BYOBYB: Roster Moves Open Thread
by Ian Casselberry on Aug 5, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers News
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PrintWe have to be out of the BYB HQ offices for the afternoon, so we're opening it up to the people. Open Thread for the rest of the afternoon. Possible topics to discuss:
- Are you excited about the Alex Avila move or a little worried about how he'll be utilized? I'm a bit on the worried side because I don't think Jim Leyland has done a very good job of handling young position players in Detroit. Remember how fast he bailed on Cameron Maybin in 2007? (Although in fairness, Maybin showed that he wasn't ready.) Is Avila going to play behind the plate? Or was he called up for his bat?
- Who exactly is the left fielder on this team right now? And why has it been so difficult to find one over the past three seasons?
- Did Jarrod Washburn look as bad as his numbers from last night indicate? Or are we not giving enough credit to what is a pretty fearsome Orioles lineup?
- Why is a contingent of Mariners fans so intent on following Washburn's progress in Detroit, waiting for him not to succeed so they can gloat about it? Are a bunch of us going to see how Luke French does tonight for Seattle?
You can bring up another topics on your mind, of course. (Especially if anything else happens.) But please try to keep the discussion related to baseball today. There's plenty of Tigers-related stuff to talk about, many questions to bat around. If anyone wants to take the chatter way off-topic today, I'd encourage you to open a FanPost and do your thing there.
Thanks, and we'll see you tonight for the game!
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You, yes
But there’s this group of Mariners fans that have been coming over here and doing nothing but dissing Washburn and the Tigers for acquiring him. It’s irritating. There’s a difference between providing a scouting report and telling us what to expect and bragging that you got something from a horrible pitcher that sucks so badly.
I’d go into this tirade about how I hate how statheads have this massive ego problem now, but this is neither the time nor place.
Hmmm...
Mariners fans == Penguins fans?
(With exceptions, of course, but still …)
"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle." -- Philo of Alexandria
Nah
The M’s fans know the math and reasonings so they have that over the Pens fans. They just have an attitude that comes with rooting for a team that has historically been incompetent or unfortunate.
I will give you that. :)
It was a quick and rough comparison during a (very) late lunch.
"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle." -- Philo of Alexandria
If you have examples of Mariner fans trolling BYB, show them. I've found none.
I looked through the “A Trade! Tigers Get Jarrod Washburn” thread and searched for “Washburn,” and all I found was CKremer and Terminator X civilly explaining why Lookout Landing was so happy with the trade (and demondeaconsbaseball himself said they weren’t dickish).
Trolling opposing teams’ blogs is a bannable offense on Lookout Landing. If any LLers do it, tell Jeff, Matthew or Graham and they will put a stop to it immediately. But unless the BYB mods zapped a bunch of trollish comments, you’re essentially slandering M’s fans and Lookout Landing.
However, Lookout Landing commenters making fun of BYB and its commenters for loving the Washburn trade on Lookout Landing, while dickish in the extreme, is still acceptable SBN etiquette. Frankly, your love for the Washburn trade (That 1.44 July ERA is now ours! Veteran presence!) sounds eerily like Bill Bavasi and Dayton Moore-style talent evaluation to me, and probably many others there too. That is to say, the mocking is rooted in fundamental philosophical differences over how to understand the game of baseball.
Lookout Landing is often dickish and immature, and Jeff, Matthew, and Graham are the first to admit that they themselves are too. But it’s also a brilliant online community with outstanding writer/analysts/mods and the most rigorous thinking you’ll see in an online community’s commenters (who are amazing). That’s why I go there. Hell, Matthew and Graham invented tRA as college undergrads. If you want to shoot the shit about the deal thoughtfully, you’ll be welcomed – just don’t take it personally when people vehemently disagree. I’ve probably learned more about MLB baseball in five months I’ve been a LL member than I have in almost 14 years of being a fan (probably 1/3 die-hard and two-thirds casual).
In 2009, for the first, the Mariners, with leaders like Jack Zduriencik, Tom Tango, Tony Blegino, and Bob Engle, are running the team the way Lookout Landing and USSMariner have been begging them to for the past 5 years. It’s pretty damned fun being an M’s fan right now. If we’re dicks about stuff, chalk it up to over-exuberance and immaturity, not malice.
It's not slander.
It’s just plain ole defamation since we ain’t talking but that’s only if you can prove it is untrue.
Send them over our way
We hardly get any M’s fans poking around baltimore way. I guess it is because they are so satisfied with the Bedard deal. Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Mickolio…that is bound to sting for a few more years
We love the Bedard deal because we traded Jones, Tillman, GS52, Mickolio, and Butler for Eric Bedard, the firing of Bill Bavasi, and the hiring of Jack Zduriencik (who hired Tony Blegino and Tom Tango!) as our new GM.
I would have thrown Ichiro in too if that guaranteed that GMZ would become our GM in 2009.
I plan to watch some of the mariners game tonight
but jeez, I don’t plan to rejoice if luke french has a bad night. what a waste of energy.
I dont like this decision.....
…..to bring up Avila……he wont do any better then Ryan only playing once or twice a week….Bad move.
by BennieBladesFan on Aug 5, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
Quick BYB comment
I don’t like the whole “Continue reading this post” link deal. I like all my info right on the front page, no matter how big the article is :)
Okay
I appreciate you saying something about that.
I’m not saying I won’t do it, when there’s a particularly long article. But I have been doing it more often, to give people a chance to see more of the front page posts.
by Ian Casselberry on Aug 5, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I like it.
If I’m going to read the whole thing then I’m going to look through the comments and post comments anyways.
perhaps wash stole their girlfriends...
Seriously, the venom is a waste. Most of us were ready for sheff to go, but most of us, I think, smiled when he got 500. Of course, many of us smiled when he left, too.
by rook34 on Aug 5, 2009 12:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think our only schadenfreude is for Jason Grilli. Which is crazy, I like Jason Grilli. Who can forget his celebration goggles?
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 5, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Those damn goggles
I swear the only reason I advocated against his DFA was because of that picture in my head of those goggles . . .
As I was saying in the dead thread below...
(and remind me to check the home page more often)
We are going to see a bunch of these moves from now till the end of the month. Dobrowski and Leyland are going to set up the 40 man roster for September.
as long as September doesn't cost them October that is fine-
but AAA+ players are not likely to consistently carry a MLB team (if they could they should not be in the minors). I was not surprised with last night’s performance given the outfield that was put out there. Play your starters or send them away, but you can’t platoon the entire team.
No one seems to know why such an apparently solid offense is under performing to the degree it is, but I just don’t see Clete or Rayburn or mini-Avela changing things over the long haul.
If rest is needed, that is one thing and this time of year I’m sure it’s needed. But stagger it so you can have 3/4 of your starters on the field every day.
/ that is all. rant over.
I like the move to move Avila up
I think we can all agree that Laird cannot keep the pace of playing 13 out of 14 games up, nor can an AL team have a black hole in their lineup like Dusty Ryan (I think if Detroit was in the NL, they could get away with Ryan as a back-up).
I root for the Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings and yes, the Lions.
www.twitter.com/zajareich
That being said
It is hard to ignore the desperation in the move.
I root for the Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings and yes, the Lions.
www.twitter.com/zajareich
I don't think I agree
that Dusty Ryan is a black hole in our line-up, proportional to Gerald Laird . . . or Alex Avila (currently) . . . or the rest of the candidates to hit in the back half of our lineup
frankly I think Ryan needed to play more often
it’s no easy task coming off the bench one day a week
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 5, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
No reason to worry about Wash
Worst case scenario: Innings eater with a 4.50 ERA (or dare I say injured?)
Best case scenario: Washburn down the stretch (Aug/Sept/Oct) with the Angels in 2002:
11 GS, 6-3, 72.1 IP, 64 H, 17 ER, 41 K, 18 BB,
Amen
Great research, too. It was a great trade with tremendous upside and worst case scenario is Nate Robertson 2006, I think.
Motown String Music- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
Not tigs related, but
is anyone else hoping for a bench-clearer at the dodgers/brewers tonight? if prince fielder doesn’t get suspended that is..
I just watched the replay of the HBP on Fielder.
God I love Vince Scully “What a waste that was!” Honestly — why would you ding a hitter when you’re ahead 17 – 4 in the 9th?
if someone gives prince a sandwich
he should be ok. That being said. I love a bench clearer…at any game. It’s exciting.
Welcome to Detroit>>Where the weak are killed and eaten.
lol
I had more fun than you guys did last night because I fell asleep during the game when I laid down on the sofa. I hope to have fun tonight. A win would be nice… but without offense, run support might be hard for E Jax. I am, however wearing my “chicks dig the longball shirt” to the game…it has been lucky (so far).
Welcome to Detroit>>Where the weak are killed and eaten.
I want Frenchie to do well
I liked him. I read the story (on tigers.com I believe) about how the Mariners were his favorite team growing up and in 5th grade he made some timeline and said in the future he wanted to play for the M’s. I find it rather adorable and wish him well. DREAMS COME TRUE!
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5915719
We should have tried to pick this guy up. When he’s not pitching he could “pinch hit” for us when runners are in scoring position
They have to make these moves
Somebody in this organization has to be able to hit. For whatever reason, they weren’t able to come up with someone from outside, but someone has to be found, or we might as well give up on the season.
The reeks of desperation thing is kinda old.
It’s a backup catcher- we’re messing up a prospect somewhat, but it’s not going to doom the team if he’s up/
Tiger thoughts
I am fine juggling the roster with an eye on creating a spark. When Avila does get playing time I don’t imagine he’ll be hitting outside of the bottom three so I don’t see it making a big impact either way. I am not concerned about Washburn. He is a veteran (playing for a contract) with a world series ring. He was brought in to give us a solid top three in the rotation and last night didn’t change that in my opinion.
I am also not interested in discussing whether this is a typical second half nose dive we are in. We can still win this series, and the next before heading to Boston for 4. After that we have 2 more win able series at home so I am not panicing.
The only thing I am concerned with is what are we doing with Maggs? Does anyone know where he is at in terms of games started and/or AB’s to getting his option picked up? This is what keeps me up nights. I love me some Maggs and if they brought him back at a reasonable salary I would support it. I know most of you agree we can’t afford to pay him 18 million, the only thing I want to know is where we are at and if he is on pace to get the option picked up.
by tigerfaninChicago on Aug 5, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions
I think it's less than that
I thought it was down to like 72, before the game last night.
Welcome to Detroit>>Where the weak are killed and eaten.
"Why is a contingent of Mariners fans so intent on following Washburn's progress in Detroit...
…, waiting for him not to succeed so they can gloat about it? Are a bunch of us going to see how Luke French does tonight for Seattle?"
I’m following him now not as an M’s fan but as a person interested in sabermetrics. The M’s fan in me is just glad to see him gone and wishes never to see him again. But the sabermetrician in me wants him to fail as a vindictive “I told you so” to the ESPN-analysis crowd who look past nothing but Wins and ERA when evaluating a pitcher. I suppose as an M’s fan it’ll provide vindication for the Three-CF outfield as well, but that’s an afterthought at best.
And really, I came here first to see your reactions to the trade, and learn more about French and Robles, as I do when the M’s make most of their moves. When I found people proclaiming Washburn an ace I had to interject. Had Royals fans been even remotely excited about Yuniesky I’d have done the same thing :)
To sum it up a bit more succinctly,
It’s not a “contingent of Mariners fans … waiting for him not to succeed so they can gloat about it”, it’s a “contingent of sabermetricians … waiting for him not to succeed so they can gloat about it.”
unless he's really, really fat :)
"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle." -- Philo of Alexandria
You forgot the gay jokes and racial slurs.
Since you didn’t include those I cannot believe you are not from Lookout Landing.
Please include something about non-white people of the same sex touching one another’s genitals and anuses.
That's still stupid.
Wanting someone else to fail to make you feel better, for whatever reason, is just stupid.
"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle." -- Philo of Alexandria
I like going to Mariners games and booing the Mariners
Regardless of who their playing. It is fun to rile up the M’s fans.
Pretty tough to do, actually.
Safeco field crowds are way too laid-back, casual, polite, and family-oriented to make much fuss over visiting fans.
Geographically I'm not visiting fan.
And you just need to throw reason out the window and yell quite a bit and hope a killjoy usher doesn’t patrol too often.
Safeco is a great place to take in a ball game though.
Understandable
But this vindictive “up yours” attitude many in the SABR community have against ESPN and mainstream outlets distracts from one thing- we’re all fans of baseball. Yes, we’ve been treated like dicks by mainstream writers (I say we because I’m at least a novice stathead), but that in no way shape or form allows us to do the same to the mainstream baseball community.
In re Washburn, I’ll say it again. We got a player with a 3.75 FIP for a fringe starter and a relief prospect. I’m fine with that.
what's a FIP?
a stathead, I’m not….
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Fielding Independant Pitching statistic
Essentially, it removes defense from the equation.
It’s a Fangraphs creation- to be honest, I’m more a BP guy (their egos are much more in check).
I wonder why Grandy's become a league average fielder.
I mean, it is an improvement from last year but still… I bet its Nate Robertson’s fault.
Defense fluctuates wildly year to year
Why I’m not a huge Fangraphs fan- they seem to be gaga over it. To me, offense and offensive capability is much more predictable than defense.
Which is why RJ. Anderson, Dave Cameron, et. all have stressed scores of times
that it takes about three seasons of UZR information to equal the reliability of one season of hitting information.
This is true
But some of their coverage (Nyjer Morgan trade, for instance) seems to not reflect that philosophy.
I dunno, I’ve always loved BP- I like Fangraphs- they’re on my RSS feed for a reason- but I have high standards, I suppose.
"The M’s fan in me is just glad to see him gone and wishes never to see him again."
Why’s that? You want to never see an uber reliable back of the rotation started that you were overpaying by about $2 million a year in an overinflated starters market?
Regardless of cost, a lot of teams would love to have a Jarrod Washburn in the back of their rotation, throwing up 180-190 IP and a 4.50 FIP year after year. One of those teams, the Mariners, since one of the two pieces they traded for has a projection to end up like . . . Jarrod Washburn, if he’s lucky. Dollar value says you overpaid, but not by much, and not this year at all, with a 3.75 FIP for the Mariners.
Speaking more generally, blame Bavasi for overpaying, anf really not even, because he made a lot more worse moves than that.
The real question is, why so much animosity for one of the players that has kept Seattle in the West race with a freaking terrible back half of the line-up? Did Washburn sleep with you wife?
corrections
*back of the rotation starter
*one of those teams that would love to have Washburn is the M’s, since they traded for a Washburn -to-be
*Dollar value says you overpaid for Washburn, not French. 9 million a year is about 2-3 million more than he should make based on Fangraphs WAR projection, except for possibly this year, when it was maybe 1 million more.
*blame Bavasi, but not really because this signing was not one of his worst blunders
*your wife
That above post is one of the worst things I’ve ever written. The point stands . . .
You might want to pose this question on Lookout Landing (although edit out the accusatory tone), as was a very casual fan from 2004-2008 and only saw much of Wash this year.
But short, oversimplified answer: bitching about his teammates and throwing them under the bus (especially Johjima), being much worse than his 4.50 FIP would imply when you take his LD/GB/FB profile into account (with tRA – see here). The fact that he got worse every year until 2009, and the fact that he was never a good signing in the first place and his salary probably contributed to the outrageous stinginess that kept Bavasi from locking up Felix long-term in 2007 or 2008.
Having had to watch Washburn during that time on FSN made me question DD's sanity for trading for Jarrod.
At least DD didn’t acquire Carlos Silva. That guy blows.
I'll stay and play at home if you don't mind . . .
As a fellow stat head, I’m averse to outright dismissing a stat: however when tRA is consistently WAY higher than a pitcher’s projected ERA year after year for his entire career, I’d be willing to dismiss the stat for that player. Or at least recognize that it may not accurately forecast what that player will do.
Now, I’m assuming tra+ is like averaged around 100, that looks at least close to right for Washburn, average to below average against the entire league all those years. Albeit he’s having a better year than average this year, which is the only year that matters for us.
I’m a huge believer in FIP, but in his entire career Washburn’s ERA has been underneath his FIP every single year except for a half season in 1999. Sometimes a little bit, sometimes, a lot, but every single year. If he maintains an FIP of 4 (what he’s at after that bad start), my guess is he finishes with an ERA that maxes out around 4 for the rest of the season.
Zips has him finishing at 3.5 ERA for the year, that means he’d have an ERA of of 4.6-4.7 the rest of the way. Not what we hoped for but hardly horrific. I don’t see him possibly doing any worse than that, unless of course the reason Washburn’s ERA runs lower than his FIP every year is that he’s been the luckiest man in the history of baseball his entire career, and the baseball gods will cancel that all out over the next 9 weeks by having hitters BABIP go .875 off him.
Washburn’s LD% sits just above 20%, right where it’s been about his whole career, give or take. Other pitchers sitting next to him in that category: Halladay, Gallardo. There are numerous great pitchers like Lincecum that have significantly higher LD%. Of course, those pitchers strike out more batters, but Washburn LD% is hardly in the red zone this year, or any other year.
Guess I’ll have to check out Mariners Insider ish but I’ve never heard of Washburn as a character problem. To back this up I did some serious google work (tough day at the office, eh?) searching for avariety of character issues, in fighting, disagreements, and Jarrod Washburn. The only thing I found questioning Washburn’s character were a few different blogposts from your boys at the USS Mariner. Imagine that, I’ve heard they don’t like Washburn. For those who don’t have all the time, this is the interview from Washburn that they went off on:
-——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Asked about some apparent situations during his start Saturday when he and catcher Kenji Johjima weren’t in concert, Washburn didn’t deny it.
"There’s times when you’re not always on the same page," he said. "It happens."
Washburn was asked if there was any more of it than normal.
"With Kenji? No," he said. "Read into that what you want."
Washburn has made prior reference to some difficulty working with Johjima. On Saturday, he appeared to bark at his catcher after one White Sox at-bat.
"It’s a work in progress," said Washburn. "When he comes over from Japan, you know there are going to be communications issues with the language barrier, and him learning an entirely different league and a whole new pitching staff. And also, he has to learn the umpires and opposing pitchers. He’s got a lot to handle. I would never want to have to do what he’s doing. He’s got a tough job, a lot of hurdles."
As for whether it’s more complicated than merely different pitch preferences in particular situations, Washburn said: "I don’t know how exactly to word it. It’s more like a consistency issue, I guess. Sometimes you click and sometimes you don’t."
As a neutral party that doesn’t look like throwing Johjima under the bus to me, but hey, I wasn’t there, and you guys seem to disagree. I have heard Ichiro doesn’t get along with most of team also, however, if you want to send him to us through waivers.
this was a good piece
and echoed some of the things i’ve been saying in conversations but never got around to blogging.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 5, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I said my answer was short and oversimplified. I was trying to explain the general GTE (game thread emotion) vibe you saw about Washburn (GTE also applies in trade threads).
I wasn’t trying to rationally explain the Washburn situation. LL doesn’t actually hate Washburn, (despite the silly running jokes about him being a child molester). You put forth a well-reseached, well-reasoned, thoughtful take Washburn’s clubhouse issues, and I find little to disagree with. Again, I was trying to convey the Game Thread Emotion take on Washburn. Washburn is often admirably self-aware and honest about his pitching in interviews, too. He’s really not a bad guy. With his pitching, he’s made genuine improvements this year (his cut fastball is outstanding against lefties, dolphin, etc.).
I guess alot of it the emotion comes from how painful Washburn was to watch from 2006-2008, and from the general trauma of the Bavasi years.
As for consistent FIP and ERA, those are thoughtful, well-reasoned arguments that are well beyond my ability to answer one way or the other. Here’s some more on tRA if you’re interested, too.
Good post.
Also, FWIW, Graham and Matthew discourage testing tRA's predictive value by comparing it to ERA.
As tRA is scaled to runs against, not earned runs against, and for many other reasons they explain somewhere I’m having trouble finding right now.
I am fine with the avila move...
Jim plays players who deserve to play, especially among his young players. Since Avila is our ONLY backup catcher on the roster right now and Laird certainly cannot play everyday especially since he is already getting worn down, Jim will have no choice but to play him. Since the consensus is that his bat is ready and he’s pretty much gonna be guaranteed playing time at baseballs most demanding position at a time when the starter is wearing down his defense can only improve. Plus if you use him in tandem with a Verlander, Jackson, or Washburn aka veteran pitchers than you have less to worry about defensewise. As for Jarrod, I saw some jitters at first but I also saw his upside and credit must always be given to the opposition as well. And the contingent of M’s fans seems to be one guy who can’t go away and won’t shut up about sabremetrics.
Avila is 6 for his last 36 with 10 strikeouts.
I don’t understand this move. I would rather see Ryan get a chance to play 1 out of every 3 or 4 games or so.
I think Avila may be a stretch...
I don’t really have a problem with the move but i don’t really see a difference between him and ryan if avila is used as sparingly as ryan was. The only major difference is avila is left handed which is an advantage for the team right now.
The player that I am ready to see in Detroit to start getting some big league experience is Scott Sizemore. He will most likely take over at second base next year and with polanco not being his usual consistent self, why not call up sizemore and see what he can do?
by eat 'em up tigers on Aug 5, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions
I'm worried
Not about Washburn, but the hitting.
"It's designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything is new again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops, and leaves you to face the fall alone". A. Bartlett Giamatti
Agreed
Washburn may or may not keep up his pace, but he WILL be a solid starting pitcher for this team for the remainder of the year. The hitting should have always been the concern.
Hey Ian...
You criticize Leyland for giving up on young talent too soon such as Cameron Maybin, then you say that Leyland was actually correct in his assessment of Maybin? Wha???
His point was . . .
Leylend was correct in his assessment that Maybin wasn’t ready yet, not that anyone should give up on Maybin as a talent. Maybin’s still not ready this year, but he’s tearing up AAA. I doubt the Marlins would be accused of giving up on his talent because they demoted him.
Yeah, that's fair
My problem is that Leyland didn’t play Maybin consistently once he was called up. Yet before that, he gave players like Craig Monroe game after game to try and get it together.
Overall, Maybin never should’ve been called up, but the Tigers made what looked like a panic move.
by Ian Casselberry on Aug 5, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
well, the roster moves aren't gonna do anything for tonight
Tigers lineup: Granderson cf, Polanco 2b, Thomas lf, Cabrera 1b, Guillen dh, Ordonez rf, Inge 3b, Laird c, Everett ss, Jackson p
per beck.
1..2...3...
glad I counted the number of hitters listed before shooting off a “WTF???” about E Jax apparently having a spot in teh batting order :)
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Simons
Can somebody explain why Simons got sent back down to Erie. I thought he was in for a September call-up?
I thought so too
and he did nothing wrong in toledo. so who knows why they do what they do.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 5, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
that'd be cool to see josh
since I (and I assume some others) will be keeping tabs on that game anyway for luke.
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