Lefties for 2011
by johnnygre on Oct 2, 2010 12:49 PM EDT
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Remember during the off season when we were all worried about the lack of lefties in the roster? Before Damon's signing there was no other leftie hitter with a secure spot in the line up. Meanwhile among the pitching staff Willis, Robertson, Thomas and Seay were question marks and only Coke was a lock either for the rotation or the 'pen.
However during the season we witnessed the sudden burst of Boesch, the maturing of Avila, the deserved promotion of Rhymes, the career season of Kelly and solid contributions from not only Coke but also Thomas and lately Schlereth.
Overall we have some talented lefties, veteran or rookies, regulars or utility men, some under team control and others soon to become free agents.
Who should be kept, who should be released and who can be used as trade bait?
Here's the list divided into hitters and pitchers:
HITTERS
- Johnny Damon, 36 y.o. DH/LF: Will be a FA at the end of the season. Wants to come back but if we really want someone like Crawford or Werth and with the possible return of Ordonez, then Damon is expendable. Still he is well-liked and a clubhouse leader who can still teach a lot to our youngsters.
- Don Kelly, 30 y.o. IF/OF: Has played a lot of positions with equal success and is putting on a power display lately. He has a career year and I really like him but he can't give anything more and for a team with playoff aspirations I dont think he is good enough to hold a roster spot.
- Will Rhymes, 27 y.o. 2B: The surprise call-up has earned himself a chance at becoming a regular next year. He plays his position well and has good contact skill and speed that make him at least an average 1 or 2 spot hitter.
- Brennan Boesch, 25 y.o. LF/RF: Came out of nowhere and torched opposing pitchers, lefties and righties alike, for half a season then went cold after the All-Star break. Dave insists that his second-half self is more representative of his value. If he can be a little more productive and put up the kind of numbers that Raburn is having right now, he can be a very solid corner outfielder... or a decent trade prospect.
- Alex Avila, 23 y.o. C: He became better and better as the season progressed and is ready now. Now that he has better knowledge of the pitching staff, he can concentrate next year on improving his offense.
PITCHERS
- Bobby Seay, 33 y.o. RP: Missed the whole season, will be FA at the end of the season and will not be classed. I don't think any one will miss him.
- Brad Thomas, 33 y.o. RP/SP: Has a winning record, a 3.95 ERA and has pitched nearly 70 innings as a long reliever/spot starter. But this is his peak and even so I think that he is more lucky than capable. Perhaps his FIP would help as a measure.
- Phil Coke, 29 y.o. RP: Yes he is 29 and after a brilliant first half he has been inconsistent and quite hittable. The Yankees were concerned about the drop in his velocity when they tried to stretch him as a starter. While this may be quite natural when you pitch more innings, it seems that either his velocity dropped too much or he didn't really have the stuff to be a starter in the majors.
- Fu Te Ni, 25 y.o. RP: Effective against left-handed batters, disaster against righties. When I made a recap of the first 1/3 of the season I pointed out how good his numbers were, but Dave correctly pointed to his secondary numbers and indeed before too long he was sent down to Toledo. Next season?
- Daniel Schlereth 23 y.o. RP: Still improving and soon to become ready for the majors. He can be either a specialist or a setup man or even a potential closer.
- Andy Oliver, 23 y.o. SP: For all his merits and his potential I'd rather use him as trade bait in order to improve our offense. If he trully has developed 3 pitches he might be even more attractive to some teams than Turner.
So, what are your thoughts for these guys? And don't forget the boys at Toledo, Clete Thomas, Charlie Furbush etc, who could make an impact if/when called up.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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My 2 cents
As far as the pen is concerned I’d guess that Coke and Schlereth are the two lefties. Bobby Seay really is not an option.
As for the lineup, I would guess that only Avila is guarenteed a spot. I doubt Damon resigns and Rhymes/Boesch could be trade bait as a package.
*This is an opinion of JAYRC and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
My take....
HITTERS
- Johnny Damon-will be back next year. Boras player=nice contract from tigers. Do I like it? No. He is on the decline as seen this year. It will only get worse. Good clubhouse guy though.
- Don Kelly, 30 y.o. IF/OF. Love this guy as a utility Tom Brookens type guy. Not an everyday player though
- Will Rhymes, 27 y.o. 2B:I would love to see what this guy could do if he was an everyday player. This might not happen though. The Tigers seem to favor Siezmore for some reason. Guillien will no doubt be hurt by May so we will see one or the other. I’d rather see Rhymes.
- Brennan Boesch, 25 y.o. LF/RF:No one will want this guy in a trade, so you are stuck with him. Hopefully he can work out the kinks in the offseason and at least meet in the middle as far as last years offense is concerned. .270 with 20+ HR’s and I’d be happy. Not sure he can do it though. Has +defense.
- Alex Avila, 23 y.o. C: Decent catcher. Terrible hitter, but way better than Laird. Most catchers can’t hit these days so I can live with him, also he’s young so it could improve. I’d love to see a vet free agent come in to split time/teach him
PITCHERS
- Bobby Seay, 33 y.o. RP:Done. He was great last year. Top in the league in holds. We’ll see if he recovers, but I’m writing this one off
- Brad Thomas, 33 y.o. RP/SP: decent mop up./spot starter. Makes me miss Zach Miner.
- Phil Coke, 29 y.o. RP:
great relief guy! Love him. Please don’t “Jabba” him and ruin him by trying to make a starter out of him. Could be a closer some day, great set up guy.
- Fu Te Ni, 25 y.o. RP: Please only bring up to face lefties. Otherwise, never please
- Daniel Schlereth 23 y.o. RP: Great upside. Unbelievable curveball. Needs to work on control of fastball.
- Andy Oliver, 23 y.o. SP: You will not get much for him in a trade, so I’d stay patient on this one. 1 more year and lets see if he can get 3 pitches.
Country Strong
Hopefully Damon won’t be back to allow Andy Dirks and 100% Ryan Strieby to perform. The Tigers will realize that Ryan Raburn will perform if they play him every day. Guillen on the DL enables the Tigers to try Wells/Worth/Dirks/Boesch if they don’t sign Damon. There’s no future to Damon vs. developing the players mentioned above. A space should be used to its best advantage. Even 100% Strieby vs. Guillen is no comparison. Max St. Pierre vs Laird is easy. Rhymes vs. Sizemore is the easiest. Give gutsy players a chance. Why the Tigers had Everett vs. Worth is beyond me. Congrats to the Tigers for playing the Kids. Alot of something for nothing is good. Watch Rawley Bishop and Billy Nowlin perform at Erie. Watch Schlereth blow them away. Watch Robbie Weinhardt develop into the pitcher we all knew he would become. Watch Alex Avila raise his average as his patience pays off. Will Rhymes is my type of player.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 8, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Coke is not the answer to anything. Maybe he can beat out Galarraga for the fifth spot.
But the Tigers need a proven major league No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher if they want to be a contender. They had the 12th best pitching staff in the AL in 2010.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Agree on that
Besides it’s not necessary to have a lefty in the rotation is it? If we were able to get (say) Pavano and stick with Armando as the No.5 we would still have a heck of a rotation and all would be righties.
Gone are/should be:
Lard – no explanation needed
Don Kelly – He’s a good utility player, but Raburn already fills that bill. There’s no need for 2 utility men. He really hasn’t impressed me.
Damon – I like Johnny, but there’s really no room for him in the outfield or to DH with Strieby fighting for a spot. Wells/Boesch/Raburn will be wrestling for the outfields spots, in addition to the possibility that we add a big name FA in the outfield. His leadership has been great, and could be useful but there’s no where for him to play
Seay – Eternally hurt
Thomas – Blew up in far too many games this year. Retooling the bullpen means he’s gone
Coke will be our number 3 starter, and rightfully so. That leaves a glaring hole in the pen, though.
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Not rightfully so
He’s in the pen for a reason, and that’s because his stuff isn’t good enough for multiple trips around the lineup.
I’m hoping the Tigers are just bluffing with that, and that he’ll just get an opportunity to prove himself in ST before returning to the bullpen.
by ozymandius1024 on Oct 4, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
The “gaping hole in the pen” is filled by Dan Schlereth—just liik at his stuff in his last 4 outings. Andy Dirks vs. Damon—no comparison. Wells vs Damon, no comparison, if Wells were there this year vs. Damon, the Tigers would have won more games and developed a player for the future. Raburn is an every day player. The mistake they made in 2009 and this year is treating him as a utility player in the beginning of the year. No recognition was given each year to the fact that he was one of the best hitters in the league for a few consecutive months. Pick a starter or long reliever from Wilk/L.J.Gagnier/Weber/Villarreal/FurbushOliver/Figaro. I picked Coke out in 2008 when I saw his Yankee 14 innings. The best trades to make are where the other team wants the Tiger player—Granderson/Edwin Jackson or when the other team gets down on the player—Coke in 2009 Post Season. Play them enough in AFL and Spring Training and the decision will be easy. Get them to Erie and Toledo as soon as possible. Adam Wilk-Robbie Weinhardt-Dan Schlereth-Will Rhymes-Andy Dirks-100% Ryan Strieby-Ryan Raburn-Danny Worth-Casper Wells————PLAY EM.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 7, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Kelly was interviewed by Dickerson the other day
said he had a breakthrough in 2008, finally understanding the application of “getting the head of the bat out in front”…so I look at stats since then, and say “late blumer”.
Kelly is a useful UT player
He’s really exactly what we need from a 25th man. He showed a decent stick and a pretty good glove, regardless of position. He also hit LH on a team with a few too many RH.
Raburn and Kelly aren’t the same player at all, but they seem to get compared. Leyland seems to use them similarly, but Kelly has a glove and Raburn doesn’t. Raburn probably has trade value and Kelly probably doesn’t.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
ERA for relievers is dam near irrelevant.
A WHIP under 1.2 is very good
Under 1.3 makes him a decent pitcher
Above 1.4, he’s either struggling or lousy, depending how long he’s been in that territory
Above 1.5, just go away
Brad’s WHIP is 1.53 this season. Just too many base runners.
Another measure is a pitcher’s OBA. Thomas is up there at .363. Too high.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
That said, like him alot as a person
Good teammate like Damon, daughter up at 3am in AUS to watch Dad on TV. Variety of different roles with that WHIP somewhat elavated with the spot starts. He was also reaclimating to MLB mound hieght and ball seams that are different than in Asia. From the way Price and Dickerson talk about his popularity in the Pen, I wonder if teammates would kick him out if he had egg farts?
Where do Dan Schlereth’s last 4 outings place him? Where do Adam Wilk’s stats place him? Appreciate your comments.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 7, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Four outings?
Probably in AAA Toledo. And Wilk will be in AA Erie.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
His last four games. I can’t believe that the Tigers will be foolish enough to put him back in Toledo. If Adam Wilk shines in Spring Training, the Tigers will wake up. I still have Weber/Furbush/Villarreal/L.J.Gagnier/Oliver/Figaro with whom to work. I also have Andy Dirks. I only have one wish—PLAY THEM TO SEE, hopefully at a high enough level. Since this post is for LHP, watch Cole Nelson and Alex Burgos.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 7, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Schlereth seems to be part of the pen next year,
taking into account all the post season media references. Ya got to figure the journalist get to talk to front office, so the news can be crafted/spun and trail balloons sent up.
by Hack Johnson on Oct 7, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that'll end poorly
Just me- Schlereth still needs to work out some control issues.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 7, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
For the moment, assume Schlereth can repeat his last 4 outings, do you feel the same way?
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 8, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I'd imagine he still would
Daniel had a nice end to the year, but what exactly did he do that was out of the ordinary for him?
6.2 IP
5 hits
5 walks
11 Ks
That’s an amazing K rate, but the guy still allows way too many baserunners for a reliever. There’s no problem with getting him consistent opportunities in AAA to see if he can sort it out instead of just giving him work every now and then in the majors.
by ozymandius1024 on Oct 8, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 8, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Last 5 outings: 9/14 .1-0 9/15 .1-0 9/19 .2-0 1BB 1K Save 1 9/25 1.2-1 2BB 3K 1 win 10/3 3.1-3 2BB 4K 2 Win ERA 0.00. That’s why I think Schlereth is ready. Scouting reports like his Stuff too.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 11, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
And they hate his control
As do the numbers.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 12, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude
Why would we play a bunch of guys who a) don’t grade well on scouting reports and b) are coming from pretty low levels (A+ or AA) in the majors. Hell, I’m an optimist and even I don’t think it’s a good idea.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 7, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
But they can call some major gaping holes, like swing mechanics issues.
Just because they’re not 100% reliable doesn’t mean they’re not useful.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
Scouting reports are worth a look, but the game is performance. The more performance you see, the better you can judge the potential. Schlereth performed perfectly in his last 4 games by getting key outs with men on base in very close games. For the record for Schlereth: 9/14 .1-0 9/15 .1-0 9/19 .2-0 1BB 1K S1 9/25 1.2-1 2BB3K win 10/3 3.1-3 2BB4K. win now 2-0. It’s his last 5 games. ERA 0.00. Any comments?
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 11, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
5 outings is a trend, but a very small one. I see no reason we carry him up on the 25 man unless he impresses in ST. Don’t think he won’t be up next year, but he doesn’t have to make the team outright.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 12, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Good angle!
I think some of the fans don’t understand the opportunity cost to keeping kids you don’t have to. If he’s playing as a Tiger, he’s on the 40-man roster (and the 25 man). If someone makes the 40-man, then you’ve got to push somebody off and that’s not always an easy decision.
Yes, there are a few names that I wouldn’t mind dropping, but with most, there’s some organizational value that we’d lose.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
The key is the 40 man and 2 candidates for spaces are Frazier and Dlugach to be replaced by L. .J. Gagnier and Zach Simons. If Clete Thomas shortens his swing, I still think he has potential, but if not, he’s another space.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 13, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Fu Te Ni was getting it back down the stretch at Toledo
wouldn’t give up on him either, all 3 cheap valuable role players….anyone got an update on Zack Minor?
you mean zach miner?
and no. home rehabbing last we knew.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 4, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks......At Home, What?
Hiding those health issues at home to give Boris more room to be manipulative?
I don't think he's exactly a Boras type of client
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 6, 2010 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Boras sits his coffee cup on Miner's file folder.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Just for the record- I've never been worried about a lack of lefties either in the rotation, the bullpen, or the lineup
and I don’t see moving Coke to the rotation as a likely solution for anything.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
If we offer arbitration to Damon and he accepts
Does that mean that he will stay on the team? I believe he is a A-type FA so it would be better to get a 1st round draft pick instead.
Yes, he stays
I’m inclined to think he would accept arbitration. His salary would probably be 8-10M or more and he wouldn’t have to job hunt again. The team would be a little foolish to offer.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I agree
I think he’d accept, and he’s not the answer they need to compete for the division
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 10, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Please NO Damon vs. Wells/Dirks/100%Strieby. Avila improving with playing time, Peralta/Rhymes for a full season, Schlereth also for a full season, no more 60 pitch outings for Valverde, with Weinhardt/Perry improving it won’t be necessary. If Zach Simons develops, Coke may be able to move to starter. I’d rather pick the starter from Brown(if he merits it from AFL/Weber/L.J.Gagnier/Especially Wilk/Figaro/Villarreal/Furbush/Oliver.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 11, 2010 1:57 PM EDT reply actions
A lesson should be learned. With Schleret/Weinhardt/Perry, there should NEVER be a reason to do it again. I’m hoping they’ll give Zach Simons a full view in ST to have the option for Coke in the rotation. I’d still rather have Adam Wilk. No one seems to want to comment on him. Look at all his stats since the Tigers signed him and forget the 87 top fastball. He must be doing it with something.
by StephenGrosberg on Oct 13, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
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