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Verlander, Tigers discussing 5-year/$75 million, Passan reports

Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan reports the Tigers are discussing a 5-year deal worth $75 million with Justin Verlander.

In a series of tweets, Passan writes:

Baseline of deal is Felix Hernandez's 5-year, $78M deal with Seattle. Seems to have set the market for top-of-the-line young starters.

*snip*

Remember, Tigers shed a ton of money after 2010: Magglio ($18M), Bonderman ($12.5M), Dontrelle ($12M), Robertson ($10M) -- more than $50M.

*snip*

Something else to consider: Verlander's father, Richard, was a longtime union leader. He's not going to accept an below-market contract.

Update: Passan now has a story on it.

Just to be clear, the Tigers might not shed Ordonez's contract. He needs more plate appearances than he got in 2009, but fewer than he had in 2008, for the 2011 option to kick in at $15 million. If he's hitting the ball, the Tigers would be hard-pressed to argue they sat him for baseball purposes. But if he's not hitting the ball, the Tigers will save money and audition some younger corner outfielders from the 40-man roster, I'm sure.

Anyway, a deal of 5/75 sounds fair to both sides. Verlander gets quite a bit of money and a contract similar to a better, younger pitcher. The Tigers lock up their ace for the foreseeable future, or until the Yankees offer them a couple of relievers for him.  I do worry about any deal that long with pitchers. However, he seems to be reliable enough mechanically that those worries shouldn't be too great. 

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Just Get It Done!!

Give him the sixth year he wants!
Just make sure he stays in Detroit!

by DetroitTigersGeek on Jan 29, 2010 3:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Approved

It doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.

I root for the Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings and yes, the Lions.
www.twitter.com/zajareich

by ReichardZ on Jan 29, 2010 3:29 PM EST reply actions  

Yes, do this NOW,

I would love even longer but NOWNOWNOWWNOW!

by rcpratt on Jan 29, 2010 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

If Verlander gets six years,

it’s going to be an interesting 2014 off-season. Both Verlander and Cabrera would be entering the last year of their contracts.

by StringTheory on Jan 29, 2010 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

interesting indeed

That is assuming both are still Tigers

by rock n rye on Jan 29, 2010 3:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

10 + 6 = ?

If Verlander gets six years, it’s going to be an interesting 2014 off-season. Both Verlander and Cabrera would be entering the last year of their contracts.

by rea on Jan 29, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

he’s right
2010 — 1
2011 — 2
2012 — 3
2013 — 4
2014 — 5
2014 offseason would have them entering the last year of their contracts

All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com

by Kurt Mensching on Jan 29, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

The 2010 season hasn't been played yet,

so you have to think of it as 9 + 6, so he would be a free agent in 2015.

by StringTheory on Jan 29, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Please sign him

I only own 2 Tigers jerseys 1.Curtis “MY MAIN MAN” Granderson and Justin Verlander.Now down to 1 jersey(hopefully).

Cory Smith

by cmonee on Jan 29, 2010 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

Is that the successor to Fernando's "I got dis" pic?

JV: what da eff you looking at?

Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!

by ahtrap on Jan 29, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Correction...

The best beard in sports:

Amanda Beard

by Grant E. on Jan 29, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Double correction

The best beard in sports

(Get it?)

by ChrisDTX on Jan 29, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Not in the slightest

Who is this?

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 29, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Kate Hudson

A-Rod’s girlfriend. Look up the alternate meaning of “beard”. :)

by ChrisDTX on Jan 29, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

You jerk...

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 29, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Making fun of A-Rod

is the national pastime!

by ChrisDTX on Jan 30, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Why stop there?

Illitch I’m sure had a hand in that 12 year contract Zetterberg got. He’s sure not afraid to lock down a stud or two.

by 42jeff on Jan 29, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

shhhhh...

Gary Bettman and the NHL are still investigating that – and Franzen’s contract, and Hossa’s, and Luongo’s, and Pronger’s, and …

:)

"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero

by Baroque on Jan 29, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I think I remember reading the Wings contracts were ok

Hossa’s drew attention because he was signing with a new team and the contract ends when he’s 43 or something. Chris Chelios he is not. But I was gonna add below that we should give Verlander the DiPietro treatment and just make sure he retires a Tiger.

by Elfuego51 on Jan 30, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Teddy KGB

Not to nit-pick, but if you are quoting my favorite movie, gotta get it right.

I root for the Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings and yes, the Lions.
www.twitter.com/zajareich

by ReichardZ on Jan 29, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Your right....

……why did I put kenny? Oh well

by BennieBladesFan on Jan 29, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

To further nitpick...

it’s actually “pay him, pay that man his money” in a spectacularly awesome russian accent.

by davking1980 on Jan 30, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Crap

I posted this at the bottom before reading your post beating me to it. I feel ashamed, really.

by ChrisDTX on Jan 29, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

5/75 is totally worth it

Sign the contract, Justin.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 29, 2010 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

Vesting

I’m glad to finally see someone talking about Ordonez and his option without assuming that the Tigers can just sit him down to avoid the option vesting, even if he’s hitting.

(And the even worse variation on this idea is that the Tigers should release him—do that, and some other team signs him for the minimum, and then makes darn sure he gets enogh at bats to have the option vest at the expense of his former team)

by rea on Jan 29, 2010 3:58 PM EST reply actions  

I think...

That 2011 salary would be the responability of whoever picked him up wouldnt it? no?

by jpolut on Jan 30, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think so

maybe another team would pick up part of it, but i think it would be a situation like Sheffield’s. I am not positive, but that’s the way i understand it. If some one knows for sure (Kurt, Al, Mike) please weigh in.

by Detroitchik on Jan 30, 2010 3:20 AM EST up reply actions  

It's still the Tigers responsibility if they release him.

  The contract would not be terminated and it’s non-transferable. The contract is the property of the Tigers, even if they release him, and if he’s playing for another team. So the option could still vest, and the Tigers would still pay. They’d can’t trade the contract either because it has no-trade protection. Ordonez would have to waive the no-trade clause.

They’d probably want to buy out the contract before releasing him and defer the payments over the next several years, which is kind of like what the Dodgers did with Andrew Jones last year. If he’s not hitting though, it makes more sense to not play him instead.

by linuxit on Jan 30, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

based on the Frank Thomas/Blue Jays release, I don't think you're right

But if you can give me some links backing you up, i’d love to have the conclusive answer on this.

Thomas needed 376 PA when he was released. They didn’t buy out anything. They just had to pay him for the rest of the season, and there was no talk of the Jays possibly being on the line for the contract if the next team used him too much.

All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com

by Kurt Mensching on Jan 30, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Thomas and Blue Jays made a mutual agreement .

What exactly they agreed upon is the question. Agreements are never one sided either. Toronto definately bought out the rest of the 8M left in the contract. In return for that, Thomas probably gave up the option year.

by linuxit on Jan 30, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

all i know

is the contract says guaranteed, if he reaches the required number of PA’s/ games. But games with who the Tigers or some other team?

by Detroitchik on Jan 30, 2010 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

here's my reading of the CBA and talking to others

The Tigers would owe until the end of the guaranteed portion of the contract and any optional buyouts. If he was released and becomes a free agent, a new contract would be written. The Tigers would make up the difference between what the new contract paid and what their contract owed. So if they owed him 18M for this season and released him and he signed for 500k, they’d pay him 17.5M. The option would no longer exist because he would then be under a new contract.

by Kurt Mensching on Jan 30, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

oops

I wanted to say, see how smart you are.

by Detroitchik on Jan 31, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions  

That is correct, Kurt

A player can be released pursuant to Rule 7(b)(2) of the uniform players’ contract, which is incorporated into the CBA and is the format for every contract in MLB. If released, his old contract is terminated, but the old club has to pay the balance due on the contract if it’s guaranteed, which all MLB free agent contracts are. A new club would pay only a pro rated portion of the major league minimum, which is $ 400K and that gives the old club a small bit of relief.
 
For example, when the Tigers released Sheffield, he had one year and $ 14 million left on his contract. The Mets picked him up, signed him to a new contract for the minimum, and paid him a pro rated share of $ 400K, so the Tigs were on the hook for just over 13.6 million.

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 31, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I do think this is a good deal, but

I wonder what happened to not discussing it until after this season is over.

by allikazoo on Jan 29, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions  

maybe I misread/heard

I thought it was something like, he wanted to get this year’s deal made then talk about it but not during the season. too lazy to find quotes. I just got the impression it wouldn’t be happening for awhile

by allikazoo on Jan 29, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

ah found it
Right now, though, Verlander wants to take care of his 2010 contract first before moving on to a longer deal.

from a Beck article

by allikazoo on Jan 29, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Perhaps he got new information

that led him to believe he’ll lose in arbitration. Or maybe we’re offering closer to 9.6 this year as part of the extension.

by StringTheory on Jan 29, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The timing of all this . . .

. . . is that Seattle signed Hernandez a day or so before Verlander’s comment about not talking long-term until the season is over. I suspect that after both sides had a few days to think about the implications of the Hernandez signing, a deal seemed a lot more doable. The Hernandez deal ought to settle this, unless one side or the other is lacking in sense—Verlander can hardly claim he’s worth much more than Hernandez, and the Tigers can hardly claim he’s worth much less.

by rea on Jan 29, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay,

I like this guess better than mine.

by StringTheory on Jan 29, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

JV used the Cabrera deal as an example

Miggy agreed to a one year deal to avoid arbitration, then signed an eight year extension. JV would presumably do the same if they can work it out.

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 31, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

If this is in fact true

It will be the best news I’ve heard all day! I love JV.

by Detroitchik on Jan 29, 2010 4:26 PM EST reply actions  

Ah.....

Cabrera/8 years: $153 million

Verlander/5 years: $75 million

The very thought of finally being rid of D-Train, Bonderman, and Robertson’s soul-crushing contracts after this season: PRICELESS

by ryan_matthews28 on Jan 29, 2010 4:29 PM EST reply actions  

Sign the Bad SOB immediately.

I have a hard time believing JV signs at these terms, but if he does, that is fantastic.

by rook34 on Jan 29, 2010 4:35 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

why is it hard to imagine him signing at these terms?

Pretty fair if you ask me since its right on par with Felix Hernandez who is younger and maybe better than JV.

by madpoopz on Jan 29, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

JV and his representation....

May not agree with your assertion that it is fair. I agree with you.

by rook34 on Jan 29, 2010 6:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I don't think they can turn this down...

because they don’t have much of an argument for more with Felix signing for not much more than 75.

by madpoopz on Jan 29, 2010 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

To quote John Malkovich in "Rounders"

“pay this man his money”. Say it in a Russian accent. It’s fun.

by ChrisDTX on Jan 29, 2010 5:56 PM EST reply actions  

I think 5/75 would be a nice bargain
Verlander gets quite a bit of money and a contract similar to a better, younger pitcher. The Tigers lock up their ace for the foreseeable future, or until the Yankees offer them a couple of relievers for him.

ZING!

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by Packey on Jan 29, 2010 11:25 PM EST reply actions  

On that 6th year

The union dad thing got me going on this.

While the 6th year might simply be him/his agents holding out for more money, Cot’s has his MLB service time at 4.002 years, with 10 years required to guarantee full pension and medical. If he’s got the pension in mind, that 6th year might be a relatively intractable demand.

I don't want to hear any weak sh*t from Jason Grilli.

by cherub_daemon on Jan 30, 2010 12:20 PM EST reply actions  

I never knew MLB players got pensions.

Unbelievable. One would have to be a Tyson-like spender to need a pension.

by StringTheory on Jan 30, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, kinda.

I mean, they make bank, but they tend to be forcibly retired around 35, and then have a work history consisting of: “Threw a ball really hard.”

I don't want to hear any weak sh*t from Jason Grilli.

by cherub_daemon on Jan 30, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

not all of them make these kind of contracts.

There has to be some sort of protection for those who don’t make the big bucks.

by madpoopz on Jan 30, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Even if they only make league minimum,

that’s at least $4 million in ten years. If one can’t make that last a lifetime, then they have a serious math deficiency.

by StringTheory on Jan 30, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

It’s weird how you hear about former athletes going broke after spending their millions. You’d figure with all the wealthy people they’re around during their career (owner, for one), they could be pointed in the direction of some good financial planners.

by Elfuego51 on Jan 30, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

It isn’t cheap to maintain a posse, you can’t get one guy a tricked out hummer without getting them all a tricked out hummer.

by rif23 on Jan 30, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Not when you’re paying state taxes, taxes in each state in which you earn a compensation (A.K.A. whatever states that you play in that force that law, like Massachusetts), paying your lawyers, your agent, helping out family (and I mean immediately family — parents, brothers, sisters, etc), having a family of your own, buying a house and then factoring in that $4 mil in the next decade is a penny in the bucket to $4 mil in, say , 25 years … I don’t find it surprising. Think of how much money Pete Rose made — first to ever sign for $1 mil in a SINGLE season and how many book signings and schmoozing meet-and-greets he has to do now to pay the bills.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

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by Mike Rogers on Jan 30, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

And comprehensive medical insurance is expensive

I’d stay in for that- especially after being an athlete for so long, injuries take their toll.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 30, 2010 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

totally agree

Single biggest factor that I mention when someone claims they would play a sport for free, so athletes should take less for our amusement – there is no salary in the world that would get me thinking that it would be a good idea to go into a profession where I could likely have multiple surgeries by 30 and be unable to get a job shortlly past 35, certainly by 40.

"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero

by Baroque on Jan 31, 2010 8:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Glad to hear we're going long term

I’ve found it impossible to see Verlander in another jersey in the future.

by Elfuego51 on Jan 30, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

JV

deserves a long term contract with a ton o cash… I do not, but I would like one as well…

by busta on Jan 30, 2010 1:38 PM EST reply actions  

Maggs, Clete, Raburn

I’m sure this is obvious, but I think if Maggs starts struggling for the plate, we need to make sure we get Raburn and Clete a lot of time in RF, need to see if we can start developing our young guys. I would hate to pay Maggs all that money in the 2011 season if he’s under-performing.

It is a must to lock down JV.

by HJYMorley on Jan 30, 2010 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

Young Guys?

Raburn and Thomas are FAR from young guys man… For every Zobrist who breaks out past the age of 27 there are about 100 that never do.

Unless a guy is putting up good numbers in AAA by 23 or 24, the ship has sailed.. A guy putting up decent numbers as a 28 year old is nothing to get excited over…

A player peaks at 27, stays good untill about 30 and then declines… Raburn and Thomas are already past peak age…

They do have value playing them right now, but in another 2 years I would bet they arent in the major leagues anymore…

If there is someone to develope it is Wilkin Ramirez… He is still young enough to have upside.

I hear talk of signing Damon, or not signing him and playing Raburn… Where is the Ramirez talk? National scouts think mor ehighly of Wilkin right now then they EVER have of Raburn or Thomas…

If the Tigers dont look like a contender come June, Wilkin should be giving the 2nd half of the season in LF to himself… Lets see what an actual prospect looks like… Not a couple 28 year old journeyman AAA player/4th outfielders.

Just because a guy hasnt had a fulltime job in the majors doesnt make him a prospect.

by jpolut on Jan 30, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Not going to lie, I’m not comfortable with 5 years.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 30, 2010 6:12 PM EST reply actions  

why?

Mechanically JV has very little risk of injury in his delivery. Just looking at the soundness of his mechanics, knowing how good his pitches are, and knowing how competitive he is makes this a very easy choice for me to make and that is sign the man.

by madpoopz on Jan 30, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Because pitchers get injured.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 30, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions  

so does everybody.

and I understand that due to the violence of the pitching motion there is a higher risk of injury for a pitcher but JV pitches the right way first off.

I’m not trying to be all pitching expert here because I’m not. What I’m trying to say is that if there is a pitcher out there right now that you wish to sign and give your staff an ace for prolonged amount of time than JV is that man.

All that velocity from what I can see comes from successfully implementing the kinetic chain without using any part of his body more than necessary to transfer all that kinetic energy to the baseball. Meaning no extra exertion is put on his legs, hips, shoulder, arm, or elbow. He makes one quick, smooth, transfer of energy throughout his body.

by madpoopz on Jan 30, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You're the expert around here

And I’ll go ahead and trust you, even though I still feel reaaaaly unsure about a big contract for him.

And if he demands a sixth year, go no higher than $15 per.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 31, 2010 1:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, I won’t lie … I have doubts on if last year was really a step forward for prolonged success or if it’s just a career year. I wasn’t as high on JV as all Tiger fans were from 06-08. 2009 his K’s sky rocketed.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 31, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

In '09 he struck out eleventy billion guys

but in ‘07 his K/9 wasn’t so shabby either. Even in ‘08 it was acceptable, he just walked too many guys that year. In any case, with his arsenal of pitches there’s really no reason he shouldn’t miss a ton of bats. I think with experience, he’s learned that. I expect him to whiff somewhere close to a batter per inning next season (though I doubt he’ll post as many K’s as last year).

by ChrisDTX on Jan 31, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

LMAO

greatly @ eleventy billion, an understatement….

by Detroitchik on Jan 31, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Well his arsenal hasn’t really changed since he came into the league and in my mind he didn’t really change how he attacked hitters. I’m not optimistic. There were a lot of outliers in some numbers he had last year: Namely, nearly 5% more swings at pitches out of the zone (O Swing ) over his career norm, less swings inside the zone (z swing % — but it was marginal… just 1 difference), Contact % down nearly 5% from his career norm (batters making less contact), etc etc. It’s all stuff we know because if you K more guys all these factors go up/down.

I’m not even going to pretend that i’m an expert in this, but I’d expect some sort of regression. I’ll take around 170-180 K’s in 200-210 innings next year (basically 7.65-7.70 K/9).

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Feb 1, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

All true and I would expect his K/9 numbers to regress some

but, pitchers can see a change in their true talent level and its not uncommon for a pitcher to have peripheral stats that exceed his previous career norms and then to build off of that in the coming seasons without returning to previous career norms. This very well may have happened to JV, although it is too soon to say that one way or the other. Personally, I expect his K/9 to probably dip below 9, but I also expect to see his BB/9 get better next season. He was a vastly different pitcher last year in terms of xFIP, FIP, tRA, swinging strike %, contact %, zone %, etc. In virtually every pitching category, there was a noticeable difference and given that he was only 26, that is not exactly unheard of. Some of his numbers may regress a little bit, but I don’t expect him to post FIP’s like he did from 06-08. I think he’s a different and better pitcher now.

by Scottwood on Feb 1, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I know. And I don’t necessarily agree with all that, but the cynic in me says it’s an outlier while the optimist in others says “building block.”

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Feb 1, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, and I tend to be a bit more optimistic

but we do see this quite often where a pitcher has a huge spike in K/BB ratio and then the pitcher either builds off that and improves or settles in with roughly similar K/BB ratios in the coming years (assuming good health). Even if you just go off recent pitchers, we see this a lot. For every Ervin Santana (who did have injuries last year), we see performance spikes in certain years by guys like CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Chris Carpenter and then they stay at that new established level for a few more years. For most of the top pitchers in the game, you can look at their career stats and see when their new established level began.

And, technically speaking, no season should be considered an outlier. It is just more data to consider as nothing should be ignored.

We’ll see what happens with Verlander. Personally, I think he reached a new level that he will likely stay at or near for the coming years (assuming good health). I certainly don’t expect a 2.8 FIP again, but I’d be very disappointed and surprised if his FIP ended up around 4. I expect an FIP at 3.5 and below to be his new established level with K/BB ratios around 4+.

by Scottwood on Feb 1, 2010 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm close to this

I’d take about 9 strikeouts, 3 walks and FIP around 3.5 for my most likely situation.

by Kurt Mensching on Feb 1, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

We’ll see who’ll win out: cynicism and pessimism, or the optimistic prime. I hope you’re right though.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Feb 2, 2010 3:39 AM EST up reply actions  

By the by, you and the BYB community have been talking me into the JV camp more and more (not that I was a hater, I just haven’t been a believer that he will continue this established level).

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Feb 2, 2010 3:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Pitching is an unnatural motion and EVERY pitcher is an injury risk. Add in that power pitchers are more of an injury risk than non-power pitchers and I just don’t like long deals for pitchers (I consider 5+ years long).

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 31, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

This projection system has us at 81 wins

http://dodgersims.blogspot.com/

When you look at CHONE’s projections for our guys and Marcel and Zips, etc. that tends to be where we fall. Around 81 wins or so based on total WAR for our everyday lineup and pitching staff. Rick Porcello will grade poorly in every projection for a variety of reasons and he is probably a bit of an outlier given his youth and upside. But, for the most part, we come out as a mediocre team in a very bad division.

We are kind of a hard team to project, though. Sizemore and Jackson will be judged very harshly in projection systems and all but JV and Scherzer will grade out as below average pitchers. If our back of the rotation holds up, Porcello continues to progress and Zumaya/Schlereth/Perry and Valverde develop into a lethal bullpen, then we do have the potential to out do a lot of these projections (bullpens are basically considered a crap shoot in most projection systems and is one area where a surprise team could throw a loop in the projected standings b/c a good bullpen can add a lot in the win probability department). But, a lot has to go right for us. Its going to come down to run prevention and that is a tough thing to rely on.

by Scottwood on Jan 30, 2010 8:34 PM EST reply actions  

To paraphrase Andy Griffith

“Pay the man, Aunt Bee. Just pay the man!”

by watsonstclair on Jan 31, 2010 6:50 AM EST reply actions  

Back up the Brinks truck.

When all is said-and-done, he has the potential to be the most important Tiger since Kaline. You don’t d**k around when that’s on the line.

by crwi on Jan 31, 2010 10:58 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Coming off the books

after 2010 season: Ordonez 18 mil (maybe), Bonderman 12.5 mil, Willis 12 mil, Robertson 10 mil, Inge 6.6 mil, Laird 3.95 mil, Seay 2.475 mil, Everett 1.55 mil. Total = $ 67 million.
 
However, the Tigers need to replace a shortstop, third baseman, catcher, right fielder, two starting pitchers, and one reliever. Some of the pitchers may be replaced from within, but I see no suitable replacements for the kind of players that the Tigers are losing to free agency from the lineup. Another $ 13 million comes off the books after the 2011 season, when Valverde and Guillen’s contracts expire.

$ 42.5 million is committed to payroll for the 2011 season, and that does not include Verlander or Ordonez. If Magglio gets 135 starts or 540 plate appearances, his 2011 option will vest at a cost of $ 15 million.

Once Verlander’s deal is done, DD won’t have any real free agent

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 31, 2010 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

The good part

The catcher, relievers and right fielder can probably be replaced from in the system (Alex Avila catches, Wilkin Ramirez plays right and our myriad of bullpen prospects fill the pen).

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 31, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see it

Wilkin has way too many holes in his swing to be considered an adequate replacement for Magglio. Casper Wells is probably a better bet to get the job there, but he’s no Maggs, either. DD will have to go shopping on the Free Agent market or the trade market for at least one big bat, as well as some infield help, IMO. It’s an opportunity to give the lineup a make over with solid defensive players that can get on base and run. I agree on the relievers, and probably Al’s kid behind the plate. Carl Crawford would be the ideal OF’er, but he comes with a hefty price tag.

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 31, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Look at it this way

If we go with either Wilkin or Casper in RF, we have that much more money to spend on SS/3B/SP.

That means we can make a play for Aramis Ramirez or Adrian Beltre for 3B and a Beckett/Webb or Vasquez/Lilly type for the rotation.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 31, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Not that anyone cares

what I think, but I don’t think Maggs is going anywhere till 2k11. He’ll be the full time DH then, if they try to shed anything, I think it will be Guillen

by Detroitchik on Jan 31, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

That's what we mean

We clearly can’t replace him next season, but in 2011 when we don’t pick up his option (which hopefully won’t vest), we have a couple potential replacements.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 31, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

well

It pleases me beyond words to think we’ll have him here for the remainder of his career.

by Detroitchik on Jan 31, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I was saying

Once Verlander’s deal is done, DD won’t have any real free agents coming due for a few years that HAVE to be signed. Just those that have to be replaced. Maybe Inge or Laird gets an extension, but methinks that Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Ordonez, Guillen, and Seay will be moving on. Hopefully, Everett will as well.

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 31, 2010 2:24 PM EST reply actions  

Compensation

And depending on the years that those guys have, we might be looking at compensation in the 2011 amateur draft if they can achieve Type A or Type B free agent status.

by trross1200 on Feb 1, 2010 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

A quote for those scrolling down far enough on the main page.

From FOX-Sports:

The Tigers are increasingly optimistic that they will sign Justin Verlander to a long-term contract extension… Verlander’s representatives are using Felix Hernandez’s recent contract with the Mariners as a reference point in negotiations.

My next class needs to start now. I’ve had way too much library baseball-reading time.

by StringTheory on Feb 2, 2010 2:59 PM EST reply actions  

the "z" key helps me scroll quickly.

and the buttons at the bottom of the page help me leave quickly.

And this makes me happy. More JV in the D please.

by madpoopz on Feb 2, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

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