Ted Lilly signs with Dodgers
The Dodgers have reportedly come to terms with lefty starting pitcher Ted Lilly on a three year contract. That further reduces the number of free agent starters available for the Tigers to pursue this winter. Terms to be announced.
I believe that landing a starting pitcher is by far the greatest need that the Tigers will have this off season. While all the focus has been on sluggers to replace Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon, and to add some protection for Miguel Cabrera in the five spot in the lineup, the Tigers were still among the leaders in the AL in hits and OBP, and in the middle of the pack in offense, but their pitching ranked 12th of 14 teams in the league.
Simply moving Phil Coke to the rotation is no kind of an answer for the problems that the Tiger rotation has. They need to either sign a free agent or trade for a solid No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher and the list is getting thinner for free agents.
It doesn't have to be a lefty starter. The last time the Tigers won a World Series, they had no lefty starters in the rotation. Just get us a good starting pitcher, not one on the level of a Bonderman. With $ 34 million coming off the books that was allocated to starting pitchers that are leaving, surely we can get one good pitcher.
The list of Free Agent Starting Pitchers
1. Cliff Lee (A)
2. Bronson Arroyo (A) *- Option picked up
3. Carl Pavano (A)
4. Andy Pettite (A)
5. Ted Lilly (A)- Signed
6. Hiroki Kuroda (B)
7. Brandon Webb
8. Vicente Padilla
9. Jorge DeLaRosa (A)
10. Javier Vazquez (B)
Jeremy Bonderman
11. Freddy Garcia
12. Kevin Millwood (B)
13. Eric Bedard
14. Jon Garland (B)
15. Kevin Correia (B)
16. Ben Sheets
17. Jeff Suppan
18. Jake Westbrook
19. Rich Harden
20. Aaron Harang
I would not think that any of the bottom ten on this list represent any kind of an upgrade. In fact, both Vazquez and DeLaRosa aren't that good in my book. DLR could be the next Oliver Perez, but DD may be tempted because he won 16 games a year ago and he throws with the left arm. Certainly he's not worth a first round pick. Andy Pettite will either retire or go back to New York, and DD has said he won't go after Cliff Lee. Anyone feel like giving a first round pick to the Twins for Pavano? I didn't think so. As much as I like Pavano, he'd be coming on a two year deal or so. We won't know if Brandon Webb is healthy until mid January and if he is, there will be plenty of suitors for him.
It's all boiling down to the fact that DD's best option to upgrade the rotation may be a trade. Arroyo may be available by a trade if Cincy can't extend him on reasonable terms. They've just picked up his $ 11 million option, so they can't be demanding too much in addition to that for him. His new team inherits a type A pitcher that could bring handsome compensation a year later if he walks.
Other than Arroyo, there are the G Men: Zach Greinke, for whom the Royals will be listening to offers. Matt Garza, who figures to be part of the cost cutting in Tampa. Possibly Jeremy Guthrie who figures to be a bit behind the curve on the never arriving crop of youth in Baltimore. Throw in Gio Gonzalez, just because Billy Bean trades every decent pitcher he has before he has to pay them. Would be nice if any of these guys could be obtained for our G Man, Galarraga, but it probably takes more than that.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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I like some of your ideas
I’d be ok with seeing what type of contract Webb is looking for. He’s a bonafide ace when he’s healthy. I don’t think Greinke will be traded within the division. However, this is the Royals we’re talking about here so anything can happen. The front office would probably love Garza (cue power arm drooling), but I’d be happy with Gonzalez too.
I'm with you
I agree with all that you have said. I would love to see Gio also, but his home/road splits are a little worrisome. His W-L record isn’t terrible (8-3 at home, 7-6 on the road) but his ERA is almost a 1.50 run higher on the road, his BABIP is almost .100 points higher on the road and his WHIP is about .250 – .300 higher on the road. The flip side to that is his SO/BB ratio is better on the road (in fact he has less walks and more strikeouts total on the road) and he was excellent the second half of the season pitching in less than 6 innings only once, sported a 2.10 SO/BB ratio and a .268 BABIP.
I would not mind him coming over at all, I like Gio, especially because I’m sure he would cost a bit less than those other pitchers named. He’s a very good pitcher but I would be a little weary of him at first.
by Let's do this! on Oct 17, 2010 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Hm...,
Id like to see Webb, Kuroda, or Pavano here. Doesnt matter which 1, though. I woulda really like Lilly here….
It's hard not to get all googly-eyed over Zach Greinke . . .
Offer them Galarraga, Oliver, and Bosch? Hard to imagine a better rotation in the league than Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Porcello and Coke . . .
Why should the Royals care about trading within the division? If they expected to contend, they wouldn’t be getting rid of Greinke.
A couple of potential package deals would be attractive
Greinke + DeJesus
Garza + Bartlett or Zobrist
Guthrie + Luke Scott
Maybe Oliver + Boesch could get one of those deals done. Greinke probably would require more like Porcello + Turner. If KC deals him, he won’t be cheap, and every team would be interested. Buster Olney apparently listed ten teams, but I don’t have “Insider” to see which teams.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Kuroda
contract details from Cot’s contracts
# 3 years/$35.3M (2008-10)
* signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 12/15/07
* $7.3M signing bonus (paid between 3/2008 and 3/2010)
* 08:$5M, 09:$10M, 10:$13M
* no-trade protection
* Kuroda may become a free agent after contract expires
* perks: $30,000 moving allowance, visa fees paid by club, personal trainer, interpreter, interpreter for family, English lessons, 8 round-trip first class airline tickets between Japan, LA each season
He will be expensive. This salary is not going down. The Dodgers would like to keep him, too.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Thanks for those
I honestly didnt know English lessons were perks, but why not? :D
by DetroitSports on Oct 17, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see Kuroda being moved
There’s no real reason for LA to do so, unless they get a monster offer from someone.
Kuroda is a free agent
Even though he has only spent three years in the majors, the terms of his contract make him a free agent this winter. See the terms delineated above. He’s a Type B free agent, so he would not cost a compensation pick to sign, even if he declined arbitration.
The Dodgers have almost a full rotation of free agents. Kuroda, Lilly, Padilla, and they had Garland last year. Trading James McDonald for Dotel was a really, really dumb move by Colletti.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Yeah I don't get exactly why I phrased it that way
but I wouldn’t be surprised to see LA match any offer made to Kuroda, unless it’s absolutely ridiculous. Unless Kuroda wants out of LA, I see him going back to the Dodgers next season.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 18, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I have a feeling that McCourt will have to sell the team, so much is up in the air with the Dodgers.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
what a great soap opera, McCort
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be all over Erik Bedard
if he’s available
+1
I didn't like Lilly anyway.
So I’m glad he’s not on our team
+1
His BABIP suggests that he's in for some regression
Same with Arroyo, but Lilly is a fly ball pitcher that might just survive pretty well in Detroit.
I’m not fixated on having a lefty in the rotation, and I see Lilly as about the fourth best starter if the Tigers picked him up.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
You think the DL needs better quality?
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Between Sheets, Bedard and Webb, the walking wounded are well represented on the list of free agent starting pitchers.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
the bullpen
I agree we need a fifth starter who can give us five/six quality innings. Coke certainly will be an upgrade over Bonderman/Galleraga (these two ARE NOT AN OPTION, PLEASE!).
What we really need, however, is a bullpen. I’m talking a left hander who can get left handers out, and two experienced guys (Jesse Crain/Dan Wheeler types) who are not Type A free agents who can step into seventh and eighth inning roles. We were successful in 2006 because Rodney/Zumaya/Jones anchored those three innings. We were 12th out of 14 in pitching because our bullpen didn’t have enough depth to begin with, and imploded when Zumaya went down. Perry needs to develop experience. I would also sign a Rauch type who can close if Valverde becomes injured.
Of course, I would rather have Lee, Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, and Coke, and take a chance with the same everyday players we had last year, with Danny Worth at shortstop and Peralta at third base to anchor more defense.
So sign Lee, Wheeler, Rauch, Crain, and a left hander, then worry about offense.
Coke is a crap shoot in the rotation.
He might pan out, and he might not.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
might/might not, looking at career stats
top 10 starters on your wish list, TDog, one yr to next.
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Is that a question?
If so, can I put guys like Halladay and Lincecum on the list? lol.
You could take the top ten FA’s above, and replace the bottom of that group with the G Men.
I know this much, you start naming the top ten SP’s on the Tiger depth chart and it starts looking scary before you get to five on the list. By the end of the list, you’re at Figaro and Furbush, and that ain’t no way to run a ballclub, son!
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
no just your 1-10 top FA list, TDOG
you have listed it several times, and i respect it…think ya sell Oliver/Coke short. 95 mph Lefty’s not on your FA list. Jim Price, thinks Coke has the 3 pitch good’s, off speed pitches were getting better as arm tired. Oliver, JL said 17 wins, soon.
Would love a trade for King Felix, while we are dreaming. Kind regard’s, bud, enjoy your post’s.
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Oliver and Coke are both possibles
Hard not to like a lefty that throws in the mid 90’s, but whether Andy can locate his breaking stuff with any consistency, and whether Coke can transition to being a starter is anyone’s guess. I would not bet my playoff hopes on them. I’d get one SP by trade or the FA route, and then if those guys can’t beat Galarraga out of a job, there’s nothing to talk about.
Bo9 is about No. 5 or 6 on the depth charts at the moment, IMO, ahead of Figaro. Coke has to earn a spot before I’d give him one, though. I’d give him every chance to earn it, but I would not pencil him in for anything. The only certainty with him leaving the bullpen is that we now need two relievers with some history of late inning success instead of just one.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
agree 8 starters needed, think DD (awesome Jeter like GM) said that too
just need a fair competition amoung those 8, not polluted by huge contracts…enough of robertson/bonderman/willis. No one new please, that tie hands at trade deadline, aquired starters need to be exceptional, like Cabbera at plus 50, your post. Or as JL say’s, “a difference maker”.
Bonine SO rate while throwing knuckleball was high, he declined to below ave after he stopped throwing it. rediscovered it was awesome last couple of appearances…Bonine my tiger
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
also, coke has a knuckleball..
Call me an idiot, but is sucker for the knuckleball from Eddie Bonine to Wilber Wood. Wish Eddie hadn’t stoped throwing it. His ERA ballooned afterwards. Am Eddie Bonine fan after hearing story of his journey to spring training 09’ with his mom…heart out to Eddie.
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
His fly ball tendencies would probably thrive somewhat in Detroit, but he’s not exactly a rare commodity. Develop the young’ns instead.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 18, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
One more player gone
A better chance for lee
Joshd12
Brock University
BA. Sports Management, 2014
BA. Recreation and Leisure Studies, 2011
Kuroda is my choice
I’m glad Lilly signed with the Dodgers, one less mistake that we could get stuck with. I think Kuroda is a better pitcher and a better fit for us and he’s only a Type B free agent. Plus I’d like to see a lefty in the rotation. I don’t think Oliver or Coke is the answer.
Kuroda made 15 million last year but contract backloaded
Has been consistent in big leagues whip 1.18 career, 1.16 last year. Now he is 35. Wonder what the market price will be?
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Still
A 2 year deal at 8m a year even. I don’t think he’d ask for that much, but if he does…
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 18, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Since he made 13.5 last season, and he had a solid year, it's hard to see him taking that big of a cut, IMO.
Especially with the lack of real quality options on the FA market.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Agreed
I don’t think we need to commit that much money to a 35-year old pitcher being asked to make the transition from the NL (West, of all divisions) to the AL.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 19, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
It's all about the G Men!
Greinke, Garza, Guthrie, or Gio Gonzalez.
Or maybe Arroyo Grande!
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Walt Jocketty said Cincinnati is definitely picking Arroyo's option up
I’m totally cool with that.
by ozymandius1024 on Oct 18, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
True, and he also said that they'll try to extend him.
It only makes sense to pick up Arroyo’s option, even if only for his trade value.
A pitcher on a one year deal for $ 11 million with his numbers has value on the trade market.
When clubs start going through the decent FA starters and see what’s there, Arroyo becomes a more attractive option than almost any of them, IMO, and he doesn’t take a long term deal.
But if he wants what he’d get as a free agent, I’m not sure the Reds will pay that much and he might be on the block. Cincy has a number of good young starting pitchers, and could add to that stable if they trade Arroyo.
I put Arroyo in the category with Lilly as one who is due for some regression because of an unreasonably low BABIP. Although his ERA is steady enough for two seasons to justify his contract.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Meh to all four
Pass on Guthrie. He’s defense dependent and ours will suck next year. Gonzalez would cost us Turner and Oliver at least, so he’s out. Greinke would cost us Porcello/Turner/Oliver at least so he’s out (and his decline in ability also scares the hell out of me). Garza wouldn’t be bad if we could get him for Oliver and a lesser prospect, but I have a feeling they’d ask for Turner, which I wouldn’t do (Garza is a flyball pitcher coming off a season in which he put up a 4.51 xFIP and 4.42 FIP- hell, I’d say Oliver could do that as soon as next year).
To be honest, signing Cliff Lee would be the best option of them all. And I’d consider talking to Toronto about flipping Boesch for one of their starters (especially an injured Dustin McGowan). I’m not really convinced we need to make a grand splash as much as we need depth. We’ve got a pair of aces at the top of the rotation (Verlander/Scherzer). We’re missing above average pitchers to slide in behind them.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 18, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, a trade always depends on what you have to give up
and they all look better if you can do a package deal for an OFer or a SS as well, such as maybe Luke Scott, DeJesus, Zobrist or Bartlett, maybe Aviles (mixed feelings there, but he’s not Jhonny).
Guthrie has as much negative working against him in Baltimore, in that park and that division, as he has working in his favor. Tejada = defense? Hmmmm…..
If I were Toronto, I’d be trying to build around that rotation, and I’d also be offering arby all over the place to those relievers.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Getting guys like that additionally in a deal would be awesome
But the only realistic one in that group is probably Jason Bartlett, and that’s only because he’s not going to have much of a place on next year’s Rays with all of the in-house options they’ve got at SS. Ben Zobrist is a quality player, but he’s signed to a club friendly deal for the next 5 or so years (2 of them being club options) and provides them a ton of utility (even if 2009 is an outlier). That wouldn’t come cheap in a trade, especially if he came with Garza.
The Royals know what they have in DDJ (the same could be said of Aviles, and he’s cheaper as well), and trading him in addition to Greinke would net a gigantic return. I agree with David that Greinke should be looked at with caution, as his 2009 could be an outlier. He’s still an excellent pitcher, but not someone you should be trading the farm for for an ace price at this point.
Regarding Guthrie, having Izturis/Roberts/Lugo/Markakis/Jones/Pie behind you kinda cancels out having Miguel Tejada for half of a season.
I’m not really for trading for any of those fellas because I’m still mad that Arizona took a dog deal for Haren. That was the guy to acquire, and it really sucks that Detroit couldn’t land him somehow.
by ozymandius1024 on Oct 19, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Royals got full value for DDJ, as a healthy player, I think they'd move him
They’re building something in KC, but DDJ doesn’t figure to be around to be a part of it, nor does Greinke. The price for DeJesus can’t be too high, just because he doesn’t have the power stats that drive prices up to the top of the scale. I’m not sure he’s what DD is looking for. He’d fit nicely in the 2 slot, but then we have the 3 and 5 still vacant, and we’re looking internally for probably one corner OF. In the 3 hole, DDJ doesn’t have a lot of pop.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I'd like David DeJesus
But I don’t think the Royals would let him go for cheap.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 19, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Do we have any former Braves on our roster?
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 19, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
We do have a former M.
That’s appealing to GMDM.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Not cheap, but not like a guy with a .900 OPS would get in return
a package around Boesch may do it, depending how they look at BB
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
G-men cut that out
Lion loss still smarting…..ouch
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 18, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
This signing is meaningful
It’s going to set the bar for the mid-tier SP market. Pavano will probably be looking for similar money, as will Kuroda, Pettite, Padilla…etc. I don’t think it will do much to set Cliff Lee’s price, but I bet the rest of the SP crop will be affected by this signing. I’m interested in the dollar figure.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
My guess is three years, $ 33 to 36 mil.
After Lee, there are probably some GM’s that would have had Lilly as the next best option, and the best lefty option among SP’s. Pavano probably gets the salary, but not three years if only because of his recent injury history. Kuroda is older, Padilla has health concerns every year, so there are differences. I think this deal is good for both sides.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I'm guessing 27-30M
Someone please post the figure when it is released.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
that might be good value, Kuroda
have faith in asian’s to take care of selves for longevity, (ya thats prejudice, but dad married one and she is physically imaculate at 63)
"Always 1984"
Aaron Harang
I know all of his numbers have trended downward over the past 2-3 years, but unless his problems are health-related, and not mechanical, I’d like to see the Tigers take a chance on him. He’s always had strikeout stuff.
by Ian Casselberry on Oct 18, 2010 4:58 PM EDT reply actions
I wasn't going to be the first to say it.
Harang intrigues me. I think he still has the ability to be a dependable mid to back end rotation starter. A change of scenery could help, though going to the AL may end up hard on Harang.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
I'm assuming that the Reds will decline his option.
I’m skeptical, though. ERA’s of 4.78, 4.21 and 5.32, with WHIP’s of 1.38, 1.41, and 1.58 over the last three seasons, all in the NL Central. Only 20 starts and 111 Innings in 2010. He had some back issues in mid season, then was moved to the bullpen in September.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
two way contract
those numbers, especially national league, gawd aweful
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 19, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
With my biggest bet on Wilk, I’ll take Wilk/Weber/L.J.Gagnier/Furbush/Villarreal/Brown/Figaro/Oliver. The extras fight it out for #7 and #6 in relief.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 18, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions
Are you talking about Toledo? If not I would demand the whole front office to be fired if they put all those arms in the pen. That could be the highest bullpen ERA in tigers history if they ever did that. Wilk needs to get hitters out at AAA before he is even considerd. Oliver as a spot starter and the rest belong in AAA and AA this year.
by Benzy Ferrari on Oct 20, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Here are the details
The Dodgers have signed Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33MM contract that was finalized today when the 34-year-old pitcher passed a physical. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter) reports that Lilly has a full no-trade clause for the first two seasons of the deal, and the left-hander will receive a $3.5MM signing bonus to be paid out over all three years. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com broke the news of the agreement last Saturday, and MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was the first to confirm the dollar amount (both Twitter links).
Not sure if that signing bonus is included in the $ 33 mil. I’m getting pretty good at this contract estimation thing. :)
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
You're like a mini Buddah.
This sets the bar…11-12M per year for Lilly should get Pavano about the same amount in my estimation. That puts Lee at….substantially more. Some of the other guys, like Vazquez and Kuroda, should be in this ballpark as well.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I think Pavano gets about 10MM for one or two seasons.
Couple of things here. He’s a righty which is not as rare. He’s got a recent history of injuries and that awful contract that the Yankers saved DD from (and the Tigs wound up with Magglio), and Pavano has recent success in the AL. Nate freakin Robertson got 10 mil. Shopping for FA pitchers on the open market is an expensive hobby, but the Tigers MUST add a proven starter to that 11th ranked rotation if they’re going to contend.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Yeah
I’d give it to Vasquez at best.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 20, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd give it to Cliff Lee
along with a little more.
by Rob Rogacki on Oct 21, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

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