Morning Prowl: Arbitration Decisions, Connecting Trade Dots, and Hall of Fame Chances

by Ian Casselberry on Nov 30, 2009 9:05 AM EST in News Comment 22 comments

More photos » Jerry S. Mendoza - AP

Placido Polanco is one of three players that could be offered arbitration by the Detroit Tigers.

Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. (Players have until December 7 to decide whether or not to accept.) And with that, several Tigers blogs have weighed in on what Detroit should do with Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney, and Brandon Lyon. The Detroit Tigers Weblog believes Lyon might be the only one to receive an offer. Mack Avenue Tigers and Tiger Tales each think Polanco won't get arbitration. (Lynn Henning, however, thinks all three will get an offer.)

Just agreeing with everyone is kind of boring, but I'm swimming with the current here. I don't think Polanco will receive an arbitration offer. (Lyon and Rodney will.) Detroit has Scott Sizemore ready to take over at second base, and the smart baseball move is to let that happen. (I'm guessing the Tigers have felt this way going back to last season, too. It was just a matter of which second base prospect - Sizemore, Rhymes, Hollimon, Worth - was ready first.)

Hoping for a first-round draft pick - a pick teams likely won't be willing to give up to sign Polanco - isn't reason enough to make an offer. Unless the Tigers don't think Sizemore's ready (or are concerned about his broken leg), it's not the right decision.

Jon Paul Morosi continues torturing Detroit Tigers fans by coming up with a handy, dandy chart to illustrate which teams might be a good fit in trades for Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, or Miguel Cabrera. Four of the team teams he lists are matches for all three. This dot-connecting exercise is based on Morosi's opinion, not necessarily conversations he's had with any baseball executives.

Morosi also spoke with a National League executive who believes the Tigers could receive "an enticing prospect package" for Cabrera if they were willing to cover approximately $5 million of his annual salary.

Henning's popularity among BYB readers hasn't exactly soared in recent months. His latest blog post probably won't help with that. Henning puts a percentage on the likelihood of Jackson, Granderson, or Cabrera getting traded.

Is this the year either Jack Morris or Alan Trammell is finally voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame? Jason Beck presents the case for each player with career retrospectives. Morris might be gaining some momentum as his vote totals have increased the last two years. Trammell, unfortunately, slipped last year.

Here are the other candidates for the 2009 Hall of Fame class. It'll be interesting to see what kind of support Edgar Martinez gets, as he was primarily a designated hitter throughout his career. (The tour guide who showed us around Safeco Field back in May was very hopeful of his chances, as you might imagine.) Second baseman Roberto Alomar and shortstop Barry Larkin look like favorites to win induction.

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ugh....

more trade speculation. DD isn’t going to trade Cabrera for prospects. Especially if he has to pick up 5 mil in salary every year. Also, we all know Ilitch likes to win. Trading Cabrera is counter productive.

Definitely offer Lyon arbitration. I really don’t want Rodney back, I’m still not convinced personally. As much as I would L O V E to see Polly come back, unless there is something really going wrong with Sizemore’s leg, it aint gonna happen.

My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Inside A Head

by madpoopz on Nov 30, 2009 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's be honest here

The odds that ANY prospect will be as good as Miguel Cabrera are, like, a million to one.

Tigers Amateur Analysis

by SabreRoseTiger on Nov 30, 2009 10:11 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

You're looking at it wrong though

Facts: At this point, in 2011 the Tigers have no: 3B, SS, LF, RF, and possibly a few SP spots to fill. The Tigers have little to believe in, internally, as far as 3B and SS goes. The outfielders are not greatly exciting either. And the only SP who might be ready to debut in 2010 and make any difference is Crosby.

On top of it, you have the issue of depth. The Tigers sorely lacked it the past few seasons, and that’s why injuries were so hurtful to the Tigers’ playoff chances.

If trading Cabrera can get you several players making near league minimum, and allow you to free up $10-15M more to upgrade other positions properly, you might just end up with a better team than the one you had.

You might not, of course. That’s why the “trade him or not” question is always relative to the deal.

But you certainly can’t make blanket statements.

Mack Avenue Tigers

by Kurt Mensching on Nov 30, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crosby is not ready in 2010

He has no secondary stuff… and his FB is good, but not “sinker good” like Rick’s is.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 30, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

typo

Mack Avenue Tigers

by Kurt Mensching on Nov 30, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 30, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

except...

that Miguel Cabrera is a special player. To me, he’s a player you hold on too.

My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Inside A Head

by madpoopz on Nov 30, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, Enron was a special stock too

Nothing wrong with diversification.

Mack Avenue Tigers

by Kurt Mensching on Nov 30, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but what happens when you don't trust your broker?

Or any other broker, for that matter?

Tigers Amateur Analysis

by SabreRoseTiger on Nov 30, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they'll do both

I don’t think the Tigers can risk offering arbitration to both Lyon and Rodney. If both accepted, they run the risk of sinking $10M into two pieces of their bullpen. I think they will only offer to one of them, if either. My gut tells me Rodney would be the one, but I’m almost never right about the Tigers’ personnel decisions.

by mattintoledo on Nov 30, 2009 10:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If given the choice between Lyon and Rodney, I'd choose Lyon

I appreciate the work Rodney did for us this year, but I think luck played a large role, both in terms of him staying healthy (something he hasn’t been able to do very often) and in terms of the fact that he only blew one save.

There’s a part of me that wishes that all three would be offered arbitration just because it’d put a nice kink in the media’s “salary dump” storyline, but I know this is not a smart move.

Tigers Amateur Analysis

by SabreRoseTiger on Nov 30, 2009 10:31 AM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

+100

concur with every word on every line

by Detroitchik on Nov 30, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

80% on Granderson, eh?

Henning needs to write an extensive column on what to do in CF since he’s apparently convinced Granderson is gone.

Oh, wait, that’d require some actual work and not just random baseless speculation?

2100 Woodward and Twitter

by john.kmiecik on Nov 30, 2009 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not sure, but I think he proposed having Casper Wells in CF (or Austin Jackson, if there's a trade with the Yankees)

Since I am relatively unfamiliar with either player, I cannot comment as to the merit of either suggestion.

Tigers Amateur Analysis

by SabreRoseTiger on Nov 30, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I fell down laughing.

What was that?

I’ll admit though, I could have missed Henning writing that up.

2100 Woodward and Twitter

by john.kmiecik on Dec 1, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, you read that somewhere.

I thought the same thing until I realized I was early.

2100 Woodward and Twitter

by john.kmiecik on Dec 1, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope Jack Morris does not get in the Hall.

I’m a hardcore Tigers fan, but he just doesn’t deserve it. He was an above average pitcher, but he was never a Hall-worthy pitcher. There is at least one pitcher on the ballot (Bert Blyleven) who deserves to be in the Hall more than Morris does. Trammell, on the other hand, should have been in the Hall years ago.

What really chaps my ass is that Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin will probably get in on the first ballot, but Lou Whitaker was eliminated on his first. Overall, Alomar was probably better than Lou, but he wasn’t THAT much better. Certainly not so much better as to justify such a discrepancy in their Hall of Fame candidacies. Likewise, Trammell and Larkin had remarkably similar careers, and it kills me to see Trammell languishing around 15% each year. At least Tram and Sweet Lou both made it into the Hall of Merit.

by Dberg on Nov 30, 2009 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd hate to disagree..

.. but being in my late 20’s, I grew up on Robbie Alomar, and putting him and Sweet Lou in the same HOF talk is just bananas! Alomar could do it all, with his bat and/or glove. Guy was also able to chip in SB’s as well. Trammell/Whitaker was a GREAT double play tandem, but Alomar/Vizquel was the greatest.

I hope Alomar’s spitting incident, and the recent AIDS rumors don’t tarnish his bid.

I also agree with Dberg.. Morris isn’t a HOF’er to me either.

by Nich on Nov 30, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alomar was probably better than Whitaker,

but not by as much as you suggest. I certainly don’t think their differences justify Alomar being elected on the first ballot while Lou can’t even muster 5% on his first HoF ballot.

On fielding, Total Zone actually shows Whitaker as being substantially above average (69.8 runs above average), while Alomar actually rates below average (21.5 runs below average). Both Alomar and Whitaker had career OPS+ of 116. As you point out, however, Alomar was a much better base stealer than Whitaker was.

I strongly disagree on the greatest double play tandem. Vizquel and Alomar only played together for 3 seasons. It would take way more than that to call them a truly great tandem.

by Dberg on Nov 30, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs