Tigers Top 20 Prospects
by Dberg on Nov 2, 2009 11:30 AM EST
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Print[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for some good ol' offseason discussion. We've already had some good comments and conversation on this post, so let's open it up to the front page. -- Ian]
Yeah, I know; everyone is doing this right now. But with a dearth of interesting, baseball-related news right now (at least for those of us still too heart-broken to care about the World Series), I needed something to occupy my time.
Admittedly, I'm not a prospect expert like John Sickels (those of you who pay attention to his site may recognize the format of my list). Therefore, I am sure that I have left some deserving players off the list or made vast over- or under-estimations of others. So what do you think? (And don't forget to take the poll!)
1. Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade B+
Anyone surprised? Didn’t think so. Despite concerns after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Crosby blew hitters away at West Michigan. He had one rough stretch around June/July, but was stellar for the rest of the year. He’s only 21 years old and will almost certainly start next season at Lakeland or Erie. Don’t expect big-league impact until 2011, at the earliest.
2. Jacob Turner, RHP, Grade B+
The Tigers first round pick from 2009 has yet to pitch in professional ball, but from all reports, this kid has a boat-load of potential. Don’t be surprised if he moves to the A-list after next season, but absent any professional data, I think a high B is a good grade for him right now.
3. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Grade B
I went back and forth between B and B+. Sizemore appears to be the heir apparent to Placido Polanco in 2010, depending on how his ankle heals. From all reports, his fielding is roughly average, but his bat should be above average for the position. He shows good on-base skills and has developed some extra-base and home run pop, as well. 2010 prediction: Sizemore finishes no worse than third in the Rookie of the Year vote.
4. Alex Avila, C, Grade B
In 2009, Lord Avila blew away any expectations Tigers fans and prospect watchers had for him. He reminded Tigers fans what it’s like to have a catcher who can actually hit (see Laird, Gerald; Treanor, Matt; and Sardhina, Dane). Expect him and Laird to split time behind the plate as Avila continues to improve his defense. If his defense continues to develop well, we can probably look forward to him as a full-time starter in 2011.
5. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Grade B-
Strieby has improved every year that he’s been in the minors. His AVG, OBP, and SLG have gone up every year despite moving up one level each year. Last season at AA Erie, Strieby posted a .991 OPS, 19 HR, and a .303 AVG before he went down with a wrist injury. Those are monstrous numbers. So why is he only a B-? He’s 24 years old, he has a history of wrist injuries, and he’s blocked at 1B by Miguel Cabrera. If his wrist doesn’t fall off and if he can become a serviceable left fielder, he could give the Tigers’ offense a boost really soon.
6. Andrew Oliver, LHP, Grade B-
He has a good fastball and change, but needs to develop an effective breaking pitch. He might be able to make it as a starter, but will more likely end up in the bullpen. After a rough first outing in the AFL, Oliver has settled down a bit. He's getting plenty of strikeouts, but has walked almost one batter per inning. Small sample size caveats apply, of course.
7. Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Grade C+
He’s got great speed and power, but poor plate discipline. If he can learn to control the strike zone, he could become an impact player. I just don’t see that happening any time soon.
8. Daniel Fields, SS, Grade C+
Word is that this kid has mad skills, but I need to see some professional numbers before I could rate him any higher. I have far more hope for him than I have for Cale Iorg, however.
9. Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Grade C+
He dominated the Florida State League before he was promoted to AA Erie. At Erie, his strikeout-to-walk ratio declined from 4.0 to 2.0. He’s gotten pounded in the AFL.
10. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Grade C+
Another good bullpen arm from the 2008 draft. Some concerns about command, but he’s got great stuff and should help the big club by 2011.
11. Scott Green, RHP, Grade C+
Another good bullpen arm from the 2008 draft. He doesn’t get the kind of strikeouts that Weinhardt and Satterwhite have gotten, but he’s still getting almost 1 per inning, and he doesn’t walk as many as they do. However, he’s also pitching at a lower level.
12. Casper Wells, OF, Grade C+
Wells is tearing it up in the AFL for the second straight year. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers give him a chance this year, especially if Guillen remains perpetually injured or Clete stops hitting again. And for an added bonus, he could spell Granderson in center field.
13. Casey Fien, RHP, Grade C+
He’s been great in the minors, but has struggled in his limited time in the majors. I still have hope for him.
14. Cale Iorg, SS, Grade C+
Great defense, can’t hit worth crap. Sound like anyone we know? Best case scenario: he becomes the next Adam Everett.
15. Jeff Larish, 1B, Grade C
Does he even count any more?
16. Adam Wilk, LHP, Grade C
Had an ungodly strikeout-to-walk ratio at West Michigan (16.50), but as Matt Wallace points out, West Michigan tends to make soft-tossing lefties look better than they actually are.
17. Tyler Stohr, RHP, Grade C
The closer for West Michigan had a pretty good year. We’ll see how it goes in 2010.
18. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Grade C
We saw him for a while in Detroit, but he’s probably nothing more than an occasional spot starter.
19. Wade Gaynor, 3B, Grade C
The 2009 draftee had a very forgettable professional debut in the GCL. Hopefully it works out better for him in 2010.
20. Zach Simons, RHP, Grade C
The best thing about Zach Simons? We got him from Colorado for Jason Grilli, yet he actually has value! Suckers.
Close, but not quite: Dusty Ryan, Luis Marte, Will Rhymes, Brent Dlugach, Brennan Boesch, Michael Bertram, Deik Scram, Kody Kaiser
All things considered, I think the Tigers’ farm system looks much better than it did last year. In fact, I think it’s better than most prospect watchers realize. We don’t have many players that are talked about on the national stage, but our 3-5 guys are all on the cusp of making serious major league contributions. Our top two prospects could both be front-of-the-rotation starters. We have a lot of bullpen depth. We have some high-ceiling talent, and some that will make acceptable role players.
So why do things look better this year, despite Porcello’s and Perry’s graduation to the big club? An infusion of new talent helps (Turner, Oliver, and Fields), but we also saw better-than-expected development among many players already in the system (Crosby, Sizemore, Avila) and continued positive development from others (Strieby, Satterwhite, Weinhardt, Wells). There were also very few complete busts. Cale Iorg has been a disappointment, and Wilkin Ramirez didn’t progress as much as we would have liked, but they are both still in the conversation. Overall, I think the future of the organization looks pretty decent.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Turner and Crosby
I could see one of them getting at least an A- from Sickles, and maybe a high ranking from KG as well. I also think Zach Simons deserves a C+: he’s been one of our better bullpen arms. I’d also make Streiby a solid B.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
I generally prefer to err on the side of caution.
In my mind, “A” grades are reserved for players who have proven themselves above class A. Strieby’s wrist concerns me, otherwise I would have given him a B, maybe even B+. I very well might be underestimating Simons, though.
Also
Marte and Ryan deserve a higher place on that list.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Marte and Ryan were my #21 and 22.
Any grades in the C range were distributed fairly randomly on my part. My problem with Marte is that he just hasn’t shown good enough results levels higher than A+. Considering his age (23) and number of years in the system (4), I would expect a little better. But I would be OK with inserting him among the “C” group.
I think you gotta knock Strieby down to a C
he’s proven he can hit a bit, but between his injuries and lack of any fielding abilities, I just don’t see him ranked that high .The top of your list looks fine. After the top 5 or so it’s all just a crapshoot anyway.
I agree that the lower grades are a crapshoot.
A lot of those guys could have been put in any order and I would have been OK with it. In the few hours since I posted, I think I’ve changed my mind about half of them.
I respectfully disagree, however, regarding Strieby. His bat is just too good. If his wrist can hold up, he could be a major contributor regardless of defense. The Tigers have been talking about picking up a DH/LF type player this off-season, and while Strieby may not be ready now, he could be that guy in the future. I’m sticking with my B-.
Exactly
I’d even go up- as long as the wrist injury isn’t too horrible, we could see a decent player in LF for a few years. I’ve heard Kevin Millar as a comp, but maybe something a little better than that is possible too. Health is important, but unless the wrist becomes recurring, it isn’t a huge issue.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
the reports i've heard from someone I trust around the eastern league
is that his fielding is just awful and didn’t improve. I wouldn’t doubt he can make it to the big leagues but I don’t think he’ll be anything special when he gets there. I think he’s Jeff Larish all over again.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 30, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
Jeff Larish, age 24, AA: .267/.390/.515 with 28 HR in 556 PA(87 BB to 108 BB)
Ryan Streiby, age 23, AA: .303/.427/.565 with 19 HR in 362 PA (57 BB to 80 K)
So at a younger age, he’s getitng on base more, hitting for more contact and hitting for more power. Plus Streiby has been making huge strides on his walk rate while the K rate has remained the same.
Streiby has a big future- I’m with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus- kid’s gon’ hit (if he’s healthy).
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, now take a closer look
OK, first off, you’re taking the strikeout out of context because Strieby had fewer times at the plate thanks to having a second consecutive season end with a wrist problem.
Since we don’t have all the information, I’m just going wtih at-bats + walks for “plate apparances.”
Strieby struck out in 22.9% of his this year in Erie at age 23/24; Jeff Larish struck out in 18.7% of his in Erie at age 23/24 (both turned 24 during the season). Larish also walked a higher percentage of the time.
Strieby had a higher average and slugged 565 vs. 515. His BABIP was .360. Larish’s BABIP was .292 there.
Strieby is just not that big a deal.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 30, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
High BABIP is a repeatable skill
What’s your point? The strikeout rate is higher, but Streiby is making much better contact- as evidenced by the high BABIP. Contact rates are a very good indicator of ability to hit for average (or just hit) at higher levels.
And the strikeout rate doesn’t concern me. Take a look at the strikeout rate leaderboard here. (you may have to sort by K%) . Not concerned.
Also, Fangraphs on Streiby (under Home Runs) .
I’d include some of KG’s comments on the kid, but those are all behind a subscriber wall. The only knocks on him are defensive and health related. He will be a good hitter, provided his wrist manages to heal.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 31, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
2007: .274
2008: .304
2009: .365
One of these things is not like the other.
We all want all the Tigers prospects to work out, but I think you’re just getting yourself way too excited over a guy who is not particularly special. And your appeal to authority? If Kevin Goldstein was right 100% of the time, maybe it would work. But you know what? He can be wrong too.
I’m not new to this watching prospects thing, you know. This isn’t my first year doing it.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 31, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
and do you know why I brought up strikeout rate?
Because YOU! brought up the strikeout and walk rates first. So if you weren’t concerned over it, why did you bring them up?
I’ll tell you what I do like about Strieby: he hits both RHP and LHP almost equally well. That’s definitely a good thing.
It’s not that I’m arguing he’s rubbish. I’m just saying, minor league stats don’t always translate to the majors. I’m not sure I really buy into the predictive power of MLE, but his 2009 season would translate to .731. That might keep you in the majors if you’ve got other skills, but with no speed and a poor glove, Mr Strieby just should not be considered a “B” grade prospects.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 31, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh
1) Strikeout rate: I brought it up because walk rate, strikeout rate and contact rate are very important things to look at for prospects (forgive the lack of computations- I was working on a paper so I couldn’t throw myself headlong into an argument).
2) The MLE- he’s certainly not done developing. That, and I’m not sure I buy the devaluation of batting average that much. I have the same problems with stat conversion you do.
3) The BABIP- it’s supposed to change over the years- he’s developing, and as a player develops, his skillsets change. Lets argue that it’s going to go up 30 points every year he’s in the minor leagues- so it’s .274 then .304 then .334. That’s still an improvement, and there is clearly an upward trend in the data.
4) Your argument against the KG appeal to authority… you can do better. Yes, KG is wrong, but that doesn’t mean we should discount his (expert) opinion, no more than we should discount Sickles or BA (who hates him because he’s not toolsy enough- a fair point)
Again, the B prospect, in Sickles’ words: “Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.” I see Streiby fitting there, health permitting.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 31, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe we've come as far as we can on this one, DDBB
I just think he’ll be marginal in the majors. I’d like him more as a first baseman in somebody else’s organization, I suppose. But I don’t like him as a left fielder and I don’t think he’s going to hit well enough to make up for his lack of glove, nor to be a full time DH. So to me, he’s a C.
It will be up to Strieby now to prove one of us right!
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 31, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, Kurt
On the plus side, it’s nice to have a fair, even handed argument with someone who knows what he’s talking about. (No sarcasm intended there).
I really do think Streiby will make a passable DH or slightly below average LF (he can’t be worse defensively than Marcus Thames) with some serious hittin’ ability.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 31, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Glad to inform you
or confuse you further. Either way!
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 1, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
It was informing
Sure, confusing at times, but it’s a nice change to how some comment threads have turned up this off-season!
2100 Woodward and Twitter
I curious what you guys think about Wilkin Ramirez as a prospect.
In some ways, he seems like the anti-Strieby. He has great tools, but terrible plate discipline. At AAA last year, he struck out in 32.9% of his plate appearances, yet walked in only 8.6%. In four years in the minors, he has improved a little bit at taking walks, but his strikeout rates have actually gotten worse.
poor man's Cameron Maybin
Well, probably not even that.
But his struggle with breaking pitches is what makes me say that. He’s not as good of a fielder either, of course. But his mix of speed and power sure tempts you. I’d like to see what he’d do if given a month or two’s worth of at-bats.
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 1, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
+1
I could see him as a very intriguing option in a corner OF spot… if he can make anything of breaking pitches. Otherwise, he’s doomed to a career as a talented 4th OF (but nothing more).
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Not yet
He’s better than he’s been doing.
And I’ll bet a beer and say that Ramirez will have a more successful career than Marcus Thames (calculated by WAR or WARP- your choice).
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
No bet
I think you’re absolutely right, only because Thames languished here for so long. I imagine he could have been a much better player given the opportunity elsewhere.
2100 Woodward and Twitter
On the topic of system strength
It’s nice to see some top-tier talent here- a pair of very good blue chip prospects, combined with a couple more (up to 3) that could slide into the back end of a top-100 or top-150 list.
This makes me very happy.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Agreed.
It’s pretty hard to judge a draft less than a year after it happens, but I think DD and the Tigers’ crew did a pretty good job getting some promising talent from the 09 class.
But what really makes the system look much better than it did last year is Crosby, Avila, and Sizemore stepping it up this year. If those three guys hadn’t outperformed all expectations, our farm system would still look pretty dismal.
Now here’s hoping that we can get a few supplemental picks in 2010!
Yep
Polanco, Rodney, Lyon should net us some nice stuff.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Maybe Washburn?
Do you think they offer him arb, or just let him walk? I would think that Wash wants to get as far away from Detroit as he can. Plus with the season he had, he can probably do pretty well for himself on the open market.
would think they are not offering Huff or Washburn
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 2, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
The chance that one of those toxic salary wastelands would even have a chance to tender a contract with Detroit scares the living bejeeus out of me.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Washburn at 9mm per?
No thanks.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
I think we can all agree that DD is not gonna give Huff the slightest chance to come back to Detroit.
But I could see them offering Washburn arbitration if they think 1) that his struggles for the Tigs was due mostly to his bum knee, or 2) that there is no chance in hell that he settles for arbitration. After all, the Tigers rotation is far from set next year. They have three starters lined up for sure, but beyond that, who do we have to count on? Bonderman? Robertson? Galarraga? I wouldn’t bet on any of those guys surviving a whole season.
Sure, they probably don’t have the money to pay Wash, but they also don’t have a solid fourth or fifth starter. And I would be surprised if he would accept arbitration anyway. He was having a great season until he came to Detroit, and he could probably get more on the open market than he could get from the Tigers. The free agent pitching market is far from spectacular this year, and given his age, I would bet that Washburn is looking for a long-term deal after a career year. All that considered, I don’t think it would be the worst thing in the world for Detroit to offer him arbitration. But if DD even talks to Huff this offseason, then Ilitch should fire his ass pronto!
Can you think of any times the Tigers have “placed bets” like that on whether a guy would accept arb or not? In my experience, DD is rather conservative when it comes to taking risks and arbitration in general.
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 2, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Kurt
I think you have the edge here on a statistical comparison, but that’s not really the issue.
I think Larish’s stats were projectable then and he had a much higher ceiling. They didn’t translate as well to higher levels (although his walk rate in the majors is not bad and I would not give up on him just yet), but many players with his line at that age and level do succeed.
To compare Larish to Strieby in such a way that indicates that AAAA washouts all hit at Larish’s level is false.
For example: here was another position-less vagabond from a few years ago’s numbers vs. Strieby at age 23 and 24:
Ryan Streiby, age 23, AA: .303/.427/.565 with 19 HR in 362 PA (57 BB to 80 K)
Kevin Youkilis, age 23, AA, .344/.462/.500 with 5 HR in 197 PA (31 BB to 18 K)
Kevin Youkilis, age 24, AA .327/.465/.487 with 6 HR in 417 PA (86 BB to 40 K) (before promotion to AAA)
Prospects Missing
One thing about the list is that it is heavily weighted towards players who were either drafted or have played at the higher levels of the minors. Latin players in the low minors that have a good chance of being better than many of the “C” level prospects in terms of potential include Brayan Villarreal, Ramon Lebron and Melvin Mercedes on the pitching side and Fernando Martinez, Audy Ciriaco and Avisail Garcia on the hitting side.
I’d also move Satterwhite up to a “B” since he did very well at Erie in his first full year after college (much better pitcher than Weinhardt) and drop Green off the list since he blew out his shoulder and Stohr off the list since he “dominated” West Michigan at age 22-23.
The problem with the Latin prospects
They’re raw. Incredibly raw. We could have the next Johan Santana/Hanley Ramirez or we could have absolute garbage- there is very little way to tell unless you’re a scout or you have the ability to watch them- it’s the reason I tend to avoid ranking players in SS squads. You are right in the bigger picture, but it’s just too risky for me.
And I could see Satterwhite as a B-. Stohr isn’t that bad, but I’d have Ryan or Marte on the list instead- I really like Marte and feel he’s being underrated.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Nov 3, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
only seeing this thread now
but I’m mildly surprised that Brayan Villarreal wasn’t mentioned until here. I don’t think he’s a great arm, but I like him enough and was surprised that it seems like Tigers fans don’t have him as someone to keep one eye out for.
For you prospect fans
Maybe I’m behind the times on this site, but I didn’t know about it until First Inning partnered with it:
http://www.projectprospect.com/
Here’s a look at how some of the experts did on their opinions, how they varied, etc.
http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/10/22/industry-top-100-analysis
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