Tigers Top 10 Prospects- Midseason Update

[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of discussion.  I'm not sure enough people have gotten to read this.]

Since I'm the quasi-prospect guru here on BYB, I figured that I should do something content-related on the farm system. Now, I'm no Matt Wallace, but I thought a look at the top 10 prospects in the Tigers farm system might be worth doing. After all, most of the preseason prospect rankings are moot at this point (I saw somebody in the Tiger blogosphere using a C+ ranking for Casey Crosby?!?!?) and an updated list midseason makes sense. Alas, I was lazy then (and had draft coverage to worry about). Plus, it makes sense to wait until the trade deadline so you make sure you don't write an extended piece up on a prospect that's being sent to the Mariners (or anyone else for that matter).

As for what I'm looking for in top prospects - that's simple. First, I favor players at higher levels over young, toolsy types. Plate discipline, contact ability and power are the three things I'm looking at for position prospects. Of those three, plate discipline is far and away the most important. I'll probably favor guys who can get on base over the uber-toolsy young prospects with little plate discipline. For pitchers, I'm looking for strikeout rate, walk rate and homer rate. I also heavily favor starters over relievers. An additional note- my list will not include either Rick Porcello or Ryan Perry - both of those guys would easily be #1 and #3 in the system, but since everyone knows who they are, what's the point, right? On with the show!

1. Casey Crosby, LHP, West Michigan Whitecaps, 20 years old

9-4, 2.64 ERA, 96.2 IP, 10.43 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .28 HR/9

It's no secret I love Casey Crosby, so much that I shouted down pretty much every trade rumor regarding him before the deadline. Why am I such a fanboy? Take a look at that K rate- in his first full year of pro baseball, Crosby has dominated A ball hitters, and that strikeout rate is proof. His secondary stuff (curve and change) have a ways to come, and he's got an injury history (Tommy John in his past), but he can get it up to 96 or 97. Combine that with a potential second plus pitch in his change, and he's enough to make a prospect geek like me start drooling.

2. Alex Avila, C, Erie Seawolves (now the Detroit Tigers), 21 years old

387 PA, .264/.365/.450, 12 HR, 52 BB, 77 K

A catcher that hits for a good amount of power with decent contact skills and good plate discipline? What's not to like? As Tigers fans are now finding out, Alex Avila is the real deal as far as prospects go. Defensively he could use some work, but he's made drastic improvements at AA and for a kid that's been catching for 2 years now, he's doing just fine.

3. Wilkin Ramirez, Corner OF, Toledo Mud Hens, 23 years old

403 PA, .271/.347/.450, 13 HR, 39 BB, 121 K

He's a strikeout machine. That's the first thing that comes up when I think Wilkin Ramirez. He K's far too much to be anything other than a 4th OF in the majors right now. But there's definitely something there- he's loaded with tools, with excellent speed, a very good power stroke and decent enough contact rates. He just needs to get some strike zone judgment- if there's a potential impact player in this system besides Crosby, Ramirez just may be it.  

4. Ryan Strieby, 1B/LF, Erie Seawolves, 23

319 PA, .305/.421/.561, 17 HR, 48 BB, 78 K

He's gonna hit. While Strieby is on the DL with wrist problems, and while wrist problems are no laughing matter, I still have faith in this kid. If those wrist woes clear up, the Tigers have a monster on their hands. Strieby improved his K/BB rate this year dramatically- he's walked two more times in 150 less plate appearances (at a higher level, too). He's had power- 29 HR last year, 17 this year. He can hit for a decent average. Scouts love his stick. His defense, though… well, let's say he'd be great as a DH. If Streiby could play left field, it would be a minor miracle (and he was trying it out before his injury). If not, the Tigers will probably DH the kid. I'll repeat- he's gonna hit.

5. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Erie SeaWolves/Toledo Mud Hens, 24 years old

Erie: 229 PA, .307/.432/.535, 9 HR, 35 BB, 46 K

Toledo: 209 PA, .308/.382/.467, 5 HR, 19 BB, 30 K

Sizemore is the heir apparent to the second base job in Detroit. With the numbers this kid puts up, Detroit is probably going to let Placido Polanco go ahead and walk. He's got an incredibly good bat for the second base position- he'll be above league average, with gap power, decent contact rates, good discipline and an okay glove- nothing spectacular, but he's going to make a good living in the major leagues.

6. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Erie Seawolves, 24 years old

5-2, 4.10 ERA, 68 IP, 7.81 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.06 K/9

The Tigers system starts getting a whole lot fuzzier after #5. I thought I'd include Alfredo Figaro here because… well, he's a solid arm, at least. His numbers aren't incredibly flashy, but he is what he is- a solid SP prospect in a system with little to no depth. Figaro has a good sinking fastball that he throws in the low 90's with what Baseball Prospectus 2009 calls a "promising curve and change". His stuff isn't phenomenal, but he made it through AA with a decent enough strikeout rate and a low walk rate. Figaro has a definite chance to be a #3 or a #4 starter if everything breaks right. Of course, he has to get healthy first.

7. Cale Iorg, SS, Erie Seawolves, 23 years old

421 PA, .221/.270/.358, 11 HR, 24 BB, 119 K

Like I said, this system thins out quick. Iorg's got tools, but not much else. What Iorg certainly does not have is plate discipline, and that impairs his contact ability and power. He's got a good power stroke… when he can get the bat on the ball. But until Iorg learns to take pitches, he's hosed. I will end with a happy comment though- Iorg has really turned his defense around- he now rates as a plus defensive player with a solid arm. So this season hasn't been a total washout.

8. Casey Fien, RHP, Toledo Mud Hens, 25 years old

2-1, 9 SV, 3.56 ERA, 48 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, .75 HR/9

For the life of me I don't understand why Fien isn't up. He's got a great K rate, a great walk rate, a good home run rate. He's got great control, two solid pitches (fastball/slider, I believe, though he does have a change) and still isn't in the major league bullpen. Fien is what he his- a 7th or 8th inning arm, not a shutdown guy, but a good guy to have around nonetheless.

9. Zach Simons, RHP, Erie Seawolves, 24 years old

1-1, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, .19 HR/9

This is where the system really thins out. The 9th and 10th slots could have any number of prospects, but I'm rather fond of Simons, who was obtained from the Colorado Rockies for Jason Grilli. Simons has a curve and fastball that both have plus potential, and has put up a really good strikeout rate and HR rate in AA. It would be nice if he could walk a few less batters, but he's still a decent bullpen prospect in the long term. Who knows, being traded for Simons could be the best thing that Jason Grilli has ever done for the Tigers.

10. Tyler Stohr, RHP, West Michigan Whitecaps, 22 years old

3-3, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 7.68 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, .19 HR/9

The tenth spot could have realistically gone to any number of players. I considered a slew of bullpen arms, a couple outfielders, a middle infielder and a catcher for this slot (they're my honorable mentions, if you're interested). But Stohr is a solid arm in a system desperate for prospects. He throws a fastball that sits between 92 and 94 and touches 96. His slider flashes plus occasionally, and he's got decent control.

Honorable Mentions:

RHP Cody Satterwhite: Big righty with command issues but good stuff.

OF Casper Wells: Lots of power, lots of speed, good defender, bad discipline.

RHP Brett Jacobson: Big righty with good stuff- decent bullpen arm

OF Andy Dirks: Fast, good on base skills, possible table setter or 4th OF

2B Brandon Douglas: Projects as a bench guy, good hitter but old for level

RHP Scott Green: Good power arm- stop me if you've heard this before…

C Dusty Ryan: He's still got potential as a good glove with power. Perhaps a future backup.