Can Armando Galarraga Repeat 2008?

by Ian Casselberry on Feb 24, 2009 2:00 PM EST in News Comment 3 comments

While talking Tigers on The Joey H Show last Wednesday (you can listen at the show's site, though I still plan to post audio here), I said that I believed Armando Galarraga to be the "x-factor" in this season's starting rotation.

Yes, there are plenty of questions about Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson bouncing back, and whether or not Jeremy Bonderman is recovered from injury. But what if Galarraga was a one-year wonder and can't give Detroit a solid #3 starter? Maybe getting Edwin Jackson was a hedge against that (and, of course, Willis and Robertson), but how badly would that throw the rotation out of whack?

Minor League Ball's John Sickels is not among the optimistic:

As you know, Galarraga was one of the most surprising rookies in 2008, going 13-7, 3.73 for the Tigers with a 126/61 K/BB ratio and 152 hits allowed in 179 innings. The better pitching environment in Detroit certainly helped. Is this sustainable? I think he is due for slippage. His H/IP was much better last year than in his minor league career, and while the better environment helps, I'd bet on an ERA closer to 5.00 than 3.84 again. If he stays healthy I think he can be decent pitcher, but I suspect 2008 was his career year.

Guess for 2009: nagging injury problems, 24 starts,139 innings,152 hits, 93/49 K/BB, 4.75 ERA.

You can read the entire post here, along with what commentors have to say about Galarraga's chances this season.

I know the spring is a time for optimism, when all things seem possible. But what can we really realistically expect from Galarraga in 2009? I'll admit that I've figured he's a guy the Tigers can count on, and hadn't really given the issue much thought until a few weeks ago while trading instant messages with Kurt on the subject.

How about you? Is this something you've been worried about, as well? Or is Galarraga not in your "question mark" column for the upcoming season?

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No, he'll be better!

by densogirl on Feb 24, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That is BS.

Sure it could happen, but any journalist could write that he was going to be 2-18, 10-10, 15-2, ect. Just as the Tigers were crowned favorites last year……I guess it’s their job to speculate, but c’mon…….I have no brain cells involved in thinking about this.

by Zappatista on Feb 25, 2009 7:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Most analysts are going to have Galarraga as significantly worse than in 2008 for a number of reasons.

- His ERA was significantly lower than the ERA suggested by his peripherals, which would be in the 4.40-4.60 range for last season. Peripheral ERAs track future ERAs significantly better than actual ERAs do.

- His BABIP was an unsustainable .247 in 2008. Make that BABIP a still-unsustainable .265 and his ERA is already north of 4 without considering any other factor.

- His performance was significantly better than his history. Going from a 4.02 ERA in AA and a 4.74 ERA in AAA to a 3.73 in the AL is an unusual progression.

- Simple regression. Even without any of the above factors, there’s a strong tendency for all players to regress towards the mean.

You combine everything above and you get a lot of mediocre projections for Galarraga. Sickels is hardly alone. If you look at the system projections, only Marcel, which doesn’t include minor league performance, has him below 4 while everyone else I can think of has him ranging from around 4.50 to near 5.00.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Feb 25, 2009 10:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs