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Morning Lede: Austin Jackson the CF frontrunner

So who do you think will be standing in center field for Detroit this April?

MLB.com's Jason Beck wrote about center field prospect Austin Jackson (stats) yesterday.

As Jackson approaches his 23rd birthday next month, the Tigers believe he's prepared to make the jump.

"We anticipate he'll be ready to play," team president/general manager Dave Dombrowski said this week. "There are a lot of guys that can play center field for us, but we anticipate he'll be ready."

*snip*

"When you look at young center fielders, there's not very many of them in baseball that are ready to step in," Dombrowski said at the Winter Meetings. "We think that Austin Jackson is. We like him a lot.

"We are counting on him to make our big league club."

Jackson is solid defensively, of course, and should be able to prowl Comerica Park' outfield without causing much concern from Day 1. 

However, you have to wonder about his flagging offense his previous two seasons. A .759 OPS in Triple-A last season (aided by a .390 BABIP) with a lack of power is a bit of a concern, though it is important to remember he was just 22 years old during that season. He was essentially a college junior or senior playing at the highest level of minor league ball.

Star-divide

The CHONE projection for his season has a .320 on-base percentage and .387 slugging average (for .707 OPS). It also pegs him at 16 steals.

Besides Jackson, fellow outfielder prospect Casper Wells (stats) should find himself in the competition to make the team out of spring training. Or will the Tigers find a veteran to hold down the fort at least to start the season?

Quick links:

Author Xeifrank told me:

I have done this for every team/division in MLB. The AL Central is the 5th division that I have published results for. The projections I used to base the player WARs off of come from Fangraphs with some of my own adjustments. This is a somewhat casual excercise and of course not the final say on which team(s) should be favored to win the division.

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*warning- optimism ahead*

I’m going to qualify this and say that it probably won’t happen, but I see some potential in Jackson to overperform his minor league numbers/tools. He’s got rave reviews from tons of scouts/managers/prospect guys, and I have to wonder if we’re missing something by not watching him play.

I really can’t quantify this, and I’m saying this despite the part of me whining about how everything looks like he’s going to be a 4th OF, but I think he’ll be ok.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 8, 2010 8:00 AM EST reply actions  

I wish I could share your optimism

I just hope that all of the scouts are right……

by baum on Jan 8, 2010 8:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Lovin' the optimism!

You know, if AJax and Sizemore do well, and Bondo is healthy, and the Schlereth/Perry/Zumaya team locks up the back end of the bullpen… DD will look like a freakin’ genius. I can’t wait for the season to start.

A lifelong Tigers fan

by ewild on Jan 8, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

While scouts have raved about him in the past, there have been plenty that said he’s simply “a bit above-average” in foot speed and scouts or not: at this point, his plate discipline has been pretty well established in the minors (In the 7-9% of all plate appearances range) as well as his K’s. I’m of the group that believes that plate discipline doesn’t drastically become improved upon, so he’s going to have to be a high BA guy to have very good offensive projection in terms of On-Base Percentage.

Meanwhile, I haven’t seen reports that he’s got a swing conducive to good power as his Isolated Power are hovering around .110-ish area on average (last year he was just at .106 — that’s awful for a guy who doesn’t have much more than average OBP skills).

Maybe I’m a pessimist and while we don’t know who he is 100%, there are trends in his skill set that are best left to stats — things like plate discipline and whatnot because scouts don’t accurately report it on every player.

Can he over perform his stats? Absolutely.

Is it likely? No.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 8, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Boy am I dumb

I thought Austin Jackson was white. I guess this makes him a reverse Reggie Cleveland All Star?

by ChrisDTX on Jan 8, 2010 10:20 AM EST reply actions  

Add Matt Kemp to this group. Quick. Name another black guy named Matt.

by mattintoledo on Jan 8, 2010 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

MattinToledo

…maybe.

A lifelong Tigers fan

by ewild on Jan 8, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Jackson's OPS by month in AAA:

.912 – April
.841 – May
.761 – June
.672 – July
.615 – August

Did scouts find his weakness? That’s my guess. I imagine Clete, Jackson, and Wells will compete for CF in spring training. If neither Jackson or Wells stand out, I’d rather see them remain in the minors.

by StringTheory on Jan 8, 2010 11:35 AM EST reply actions  

Jackson could use more seasoning

Not too sure about Wells… and I’d rather risk his future.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 8, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Jackson could use more seasoning

Why does this make me think of garlic and cumin?

by rea on Jan 8, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Austin Jackson

If Austin Jackson is a great prospect, why did the Yankees let go of him?

by gopher03 on Jan 9, 2010 1:19 PM EST reply actions  

if Hanley Ramirez was such a great prospect

why did the Red Sox let go of him?

All your favorite Tigers blog are belong to me.
Bless You Boys.com -- MackAvenueTigers.com

by Kurt Mensching on Jan 9, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The Great Kazoo told them to let him go.

I saw it on the Flintstones so it must be true.

by 13194013 on Jan 9, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Because they had to in order to get Granderson?

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Jan 9, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Thinking about this

it could be a possibility. If he performs to level they say he does, it could happen. How many will be competing for that position in spring training? Two or three total? Not knowing what half of the roster is going to look kike is killing me… can’t wait till they get this show on the road.

by Detroitchik on Jan 10, 2010 9:51 AM EST reply actions  

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