D-Train's First Start: The Unbearable Lightness of Low Expectations
The Detroit Tigers ended up playing almost nine full innings after Dontrelle Willis was taken out of last night's loss to the Minnesota Twins, so he probably shouldn't be the story this morning. (But until we find out why Nate Robertson wasn't brought in, there's not much else worth discussing.) Since it was his first start of the season, however, and there's such a heightened curiosity over his recovery and performance, the D-Train gets our attention despite not really being a factor in the final outcome.
So how did Willis pitch?
Four runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings is nothing to get excited about. And if we were talking about any other pitcher, we'd be saying he didn't play well. But since we're talking about someone who only pitched in eight major league games last season, who's spent the first month of the season recovering from anxiety disorder in the minors, who's become more of a project than a professional, it feels like Willis did a decent job.
"Hey, not bad" seemed to be the general consensus once Jim Leyland took him out of the game. Especially because the Tigers had several chances to win from there. Giving the team a chance to win is really all that can be asked from Willis at this point.
Yet as I look over the numbers this morning, and watch the replay of his performance, I can't help but feel the same way I felt when my grandmother used to stick up for my delinquent cousin. Grandma would rave about my cousin improving in school. And then I would ask how she did.
"Well... she got a D." And upon seeing the look on my face, she'd say, "She passed! She's really trying." Never mind that achieving the bare minimum, at a below average level of performance, should be the absolute least of expectations. With the bar set that low, just staying in school seemed good enough.
Isn't that the pass we're giving Willis right now? Never mind that pitching in the major leagues, at a mediocre level of performance, should be the bare minimum of what should be expected from him. (Especially with a salary of $10 million this year.) With the bar set low, any game in which Willis doesn't give up eight runs and eight walks in less than five innings seems good enough.
Of course, he has to start somewhere. And an outing in which Willis only gave up two walks and threw 53 of 87 pitches for strikes holds some promise. It's a bit of a concern that he didn't strike out any batters in his 4.2 innings, but after beginning somewhat tentatively, Willis began to throw hard, touching 95 m.p.h. on the radar gun. The Tigers didn't lose last night's game because of him, and that alone seems like something to build on.
But at what point is "Hey, not bad" still not good enough? When does the bar get raised? Or should we pass out cookies after each of the D-Train's starts and keep those expectations low?
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I'm fine with it
Great post, Ian. (thanks for the link, too)
obviously I won’t allow the second start to be like this one, but given the overall circumstances, and getting squeezed a little bit — both walks could have easily been punch outs, thus putting him at 2 K’s and 0 BB’s — I’ll be satisfied with his start. The biggest concern coming in, in my opinion, was regarding his control and his velocity. I think the way he pounded the zone and was throwing 92-95 fairly consistently, we can rest easy for this start.
Also, anytime you have a 14-10 game, you’re not going to have many (if any) pitchers who threw well and Willis is no exception. Perhaps it was just one of those nights.
Oh and Ian, go easy on your cousin, it’s not her fault she can’t read! (altered Big Daddy quote— no offense to your cousin!)
Nate Robertson to the DL
http://www.freep.com/article/20090514/SPORTS02/90514035
Retroactive to the 6th of May, apparently.
It Was Only His 1st Start....
……Not bad……he should only improve from here….Throw the breaking ball more and get more movement…..the very positive sign is over 65% strikes…..Much better then ZACH FREAKIN MINER!!!!…..GO DTRAIN GO TIGS!!!!
by BennieBladesFan on May 14, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions
Whatever this guy's on, I want some!
Willis has done better than Miner, huh?
In 3 of his last 4 starts, Miner has allowed 2 earned runs COMBINED.
If you look at Willis’ last 4 starts in the bigs and take away his worst start (just to be fair) he has given up 10 earned runs combined.
Yes, D-Train has clearly been much better than Miner…in bizzaro world. And if you REALLY want to get into the stats and talk about control, take a look at the walk totals for each pitcher in those games. Miner comes out on top again.
Don’t consider me the leader of the Zach Miner Fan Club here…I’m just pointing out that unbrideled optimism can easily cloud reality. I want him to turn it around just as much as the next guy, but I also want this team to have the best chance to win. That’s very unlikely with Willis in the current rotation.
Of course all of this may become a moot point anyways because Bonderman looks like he may be coming back sooner than later and if the Tigs decide to stick with Porcello then both Miner and Willis won’t be starting anyways.
Miner....
…….Has as many walks as Willis in like 2/3 a inning last night…….i also believe willis has more wins in his career then Zachy.
by BennieBladesFan on May 14, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I love how he has to prove it everytime out......
…..how many starts will it take…..So if he wins his next start and goes 7 innings and has 7 ksa and no walks its over right?…….Its ridiculous how people think he has to prove himself everytime out….If he wasnt ready he wouldnt be up….This start was average but considering its the MetroDome im ok with it.
by BennieBladesFan on May 14, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
To the Dontrelle Slappy
Everyone has to prove themselves everytime out. I still don’t trust JV everytime out after last year and this years start, but I still root for all of them. This was a first step. Not a great start, but not an implosion neither. I would love to see this guy turn it around, but we all need to see it before we trust him again. If he turns it around I’ll be the loudest on the bandwagon, but the fact is very few guys have been able to come back after losing the strike zone for so long. But like KG said ANYTHING IS POSSSIBLE!!!!! So go Dontrelle and let’s watch JV turn this thing around today.
ABC baby, always be closing.
by ALWAYSBCLOSING on May 14, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Training wheels off
I’ll give Dontrelle a mulligan because he’s coming back from a lot. But still, if Zach Miner or Nate Robertson had turned in a 4 2/3 inning, 8 hit, 2 walk, 4 run, 0 K performance, we wouldn’t be patting them on the back for throwing strikes.
Again, I give him a pass for the first game, but from here on out, he’s judged on the same scale as everyone else.
One start to get his head right
I for one thought the anxiety disorder DL listing was a sham, but whatever it took to keep that roster spot open until he was ready was OK with me. I also give him a pass on his first game back in the Show…he didn’t pitch badly and he pretty much telegraphed that he was out to throw strikes from the get-go. Maybe with a little confidence in the brain, next time out he can purposely mix his pitches up. I was also impressed with his velocity later in his start. I’m not counting him out yet, but I think if he is lights out his next few starts he becomes trade fodder and a deal will soon be in the works.
All that being said, his personality is enough for me to root for him. I think when he is on, he is one of the brightest spokesmen for the game….which sadly needs much help nowadays.
go D-train! Tons of us are rooting for you!
by Jeff Gregory on May 14, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice Post Title
I haven’t gotten around to reading the post yet, but I can tell from the brilliant title that it hits the nail on the head.
BTW, I read that book and I think I understood it. It’s about girls, right?
Ian, I only wish I could take credit. That line was penned by Nick Hornby and then delivered by John Cusack in High Fidelity. I think he was describing another book or two, also. Maybe you already knew that. Either way, I’m very glad you enjoyed it.
Man, I should've caught that
‘High Fidelity’ is supposed to be one of my favorite books. Clearly, I need to read it again. Or just see the movie.
by Ian Casselberry on May 15, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
My question is...
Is this a permanent spot in rotation? Because I was less than impressed with his performance.
Patty J >> the Detroitchik
The jury is still out
He did pitch around the plate, a huge improvement in that regard. We had some sloppy fielding, too. His personality is so different from our other starters that it sets him out of the box from the get go. He still has a strong arm. He needs another start in a different stadium. Let him pitch out of his jams unlike last night when Leyland yanked him. That’s the only way we’ll know for sure.
"It's designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything is new again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops, and leaves you to face the fall alone". A. Bartlett Giamatti

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