If the Tigers have a plan...I've yet to see it
The Detroit Tigers' signing of closer Jose Valverde has caused a schism in the fanbase
There are those who believe a closer was needed, no matter the cost. They are adamant GM Dave Dombrowski made the correct move. Then you have others, the editorial team at BYB amongst them, who think Dombrowski is off his nut for spending so much money on a closer when there are several in house candidates already under team control.
Depending on your point of view, either the Tigers have a plan for contention this year and into the future, or have made several disjointed moves, trying to get younger and cheaper, while getting older and more expensive.
Let's take a quick tour of the Tigers' off season, and go over what has transpired. Let's see of there was a "plan."
1. Second baseman Placido Polanco is not offered arbitration, and allowed to walk in free agency.
The Tigers spin: They did not want to risk going to arbitration with Polanco, expecting he would receive a hefty one year deal, much more than the Tigers were willing to pay. The Tigers are apparently more than happy to play Scott Sizemore, who is younger, cheaper and major league ready.
My spin: Other than not offering arbitration, letting Polanco go made sense. Middle infielders in their mid-30s rarely age gracefully. But I wouldn't have been upset if Polanco returned for one more year if he had been offered, and accepted, arbitration.
The plan: Looks good..
2. Closer Fernando Rodney and setup man Brandon Lyon are offered arbitration, but are signed away as free agents. The Tigers lose the entire back end of their bullpen, and get a pair of sandwich picks between the first and second round of the upcoming draft as compensation.
The Tigers' spin: They did not want to give Rodney a multi-year deal, period. As for Lyon, the Tigers would have gone two years, but did not want to overpay.
My spin: Again, I don't really have an issue with the Tigers' handling of Rodney and Lyon. They wanted too much money for far too long, and the Tigers had been stockpiling bullpen arms in the amateur draft. The Tigers are already hamstrung by multi-year deals given to players in their 30s. Getting the sandwich picks was about all you could expect.
The plan: Looks OK to this point.
See if the plan remains on track...after the jump.
3. Starting pitcher Edwin Jackson is traded to the Diamondbacks for pitchers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth.
The Tigers' spin: The original reasoning behind this blockbuster trade was the Tigers wanted to get younger, cheaper players with big-time potential, who were as far from being arbitration eligible as possible.
My spin: The true Edwin Jackson is somewhere between the ace-like stud we saw in the season's first half, and the batting practice pitcher we saw in the second. Unloading Jackson for a younger, cheaper, just as good, if not better, arm in Scherzer is a trade any MLB team would make. The Tigers were selling high, and received a considerable bounty, especially when Schlereth is factored in.
The Plan: It started to look shaky with the trade of Jackson, but put stabilized when Max Scherzer arrived.
4. As part of the same deal, CF Curtis Granderson is traded to the Yankees for CF Austin Jackson and swingman Phil Coke.
The Tigers spin: Granderson had plateaued as a player, and just couldn't hit lefties. They received his replacement in Jackson and reliable bullpen arm who is a possible end of the rotation guy in Coke.
My spin: When it comes to Granderson is where the Tigers' plan, if there was one, runs off the rails.
So why was Granderson traded? To save money? That doesn't fly, because the Tigers just gave Valverde a metric crapton of cash. To get better? The Yankees gave the Tigers a bullpen arm and a top prospect for an All-Star CF still on the good side of 30. 999 times out of 1000, the team getting the established major league player "wins" this kind of trade. To get the Yankees' top outfield prospect? Austin Jackson's upside is as poor man's...Curtis Granderson.
The plan: If the Tigers' "plan" included the trade of Granderson, then it was flawed from the start.
5. Relief pitcher Jose Valverde is signed to a two-year, $14 million (with an option for a third year, pushing the contract to the $23 million range) deal to be the Tigers' closer.
The Tigers' spin: We needed to replace Rodney, and signed an established closer in Valverde.
My spin: Now the plan is shot to Hell. What happened to getting younger and cheaper? Valverde is 31 and the Tigers made him a very rich man. Why insist on young bullpen arms in the trade (and drafting them early and often) if you were going outside the system for an expensive relief pitcher? Unless there are more trades in the works, the Tigers' 40-man roster is going to have 35 relievers. (I exaggerate....but not by all that much)
Here's the most likely candidates for the Tigers' bullpen currently on the 40 man :
Eddie Bonine
Casey Fien
Phil Coke
Zach Miner
Fu-Te Ni
Ryan Perry
Daniel Schlereth
Bobby Seay
Brad Thomas
Jose Valverde
Joel Zumaya
I could throw Nate Robertson, or a long shot like Jay Sborz, on the list as well, and I know there are more major league caliber arms in the Tigers' system capable of pitching their way onto the team (Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt, to name just two). I'm sure at least one pitcher in the Tigers' system could have stepped up as a closer...for about $6 million less a season.
I agree Valverde is a good pitcher, and the Tigers are a better team with him. But how much better and at what price? From all accounts, the Tigers were pretty much bidding against themselves. They overpaid. Let's not forget relief pitchers tend to be mercurial, what you see one season is not necessarily what you'll see the next.
$7 million a season was too much money to spend on a closer...when you don't know who is going to supply the offense.
The plan: Unless the plan is to win every game 1-0....What plan?
They are in desperate need of offense, yet traded one of their biggest offensive threats in Granderson. Despite having an almost endless supply of young, big armed relievers in the system, the Tigers spent huge money on a 31-year old closer. They need more defense from their corner outfielders, yet (reportedly) show interest in 36-year-old Johnny Damon, who, if signed, would give the Tigers three corner outfielders who would be better served as full-time designated hitters. The left side of the infield was a black hole on defense, sucking in all ground balls. Unfortunately, it was an even bigger black hole at the bottom of the batting order. Despite being desperate for offense, the Tigers brought back the left side of the infield, Brandon Inge and Adam Everett, intact..
I realize the off season is far from over, and considering the Tigers overstuffed with relief pitching roster, more moves should be in the offing.
But after the signing of Valverde, I'm not sure what exactly is the thought process in building the Tigers. If there is some sort of grand plan, going by the team's actions in this past off season, it's written in pencil on the back of a wet cocktail napkin.
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Comments
You’ve summed it up nicely. Well done, Al.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
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I'm starting to think people don't like this Valverde thing...
Just a hunch. But I’m getting that impression.
As an engineer, I've never heard of the term "metric crapton"
But I will try to use it some time at work next week.
Great Summary
kudos for breaking it all down in one spot so well. Now I feel like watching Breakin’ 2 – Electric Boogaloo.
by TigerFanInCleveland on Jan 16, 2010 12:33 AM EST reply actions
I guess I'm surprised..
I thought the Tigers kept you in the loop. I’d also guess people should wait to jump off a bridge at least until the cocktail napkin is dry.
Valverde
I do not know whether the 10 Blown Saves is worth $ 14.000.000.
Why do not we save money and make closer to some young players such as Coke and Zumaya.
But no longer wondering, would not it be better to sign Sheets or Bedard instead of Valverde.
Less money spent you can still sign someone or do 1 on 1 trade
DD in a lot of situations is no-brainer
You can't break up the Granderson/Jackson trade like you did.
It wasn’t Granderson for Jackson and Coke straight up, yet that’s how you went about discussing it. The whole two sections related to that trade are incredibly misleading and useless.
That's what I said
But my posts are mysteriously disappearing…
by metatron5369 on Jan 16, 2010 4:59 AM EST up reply actions
I live!
It wasn’t just Phil Coke and Austin Jackson, we got Daniel Schlereth from Arizona (the Yankees sent Ian Kennedy).
That’s three good players for someone who couldn’t hit against lefties.
by metatron5369 on Jan 16, 2010 5:01 AM EST up reply actions
well...
This is Big Al’s breakdown, and he chose to break it down this way. If I tried to look for a serious flaw, it could be that the commentary on “The Plan” in #3 and #4 are written such that each player move happened chronologically and separately. It is as if Jackson left (“we start to shudder”), then Scherzer arrived (“whew, we feel somewhat better about losing Jackson”), then Granderson left (“wait, now two of our guys are gone? forget about scherzer. light the torches people, because the next decade is lost”). Now that may be unfair to Big Al but I like the fact that he took the time to break it down at all, and to show us his reactions.
Seriously, it’s just a another one of several ways of breaking down the deals. Up til now, it hadn’t been broken down at all; seemingly every Valverde opinion had developed in the context of the Granderson deal. We could go further and break down all of these deals into individual “fan base impact statements” that analyze the brand equity gain or loss from each acquisition, loss or contract extension of every single player. It wouldn’t be any better than the way it’s been done to this point.
by TigerFanInCleveland on Jan 16, 2010 8:07 AM EST up reply actions
I can't speak for Al
But I suspect the reason he did that were reports the Diamondbacks offered Scherzer for Jackson straight up. In November, there was a brief rumor of this. Then a writer from New York confirmed the Diamondbacks GM brought the Yankees on board. If you do not believe those reports, then 3 and 4 cannot be separated. If you do, then 3 and 4 are separate issues, basically.
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by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
thanks for the clarification
I had no idea how the D-Backs got into the mix. Good to know!
by TigerFanInCleveland on Jan 16, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
What Kurt said...
It was easier to write the piece breaking down the trade into 2 parts. My first draft had it as one entry.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience and a deputy editor at Bless You Boys.
Not to pile on
But you left out that we lost our first round pick in signing Valverde. I agree with all of your primary points and the way I feel is that I was at peace with losing one of my favorite players with the understanding that the team was going younger with an eye on contending in 2011 and 2012 (once all those bad contracts we have come off the books). The Valverde deal does make us better in 2010 but we would also be better in 2010 if we still had Grandy, EJ and Polanco versus the young players we have waiting to replace them. The cost for Valverde was way too high in my opinion regardless of other moves we may make this off-season (and I am in the boat of believing there involving excess pitching we have that will improve our offense significantly).
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on Jan 16, 2010 7:43 AM EST reply actions
this is all starting to resemble something else
But I am not going to mention it because maybe if I don’t say it that means it won’t happen. And I’m very nervous.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
Myspin
Good job BigAl. You usually have your facts go with your opionions and this blog is no exception. So, ok everyone lets play the “What if” game. What if they do get Johnny Damon, Dye, or some other veteran decent bat prefferably left handed? I’ve got to believe DD is trying to do this as we speak. If that can happen then I believe all the moves (setup) was not too bad. But, even so I realize if we got this bat, we would need even more production from Rayburn, Thomas, and whoeveris playing center field. A more extra base hitting Mags, a more healtier Carlos, and maybe Avila’s bat coming in to play and yes it could all happen. All these things need to happen in order for them to take a CL title. And, dont forget Inge, if he’s healthy all year, he, could help the bottom of the order. I know these are a lot of What if’s. But, the tigers are not the only team with what if’s. Look what happened to the Mets last season. Had a prety good ballclub on paper but injuries and questionable moves derailed them. You’ve got to put 25 players in a bag and hope none of them get hurt, they play good defense, and have a team chemistry to pick each other up when the other doesnt perform. If we can still get a decent bat, I feel with our pitching we have a chance. A better chance then 2009? That remains to be seen. We’ll know by the end of May. PLAY BALL!!!!
Summary of offseason moves
Gone: polanco, granderson, Edwin Jackson, Lyon, Rodney and 2010 first round pick
total 2010 savings: $25m
here: Thomas, scherzer, schlereth, coke, Austin Jackson, valverde and 2 2010 sandwich picks.
Total 2010 costs: $11.5m
overall my guess is the tigers wanted organizational depth, cheaper (talented) team control players. It’s also seems they are looking to fill roles for next year: sizemore, Austin Jackson, scherzer, valverde and coke to take polanco, granderson, Edwin Jackson, Rodney and Lyon atbats/innings.
It appears most people would have liked tigers to replace Rodney with an in house option (like sizemore for polanco) but the valverde signing comes down to the tigers 1. Overvaluing the ninth inning (saves, closers etc) and 2. Thinking none of their stockpiled relievers could close next year.
by TigerFaninDC on Jan 16, 2010 9:03 AM EST via mobile reply actions
good summary
and solid assumptions.
What I don’t like is this:
1) Tigers overvaluing saves, but not the need for a shortstop who gets on base or a designated hitter who hits the ball or a center fielder, period. Some of whom could have been acquired earlier in the offseason with this money the Tigers ‘suddenly’ found available
2) Position players are more valuable than relievers but lower priority
3) The move to build organizational depth followed up by a move that cuts organizational depth
The plan the Tigers appeared to set out was saving money, building organizational depth and competing in 2010 while learning more information to be used in the 2010-11 offseason. With this signing, I don’t think that is the case any more.
If the Tigers still plan to cut their budget, this signing, coupled with the hope of re-signing Verlander, seriously cut into available funds for position players, and that is an incredible weakness in the organization and where money will need to be spent next offseason.
All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
The thing about money is...
Presumably, Ilitch has the final say about money. Now, maybe he’s just rubber-stamping whatever DD says the Tigs need. Maybe. But he knows his way around a checkbook, you don’t roll up $1.4 billion in net worth (per Forbes) if you don’t.
So with that said, all the hand-wringing going on around here about the Tigers’ cash situation is based far more on our assumptions about the team’s financial state than anything we actually know to be true. If the Tigers were really looking to have a firesale (I’m sure we could have gotten even more relievers from the Sawx for Cabrera, for example), they would have. If the Tigers were really so cash-strapped that they totally had to torpedo their chances of contending in the AL Central in 2010, they would have. But clearly, at some point in the past couple weeks they decided they had some money to spend on short contracts that will stabilize the team in the near term while the youngsters get ready. Given Ilitch’s cash reserves, I guess I’m not sure why that worries us so much.
it's also based on Dombrowski's quote about making adjustments
“The reality is, no matter what, we needed to make some adjustments,” Dombrowski said. “In almost any scenario, it’s a necessity. But it’s also one of those where we’re in a very good situation with a quality owner that projects to have a really solid payroll as we go forward. But at some point, adjustments needed to be made, and this was the time to do it for us.”
All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
That always reminds me of the cliche sitcom break-up line,
“It’s not you, it’s me.”
by StringTheory on Jan 16, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
"Adjustments"
The 2009 team was unsuccessful. It folded at the end of the season, and all year long it lost a bunch of games it should have won. Running essentially the same team out there in 2010 was not likely to lead to a better result. Granderson and Jackson were flawed but tradeable so they were the ones who had to go. That’s what I think Dombrowski means by “adjustments”.
I see...
So if you look up “adjustments” in the dictionary, the first definition is “what Major League Baseball teams do when they ’re cutting payroll,” eh? Or have I just been spending too much time at BYB lately?
The fact is, we’re assuming that the team is broke when none of us have access to any of the pertinent data. Clearly, if they didn’t think they could afford Valverde they wouldn’t have signed him. If they didn’t think he was worth more than the 19th pick, they wouldn’t have signed him. It seems like everyone here is sure they’re panicking, that they have no “plan,” whatever. We’re not used to things like this working out. If he pitches well, he’s worth it. Of course, that’s just my opinion.
thought exercise
If they had all this money, why didn’t they use it to address the fact the team failed to score runs and had black holes in three lineup spots?
If funds are as unlimited as everyone thinks, why didn’t they just pursue one of the big name, big bat outfielders? Certainly, Mike Ilitch is a billionaire and could open up his wallet. Upgrading the outfield with Holliday would have been a pretty easy move to make. Money is no object, right?
Money is no object, so they did not even try to fill shortstop with a guy who could actually get on base. Nor did they try to fill center field with a known commodity. The object is to win in 2010 right? Well, rookies up the middle and no upgrades to run-scoring potential sure doesn’t say improved team to me.
The bullpen? Probably not any better than 2009, because 2009 had a lot of back-end success.
Starting pitching? Still a known commodity for ace, but now followed by a pair of sophomores and then the lucky winners of the spring training lottery.
The Tigers could have addressed any of those issues with the resources they had, but they didn’t.
So either they have money but they are incredibly inept in using it, or they didn’t have money until just recently.
All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
My take on the Tigers' thought process...
Obviously, I could be completely wrong and they could be as incompetent as you think. We shall see.
A) Tigers let Polanco walk because he’s old and declining an they have a younger replacement who, they believe, can function at at least an equal level for less money.
B) They believe that Granderson and E-Jack have topped out (or close to it, and we almost know that to be true in E-Jack’s case), so they make an effort to trade high.
C) They don’t believe Rodney and/or Lyon are worth the money they’ll be looking for, so they let them walk.
D) They decide that, for all the promise their pen shows, it’s young and short on track record. They spend some of the saved cash on one of the NL’s better closers. They part with the pick because they believe that Valverde is worth more to the organization than the 19th pick.
E) They avoid spending more money on bats because they’re holding off until after all that bad money comes off the books after next season. If the stars align and their old guys (Maggs and Guillen in particular) put it together, which is what it would take for them to contend in the Central in 2010 anyway, they shouldn’t have needed to. If they don’t, oh well. Get ’em next year.
Now, any given fan might not agree with that thought process, but it doesn’t strike me, anyway, as an incompetent one.
You know what guys?
I bet some of you who have commented more frequently in favor of the signing could gather all your thoughts scattered across several different posts into one great coherent post of your own as a FanPost for a rebuttal. I bet that would be pretty cool and (hint) the best would probably find its way promoted to the front page.
All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I like having you around here BigAl...
So far I’m really enjoying what you have to say.
and I lost my train of thought reading the comments. Oh well, my viewpoint was well represented by the actual post at hand. No need in reiterating points I guess.
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2010 Amateur Draft
Does anyone know if the upcoming 2010 draft is thought to be weak on top tier talent? Maybe the 19th pick lost some value based on early (very early, since the college and high school seasons haven’t started yet) projections on who might be available then.
I was excited about the 19th pick, the two sandwich picks, and the 19th pick in the second round. I thought that the Tigers might still be able to follow their philosophies from previous years and pay “over slot money” for top talent and add four new names to their top 10 prospect list.
I appreciate all the feedback, both pro and con
A couple of things…
1. My first draft had the Graderson/Jackson trade as one entry. I broke up the deal into sections because it flowed a little better, the trade really was good (Selling very high on Jackson) and bad (giving up on Granderson), and there were reports Scherzer could have been obtained for Jackson straight up.
2. And yes, I did forget to mention the loss of the draft pick, which is a big point of contention. I’d been working on this post for a few hours, and had a moment of brain fade.
Then again, after reading this, some of you probably think I had brain fade the entire time I was putting this post together!
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience and a deputy editor at Bless You Boys.
To me
every move has to be viewed through the prism of “does it enhance the likelihood of the Tigers being able to sign Verlander to a long-term contract.” As such, I think showing a commitment to the 2010 team, as well as bringing in a proven guy who can help them win, is a plus. Players really don’t care about the long-term plan, they want to know the team is committed to winning. I think this move sends a good sign to the clubhouse about the teams intentions for 2010.
I agree.
The goal is to be competitive now and stock some potential for later. This staff looks solid even before we reach spring training, an improvement over years past—good rotation, some interesting middle guys, and the back end could be intimidating with Perry, that oft-injured guy, and Valverde.
Don’t underestimate Leyland’s influence in all this. I sensed his frustration with Grandy last year, and The Rollercoaster almost killed him. Leyland will keep this bunch competitive to the end. Isn’t that all we can ask for in Detroit? Go Tigers!
Baseball Geek
by StorminNormanCash on Jan 16, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Great point
Leyland’s influence on DD’s decisions has been understated. DD and Leyland have to be on the same page for the major personnel decisions, especially at this stage of Leyland’s career. Leyland has no interest in being in another rebuilding process. He came to this team ready to win, and he’ll leave as soon as DD’s ready to rebuild.
To the point that TheWalrus9 is making about Verlander, I completely agree. I wrote a FanPost referring to that a short while ago, but instead focused on Cabrera’s problems and their effect on the ability of the Tigers to keep Verlander. If Leyland agrees with DD that this team is built to win, we’re looking at a series of moves designed to that end, even if they aren’t the optimal use of team resources for the future.
2010 is Year 4707 in the Chinese Calendar - The Year Of The Tiger
by TigerFanInCleveland on Jan 16, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I actually hope the goal is to win a division for the third time in my lifetime
I could care less what Verlander thinks.
All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
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by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
agreed...
and we have a better chance with him than without him. but point definitely taken!
2010 is Year 4707 in the Chinese Calendar - The Year Of The Tiger
by TigerFanInCleveland on Jan 16, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
You speak...
as though you’re sure those two things have no relationship what-so-ever.
Again, Justin Verlander will (likely) follow the money. Nearly every single athlete always follows the money. Just look at the Pistons or the Red Wings: Ben Wallace bolts a very successful team for the Bulls because of the money.
Marian Hossa bolts for a division rival (also a very, very successful team) for money. Robert Lang left (though that was philosophical differences, but the money didn’t hurt), Mike Samuelsson left as well.
I’m sure there are other examples I am missing.
Outside Detroit, Jason Bay said he’d rather play ball in Beirut than go to Queens and play for the Mets. He’s now purchasing a place in Queens as we speak.
Vlad Guerrero went to the Angels for more money. Adam Dunn held out for the most money he could get last year (wrong year for that…). Athletes follow the paper trail — as they should.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
I 100% agree
The idea is to sign him before he heads to free agency. Once he actually hits free agency, he’ll follow the money. As such, if you’re looking to buy out a year or two of arbitration, and some free agent years, one of the things Verlander is going to look at is the direction the team is going with its personnel.
what if he intends not to sign before free agency?
Sure he could get injured and hurt his value before then, but maybe he wants to gamble that and hold out.
All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 16, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Not necessarily. If you throw him the money he’s looking for, he will sign.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Tread carefully with long term contracts to pitchers
Verlander is going to want big money and a long term deal and with good reason. But, the going rate for a guy of his ability is roughly $20 million a year on the open market. If we want to get really technical then we can do a 3 year weighted average of his WAR and apply standard age regression techniques to get his true value over a long term deal. Regardless, he’s going to get a lot of money and I’m not sure if locking up $40+ million to two players (Miggy and Verlander) is the best roster management. We’ll see what DD does. It is a big risk to lock up any pitcher to a long term deal, though. We have 3 pitchers on our team that remind us of that everyday.
by Scottwood on Jan 17, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I’m not nearly as down on the off season as others. I saw Granderson as a very good center fielder and looked forward to his at bats against righthanders, but watched way too many times last year when the opposing manager would bring in a lefty to face him at a crucial juncture. And with the current manager there was no chance there would be a pinch hitter. It HAD to happen 25 times at least. I sae trading Granderson and Jackson for 4 guys that stand a good shot of making the team as a good move.
Valverde is a different story only because it sounds like the Tigers were bidding against themselves.
However, relief pitchers are a strange, strange breed. I remember thinking, as did many commentators, that sending John Wockenfuss and Glenn Wilson to Philly for Willie Hernandez just before the 1984 season was an idiotic move. We all know how THAT turned out. Just as along time ago when Hernandez presence made Aurelio Rodrigues and (at times) Juan Berenguer better pitchers. Perhaps Valverde’s presence as closer will make Zumaya and Perry better pitchers. At 7,000,000,000.00 Valverde WILL be the closer and Zumaya was at his best when he had a clearly defined role.
It has indeed been a strange off season, but it looks to me like they accomplished their goal. When the season ended they wanted to get younger and to get leass expensive. They did. And from where I sit they got there while still fielding what appears to be a competetive team. I suspect that there will be at least two more trades, one that brings Detroit a left handed, corner outfield bat, and another that unloads one of the untradeable contracts.
And then they will once again surprise us by contenting all season long.
Good points, all
I want to see them contend today without giving away the future. It doesn’t appear they’ve hurt the club’s future, unless one considers a 34 year old middle infielder and a CF with lefthander phobia our future. We’ll know in 5 years if the loss of a draft pick hurts them. But, they sure could use a couple bats…preferably someone who can hit LHanders and RHanders!
Baseball Geek
by StorminNormanCash on Jan 16, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
one big assumption
I agree with many points in this well thought out post. And I guess that one would think that the signing of Valverde is a bad move if you’re “sure that at least one prospect in the Tigers’ system could have stepped up as a closer for about $6 million less a season”. To me that is too large of an assumption to make. Perry seems two years away while Zumaya’s health can’t be counted on, and even when healthy, he has been very hittable recently. Everyone else is unpoven. I read a lot about saves being overrated but that 27th out is the hardest one to get and not getting it and losing has a tough impact on a club mentally. There are a lot of things that I like about sabermetrics, but one thing I don’t like is that it doesn’t place an emphasis on how things affect the confidence and chemistry of a club during the season. There was a lot of interest in the Tigers trading for Milton Bradley, who i admit has had some impressive stats. The eight teams in eleven years tells me a lot more than OPS. And I think blowing games in the ninth has the same kind of draining effect on a club that a player like Bradley can have.

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