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Joe Girardi's Playoff Dilemma vs. the Tigers

Joe Girardi has some thinking to do, when it comes to a possible first-round playoff series with the Detroit Tigers.

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Joe Girardi has some thinking to do, when it comes to a possible first-round playoff series with the Detroit Tigers.

To me, it feels a bit premature to be talking about the playoffs (I need to see some champagne spraying, before I fully believe this is going to happen).  But not to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, who looks ahead to the postseason and speculates how each team will set their starting rotation. 

As things stand now (barring something of a collapse by the Red Sox and a surge by the Rangers), it appears that the Tigers will be facing the New York Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.  Rosenthal highlights an intriguing subplot to the series, which is that the Yankees, by virtue of having the best record in the American League, could choose how the series is scheduled.  They could opt to have an extra off-day in the middle of the series. 

What would be the advantages of that?  If they chose the extra off-day, the Yankees could skip Joba Chamberlain, who's been struggling as the team tries to figure out the best role for him while closely watching his innings.  That would also allow the Yanks to use CC Sabathia (along with Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett) one more time in a five-game series. 

But that could also help the Tigers.  Because an extra off-day would also mean Detroit could start Justin Verlander in a Game 4 (and Edwin Jackson in a Game 5). 

And if the Yankees' opted for the shorter series, without the off-day, would the Tigers have a starting pitching advantage by using Rick Porcello or Jarrod Washburn (career 2.76 ERA vs. the Yankees) in a Game 4?

Chamberlain has pitched well against the Tigers this season, however, winning both of his starts and compiling a 1.32 ERA.  So would Joe Girardi be better off using him against Detroit?  Or is Chamberlain a different pitcher now, with the way the Yankees have basically turned him into a long reliever over the past month? 

So how do you see it?  Which schedule would help the Tigers most?  Or does any arrangement that allows Detroit to pitch Verlander more than once make that an obvious answer?

UPDATE: (5:30 p.m.): Here's further explanation from the NY Times' Tyler Kepner.  The off-day in question would take place between Games 1 and 2 of the series.  If the Yankees opt for the schedule with the off-day, the division series would begin Wednesday, October 7.  With no off-day, the series would begin the next day.

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More Verlander = More Better. :)

The Yankees have handled Chamberlain so oddly – I haven’t been keeping real close track of it, but it seems if you want a pitcher to be a starter, then you start him – if you are worried about his innings, then you stretch out the time between starts instead of keeping his starts so short. Just strange.

"For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else." -- Winston S. Churchill

by Baroque on Sep 14, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm Also Confused

Could someone explain what is going on with Joba’s inning limitations? What are the Yankees’ motivations for doing this? Is it a case of Hank Steinbrenner trying to show the world he’s nuttier than his dad?

by freetz on Sep 14, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah yes, interesting dilemma.

So how many off days would JV get in each scenario?

JV in his career on 5 days rest is 21-20 with a 4.21 ERA
JV in his career on 4 days rest is 36-17 with a 3.70 ERA
Then when he gets 6+ days he’s back to being a 3.63 ERA pitcher (although the 10 days between ALCS and WS in 2006 didn’t exactly help — 6 ER in 5 IP. And these numbers are tough to believe because in 2006 he got 5 days rest between his other 2 starts and did fine.

Without overanalyzing it, I’m on the train of thought that believes any time you have a chance to throw your ace twice (even if you have to face the other team’s ace) you go for it. Win with your best, lose with your best.

by Detroit4lyfe on Sep 14, 2009 1:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pitching over Hitting: Earl Weaver Pitching is 90% of the game Tigers in 5

Tigers will win the series against the Yankees in five games with Verlander winning one of two in NY, Jackson winning one and Porcello winning the clinching game. Don’t be surprised to see the Tigers improved bullpen with Gallaraga or Washburn in spot relief.

by Marcmargolis on Sep 14, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I like your optimism

But you are also terrifying me with it. The Tigers haven’t even made the playoffs yet.

"For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else." -- Winston S. Churchill

by Baroque on Sep 14, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

same

this post terrifies me in general. but I’m paranoid.

by allikazoo on Sep 14, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 14, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly

We still have to worry about the Twinks and White Sox.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 14, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ESPECIALLY Minnesota.

It’s like one of the rules of movies – never, ever believe that the evil wizard is dead until you have personally seen him die three times – none of this “there is no way anyone could survive that fall into the pit” stuff – and even then, be suspicious. Until they are officially mathematically eliminated they will always make me nervous.

"For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else." -- Winston S. Churchill

by Baroque on Sep 14, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody is trying to jinx anything

But when we’re the overwhelming statistical favorite to win our division right now I don’t see why we can’t start being speculative with the playoffs coming shortly

by ryan_matthews28 on Sep 14, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who wanted Rios again?

"What have I seen from Rios? A lot of outs. The only batting ninth guy making $5 million was me. This mother [bleeper] is making $10, $12, $14 million, he ain’t going to be batting ninth [in 2010]. I’m going to make sure he earns his money. But right now I have to put him there because he’s struggling. Next year, if we have Rios batting ninth we’re in deep [crap] once again.’’ — Ozzie Guillen

His problem, not ours :)

by Detroit4lyfe on Sep 14, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I know I'm in the minority

And I’ve surely said this before, but I love Ozzie Guillen.

by Ian Casselberry on Sep 14, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ozzie is interesting.

I hate him one moment then love him for speaking his mind. Plus he takes intriguing boudoir photos.

by 13194013 on Sep 14, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Me too

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 14, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I spent one summer in Chicago for an internship.

You go insane. Take the number of times you hear Ozzie quotes, then multiply that by 50 when you’re in Chicago. It’s easy to see why anyone could enjoy him. While his personality has put him in hot water, it has probably kept him from getting fired at times. The Cubs are Chicago’s favorite, but they talk about Ozzie just as much as they talk about the Cubs there.

by Elfuego51 on Sep 14, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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