflect in his numbers, B) his K rates decreased fairly significantly last year (He threw 20 fewer K in 20 more innings), and C) the number of runners he left stranded on base increased significantly last year from his previous years’ numbers (basically this shows that he got lucky and/or had good defense). All of this amounted to 1.3 Wins Above Replacement, which is the same as Nate Robertson had this past year, in a year that everyone was calling for Robertson’s head.

So if he is coming to a team with a worse defense, and we can’t rely on him getting as lucky with the number of runners he strands on base this year, then I can’t reasonably believe that his numbers will maintain their previous years’ levels. Based on these things, I see Jackson regressing to about a 5.0 ERA, maybe slightly lower than that (but not much). I figure if you look at projections, he is averaging around 170 innings projected for next year, which is lower than this year, and his K/9 rate should maintain a fairly pedestrian level. I figure once all is said and done, Jackson will be worth roughly 1 win for us, which is a decrease in his value.

In the same way, there is little to believe that Robertson should have such poor numbers this year. Our defense has improved, which will improve his numbers. His LOB% was lower than his career avg, and that should improve as well. His K/9 should maintain a similar level, if not improve a little, as well. With his poor numbers he was worth 1.3 wins for us last year. He won 7 games, so according to your method, he is worth roughly half of what Jackson is worth. I figure that his numbers will improve significantly this year and he will be considered a 1.7-2.2 win player for us next year. This makes Robertson roughly twice as valuable to the Tigers as Jackson. Once again, this is all just based on my own predictions. Like you said, Jackson is only 25. He could figure it out at his third Major League club. However, it looks to me like the overhyped Edwin Jackson has turned out to be somewhat of a bust. Sure, even with his projections he looks to be an AL starter. I just don’t know that he should be one of the 5 that we throw out there on a regular basis.

I didn’t believe you had jumped on the Jackson bandwagon at all. I merely think that many people have the wrong impression of what kind of player Jackson really is. He has never performed up to his potential, and at this point he has been given 3-4 years to show himself in 2 different organizations. I don’t think that he will necessarily be in the bullpen at the beginning of the season, and I’m glad that he doesn’t have the hype that Willis had coming into this past year. If you look at his numbers and projections (as well as how I have projected them), Robertson is bound for a big rebound, Miner looks to be just as valuable, if not more so than Jackson (and Miner has consistently pitched better in the rotation than the bullpen), Willis will also rebound, and although he has won 20 games and been an MVP-type player in the past, he is a complete wildcard.

Jackson is coming to an inferior defensive team, that has improved. Both things are possible. All I was saying with that is that the Tigers defense was TERRIBLE last season. We had 3 guys with cement feet in the infield last year, minus polanco, inconsistency in LF, although Joyce was a defensively superior player when he played (this was a small sample, but he looked to be the real deal defensively), and an aging RF who has been a league average fielder most of his career and who is readily declining defensively. Catcher was a weak point at D as well. This year, we have upgraded almost every position defensively, but this doesn’t mean that Jackson is coming to a better defensive team than Tampa. Tampa’s D is a huge reason why their pitching numbers were as good as they were and why Jackson’s numbers were probably better than they would have been on almost any other team. And their team has only improved defensively with the addition of Joyce as potentially the starting RF or 4th OF. So although we have improved defensively over last year, it still doesn’t mean that we are as good defensively as Tampa. So yeah, he is coming to a team with an inferior defense to Tampa’s D, AND our defense has improved. Both are possible.

Like I said, Jackson seems to be just another back of the rotation/long reliever on a team that already had 3 challenging for 2 spots. A little competition never hurts. But I think we got taken advantage of in the Jackson-Joyce deal. We gave up a potential starting LF to a team who was looking for another young, defensively talented and offensively valuable player in exchange for a player that was going to lose his starting spot. He was entirely expendable to Tampa. Anyways, I hope he works out well and is a solid 4th pitcher. I just fear that we will have just another question mark. But I guess 2 of the 4 guys will be pitching in the rotation, so we’ll see!

Pitching is the key to the greatest success, indeed. But I would still rather have a player who has more untapped potential and the ability to contribute every day in the field. The frequency of one’s contributions increases their value to a team. It can also subtract value. Believe it or not, even based on Joyce’s very limited role with the team last year, his numbers made him a more valuable player than Jackson. Joyce had a value of 1.6 wins, which is worth roughly 7.2 million. That means that on the open market, with what he did last year and his potential, Joyce would probably be looking at 8+ million a year, particularly as his value will continue to increase with more PT. Over an entire season Jackson had a value of 1.3 wins, worth roughly 5.8 million.

Now, I’m definitely no genius, but it seems that having a player that can contribute daily with league average offense, plus power, and plus defense at a position that is normally deemed the position to place defensive liabilities is going to be more valuable than a guy who you throw out there every 5 days and will give slightly above league avg. pitching. So why on earth do you trade a player who A) costs less and B) will contribute more positively, even in a limited role. Dombrowski simply made a bad decision in my estimation. In an offseason where we were supposed to be making cost-conscious decisions, this was the opposite.

Anyways, here’s a link that has a short article analyzing the Joyce-Jackson trade. I tend to agree with it; you may not. But that’s simply because of our differing philosophies. I’m not attempting to throw Jackson under a bus or discount his potential contribution. I’m merely being realistic in my mind and analyzing Jackson in a big picture sense, including what we gave up to get him. I must say, I’ve enjoyed this little back and forth banter!

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-edwin-jacksonmatt-joyce-trade