Magglio's GIDPs: Answer Found

[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of discussion.  More people are posting, which is great.  I want to put more of these on the front page.]

Want to get Magglio to stop grounding into as many Double Plays? Put a left-handed hitter in front of him.

The thinking behind batting Maggs 3rd is that he's supposed to be a high batting average guy. The double play rate, however, is caused by several factors.

1) Granderson and Polanco are good at getting on base;

2) Polanco isn't very fast;

3) Magglio isn't very fast, and

4) He's not plate-side protected.

Maggs is 3rd in a 4-man right-handed bloc in the lineup. Guillen is the only breakup point, and being a switch-hitter who's slightly better from the right side, he doesn't count insofar as affecting opponents' late-game bullpen strategies. There isn't a man on the roster except Granderson (unless Larish picks up) who would necessitate a switch to the lefty specialist.

If I'm an opposing pitching coach, all things being equal, I move up a right-handed starter to pitch, and then late in the game I use a groundballing right-handed reliever for the meat of our lineup, then bring in a power pitcher for the bottom of the order, and mop up the lefties.

I don't want to give fuel to the "we need a left-handed Marcus Thames" crowd, because so does everybody, which is why we can't get one. But I really think we need a left-handed bat between Mags and Cabrera to keep opponents' pitchers off balance. Breaking stuff is more effective if it breaks away from the batter. Sinkers and Splitters have an action which converts to top spin (and thus lift and power) if hit by an opposite bat, so even if the batter hits the top of the ball, it's got a weird action that either turns it into a foul ball or a stopper/chopper, which isn't what you want for double plays. When they're spinning away, rather than towards, the bat, it reduces power.

This theory plays out in his stats. Of his three GIDPs this year, two were in the 7th inning and 1 was in the 8th, all when the margin was within 4 runs, all against right-handed relievers. Last year, the stats were very similar. Innings 1-3 he had 11 GIDPs in 223 at-bats (4.9 percent). Innings 4-6 it was 6 (2.8 percent). Innings 7-9: 10 of 174 (5.7 percent). 8 of the 11 in the first three innings were in the 1st inning.

Against power pitchers, he GIDP-ed 3.9 percent of the time. He batted .244 but walked so often that his OBP was the same as his season average. Against average pitchers, Maggs hit .344 with a .388 OBP, but 14.2 percent of those plate appearances were GIDPs. Against finesse pitchers he batted .315, but his OBP was just .362 for that, and 14.6 percent of the plate appearances became double plays.

One more stat from 2008: 9 were on the first pitch; 8.25 percent of the times he put the ball in play on the first pitch of an at-bat, he ground it into a double play. 12 were after an 0-1 count (4.7 percent). 11 were in a 1-1 count (4.9 percent). Only 9 happened with two strikes (3.5 percent), and <b>NONE</b> once the pitcher had 2 balls.

These stats show the GIDPs are induced. With a runner on 1st and Magglio coming up, opposing managers call for breaking ball, and Magglio swung, usually at the first or second pitch. In late innings, they went with a right-handed pitcher good at producing ground balls. Otherwise, Magglio crushed the ball. He batted .344 in late innings. He also took fewer walks.

One person suggested Magglio should lead off to get some guys on the bases. These stats don't show that. They suggest two things that the Tigers need to do:

1. Magglio must become more patient at the plate when there's a runner on 1st. His "swing at the first thing I see," and the "watch one then swing at what comes" strategies aren't working out. Those are the two pitches that have sink on them. For the next few weeks, I'd have Maggs treat those first two like he's got a 3-1 count; swing only if they're meatballs. At the worst, until pitchers catch on that he's gun-shy, he gets to watch two breaking balls go by and get a feel for their sink.

2. Leyland can protect him by getting a left-handed at bat in front of him. Guillen is behind Magglio, but since Carlos is a switch-hitter who's better against lefties, he doesn't count for our purposes. If Maggs hits behind a big left-handed bat, that makes it a lot harder for opposing managers to play their groundball relievers through the meat of Detroit's lineup.  Essentially, it would force that lefty specialist in between Cabrera and Magglio during late innings, and break up that long bloc after Granderson of right-handed (or preferred right-handed) hitters.

Magglio's bat is still a giant asset to the Tigers. But if it's going to produce RBIs, it needs to be better protected. I'd like to see an experiment of Granderson moving down the 3rd. His power numbers this year would be perfect for the 3-spot, and this has the added benefit of not bunching up his left-handed bats of the 9-spot hitters Santiago (switch, but better from the left side) or Anderson. I'd try Polanco at leadoff, then Cabrera, then Granderson. I know it's not perfect, but I think it would be worth trying. If Anderson can keep hitting, he could earn the job (his stats so far are vintage leadoff), putting Placido (who, though also a righty, is absolute muder on groundball pitchers) behind Maggs.