Trade Miguel Cabrera? Whatchoo Talkin' 'Bout, Ken Rosenthal?
Up until this weekend, I thought the most absurd rumor surrounding the Detroit Tigers was that Brandon Inge was available for trade.
I'm not saying the idea of trading Inge is absurd. And Jon Heyman was presumably just passing along what he heard at last week's GM meetings. But what is another team going to give up for a near-$7 million player who hit under .190 in the second half of the season, largely due to two bad knees that just required surgery?
However, Ken Rosenthal's suggestion that the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera to the Boston Red Sox for Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Lowell, and a minor leaguer might be even more senseless.
Rosenthal admits he was just "thinking out loud," doing what all baseball writers and fans tend to do at this time of year. And the idea of trading Cabrera in itself isn't crazy. If you believe the Tigers are considering trading Curtis Granderson or Edwin Jackson to help trim payroll, it stands to reason that their most expensive player might get shopped around too.
(That is, if you believe Dave Dombrowski is really trying to cut Detroit's payroll down. I think there's been a misunderstanding about his offseason intentions, because this doesn't really add up. Yet it fits the popular meme that much of the baseball media has been trying to promote about the Tigers since the economy collapsed last year, so it keeps getting pushed out there.
Yes, Detroit is more than likely limited by its payroll, which is why Dombrowski is exploring these options. If the team doesn't have the money to improve itself through free agency, trades are the only recourse he has. And the only players he can trade are those other teams want.)
But how exactly would the Tigers' payroll benefit from taking on the salaries of Papelbon and Lowell? Long-term, yes, their obligation to pay Cabrera's contract would be gone. But in the short term, they'd actually be paying more money, and for two players they arguably don't even need.
Yes, the Tigers would prefer a veteran closer, and will have to pay for one. And Papelbon is a very good closer. But for the salary they'd have to give him ($8-10 million), they could afford a lower-cost option and still address other needs on the roster. Re-signing Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney would fit in that category.
Where exactly would Lowell play? In Rosenthal's scenario, presumably at first base, replacing Cabrera. But Lowell has played less than 120 games for the past two seasons, hitting 17 home runs each o those years. They couldn't get that kind of production out of Jeff Larish - or maybe even Ryan Strieby - at a fraction of the cost? Taking on Lowell would just be doing the Red Sox a favor. How would that make the Tigers better?
If Dombrowski traded an elite hitter like Cabrera, he'd spend the rest of his life trying to get him back. It's why he gave up so much to get him (along with taking on Dontrelle Willis) in the first place. It's why he was willing to stand by Cabrera after picking him up from the police station on the morning of October 3. Players like Cabrera don't come around very often, and the Tigers are a far better team with him than without him (or with whatever they could get for him in a trade).
Both Mack Avenue Tigers and Tigers Tracks look at the folly of this thinking in further detail.
What bugs me more about this whole scenario is that if a blogger threw a trade suggestion like this out there, he or she would almost surely be ridiculed by their peers and readers.
Rosenthal himself might go on TV and shake his head with disgust at the irresponsibility of the writer, like he did back in June. Because the unlikelihood of this suggestion - along with the fact it's based on guessing, and not actual reporting - makes it extremely difficult to take seriously. And Rosenthal is supposed to be someone baseball fans (and Rosenthal's colleagues in the media) hold to such a standard.
0 recs |
29 comments
|
Comments
Amen Ian
As soon as I read “thinking out-loud” I immediately thought about the Jerod Morris situation and how condescending Rosenthal was toward Morris. I don’t think throwing out a bad trade idea is half as bad as suggesting someone is using steroids, but the "reallying thinking out what you’re putting to paper (or blog) is synonymous, thus hypocritical of Rosenthal in nature.
Regardless of that correlation, I would agree the trade idea is asinine.
Motown String Music- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
by Packey on Nov 16, 2009 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"really think out what you're putting to paper" advice Rosenthal gave Morris
errr
Motown String Music- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
by Packey on Nov 16, 2009 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I want some of what Rosenthal is smoking
Regardless of whether or not the Tigers would consider trading Cabrera, Rosenthal is on crack if he thinks they’d give him away for a package including a tempramental closer who blew his team’s postseason hopes this year and an aging infielder. Just because he plays favorites with the Yanks and Red Sox doesn’t mean the rest of the teams in baseball are run by complete idiots.
But then, Dombrowski did write that fat check to Willis and trade Jair Jurgenns for Edgar Renteria. Maybe Rosenthal is onto something…
by Sutelc on Nov 16, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
On paper
Those deals didn’t look as bad as they turned out.
Jurjjens was a 4th starter (supposedly) and Edgar Rentaria was supposed to be a slick-fielding, good bat at shortstop. Turns out that JJ was a #2-#3 and Edgar was garbage going into a decline phase.
Willis… well, if he had turned things around and become a 3 ERA pitcher, Dombrowski would have looked brilliant. I can’t fault his logic… much.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 16, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
rosenthal, gammons, heyman
I wonder if gammons called rosenthal and asked him to revive this crap from early in the year, offering their scraps and over the hill players for a stud. cherry picking from redsox nation always looking down at other teams in the pecking order “mantle” they wear in their own minds.
gammons and rosenthal, “we’ll trade you a whole ham bone and an eggshell for your stud first baseman”.
such a deal.
call the smithsonian it’s talking to me.
by KalineCountry on Nov 16, 2009 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks Rosenthal's idea is absolutely ludicrous
It makes no sense short-term or long-term from either a strategic or financial standpoint. Strategically, you’d end up with a guy who would only be there for one year who couldn’t possibly dream of matching Cabrera’s offensive production, a closer who probably won’t be here more than two years, and a prospect (question mark in and of itself). That doesn’t exactly smell like long-term success either. Financially, Lowell and Papelbon combined would cost about as much as Cabrera, and the proposed long-term salary relief (which is Rosenthal’s entire justification for this trade) is not needed because of all the money that gets freed up at the end of next year.
by SabreRoseTiger on Nov 16, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Tigers are in a one season squeeze
The national talking heads conveniently forget the fact the Tigers will have payroll “issues” for only one season, 2010. Then SEVERAL contracts fall by the wayside. Willis, Robertson, Ordonez (If they watch his ABs), Bonderman and Inge all leave the payroll.
That’s a good $60 million cleaved off, while still keeping Miggy. The only so-called “bad” deal left would be Guillen at $13M, and he’s off the payroll after 2011.
Long-term, the Tigers aren’t in as bad of shape as some would have you believe.
by BigAl on Nov 16, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And for the trades being bandied about by these supposed baseball minds?
They are outright ludicrous. Period.
by BigAl on Nov 16, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And for the trades being bandied about by these supposed baseball minds?
Outright highway robbery…for the team getting Cabrera. Dombrowski would be fired on general principal if he made such a sill, one sided deal.
I can’t believe this is the best someone as respected as Rosenthal could come up with…
by BigAl on Nov 16, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not that trading Cabrera would be stupid
It’s that a package of Papelbon, a bad contract and an overrated prospect wouldn’t do it.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 16, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DING DING DING DING!
And now at Beyond the Boxscore and Project Prospect!
by Mike Rogers on Nov 16, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't we go through this last season?
I agree with Ian that it seems as if writers just want to perpetuate the notion that The Tigers have to drastically cut payroll. I recall that before the ’08 offseason started there was talk that The Tigers were going to have to reduce payroll by like $30M. Does anyone else remember that?
Anyway Fangraphs has a great piece here about how most of the payroll-induced trade talk surrounding Detroit is silly.
They make the following points:
1. The Tigers didn’t just realize in October that they were going to have financial issues. They surely knew this was going to be an issue last year. The response? Signing 2 (all be it cheap) free agents, trading for two guys who bumped payroll and taking $18M of savings out of a platoon role.
2. Excusing the fact that Granderson’s contract provides the biggest return on value in the organization, trading him would save the team just $5.5M in ‘10. A prospect that becomes sillier after taking into account the money that comes off the books next year. Trading Granderson essentially saves as much money in ’10 as non-tendering Laird would. Not to mention the fact that someone has to replace Granderson and unless it’s Austin Jackson you’re going to be hard pressed to find another productive, cheap OF (and no the answer is not Ryan Raburn).
Yes, this is a post about Cabrera but the overall point is that the perception that The Tigers are looking to trade these guys just to cut costs is silly. A trade will only be made if Dombrowski can adequately fill multiple positions.
Finally in a bit of cursory numbers crunching I discovered that while the team made $11M less at the gate in ‘09 than ’08 it was still $11M more than they made in ’07. And if you remember the Tiger’s market share of television viewership went up. Granted budgets are made based largely on what you think you’ll make in addition to what you’ve made and I have no idea what the team lost in corporate money after GM and Chrysler folded. Point is that I don’t think that an $11M drop in gate reciepts is going to force this team into a fire sale a season before close to $60M comes off the books.
by MacRae on Nov 16, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I said “silly” way too much in that post.
by MacRae on Nov 16, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Extra pepperoni . . .
A mere $11 million? Why, we could make that go away just by slightly incrreasing our consumption of pizzas . . .
by rea on Nov 16, 2009 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is probably going to turn into a rant but ....
Ken Rosenthal pisses me off more than anyone else in the media. I’d rather listen to Peter Gammons stutter out absurd trades or Buster Olney be flat wrong then ever have to listen to this condescending a-hole ridicule a blogger and then do essentially what he paints all bloggers as doing — speculating without actual information. He’s a conceited, pompous ass that thinks because he works at Fox Sports and is a media member, he’s exempt to the exact things he depreciates bloggers for doing. He’s one of the more reliable media members and the fact that I have to take his opinion on actual rumors seriously because he’s not as 100% absurd as Olney or Gammons or Heyman makes me sick.
I hate this dude so much.
And I’ve laid out cases why Granderson could be dealt and it makes sense but Rosenthals proposal is absurd. That package for Miguel Cabrera is asinine and completely low-balls the talents of Cabrera. Might as well say we pay for his move, flight out there, all his medical expenses and his pension out of Mike I’s pocket. In fact, Boston should just keep their players. That’d probably just help them out the most. Just throw us a Mo Vaughn rookie card and a number from the Green Monster scoreboard and we’ll be happy.
What a worthless piece of trash he wrote. I hate him.
And now at Beyond the Boxscore and Project Prospect!
by Mike Rogers on Nov 16, 2009 4:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That did turn into a rant
Reading it makes me feel better. A resounding +1 to you.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 16, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well said, Mike and Ian.
All the annoyance I was feeling yesterday, distilled into intelligent and humorous expression.
by rook34 on Nov 16, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nothing wrong with ranting
You are just expressing what so many other people feel, too.
And msm wonders why people turn more to blogs than them.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
by Baroque on Nov 16, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What is Rosenthal Smokin' ESPN Stinky Weed?
The Yankee and Redsox nation fan and wrtiers crack me up. Lets trade Zach Minor for Derek Jeter or Kevin Youkilis!! Get real east coast ESPN retards!!!
by Marcmargolis on Nov 16, 2009 5:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here's an idea
Why don’t they just sell and/or dismantle off the entire team, including prospects and we’ll forget there was ever an MLB team in Detroit. MSM makes me ill. They need to just leave our boys alone.
by Detroitchik on Nov 16, 2009 6:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is just silly.
Some people just need to shut up and leave baseball talk to the people who actually know what they’re talking about.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
New Song: One Days Work
by madpoopz on Nov 16, 2009 7:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Any of these moves...
Are bad for the Tigers. Cabby was about the only consistent player on this team, he was the only Tiger that hit over .300 this year, ya let’s get rid of him. And giy like Grandy who makes plays like the one early this year wher he caught the ball over the fence & single handedly won the game with that play for Verlander, he’ll return to form even if he had a mean slump last year, & EJ was I’d say our #2, even though Porci had a good rookie season, but if he had anykind of run support EJ wins about 5-10 more games than he did, he was great the 1st 1/2, but I’m sure goin out there & pitching yourself out & nobody wants to put up some point for U has gotta get discouraging. Get rid of the rest of these bums that can’t pitch Bondo, Robertson & Willis, trade them for SS that can hit & maybe unload Mags massive contract, he’s about the only guy it that caliber of player, cuz he’s turnin into a Shef-type player, that was another bad move, but he is gettin up there, & clearly didn’t have the power he used 2, even tho he had a huge 2nd 1/2 of the season.
by LTownDown on Nov 16, 2009 10:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cabby wasn't the only player to finish over .300....
That huge 2nd half pushed him over .300 as well.
I do agree with you though. This team has a lot of players on it that underachieved. I really don’t care how you look at it. Claiming that some of these players might be getting old just doesn’t explain the drop off in production (and power). And for some of these guys injuries forced them from playing pretty good/above average to playing sub par/poorly. These stupid main stream media outlets and their collective intelligence of a pea feel that hitting the panic button is the only way to solve an issue.
This thing takes the cake though. How can this idiot ask us to not only trade one of the best hitters in the league for an emotional closer and an old fart of a 3rd baseman, but also ask us to play the old fart at a position he does not know for a guy who is looking to become really damn good at that spot? It was one thing for these “writers” and “baseball experts” to suggest that we trade well established baseball players on team who merely faltered. But to suggest that we trade these guys for prospects? If you were to only pay attention to the mainstream media you would think that the Tigers absolutely FAILED this year, instead of pushing an extra-innings, one game playoff that proved to be one of the most well fought games I had ever seen. STOP THINKING OUT LOUD YOU SPED’S BEFORE I STICK MY FOOT RIGHT UP YOUR ASS ALONG SIDE YOUR HEAD. You people are paid to report. Let us do the speculating.
and I don’t care if this turned into a rant.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
New Song: One Days Work
by madpoopz on Nov 17, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe I forgot to put Magg's name at the top of that.
That huge 2nd half that Magg’s had pushed him over .300 as well.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
New Song: One Days Work
by madpoopz on Nov 18, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do enjoy seeing fans of other teams expecting trades to work like video game baseball.
We give up crap and you give us gold.
by 13194013 on Nov 16, 2009 11:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Okay, so far...
We’ve had Jackson, Granderson, Laird, and Inge actually rumored in trade talks, Cabrera “suggested,” and Verlander and Seay speculated upon. Is there anyone desirable we’re actually allowed to keep?
by SabreRoseTiger on Nov 17, 2009 6:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Prospects
Probably bad ones.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 17, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 







![From Ed Price via Twitter:
"[...] Tigers sorting through offers from 12 teams on Edwin Jackson."
(Photo via CherryHill InJersey)](http://cdn2.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/88776/twilight_line_small.jpg)












