Get off the Armando Galarraga Bandwagon?
by Packey on Apr 28, 2009 6:15 PM EDT
22 comments
Sky Kalkman over at Beyond the Boxscore breaks down Galarraga's stats and calls him an average pitcher at best when it's all said and done. I'm usually keen on statistics, but Armando went through an entire year of success and is keeping pace so far this season. When is it time to ignore these "other" sabers and start focusing on just output?
Sky says sell high (in fantasy leagues), but I'm not entirely convinced he's just an "average," pitcher. Certainly his K ratio is inflated and I don't expect him to keep an under 2 ERA, but can/should we expect results similar to last year or should we brace ourselves for a significant decrease in productivity?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff. However, it does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as anything else written here at BYB.
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agree with you boney
I don’t think he’s going to be THIS good obviously. But a high-3s ERA again feels possible. He’s striking out more, and he’s forcing a lot of ground balls with a good defense behind him.
I don’t know if Sky has watched Galarraga pitch or if he’s just looking at SABR numbers, but I’d say he’s passing the “eye” test quite well and has some pretty decent peripherals to go with it.
by MackAveKurt on Apr 28, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Where's Boney?
Motown String Music- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
by Packey on Apr 28, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha it's cool
Motown String Music- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
by Packey on Apr 28, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which peripherals are you looking at, Kurt?
I’m happy to admit I’ve never seen him pitch (that I can remember.) One scouting style thing I’d be interested to hear from you all is his long-term ability to prevent home runs through getting hitters to hit ground balls.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Apr 29, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, being "just" average isn't a bad thing. Those guys are highly valuable.
And there’s a decent chance Galarraga continues to develop.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Apr 29, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also: pony
And who’d have thought an analysis Galarraga’s weird stats would produce such an adorable avatar?
by Misopogon on Apr 30, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will stay on the band wagon
I think he was a real find and we struck gold with this guy.
Patty J >> the Detroitchik
by Detroitchik on May 6, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I respect you post that after a couple bad Galarraga outings.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 8, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
'Mando the man
I will say that some of these opposing batters are catching on to his low and outside pitches and therefore not taking the swing, but a few are still chasing. Armando will make an adjustment accordingly. He’ll do well this year. Now if we can get Willis going we’ll have some post season playing time. KC is the team to watch in the AL Central. Zack Greinke seems to be unstoppable. Cy Young contender for sure.
Patty J >> the Detroitchik
by Detroitchik on May 8, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saying Galarraga is an average pitcher at best is ridiculous
What is that being based on? If someone is going to call him average at best, then why isn’t Verlander average at best too? He didn’t have a great season last year, and had a rocky start this year too. Now JV is coming around and looking dominant again. AG has been dominant and he has had his bad outings…..that is just the game of baseball. Even guys like Sabathia and Cliff Lee have rough outings.
by KDawg on May 9, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just so I am not NL prejudiced
Even Santana, Lincecum, and Hamels have bad outings….:o)
by KDawg on May 10, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"What is it being based on?"
Did you read the article? If so, let me know where exactly the argument stopped making sense and I’d be happy to discuss it.
As for Verlander, I’d argue the opposite point as Galarraga this year. Verlander’s peripherals are awesome. He’s striking out 11.5 per 9 innings and walking under 3. That’s good for a 2.63 FIP, way below his actual ERA. Why? Mostly because he’s allowing a .340 BABIP, which is pretty darn unlucky. As that comes down, his ERA will follow. Now, to be fair, he’s also allowing homeruns on only 5.8% of flyballs, which is a bit low for Verlander who has a career 8.3% rate.
Based on past seasons, all projection systems agree Verlander’s a 4.00 FIP guy, but with 2009 peripherals so far, you’re probably looking more at a 3.75 FIP guy going forward. Those same systems put Galarraga at about a 4.75 FIP coming into this season, and he has a 4.55 FIP so far which is right in line with that.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 12, 2009 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry man
but I do not need to read your article to know that I disagree with it. I use something that the old timers used, and it has nothing to do with projection systems, fancy calculations of fielding independant pitching, or batting average on balls in play (highly unreliable stats by the way). You see Sky, I use something called good old fashioned talent recognition. It involves the use of my eyes to evaluate talent. What I see is what I know, and I think that Galarraga is much more than an average pitcher. Will his wins and losses, and fancy stats be average “in the end”? Maybe so. However, alot of that has to do with mitigating circumstances that are beyond his control. This is a guy who had the intestinal fortitude to come back from Tommy John surgery and pitch at a very high level. Not only is he a Tommy John survivor, but he pitches extremely well for one who has had that surgery, with great movement on his fastball, excellent location, and a good change of speed. I will not argue that Verlander is an average pitcher, as I feel very strongly to the contrary. I was merely drawing a correlation. Stats do not mean everything pal. Wins and keeping your club in the games means much more. Verlander was 11-17 last year while Galarraga was 13-7. Who was the better pitcher? I don’t care that Verlander was 18-6 and 17-9 the previous years before that (which is where your BABIP AND FIP info is coming from since you are projecting). Verlander’s ERA was 4.74 to Galarraga’s 3.73. Are you trying to say that Verlander is a better pitcher because he has more K’s/9?? That is the biggest load of BS I have ever heard. If you are going to call Galarraga average at best, you have to call Verlander average at best too. I say both of them are very solid young pitchers who have struggled alot of the time from a lack of consistent offensive support. I do agree with you that Verlander is the Ace of the Tigers staff, but the game of baseball is not won or lost in statistics. If we were solely discussing FANTASY baseball, then your argument may have some credo.
by KDawg on May 13, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would NEVER say Armando is average
I think he’s one (if not our best starter) I was kinda surprised dude said that too.
Patty J >> the Detroitchik
by Detroitchik on May 9, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well whatever it is
Sky Kalkman officially jinxed the man…or was right….
by Detroit4lyfe on May 13, 2009 4:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy were we delusional... he's hit one hell of a rough patch
Hopefully an injury is the real explanation behind these last 4 bad starts
Motown String Music- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
by Packey on May 17, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well props to sky
excellent timing, writing the article before galarraga totally fell apart.
by MackAveKurt on May 17, 2009 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He'll be fine
Verlander sucked last year too……people get into slumps in the major league. He’ll work it out.
by KDawg on May 18, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sophomore Slump
That’s what I heard someone say on here, sophomore slump. These opposing teams are watching video and learning his tendencies.
Then I heard that the pitching coaches try to take what they see these do and “tweak” it. So, maybe the tweaks aren’t working. I really didn’t see anything wrong with his pitches before this slump, so I am going to go with the latter of what I heard. I can’t understand why it’s necessary to tweak it." If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it." So I say ‘Mando should just pitch what he’s always been pitching and forget about whatever it is they keep trying to get him to do. He’s still one of my favorites, what he accomplished last year was not just a fluke. I am rooting for him. I think he’ll be just fine. We’ll get another opportunity to see what he’s got tonight
Patty J >> the Detroitchik
by Detroitchik on May 23, 2009 9:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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