2010 Detroit Tigers: An Exercise in Roster Building
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 7:05 AM EDT
89 comments
[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of some off-day discussion.]
So, to get our minds off of Twins-hate season, I figured that I would write something about the 2010 Tigers roster to change the subject. Everyone around here knows that I've been of the opinion that we should sell the role players to make the team better for 2011, but I've been thinking, and I believe that we have a shot to contend next year provided DD makes the right deals. The Royals and Indians will still suck, and the Twins and White Sox will have to take a lot of risks, so there is an opening as well. So, I've decided to reconstruct the roster to contend in 2010. More after the jump.
I devised a set of rules to begin with when playing with the roster. They follow.
1. The primary goal is to develop a winner. Cutting payroll is nice, but Mr. Ilitch wants a winner, and it doesn't matter what the payroll is- if the Tigers lose, we lose more money than if the Tigers win and we jack payroll by 20 MM. Why? Nobody wants to spend on a loser.
2. If we can make moves to cut payroll, we do.
3. We use every asset we have, but we do not trade prospects. The goal is to contend next year, but not at the expense of building a dynasty for 2011.
4. Sacrifices must be made. Team favorites will go in favor of prospects and free agent signings.
5. All free agent signings must be short term and cheap- I'm looking to a lot of role players to complement the core of Cabrera/Verlander/Jackson/Granderson.
6. Defense is still important, but we've also got to score more runs. So we are willing to sacrifice some defense for offense, but not much.
7. NEVER BUY BULLPEN PITCHERS. We've got enough in-house to solve all our relief problems now that DD and David Chadd spent an entire draft hoarding them. Plus, relief pitchers are volatile as is.
Expected roster for the 2010 Detroit Tigers
C: Gerald Laird (arb eligible)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($20MM)
2B: <empty>
3B: Brandon Inge ($6.6MM)
SS: <empty>
LF: Carlos Guillen ($13MM)
CF: Curtis Granderson ($5.5MM)
RF: Magglio Ordonez ($18MM)
DH: Marcus Thames (arb eligible)
BN: Alex Avila ($400K)
BN: Ramon Santiago (arb eligible)
BN: Clete Thomas ($400K)
BN: Ryan Raburn ($400K)
SP: Justin Verlander(arb eligible)
SP: Edwin Jackson (arb eligible)
SP: Rick Porcello (1.025MM)
SP: Nate Robertson ($10MM)
SP: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5MM)
RP: Bobby Seay (arb eligible)
RP: Fu-Ti Ni ($400K)
RP: Zach Miner ($400K)
RP: Ryan Perry ($400K)
RP: Casey Fien ($400K)
RP: Dontrelle Willis ($12MM)
RP: Armando Galarraga ($400K)
Total Salary: $101.825MM (not including arbitration for Laird, Thames, Santiago, Verlander, Jackson, Seay)
*league minimum is roughly $400K
Moves:
Resign Ramon Santiago at 1yr, 950K
Razor Ramon is a great bench player who deserves to stick around.
Resign Bobby Seay at 2yr, 3MM
Ladies and gentlemen, the likely closer for the 2010 Detroit Tigers. A reliable relief pitcher who doesn't always give us heart attacks. Not Joe Nathan, but cheap and reliable.
Trade Marcus Thames for prospects
Yes, this is the first major sacrifice. But Thames is getting very expensive very quickly, and this is an easy way to save between $2-3MM.
Trade Gerald Laird (arb eligible) for prospects, Alex Avila ($400K) becomes starting C, Dusty Ryan ($400K) becomes reserve C
Another (probably) controversial move- but Laird is arbitration eligible and likely making more than $3MM next year. While stellar defensively, he's been worth the same as Avila (.9 WAR) in 300 more plate appearances. Selling him high to a team looking for a good defensive catcher could net us something nifty and could save us some cash. Plus, Dusty Ryan makes a cheap backup.
Sign Justin Verlander at 5yr, 55MM
Our first big move is locking up Verlander at a Greinke comparable contract (this one is $4MM for 2010, $6MM for 2011 and $15MM for 2012-2014). Locking up the ace is a good move, and this should save us some money in the long term while giving us another anchor to build around.
Sign Edwin Jackson at 5yr, 48.5MM
Another Greinke-style contract, Jackson takes 3MM in 2010, 5MM in 2011 and 13.5MM in 2012-2014. Lock up another building block for our future dynasty.
Sign Rick Ankiel at 1yr, 5MM
Yes, his bat's been crap. But he's got a great glove and an even better arm and that bat has upside. This is a risky move, but I think Ankiel might be willing to do it in order to regain some value. If this doesn't work out, the Tigers can always call up either Wilkin Ramirez or Ryan Streiby to play some corner OF.
Resign Adam Everett at 2yr, 3MM
Opie's been a great shortstop in the field, and I'm willing to make the sacrifice in offense here. Plus he deserves a 2 year deal- this will make sure he resigns with us.
Sign Carl Pavano to a 1yr, 2MM contract with 5MM in incentives
He's been an absolute pain for us to face. What better way to avoid facing him? Pavano is a quality innings-eating option (worth 3.5 WAR this year) and he'd fit in wonderfully in the back of our rotation.
Trade Dontrelle Willis ($12MM) and Carlos Guillen ($13MM) to the Cubs for Milton Bradley ($9MM 2010, $12MM 2011)
This move sounds absolutely nuts, and I know I'm going to get slammed for it. Sure, Bradley is a clubhouse cancer. Sure he's a health risk. But I'm willing to bet that he'll shut up on a contender. Plus he's hitting .257/.378/.397- that OBP would play well at leadoff. And we can play Ordonez and Bradley at DH/LF so they both stay healthy. We also jettison Willis, who the Cubs can rehab, and say goodbye to Guillen, who is still a competent hitter that the Cubbies can slide in RF or LF. I'd be willing to throw in up to $13MM in cash to get this deal done (Guillen's 2011 salary) as well, but I think the Cubs are desperate and that they'd take this if offered. If not, we could always just deal them Willis and dump Guillen as well.
Trade Zach Miner (arb eligible) for prospects.
This is a great idea- deal the starter to someone who needs a starter- and it also saves us on what Miner would cost in arbitration.
Offer Placido Polanco arbitration, let him walk. Replace with Scott Sizemore
Yes, everyone loves Polly. Yes, his glove is great. Yes, he makes a lot of contact. But he's an expensive player who is going to want to get paid like an expert glovesman (which he is) and an above average bat (which he is not). Some team will hand him a nice contract this winter, but we should not be that team, especially when we have the solid and cheap Scott Sizemore down on the farm. An upgrade with the bat (less contact, but good on base ability and better power) and a slight downgrade with the glove (Sizemore's slightly above average), this is a good lateral move that saves Detroit oodles of bucks next year.
Move Jeremy Bonderman to the bullpen
Remember when I called Bobby Seay the closer of the future? I may have lied. Bondo may never regain all his stuff and he may never be able to start again. But if he gets his slider back, he may be a decent shutdown closer for the Tigers.
Prepare to have a revolving door in the bullpen
Not a move in and of itself, but we have so many good relief prospects we can afford to mix and match beyond the big four (Seay, Bondo, Ni, Perry). To start out with, I recommend Armando Galarraga taking Miner's old job, Casey Fien grabbing a role in the 'pen and Alfredo Figaro working in mop-up relief.
The DemonDeaconsBaseball proposed 2010 Detroit Tigers Roster
C: Alex Avila ($400K)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($20MM)
2B: Scott Sizemore ($400K)
3B: Brandon Inge ($6.6MM)
SS: Adam Everett ($1.5MM)
LF: Magglio Ordonez ($18MM)
CF: Curtis Granderson ($5.5MM)
RF: Rick Ankiel ($5MM)
DH: Milton Bradley ($9MM)
BN: Dusty Ryan ($400K)
BN: Ramon Santiago ($950K)
BN: Clete Thomas ($400K)
BN: Ryan Raburn ($400K)
SP: Justin Verlander ($4MM)
SP: Edwin Jackson ($3MM)
SP: Rick Porcello (1.025MM)
SP: Nate Robertson ($10MM)
SP: Carl Pavano ($7MM)
CL: Bobby Seay ($1.5MM)
SU: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5MM)
SU: Ryan Perry ($400K)
LOOGY: Fu-Ti Ni ($400K)
MU: Casey Fien ($400K)
MU: Alfredo Figaro ($400K)
MU: Armando Galarraga ($400K)
Total Salary: $109.575MM (down from 115.085MM in 2009)
Flame away!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Projected Lineup
DH Bradley
LF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
CF Granderson
RF Ankiel
C Avila
2B Sizemore
3B Inge
SS Everett
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 20, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
its a bad move to put Magglio in LF
he’s played his entire career in RF.
by Detroitchik on Sep 21, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be okay with Pavano, but other than that, I do not like the other changes. Milton Bradley is an awful major leaguer and would be out of baseball within the next two years if I could control his career path. I have never really heard any great things about Ankiel, so that would get a huge “meh” from me. And honestly, I could care less how Laird hits, I think his defense is a huge part of this team. Avila can not do what he does.
I see no reason in predicting next year’s team at this point, considering there are always unforeseeable changes that happen in the offseason. Like Laird, Everett and Jackson.
I don't have a signature.
by Kmann on Sep 20, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
why on earth would we want milton bradley?
the cubs don’t even want his douchey attitude.
by allikazoo on Sep 20, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bradley is a means to an end
Acquiring Bradley does give us what you call a douchey attitude, but it also allows us to save 16 million dollars. Bradley will probably be as effective as Guillen, but the Cubs would likely be willing to pay the extra 5MM to Guillen to shut up and take Willis contract. And Bradley comes here as a player who knows he’s on notice- if he runs his mouth, Detroit cuts him and eats the (significantly smaller) amount he’s owed.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 20, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't like the idea of bringing that into our club
seriously, he’s suspended for the shit he pulled this weekend. nobody needs that. I’m sure there’s another bat that’ll be on the market.
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But not a bat that allows us to cut 16 million bucks of payroll
He was reasonably well behaved with Texas as well, and he’s a bounceback candidate with the bat (as is Guillen).
Also remember that Bradley has been painted as one of the biggest reasons that the Cubs have collapsed this year- the city hates him, his manager hates him and the team hates him. I’d bet he won’t be as much of a nuisance on the next team he plays for.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not gonna talk me into wanting him on our team, sorry
based on what you just said, I can’t fathom ANY team thinking “ooh, let’s get one the most hated guy in baseball right now aside from AJ pierzynski!”
I’m pretty sure we can do better than that. if anything, Ryan Raburn deserves a shot at being full time in LF. talk about saving some dough.
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can still try to talk you into it
:)
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like I said
keep polly and move raburn to LF. that still saves some money. there’s my input, have fun with your buddy milton.
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with alli on this one
I just can’t see it (trading for Bradley) happening nor would I understand it.
by Detroit4lyfe on Sep 21, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with alli...
Raburn has earned a shot at that LF spot.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
by madpoopz on Sep 21, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want Bradley either, but I think you're misunderstanding the point.
What no one wants is an incredibly overpriced headcase of a left handed pitcher. The Tigers are stuck paying Guillen and Willis unless they are moved, and most teams are not going to take those contracts on unless they get to dump some unwanted salary in return.
Oh, and Raburn absolutely stinks in LF! He’s had a decent year offensively, but he’s a defensive liability that I would just as soon be done with let alone play him in the field every day.
by Mushy on Sep 21, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't have said it better.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'd bet he won't be as much of a nuisance on the next team he plays for."
So thought the Expos, Indians, Dodgers, Padres, Athletics, Rangers, and Cubs. 7 clubs in 10 seasons, with extreme durability issues. His career high games played was 141 in ‘04 (.786 OPS). After that he’s only been above 102 games played only TWICE. Red flags all over the place.
It is just highly unlikely that the Cubs are even going to be able to trade Bradley. No team is going to take on $21MM for the next two years considering his performance and attitude. At least not a team with a rational front office. I’d expect for him to be released and signed to a major league minimum contract (IF someone even takes a chance on him) while the Cubs foot the rest of the bill.
by ryan_matthews28 on Sep 21, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
He was incredibly well behaved with the Rangers and won a division title with the Athletics (clearly he wasn’t that much of a bother).
So no.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incredibly well-behaved Bradley (clearly not that much of a bother):
While with the Rangers in ’08, Bradley attempted to confront Royals television announcer Ryan Lefebvre in the press box after a game due to what he believed were unfair comments made on the air. Texas manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels chased after him and stopped Bradley before he got to Lefebvre.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3438827
Bradley was traded from the Athletics to the Padres in ’07 because of his bitter public disagreement with A’s general manager Billy Beane and numerous incidents.
http://www.examiner.com/a-184312~Is_it_game_over_for_Milton_Bradley_.html
I’m just going to assume you weren’t aware of any of this.
by ryan_matthews28 on Sep 21, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's rowdy
He acts out. We get it. He also puts up what kind of numbers? And he allows us to do what with two of our biggest contracts?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Bradley’s numbers would be more impressive if he actually played full seasons. He never has after 10 now and his production this season has been terrible. The Cubs aren’t EVER going to take on Dontrelle’s 12MM contract for next year to get nothing out of him and Jim Hendry is in no position to gamble on Carlos Guillen’s contract for the next two seasons (especially with Jake Fox on the roster to replace him). This will never happen and it’d be a bad move by the Tigers on top of that, payroll relief or not.
by ryan_matthews28 on Sep 21, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's another thing to consider
Willis and (unless I’m mistaken) Guillen come off the books at the end of next year. We’d be stuck with Bradley for two years.
http://tigersamateuranalysis.blogspot.com
by SabreRoseTiger on Sep 21, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guillen comes off in 2011
So we actually pay less next year and a million less the year after.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also disagree with dumping Polly
I think his defense and dependable bat will be sorely missed if we are bring in a kid like Sizemore.
I’m not opposed to trading Thames and Miner, though. I feel like they just don’t have a home in the lineup, and especially Zach could be put to good use for another team.
obviously I am not an expert so I’m not about to attempt to devise my own lineup out of all that, but I think Polanco is important and worth the money.
by allikazoo on Sep 20, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His bat's not dependable
He’s cost us three runs with the stick this year, and saved us ten. He may be worth three wins, but I’d take a 2.5 win player (Sizemore) at league minimum. Especially because as he gets older, the bat and defensive abilities begin to fade. When you have an expensive and aging lineup with offensive problems, you’d be foolish not to bring in a cheap young bat who won’t cost you much on defense.
Plus, the defense we’d lose at 2B would more than be made up by gains in LF (Bradley and Ordonez would be lots better than Thames) and RF (Ankiel plays CF pretty well, and should be a decent RF).
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also I'm wondering if you forgot brandon lyon?
where does he fit into your grand plans? ha
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh pooh...
Forgot… thanks for reminding me.
Offer him arbitration if he’s a type B and let him walk.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd trust him over seay based on the year both of them have had
and the fact that he has BEEN A CLOSER. :) we have ryan perry, too, with closing potential. bobby seay is fine where he’s at in middle relief.
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Closer mentality
Meh… Seay’s been a good setup guy all year. I’d think that would translate well to the CL role. If not, give Bondo a shot.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How does corner outfield defense make up for a lack of defense at 2B?
They handle different kinds of plays.
http://tigersamateuranalysis.blogspot.com
by SabreRoseTiger on Sep 21, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Evaluation of defensive unit as a whole
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley and Ankiel
I have to side with alli on the fact that there is no way you can bring in Bradley even if it saves us money in the long run. Keep in mind he wasn’t just suspended for things he said this weekend. What he said this weekend was merely the straw that broke the camels back. The last time I checked Detroit fans can be hard on a guy if they don’t like him and the first time Bradley gets booed it’ll be over.
As far as Ankiel goes, I would rather go into spring training with Raburn, Thomas Rameriez and Kelly competing for the LF job. In particuler I think Raburn has done enough to earn a shot and I certainly would hate to see us throw 5 million (or more) at a high risk/high reward guy.
I am glad someone else is on board with moving Bondo to the pen. I think they bring Lyon back. Polanco needs to accept arb to come back otherwise I don’t bring him back. Same with Laird. No to Pavano (he won’t get to pitch against us and we are the only team he consistently beats).
To be a hundred percent honest, I have been thinking about this a bit lately and I would be fine if we head into next year filling all roster spots with in-house options. After 2010 we lose Robertson, Willis and Bondo from the payroll (and possibly Maggs, who else is looking forward to counting plate appearences again).
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on Sep 21, 2009 7:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For the most part, I'm with you on this.
Especially in regards to letting Polanco, Laird, and Lyon go somewhere else. Sure, they all have value, but they are also going to be more expensive than they are worth. With Polanco, its easy to be sentimental, but the right business decision is to let him go. I think Sizemore has proven himself ready, and what’s the point of a farm system if not to produce cheaper, younger alternatives to expensive veterans?
I don’t know if you left him off on purpose, but what about Washburn? Since you didn’t mention him, I assume he is let go. Correct me if I’m wrong, but he projects to be a Type B free agent, so I say offer arb and let him walk. My guess is he doesn’t want to spend much more time in Detroit after the way this season has gone. And he’s probably due for a nice contract this winter from someone else.
As far as Bradley is concerned, I’m inclined to agree with DemonDeacons on this one. I think we saw the worst of Milton Bradley this year, and I have a hard time believing he could be this bad next year. From a business standpoint, I think this could be a very good move. It would save us a lot of money, and his bat has more upside than Guillen’s does. As bad as Bradley has been this year, he is still roughly league-average, which is more than we can say for Carlos. Add in the fact that Bradley is three years younger than Guillen and had a phenomenal year last year, and I think he could be a good pick-up, provided that the Tigers make it clear that he is expendable and on a very short leash. I’m almost entirely indifferent to Rick Ankiel, though I’m inclined to think that he’s worth a risk.
by Dberg on Sep 21, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, do we offer Huff arbitration? And what about Rodney?
I suspect not in Huff’s case, since he projects to be Type A. I definitely think we should offer Rodney arb and let him walk. If so, we have the potential for four supplemental round picks (Polanco, Lyon, Washburn, and Rodney- all Type B free agents), which would be pretty exciting.
by Dberg on Sep 21, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No to Huff
Yes to Rodney if he’s type A or B. Why did I keep missing Arby guys?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting that you brought up Rick Ankiel
Where is Dontrelle Willis in all of this? Could he be turned into a hitter ala Ankiel?
by NCDee on Sep 21, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's trading him to the Cubs for Milton Bradley
http://tigersamateuranalysis.blogspot.com
by SabreRoseTiger on Sep 21, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No to Bradley, no to Pavano, no to Laird. Everything else looks okay.
You can’t quantify catchers that easily, and Leyland wants to keep Laird around. It would be nice to slowly transition from Laird to Avila, if that is what the fates dictate (we still have yet to see if Avila can stick—he’s in too small a sample size right now).
I’d like to keep Lyon as the closer, but I thought sure I was the only one who thought Bonderman could be transitioned into a setup man. I don’t want Armando in the ‘pen. If he doesn’t win a rotation spot outright, he should start the year in Toledo and get called up when someone in the rotation gets injured (you know that’s gonna happen).
Also, what are you doing with Zumaya? I know he’s probably the most loathed Tiger around these parts nowadays, and I’m probably the only one who doesn’t hate him, but you still have to do something with him. Contrary to popular belief, he’s not a free agent, and he still has minor league options. Are you sticking him in Toledo for the time being?
http://tigersamateuranalysis.blogspot.com
by SabreRoseTiger on Sep 21, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and if you get rid of Polanco...
…You’d better replace him with the same type of hitter (i.e. a good bat-handler who doesn’t strike out), otherwise we don’t have a #2 hitter. I don’t know that much about Scott Sizemore, but I don’t believe he fits this description.
http://tigersamateuranalysis.blogspot.com
by SabreRoseTiger on Sep 21, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's a bit concerning to me that a lot of people seem to think that sizemore's gonna get called up
and be perfect from the get go. almost nobody is. the big leagues are quite different from the minors.. I think we still need a veteran (Polly) or at least someone trustworthy (Ramon?) around for another year.
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think anyone is assuming he'll be perfect.
But we do think he’s earned a shot. If we let Polly go and things don’t go well with Sizemore? We would still have Ramon.
by Dberg on Sep 21, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a stretch to think that he'll even be effective...
they’re called prospects for a reason afterall.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
by madpoopz on Sep 21, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true,
but Sizemore isn’t an untested prospect with “raw” talent fresh from a draft. He’s in his early-mid twenties with several years of minor league experience in which he excelled at the highest levels. He’s shown good plate discipline, good contact skills, and good power. He’s competent in the field, though he will probably never be as good defensively as Polly is. But as I asked earlier, what is the point of having a farm system if you don’t give your young guys the chance to step and take over for the expensive veterans? Sizemore was one of the three best players in the Tigers minor league system last year (along with Crosby and Avila), and he has earned this chance.
by Dberg on Sep 21, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+5
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
They have the ability to be effective minor league players- that’s why they’re called prospects.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ordonez has turned into a high OBP guy
And Zoom is in the bullpen mix.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not seeing a winning team
You say you’re trying to make a winning team in 2010 as opposed to building for the future, but I’m not seeing a glaring move that makes us any better next year than we were this year. You’ve let go of Lyon & Rodney (assuming so, since you left them out of this whole equation), and then you want to get rid of Polanco and Laird. That’s four of our better players from this season. Bradley is your only deal that I see helping this team offensively — albeit it’s definitely a risky move — but I just don’t see how this makes our team any better.
Now, I agree with you about not spending big money on relievers, so I’m okay with not bringing Lyon and Rodney back, especially with our depth there in the system, but if we want to win in 2010 we’ll have to keep the nucleus of the 2009 team (and I include Polly in that and I think I include Laird) and make some bigger moves than acquiring team cancer Milton Bradley, Rick Ankiel, Carl Pavano, and having Bobby Seay as our closer. I kind of like the idea of trading Laird high, but why prospects? Let’s get someone who can help us in 2010 if that’s the goal of this post. Who could we get in return for him that could help us next season?
I don’t like the idea of Pavano either. I don’t think he eats innings because this is the first season since 2004 that he’ll have thrown over 200 innings and he’s not good. Yeah, we wouldn’t have to face him if he was on our team, but if he didn’t play us his numbers would be that much worse.
I would love the Ankiel signing, even more if we could somehow get him a little cheaper, but that’s probably my favorite part of this whole post (and the fact you did it – kudos!). I’ve always been a big fan of his especially when a pitcher before he went nuts.
by Detroit4lyfe on Sep 21, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd be okay with acquiring proven players for Laird, Thames
But it’s unfair to say this doesn’t make the team better. By WAR, Avila has an equal value to Laird in a quarter of the plate appearances. Plus we’re adding 3 WAR with Pavano, at least one WAR with Ankiel, and we lose at most half a win from losing Polly. Adding Bradley also probably adds 2-3 WAR provided he rebounds to his previous level. Conservatively, that’s 6 wins right there, including defensive losses.
We don’t need big moves this offseason- the idea is to build a contender for next year with potential to build toward the future via prospects.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think it's unfair to Laird to say Avila has an equal value
Avila seems like he is going to be a better hitter than Laird, for sure, but the kid hasn’t even played an entire season yet. I understand you’re going by what we’ve seen so far, but I’m just skeptical that over a full season Avila’s “value” which I guess you’re basing off WAR will be equal. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
by Detroit4lyfe on Sep 21, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
We may be able to get Ankiel at a lower price- consider the 5MM tag the highest I’d go.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
touche
I mean I’d be okay with 5 million I think, but definitely would prefer it to be lower
by Detroit4lyfe on Sep 21, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Polly can be allowed to walk...
his numbers are way down average wise and the talk is he will lose athleticism at 2b because of age, but think about this. Polly’s great defense isn’t really attributable and ability to do the right thing aren’t really attributable to any sort of special physical ability. Placido Polanco is the smartest player on this team. Hands down. He knows what to do with the ball when he’s at the plate. Most times he succeeds. He does the little things that don’t show up on the statistical side as well. Such as his defense. He’s a great 2b because he knows the scouting reports and always makes sure he’s in the right spot. Being athletic isn’t part of Polly’s game. Being smart is. How many times have we sat and watched a game, heard the smack of bat sending the ball on a liner to right, and than just so happen to see Polly snag it without having to move? Smarts does that, not athleticism.
Polly also is a great locker room guy also. How many times have you seen Polly on the field, sitting on the bench, doing a post-game interview, and not have a smile on his face. He’s just a relaxed player and that is good for a team.
It’s pretty silly to think that a rookie player is gonna come up to the majors and be effective with the bat and glove all season. Everything about the majors means making adjustments to your game. Adjustments take time. If you want to build the future let the kid come up and learn from someone who is really good at that position.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
by madpoopz on Sep 21, 2009 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
another thing I don't get....
why move Maggs from RF to LF?
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
by madpoopz on Sep 21, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
LF is a little less strenuous than RF, plus Ankiel has a better arm.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
based upon the messes we've had in LF this year
you’d think the opposite. ha
by allikazoo on Sep 21, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Also lends some stability.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another thing I forgot...
get rid of Thames, let Guillen be the FULL TIME DH, and Raburn can be the LF/RF.
Theres my last thought in a nut shell. =)
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
by madpoopz on Sep 21, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not too shabby, but...
But actually, the move that I would be most hesitant to make is the contract extension to Edwin Jackson. Guy isn’t a free agent until 2012, so I’d be willing to offer him arbitration heading into 2010 with an eye on locking him up heading into 2011. Yes, this brings with it the risk of him not signing, and preferring to pitch one more year under arb. before becoming a free agent in 2012, but I think that DD might hesitate to add another long-term, back loaded pitcher contract next year, while he still has Robertson, Bonderman and Willis on the payroll. Sign Verlander for 2010, sign Jackson for 2011.
Also, I would keep Laird around for another season and have him platoon with Avila more. Dude should win a Gold Glove this year with the amount of runners he’s thrown out. Polly arbitration offer is the right move, so is re-signing Everett. Letting Thames go is palatable. I’m not on board with your free agent ideas, but I haven’t put in enough thought to come up with other options, so I’ll withhold judgement for the moment.
by Grand Cards on Sep 21, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great plan. I like it. I especially like the Pavano signing, the re-signing of Santiago, and the re-signing of Everett.
However, my biggest concern with this plan is the bullpen. I am also of the mind that big ticket bullpen signings are a poor value, but this projected bullpen lineup smells a bit like gasoline to me. I would like to see Dave offer arbitration to Rodney and Lyon, and if neither takes it, go out and get a decent set-up man for less than $5 million. I think we need one more reliable veteran arm in the ‘pen to go along with Seay. I really don’t like Galarraga in the ‘pen. I’d definitely be ok with trading him or putting him at AAA until he figures it out.
I don’t think we need an Ankiel-type player, though I love his D. I’d be ok with keeping Maggs in LF, Raburn/Clete in LF, and Guillen or Bradley as DH. I would much rather spend $3-5 million re-signing Polly than adding yet another OF. Sizemore still has yet to hit big-league pitching, so I’m not ready to bet the season on him. Sometimes even “sure thing” prospects struggle when they make that big jump to The Show (remember Alex Gordon’s rookie year?)
A lifelong Tigers fan
by ewild on Sep 21, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
On the whole I like it. I’m a fan of Avila, I think offloading Polanco is a smart move (though I’ve got nothing but love for the man), and I like the pitching core.
What gives me the most trepidation? Gary Sheffield. His specter hangs over any “clubhouse cancer” we may look at, and right now Milton Bradley is that cancer.
by Joshsteich on Sep 21, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
will post defense of Milton Bradley soon
At work and have class until 3…
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Scott Miller sums it up well:
http://scott-miller.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270335/17276840
I would love to add Bradley’s hitting to our team, but not at the cost he brings. I’ve followed his ridiculousness for awhile now, and am now convinced he will never be “manageable.” If we were talking about putting up with a Manny Ramirez-type, ok, maybe we can put up with the attitude for that kind of bat. But Bradley isn’t THAT much better than Guillen at the plate. He’s a huge injury liability, and can destroy a team from the inside out. It’s a high-risk, low return scenario. I know it might save us money, but it’s not worth the risk.
A lifelong Tigers fan
by ewild on Sep 21, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's the risk?
We save 16 million dollars next year even if Bradley shows up, pees in the Gatorade machine and never takes the field. We save a million in 2011. And if he does actually produce, he puts up great numbers.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Optimistic Opening Day Roster
C: Gerald Laird
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Placido Polanco (2-year deal)
3B: Brandon Inge
SS: Marco Scutaro (2/3-year deal)
LF: Carlos Guillen
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Singlio Ordonez
DH: Vladimir Guerrero (2/3-year deal)
BN: Ryan Raburn (Expect 300+ ABs)
BN: Alex Avila
BN: Ramon Santiago
BN: Clete Thomas
SP: Justin Verlander
SP: Edwin Jackson
SP: Rick Porcello
SP: Nate Robertson
SP: Armando Galarraga/Jeremey Bonderman
CL: Brandon Lyon (2-year deal)
RP: Fu-Te Ni
RP: Bobby Seay
RP: Ryan Perry
RP: Zach Miner
RP: Joel Zumaya (LAST CHANCE), IF
RP: Armando Galarraga/Jeremey Bonderman
-Expect Willis to be released unless he has an impressive spring training.
-For Galarraga and Bonderman, it comes down to one being the 5th starter, and the other one getting predominantly garbage relief time.
-Raburn will be a super utility man and get a lot of playing time all over the outfield if he continues on the way he has this year.
by ryan_matthews28 on Sep 21, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Too much money
You pay for Laird’s arbitration raise, Scutaro’s career year, Guerrero’s reputation and Brandon Lyon’s imagined ability to rack up saves. Add extensions to Verlander/Jackson and you’re paying waaaaaaaaay too much.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's possible
While I believe it would be prudent to extend Verlander after this year, I’d wait another on Jackson. After the disaster extensions of Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson, Dombrowski has to be at high alert. Lyon on paper is essential for stability in the bullpen. Scutaro > Everett, minimal cost difference. Vlad is a reasonable possibility considering the state of the free agency market. Comes down to what Illitch approves in the end, he wants a ring.
by ryan_matthews28 on Sep 21, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, here goes...
Gotta disagree bigtime on the Guerrero pickup. We already have a good value at DH (Thames), and Guerrero will cost more than he’s worth. I love what Marcus can do against lefties and/or as a pinch hitter.
The decision I struggle with the most is Laird. If Illitch is willing to flip the bill for another year or two of Laird, then by all means, let’s do it. Avila is great, but still has some holes in his swing against lefties, and no one calls a better game and throws out runners better than G-money. It’s no coincidence our pitchers have done so much better since he came to town. There’s no question he makes us better, but I don’t know how willing Illitch is to open up the checkbook that much more.
C: Alex Avila
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Placido Polanco (1-year deal to transition Sizemore)
3B: Brandon Inge
SS: Adam Everett (1-year deal until Fields or Iorg are ready)
LF: Carlos Guillen
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Magglio Ordonez
DH: Marcus Thames/Clete Thomas
BN: Ryan Raburn
BN: Dusty Ryan
BN: Ramon Santiago
BN: Clete Thomas
SP: Justin Verlander
SP: Edwin Jackson
SP: Rick Porcello
SP: Nate Robertson
SP: John Smoltz/Carl Pavano/Casey Crosby
CL: Brandon Lyon
SU: Bobby Seay
SU: Jeremey Bonderman
RP: Ryan Perry
RP: Fu-Te Ni
RP: Zumaya/Figaro
RP: Casey Fien
A lifelong Tigers fan
by ewild on Sep 21, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is pretty good
Crosby isn’t ready, while Sizemore is, but otherwise this is an okay roster.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby
I know he’s only 21 and has missed some time with the surgery and all, but do you think Crosby will be ready as a mid-year callup if we have a starter go down? Or would you peg him as a pretty sure thing as a september callup only? Also, is there room in the Casey Crosby fan club? ‘Warden’, perhaps?
- If I were Dave, I wouldn’t plan on Armando factoring into next year’s team. If he really turns some heads in spring training, then that’s great, but I wouldn’t plan on it.
- I would love to see Smoltz come finish his career in Detroit if the price is right.
A lifelong Tigers fan
by ewild on Sep 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No chance we call up Casey
It would be insane- his secondary stuff still needs tons of work, and he could use seasoning above Lo A ball. He might get a September callup or a spot start, but that would be it
I’d see Armando as a 6th starter or a swingman type- either would work pretty well for him.
Smoltz in Detroit wouldn’t be a bad idea… we could probably afford him, but the risk might not be worth it.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 21, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoltz’s ERA in the AL this year: 8.32
Smoltz’s ERA in the NL this year: 3.21
That guy is never pitching in the AL again.
by Ian Casselberry on Sep 21, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
Yeah, good point. I just love the storyline:
The Michigan boy who got drafted by the tigers finally gets a chance to play for them more than 20 years later and finishes his career by winning a world series ring in front of friends and family. Poetic, no?
He’d be a huge hit in Michigan, and our rotation would be ridiculous. But yeah… I can’t see him coming back to the AL.
A lifelong Tigers fan
by ewild on Sep 21, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really know what I'm talking about but this fun to think about.
I’d say …
C Avila,
1B Cabrera,
2B Sizemore,
3rd Inge
SS JJ Hardy
RF Maggs
CF Granderson platoon with Marlon Byrd or some “AAAA” centre fielder from another org. with good splits vs. lefties with average/above average defense if such a player exists
LF Raburn in platoon with Don Kelly or Thomas …
SP Verlander, Jackson, Porcello, Bonderman, Brett Myers
Pen: Seay, Ni, Perry, Chris Capuano, Robertson, Fien maybe Willis
Could Hardy be gotten for Laird straight up? They will need a cathcer and starting Avila with Ryan backing up appears to definatley be an instant upgrade based on WAR #’s. If Hardy bounces back … frigg (4+ WAR at SS in 07,08)… and his trade value isnt raising since being called up.
Could Myers market value drop because of being injured this year and be gotten cheap? (I have no idea if he is still as good as two years ago but still only 29).
by drew3434 on Sep 21, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Doubtful...
But maybe Hardy for Laird/Miner?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 22, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish they would
when does a young, good defensive SS with two years of above average offense at the position become availible when his value is as low as it can be? Its cool that despite his horid numbers Iorg still gets raving reviews but even giving Hardy a 2-3 year deal if he shows signs of offense in April would be nice … they could always trade him if Iorg gets it together. Otherwise I am behind an Everett re-signing as his defense has contunually improved throughout the year … NO SCUTARO … please … Isn’t trading for Renteria after a career year enough to sour people on 32 (or whatever) yr old SS?
by drew3434 on Sep 22, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy for Laird/Miner/Iorg/Cash?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 22, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats too much
no Iorg … I’ll take a year of Everret or someone else above avaerage defensively to give Iorg more time … nobody, except for the stats, seem to say anything except that he is going to be really good … I am starting to get sold on Laird being undervalued by Fangraphs on account they don’t have stats for Cathcers defensively … I think Laird and not one of the better prospects should be enough otherwise no deal … I am thinking they can’t be expecting to get too much on accunt of Hardy still strucggling and nowhere to play him unless they want to move him to 3rd.
by drew3434 on Sep 26, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My lineup- love Bradley- hate Seay as closer
C- Avila, Ryan
1b- el martillo
2b- polanco (if he doens’t accept – Sizemore) We need the D and clutch hitting because I am aftraid we will keep the Inge, Laird, Everett low scoring lineup together, has anybody noticed when these 3 start together we average less than 3 runs, not a coincidence, I bet it is 2 runs against rights but old Smokey will keep running them out there, I bet in the playoffs they start every game and we score 1 or less 75% of the time.
SS – Scutaro or anybody but Everett (no way on guy with negative VORP, he is killing us), actually I would rather have Iorg , he fields better and at least he has speed and power, I would take 200 K’s over everett popping up within 2 pitches, 80% of the time.
3b- Inge ( I would try to trade him and go with jarish,rayburn if he could field better or somebody else in trade for Thames or Laird) Had enough of the 220 BA with tons of strikeouts, I doubt anybody would take him unless we paid 50% of his salary though so more than likely we are stuck with him.
RF- Mags- stuck with him, hopefully is mediocre and doens’t suck
CF- Granderson (would platoon him mostly against lefties- Rayburn, Wilkin)
LF- cheap free agent, Wilken, Clete, Kelly or another minor leaguer
DH- Bradley ( guy can hit but gets hurt when he tries to play field (no more than Guillen by the way-minus the steriod years), plus I have been to wrigley they are drunks and yell out the n-word all the time, I’m not black but I am sure it would piss me off if I was), plus we are getting him for free- I doubt they are dumb enough to take D-train and Guillen but if we throw in 13 million they might go for it. He is a huge upgrade over Guillen at DH and a much better fielder, + he gets hurt less and paid less, this is a no brainer. I just don’t see them taking both D-train and Guillen. If I had to get rid of one it would be Guillen, they might go for that straight up if they are dumb. I think they would do the d-train since he makes less money. I would think in the open market guillen wouldn’t get more than 1 million, D-train min so financillay taking dtrain for a year would make more sense. Maybe we can go with a d-train-nate combo.
SP- Verlander, Jackson, Porcello, minor leaguer/Figaro-Nate, 5th starter- cheap free agent, Povano , Garland , penny, somebody else on incentives.
Relievers – everybody back minus Seay
Closer- either Lyon or Rodney- sorry we need a good one, it was a disaster with Todd jones and Seay can barely get out lefties, he has to Todd Jones out of every apperance and usually doesn’t even pitch a full inning
Trade for prospects- would go for high potential A guys, we are set for now with some Ok prospects and need to go with some high risk , high reward guys, hopefully we can hit on one of 3 , should be able to get 1 or 2 for each of these guys.
Seay, Thames, Laird, Inge. I don’t think anybody is going to give us a top10 prospect for anybody but Thames.
by Raz74 on Sep 22, 2009 3:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Meant to say Seay is lefty Todd Jones
He has nothing, mediocre pitches , basically hopes the guy hits the ball at somebody and needs to be bailed out half his outings and that is facing mostly lefties. I respect the fact he somehow gets guys out like todd jones but IMHO he would be worse than Jones as a closer, if he has to pitch a full inning and not just matchup against lefties, I can’t see him keeping his ERA under 6.
by Raz74 on Sep 22, 2009 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way on Jackson extention
he has stunk in 2nd half, basically exactly who he was suppossed to be. Good arm , bad command, ERA 4.5 with Comeria saving him a lot of bombs. So he pitched well for 2 months and then reverted back to form. He has 2 more years under control, I would make him pitch the entire year next year and prove he has command and wasn’t a fluke. The 2 runs practically every first inning is rather irritating also. My guess he continues to pitch at the 4.5 level, then after next year offer him a 3yr , 21 million deal.
by Raz74 on Sep 22, 2009 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cale Iorg....Really?
With all of the chatter about how great defensivly that Iorg is,isn’t anyone concerned that he comitted 25 errors this year?
by JAYRC on Sep 22, 2009 8:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Errors aren't the end all stat
I’d prefer to look at John Dewan’s Plus/Minus or Fangraphs’ UZR. At his level, I’d also trust the reports a tad more than the numbers.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 22, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roster
Great idea for an article
I for one am praying that Mr. Illitch gives the green light to soak up the ridiculous payroll for one more year. Like many of you have already mentioned, several contracts that are killing us will be gone by 2011. Once that happens we should have a decent amount of cash for our hitters. Also by then you figure perhaps Crosby is in the rotation and Porcello is even better. With young stars like Weinhardt, Satterwhite and Simons more than likely helping Perry anchor the bullpen.
This year is great and next year should be interesting but 2011 will be awesome!
by JAYRC on Sep 22, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2010 Tigers
I can’t add a thing. Excellent post——for the hot stove league. In june you’ll be mother fuckin that identical lineup. That’s what makes us Tigers’ fans.
by Abe Vigoda on Oct 20, 2009 9:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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