Stark Views of the Fifth Starter Battle

I’ve mostly heard it poor-chell-oh, but also the other way. Don’t really know for sure.

I think we do forget that good outings out of any of these guys instantly make them trade bait for teams absolutely in need of some pitching. Obviously, their contracts might make that impossible. But DD and Jim DID say they expect to make one big move before camp breaks. That was awhile ago, though. I wonder if they were just waiting for Nate or even D-train to start pitching better to make that possible. I do recall Ian’s post (or comment, I can’t remember) that had a scout’s take on Nate— that he wasn’t throwing as hard and his pitches weren’t as sharp. But I do like this perspective that a potential trade could happen.

Personally, with the uncertainty surrounding Bondo’s shoulder, in addition to the contract situations of Nate and D-train, I think it’s unlikely. But it’s not a bad thought one bit.

Joe Sheehan invoked the troubled auto industry when describing the Tigers’ payroll issues earlier this week, and while from the longer-term standpoint the outlook isn’t pretty, there’s more reason for optimism on the 2009 front than previously thought. With the exception of the Dodgers—whose addition of Manny Ramirez understandably rocketed them up the projected standings—no team has seen its PECOTA projection improve more since the beginning of the spring than the Tigers. A month ago, when Clay Davenport first ran the Playoff Odds report, the Tigers were at 78 wins, while today they’re at 84, just two behind the Indians. That has much to do with the aforementioned defensive adjustments; last year’s club finished 11th in the league in Defensive Efficiency, but they’ve knocked about 60 runs allowed off of their initial projection, thanks mainly to turning over the left side of the infield from Rent-A-Wreck and Carlos Guillen to “Quality .216” Everett and Brandon Inge. The calculus of the comings and goings doesn’t reflect the retirements of Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones, whose departures aid their payroll and their overall projections given last year’s craptacularity. Nonetheless, there’s still a whole lot that needs to go right in the pitching department for this team to live up to the forecast, starting with rebounds from Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, and the incoming Lyon—and yes, that’s a lot of ifs.

I don’t know if the Twins would be that far behind with their starting pitching. I have questions about their offense (even if Joe Mauer isn’t hurt) and bullpen (besides Joe Nathan), but Minnesota almost always finds a way to be in the race.