Looking for holes in the Tigers' lineup

Bumping to the front page to get some reaction -- Kurt

This originally started as a comment in Big Al's most recent post, but I realized it was getting lengthy and decided to move it over to the FanPosts, so it wouldn't take up the majority of the comments section.  

I also realize I'm much more vulnerable to reactions over here, especially since my thinking isn't exactly in line with the majority here.  Just know that we're all confused Tigers fans (some more than others), so I'm simply giving you my thoughts on what I think might be going on with the team and DD's thought process. 

First off, I want help clearing up something that is confusing me with what some fans are saying.  I want to know why some are so hung up on this notion that the Tigers were "bidding against themselves" for Valverde.  Valverde made $8 million in 2009 and had another rock solid season. Everyone needs to remember that there’s a negotiation process, not an Ebay "highest bidder wins" process when dealing with FAs (although that's not to suggest there aren't some who do only follow the most money).  

As all ball players do, Valverde has an agent who I’m sure had a specific dollar amount in mind that they would not go under, because let's face it, he’s a top reliever and was the best available. The Cardinals probably fell way below what Valverde and/or his agent expected and that’s why they were no longer in play.

Now, why the Tigers decided to actually go through with $7M is an entirely different story in my opinion, but I’ve argued and argued, over and over, again why I don’t think $7M is outlandish, and I’m sure the Tigers had boundaries on how much they wanted to spend too.  $7M was clearly worth it to them for this top reliever (and I’d be willing to bet that an earnest DD would admit that a part of him thinks they got Valverde relatively cheap compared to what other closers around the league have been making over the years).

Second, I want to go through all the positions fans probably believe are the Tigers' offensive holes, holes that most presume could have been filled with the money just spent on Valverde:

SS — The Tigers indicated that they were going to put greater stock into defense here and I don't remember much bickering last year when he was signed. Of course, we had Granderson then.

CF — Which brings me to CF.  Remember, the Tigers acquired Austin Jackson (and made him a requirement for the deal) for a reason — they think he’s going to be able to play CF.  I think CF is viewed as a hole mostly because nobody knows exactly what Jackson can produce and everyone knows what Granderson produced.  However, going out and signing another CF who we will have a better idea on how he'll produce would be counterintuitive to acquiring Jackson and pathing the way for him.

2B — The situation is somewhat similar here.  Of course, the Tigers had a chance to re-sign Polly, so going after any expensive 2B now would raise questions why the Tigers didn’t bring Polly back. I think consensus at BYB is that it was a good decision not to bring Polly back because Scott Sizemore might be ready. Bringing in anyone else would completely contradict the "Sizemore is ready" sentiments. Plus, the guys available are a) not good or b) wouldn’t be cheap and would then bring us back to "Why didn’t we bring back Polly?" (Also keep in mind that even if we wanted a certain guy, he would also have to want us).

LF — Right now we have Guillen/Raburn out there and presumably the other will DH.  As sad as it is, we’re pretty much stuck with Guillen because of HIS contract, not because we signed Valverde or traded Granderson. Signing another LF would mean we’d have to eat Guillen’s contract and/or get rid of Raburn (who had a great year last season and won the hearts of many here at BYB).  But if Guillen’s healthy and Raburn hits as well as he did last season, LF is far from a hole.

RF — Again, Magglio's bad contract is something we’re stuck with, but if he hits like he did after the All-Star break last year he’s also far from representing a hole in the lineup.

C —  This is a hole we’ll just have to deal with if we want our catcher to throw runners out. Avila showed he can mash, though, if we need to compensate for some of Laird’s lack of offense.

3B — Do Tigers fans really want to displace Inge? I feel like that would be Granderson all over again.  Also, there's a chance healthier knees might help him return to his pre-ASG form from a year ago.

So I went through seven slots and we had the same problems in all but two of them last season.  If we tried to find FAs to help in those two spots, we’d offset the whole reason why those holes exist in the first place -- because supposedly our young guys are ready to step in and take over.

To me, the $7 million per year that will be going into Valverde isn’t money that could have gone elsehwere, because there simply wasn’t anywhere else to put the money.  Anyone signed at this point would either be compromising our defense, making us worse, or displace a burdening contract.  

And we don’t even know if the Tigers are done making moves. There is no salary cap and the Tigers are currently under their payroll from a year ago, with a massive chunk coming off the books in the winter of 2010.  Who's to say that the Tigers can't still go out and sign Russel Branyan to fill the DH slot or play some corner outfield.  There’s no telling.   If we got him, will people still be complaining about Valverde? Maybe, if you're hung up on losing a draft pick (which I admit was the one thing keeping me from being on board from the start).  But  with no draft pick being a sure thing (only 5 of the past 18 first round picks for the Tigers have panned out, although I know DD has a better success ratio).  Valverde is a proven commodity.  And we still have two compensation picks not too far away from the 19 slot.    As I alluded to, the Tigers have been better at drafting during the DD era, so those two compensation picks are nothing to sneeze at. 

But I'm getting away from my initial point -- I think our bullpen had a much more glaring hole that was fixable by signing the top reliever available. Unfortunately, I think it is the other contracts, not Valverde’s, that prevent the Tigers from addressing some of the offensive holes.  And even those contracts may not prevent us from picking up another bat along the way, whether it be via sign or via trade.  For that, we'll just have to wait and see.