Strength of Schedule

by pfuhrmeister on Aug 24, 2009 4:05 AM EDT Comment 11 comments

Ok, so when some people can't sleep, they count sheep. Me, I get up, go to my laptop and start trying to figure out what it's going to take for the Tigers to win this division. This morning I've been looking at strength of schedule remaining.

The Tigers have 39 games left, the ChiSox 38.

The Tigers have 18 games left against teams with a winning record, the ChiSox 24.

The Tigers have 21 home games left, the ChiSox 15.

But that's not enough for me. I created a weighted average of opponents' record. What I did was just put in the opponents' record once for each game that they will play against that team the rest of the way, so LAA is in three times for the Tigers, for example. They I averaged that out. Based on this,

The Tigers opponents' weighted average winning percentage is .485, the ChiSox .520.

Still not content, I did the same thing for the Tigers/ChiSox home/road winning percentages and found

The Tigers home/road weighted percentage remaining is .542, the ChiSox .497.

Now I know that this is all based purely on what has happened year-to-date, and as such, doesn't carry that much weight - the games still have to be played. But based purely on remaining strength of schedule, I sure like the Tigers' chances more so than the White Sox!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff. However, it does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as anything else written here at BYB.

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+1

You hit the nail on the head- the Tigers have the easier schedule, and should therefore be favorites in the division. That being said, the ChiSox should never be written off.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 24, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that said, the Twins have the easiest schedule

and though they are still long shots, they can’t be eliminated until they’re eliminated.

Mack Avenue Tigers

by MackAveKurt on Aug 24, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Still

I’m happy to see the Twinks where they are- I was significantly more worried about them. Luckily for us, Slowey went out for the season- if they don’t make the playoffs, that’s why.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 24, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here kitty, kitty, come to Anaheim we are ready for you. LOL

Hey la, hey, Halo...

by 44FAN on Aug 24, 2009 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

were ya, now?

Mack Avenue Tigers

by MackAveKurt on Aug 25, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BP

The Baseball Prospectus simulations give us an 58% chance now, with the Twins’ odds a little better than the Sox’s—presumably due to the schedule.

Cheer for The Only Colors: Green and White!

by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 25, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

PECOTA favors the Tigers, albeit at a less rate. ELO favors us more highly.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 25, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here come the Twinkies

It looks like I’m going to have to run the numbers on the Twins now!

by pfuhrmeister on Aug 26, 2009 8:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't overlook....

Can’t forget the fact that we have all those games at the end against teams in our own division. LOOK at all those games against Chicago and Minnesota. Crimeny…this isn’t going to be settled until the last day I bet.

by 42jeff on Aug 27, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It is going to come right down to the wire

According to the W-L formula based on run differential, the Tigers are getting lucky right now, but are going to finish one game ahead of the White Sox and the Twins. Remember though, no sports statistical formula is exact. However if Washburn turns it on and Huff starts hitting a little bit they could steal a few more games. With that being said, I think we all know it is going to come down to the head-to-head games between the teams. 6 more each against the White Sox and Twins.

http://detroithustle.wordpress.com/

by jehu22 on Aug 28, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Magic number is 29 on Sept 1, it's over...but I can't forget 06 series against KC when it stayed at 1

The Sunday comeback win against Tampa could have been the ONE.

THE game that gave the boys the momentum to win their first Central Division Title.
They came back from the brink on a day when the twinkies could have cut the lead too 3 1/2. They made a 15 game winner out of their ace. They got a game winning 3 run homer from an unlikely hero. Leyland had the guts to leave JV in for the 8th and Rodney didn’t make the 9th, it too much of a thrill ride.

THIS was the series I feared most, 4 games agains the defending champion Rays and perhaps a tie for first on Tuesday morning, but now the Tigers have guarranteed at least a split, and they could take 3 of 4.

And they did this WITHOUT Cabrera’s bat. We got the mini slump from him that could have been a killer, but survived it and now he can make an MVP run in September..

I want to believe that with the magic number at 29 with over a month to go, that the boys have put this one in the books.

But part of me can’t forget 2006 when that “magic number” stayed at one and we had to accept the wold card. Now it WAS a fantastic consilation prize, but I want the Division Title!

I think we’ll get it.

Sunday was the exclamation point that help define a season of improbables, and like that comeback win a couple of weeks ago against Seattle, will in retrospect this winter be one of those defining moments.

And Rod TOLD US.

by Michigan Jim on Aug 31, 2009 7:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs