Morning Lede: Should the Tigers lock Justin Verlander into a long term deal?

but think if they don’t lock him up we might be watching play somewhere else after next season.

and I didn’t realize this until I broke apart his mechanics. He has very good mechanics that generate lots of velocity and put very little strain upon his throwing arm. If there are injury concerns for the guy, there really shouldn’t be outside of a freak accident. I’m just not sure how I’d go. So I’m going with 75 even though I accidentally hit the 50 mil button.

It is a tough call. Verlander was the second most valuable pitcher in baseball last year (WAR via Fangraphs), but he is only one year removed from a very difficult 2008.

Tigers have been burned by the high dollar long term contracts. $50 mil buys you 5 years, more or less.

If the starting point is the ~$8.5 or so they’ll probably end up at this year, a raise of 750K per year makes the final year worth 11.5, averaging out to 50 mil/5 years.

Would he go for that? Or is Verlander willing to take a short term deal, and try to replicate dominance for a second straight year in an effort to score a huge deal?

After all, he took a step back in 2008 before roaring in 2009. And the projections on his Fangraphs page only have him winning 15 games next year, at best (discounting the “Fans”), as well as regressing on the k/9, bb/9 and other metrics.

Turn the question around, then: Would it be in Verlander’s best interest to lock himself into a long term deal with the Tigers?

No smart pitcher in Verlander’s shoes goes for Sabathia money at this point in their careers. (And no smart agent promotes this). Right now, Verlander can probably sign for 4 or 5 years at an average of 12-15M per year. I think the Tigers would agree to this knowing that they would overpay this year and next year, but be getting a deal after that. Verlander, meantime, would be very comfortable for the rest of his life, even if he blows his shoulder out in his first inning of spring training in ‘10. If things go well, he will be 31 or 32 years old, hitting the open market, and will be able to command a 3 or 4 year deal for 20 or 25M per year. (There’s your Sabathia money).

If he waits two years – we’re talking 450 innings of 100mph fastballs – to get the big bucks, he’s insane and his agent obviously likes to gamble his 10-15% as well. There’s no way you pass up 50M or more in career earnings and hope that your arm holds out for two years so you can get 150M. That’s like playing Deal or No Deal with 8 cases on the left side and one biggie on the right.

Kurt, I love your argument about how we should be spending money. I also feel that having Verlander tied up for 5 years is a great idea on the surface, but in 2012, we might be pretty happy with a rotation of Porcello, Sherzer, Crosby, and Turner. Then we’ve got an extra 20M to add a 5th starter and some bats. 20M can buy a lot of stick.

I would try to backload it as well, given the Tigers current situation and the great amount of future payroll flexibility coming up. Maybe something like $10, $17, $18, $20. After factoring in the backloading, it comes out to about $16 million a year.

He’s the most important Tiger since Al Kaline (or has that honest potential, anyway). If the Tigers don’t give 110% to the effort to keep him and he walks in his prime, nothing good can come of it.

I can’t put a numerical value on it, but I have a hunch they’re going to throw the Brinks Truck at him. Ultimately, it’s going to come down to whether he wants to be an icon for all time in Detroit or “just” another in a long line of greats in Boston or New York.

I absolutely love the idea of having that stacked rotation that goes five deep in power pitchers. I know we don’t have the sticks, but if it’s between hitting and pitching, I’ll take the pitching all day thank you very much. Just think about those great Braves teams of the 90s.
I’m not too concerned about our future offense, because we have Cabby locked up for awhile, as well as Sizemore, Avila and a good amount of promising young OFs in Jackson, Boesch, Rayburn, Wells, and Thomas. The only real concerns are SS and 3B, and that’s nothing free agency can’t fix.

Strictly from a fan’s perspective, you shipped off the most popular position player, so signing Verlander long term would show the commitment to winning.

I think you can copy Felix Hernandez’s deal and maybe shrewd negotiations could save you 5 or 10 million.

At least based on poll results. $75 million over 4 years with some sort of option for a 5th year sounds reasonable for both parties.

Better yet, five years with an option.
8 + 12 + 20 + 20 + 20 = 80
The club has to get some benefit in exchange for eating all the risk of injury in the next two seasons. Verlander could get hurt, like so many other pitchers, and his dream of a $ 100 million contract goes up in flames. By shifting that risk to the club, he guarantees that he’ll get a monster pay day, but it should be a few mil short of what he’d get if he were to go through two more years of arbitration, then sign a big fat deal with the highest bidder. The above deal is in line with what King Felix got from the M’s- a little more, in fact.

Yes, the Tigers need more offense. And some $ 70 million comes off the books after the 2010 season. Another 13 mil comes off the books after 2011, when Guillen’s deal is done. There isn’t another huge free agent contract issue in the pipeline after that until Porcello has six years under his belt. Git r done.

With Johnson off the market for 4 years and King Felix for 5, Justin might look a whole lot prettier in two years, assuming he remains true to form. I can imagine Justin with a little cartoon character on each shoulder, one saying “Take the money and run in two” and the other saying “Long term, boy. Think long-term”. Trouble is, I don’t know which is the angel and which is the devil.

mostly because it would be an interesting off-season with both Verlander and Cabrera heading into free agency.

tigers have to lock him up for the next 5-6 yrs…i can support 5 yrs-75m..even 6 yrs for 100m..if they don’t sign him long term and he goes out and has another great season, he’s gonna hold out for the highest bidder…and Tigers don’t need to get into that..sign him now while we still have him

Give me 4 years, $50 mil.