Magglio Ordonez's awesome season cut way too short
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 22, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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Every weekday between now and mid-November, we'll be looking closer at a Tigers player. For more information on the series, including a schedule, please check this post out.
When Magglio Ordonez was injured in late July against the Blue Jays, the Tigers not only lost a fan favorite, they also lost one of the franchise's most popular players from the past decade. The immediate impact of this was to end any chance Ordonez had of having his $15 million option kick in for 2011. We didn't know it at the time, but it also cost the fans the opportunity to say a possible goodbye, as he did not return in 2010.
During the 84 games Ordonez played in, he hit an above-average .852 OPS and was the rare Tiger to drive runners in from scoring position on a regular basis. He had the third-highest percentage of runners on base driven in for the team (18.1 percent), including 44 percent from third base and 18.4 percent from second.
In the field, Ordonez is nothing special. However, he is not going to embarrass himself and he has a decent throwing arm.
For his time playing, he deserves an A..
At the plate:
| Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 36 | 84 | 365 | 323 | 56 | 98 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 38 | .303 | .378 | .474 | .852 | 130 |
Via Texas Leaguers
It goes without saying Ordonez was the second-best hitter on the team in 2010, and not only because he could spread the ball around the field and hit for power. Ordonez also managed to work walks in nearly 11 percent of his plate appearances. He makes contact well too, as Fangraphs noted he doesn't swing at many pitches outside the zone and makes contact well with pitches inside it.
You want more superlatives? He was the rare Tiger who hit even better with runners on base than he did when the bases were empty.
In the field:
As always with UZR, you have to take caution about the sample size. But Ordonez was an ever-so-slightly above average right fielder.
Fans rated him slightly below average, due mostly to his running speed. His reaction, glove and arm were all given slightly above-average grades.
Ordonez's fielding is not a thing of beauty, but he gets the job done and your heart doesn't stop while the ball is in the air like it does with some corner outfielders on the team.
What 2010 tells us about 2011:
There's really nothing in Ordonez's statistics that say he can't repeat 2010's success, although you should certainly factor in a few decreases due to aging.
The real question about Ordonez is how the fractured ankle will affect his 2011 season. It occurred late in July, giving him extra healing time before the season. So that's certainly a benefit. His work ethic, too, is solid. While I always believe there should be a caution following an injury that puts a player out for a lengthy period of time, I don't think this one will hurt Ordonez's production too much. Still I'd probably factor in a little extra drop in case he's nursing any lingering problems during a cold April.
That is, if he is in Detroit. As Ordonez as a free agent, who knows where he'll be. The money the team saves on not paying the option will allow them some added flexibility, at least. But I have a feeling from the fans' viewpoint, having Ordonez back remains one of the highest priorities.
Resources:
I used Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, Texas Leaguers, and TangoTigers's 2010 Scouting Report by the fans.
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I think he will be back
I’d expect a pretty slow start out of him next year though.
Aging player + healing ankle + cold weather = not good.
I don’t see why he couldn’t replicate most of his hitting stats again, save for power. We just might have to call him Singlio more often.
I wouldn't mind that. (((AND if he needs a wheel chair, I will roll him around the base pads :P)))
especially if we’re paying him less money. His job would primarily be to get on base and set Miguel up. He makes good contact with the ball, I am certain he could still do that. It doesn’t matter if he hits for a lot of power. However he was on pace to knock in 100+ and hit 20+ HR before the injury. We can use a guy like him. In 3173 PA’s with the Tigers he’s only struck out 380 times – career 7385 PA’s 811 SO’s total. That’s pretty good for a guy who’s been playing in the MLB for 14 seasons.
I agree with you, he may get off to a slow start, but i think that’s pretty characteristic of him anyway. 2010 was more the exception than the rule. Time will tell. He is planning on playing sometimes in December in Venezuela, to take the ankle for a test drive.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
I want him back in the 3-spot
It’s less protection for Miguel, but I think the amount of times Magglio will get on base will offset that lack of protection. Plus, hitting in front of Miguel will take pressure off of Magglio to drive in runs. Trying to hit for power might not be the best thing for a guy coming off of an ankle injury.
by handsomerob1 on Oct 23, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
However
on the upside of that, I think it will prevent so many IBB’s for Miguel. Remember before Magg’s injury, Miguel had only been walked 8 times through July 24th (I did some research and those 8 IBB came after Maggs had either doubled, homered or struck out) Then 5 times in the same week of the injury and 19 times after that. If Maggs can move the guys around the base pads for Miguel, in the long run it may help his numbers. Miguel has said he wants Magglio back, probably for the same reasons we all do. Hopefully Maggs ankle is healing as well as he clams it is and MAYBE, DD will listen to Miguel’s request. It’s important to keep you #1 happy. Isn’t it?
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
I think where Magglio hits depends on who else is in the lineup
If we sign an Adam Dunn (or other power hitter) to place in the 5-spot, I think Maggs is the best fit for hitting 3rd. If there’s no one else there, Magglio might have to hit 5th for the reasons you mentioned.
by handsomerob1 on Oct 23, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
would be nice to get a power bat behind Miguel
I like Maggs batting 3rd too, but if we could get someone in front of Miguel, but I do think Maggs would do well in the 5 spot. Wish we had Brennan for that. Like back in the day before the whole thing went down the tubes.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
B....
could’ve been an A without injury. I was one of those people who wanted to trade him after the batting title. The years after when he declined I really became annoyed that this did not happen. Last year however, he returned to form with his hitting and (gasp) even made some plays in the field. Very weary of a big deal for this guy coming off ankle surgery. In a DH role maybe, but it seems as I keep saying the Tigers have two types of players. 1. Hitters who can’t field. 2. Fielders who can’t hit. I’d love to see this stop, but I don’t think it will, so see you next year Mags.
Country Strong
Grade A
Mags was on his way to another really good year when he got hurt, so I think he deserves an A. With him in the lineup, who knows, maybe we make the playoffs. Without him we didn’t have a chance. I think (and hope) he’ll be back, for one reason signing him will be less expensive than signing one of the big name FA outfielders that are available. That’s money that can be spent on upgrading the pitching staff.
I'm surprised
I thought you’d give him an A+++
by handsomerob1 on Oct 23, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
i wanted to, but realistically, I can’t.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Maggs!
I’d love to see Maggs back… even if it isn’t the best “baseball” decision. He’s been a great Tiger, and I love routing for him.
If we bring Maggs back and add a new big bat (Dunn, Werth, or V. Martinez), we might score some runs next year.
A lifelong Tigers fan
HEY!!! >:( who gave Maggs an E?? >:(
boo
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
must have been a White Sox fan
I say bring Mags back if the price is right.
One time while a young lad, someone made fun of the Ditka name. One time.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Oct 22, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a grade higher than an A?
Magglio is my favourite Tiger, and I find that it’s sometimes more fun to throw objectivity completely out the window.
by SweetLouDoubleU on Oct 22, 2010 9:44 AM EDT reply actions
he's my favorite too
but I only gave him an A, because Biggy is actually better than him and I gave him an A+. You have to leave favoritism out and be logical :P
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Ordonez gets a B-. He made a good comeback with the bat in the first half before the injury and is an average defender. He would probably get a B+ if not for the injury, but I have to drop him a couple of notches for missed played time.
I believe he will be back with the Tigers next year, but it depends on what else they do. He’ll be 37, but probably has at least another year in him offensively. He will probably have a difficult time recovering completely from his injury and may have to do some DHing. If he has to be a full-time DH, that could conflict with other possible signings.
Grade B, but the Tigers need to either extend Magglio or replace him AND get that bat to protect Cabrera
Let’s get something straight first. Magglio is far more important to the Tigers than Adam Dunn or his ilk will ever be! 300 Avg, .378 OBP ahead of Miggy, and on pace for his usual 20 HR and 100 RBI before he got injured. There aren’t a dozen players in all of MLB with those numbers for a full season. Maybe Ordonez doesn’t put up that stat line if he stayed healthy, but he was an invaluable part of the Tiger offense and a primary reason for them hanging around first place until the break.
Simply adding a bat to protect Cabrera in the five slot, but not replacing Magglio in the 3 slot would be a net downgrade in the lineup. Unfortunately, Maggs has an agent that likes to hold out, hold out, and hold out. He’ll invent other bidders for his clients, even if they don’t exist. Maggs should get something in the range of $ 7- 9 mil for one year, or $ 15 mil for two. DD should get it done.
For his grade, I don’t rate players “for the time they played” or “for a bench player” or “for a rookie”. It’s not his fault that he spent half the season on the DL, but a B grade under the circumstances is dam impressive! Bring him back!
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
C, and don't want him back
he has been in decline since 2008…that Raburnesq OPS 852 is not enough to justify the 10 million plus he will get. Ankle injury messes with rehab plans and at 37, tigers can do better. I’d low ball him in arb with a one year contract and hope for the draft picks. Worse case scenario is that all you folks that want him back will be pleased.
"Always 1984"
so the worst case scenario is that we get a solid hitting DH type who can still play the field when needed?
and the best case scenario is that Magglio Ordonez plays like the Magglio we’ve always had?
I’ll take it.
Not quite.
The worst case scenario is we loss Dunn to another team because we took away the only position he’s qualified to play in the AL. I don’t buy the idea of giving him arbitration though, especially low-balling him. Arbitration hearings rarely a players salary a significant margin. Magglio is very much a player that would accept arbitration if offered. We’d price him right off the market if we did.
Either let him man right field another year, or let him walk.
by FrankHarrison on Oct 22, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
My point is that the only position Adam Dunn is qualified to play is DH. If we decide to bring back Magglio, our worst case scenario is that he can no longer play right field and is forced to occupy the DH role, taking away Adam Dunn from our thoughts.
by FrankHarrison on Oct 22, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Dunn...
but I don’t like him to the point where having Magglio become the DH is suddenly terrible.
Best case scenario, 2 draft picks, money for younger star
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 22, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't work that way
The Tigers are not offering arbitration. Magglio Ordonez earned $18M in 2009. His stats are good enough to rank him as an "A" according to a projection of what the Elias Bureau’s formula will say. If the Tigers offered him arbitration and he accepted, there is absolutely no shot at draft picks. That’s how the rules work. If they offered, he accepted, and they low balled while his agent asked for a relatively reasonable figure above $10m, the arbitration panel would side with Ordonez. His agent, remember, is Scott Boras, who is pretty good at making a presentation. But the Tigers wouldn’t low ball anyway, so your point is moot.
Either way, you’re unhappy because the Tigers have Ordonez and no draft picks, and they’re almost certainly paying him more for that reason than he’d have otherwise earned.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 22, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
We’d be nuts to offer him arbitration, and the Tigers hate it (at least historically).
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Oct 23, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
detriot would be nuts to sign him,
but if they try to sign him, why not offer arb to get the picks. He gets maybe 2-3 million over open market. That is the pinultimate consequence, if they sign him. I have to disagree with you kurt. What is your value on a first round choice? Or is it that the 5 tool players rarely work out, anyway?
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 23, 2010 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he could demand 12-16M in arbitration and get it
I think his fair market price is 6-8M.
That’s a difference of 4-10M.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
What do you have to disagree with?
I just explained how arbitration works.
Read this:
http://www.suite101.com/content/how-baseball-arbitration-works-a45599
Also, penultimate means “next to last.”
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 23, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A "C"
Geeze Hack Im starting to wonder about you. The other day you wanted to keep Gerald Laird as our backup catcher, now your not sue you want to keep a solid proven ball player. Are we looking at the same teamA? No disrespect intended.
by blueleo1 on Oct 22, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
rec'd
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
by Detroitchik on Oct 22, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Context, context, only after D-
want the draft pick
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 22, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Magglio Ordoñez
is hardly Raburn-esque, they are even the same catagory of ball players. You’re comparing a 6x All Star, 3x Silver Slugger and the 2007 batting champ to a platoon player. Decline since 2008? He finished the 2008 season with a .317 BA and his OBP was .376. The worst season he’s ever had was 2009 and he finished that strong, the first half is mostly what effected his #’s. In 2009 he finished in the top ten hitters in MLB and in 2008 (the year of his afore mentioned decline) …he finished #5.
Had he not been sidelined he would have finished in the top 10 this season too; based on his .303 BA he would have finished #10 ahead of VMart and probably higher than that if he continued to play the whole season. The only reason he’s not on the stats list for 2010 is because he didn’t have the required # of plate appearences. His entire career he’s finished the season in the top 20 hitters in the MLB – so if he’s on the decline, I don’t see it. And if that’s what’s considered decline, I’ll take it.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Maglio vs Raburn
2009 OPS Maglio 804 Raburn 891
2010 Maglio 852 Raburn 814
2009 Salary Maglio 18.9 mil, Raburn 400K
2010 Maglio 17.8mil, Raburn 438K
With the ankle he is headed for the DH duty at 37. He would have been there this year without great conditioning in the offseason that he won’t get this year with the ankle. There are only 2 positions left to improve Tigers offense with Raburn, Peralta , Avila, and Inge sloted. DH has by far the most impact players available, like Thome OPS 1034 for 1.5m last year. Sign Maglio for DH and the (Difference Making) options are Werth, Crafford, or a trade. Doubt either of these guys will be available, there is a lot of competition, for these overpriced players. Notice DD said they have not been given a budget yet.
I respect everyone’s sentimental attachment to Maglio, I still don’t want him back.
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 22, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Your also
comparing 2009 – a first half played poorly and 2010 a first half played only. I am not saying he’s worth 15m. You’re not sure what position they’ll offer him if he is re-signed. No one is. But I can guarantee he’ll be paid more than 1.5m that Thome was given. Because of the ankle he may only DH, that’s my guess too. But We’re all just speculating.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Solid A+
It would be tragic to let our 2nd best hitter on the team leave like we did our second basemen from last year. I say give Mags $10 mil 2 year deal. And thats 10 mil per year. He deserves it. What? Some of you say he’s not worth it? Well look at the money we put out vs the production we got back from Gary Shitfield, Bondo, Willis, Jones, Renteria, Robertson. These guys alone are around some teams entire payroll for what we paid them. There are going to be some teams knocking on Mags door age and ankle and all. (See Gary Shefield and Manny Ramierz). I say bring Mags back, start him at DH give him time for his ankle to heel and then put him back in the outfiled. Besides, I want to thank you Mags for giving me one of my best Tiger memories. When you hit that homerun to put us in the WS in 2006 it was awesome. I jumped out of my chair 10 feet the very instance that ball came off your bat I knew right away it was a no doubter and going to be gone and we were going to the WS.
He won't demand 10M, why give it to him?
He can probably be had for 2 yr / 15M total at most. He’s got a lot of competition in the fact that there are several hitters who are seen as old, good bat/poor glove types.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
He wont demand it?
You obviously dont know who his agent is, or how his agent operates. Of course he’ll demand at least that and can make a good argument about his numbers since he’s been a Tiger other then when he was on the DL.
this is why he’s playing baseball in Venezuela in December, he wants to show he’s “still got it”
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
glad for that, ok open mind again, good point
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 22, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He might start by seeking 10M, but there just simply isn't a market to justify this
He’ll end up signing for under 10M. My guess is 8M/1yr or 15M/2yr
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I think it will be a big higher than that
Most likely he ends up around 2/18 with an option I believe.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 23, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
that's my guess too
or possibly a bit lower with lots of incentives.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
by Detroitchik on Oct 23, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he'll get 18m for one year
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
by Detroitchik on Oct 23, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
B.
The think a lot of you guys are getting suckered in by not looking at his body of work for the season. If I showed up to half of my work schedule and was extremely good when I showed up to work, I’d still be fired. This is a terrible analogy, it still serves a point. It’s really hard to say Magglio is a “A student” when he only played half the season. While this is certainly not his fault, it’s not something you can just ignore either. He gets an even B from me. And I feel a bit generous giving that…
However, I’m not opposed to seeing Magglio back in right field next year. He’s probably below average in true ability, (I’ve never been much of a fan of UZR) but it’s a marginal dip below average compared to what he brings to the plate. His bat is more then worth the slightly less then average right field ability.
Magglio as a free agent would probably fetch 1-5 or 1-6. Most teams see him as a full-time DH and will pay him thusly. Offering him a 1-8 deal with some incentives is more then a fair offer for Magglio. There is no reason to offer him more then a one year deal anymore. It wasn’t too long ago people were talking about cutting Magglio to avoid seeing his option vest. Lets learn from that little scare and not open ourselves up to something like that again.
by FrankHarrison on Oct 22, 2010 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If you got injured halfway through the year and couldn't perform your job
You wouldn’t go to work either.
by handsomerob1 on Oct 23, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
also
its not like the injury was something that could have been helped. This is why they have the DL list. It’s for player’s who are injured and can not perform their jobs That’s why the Title of the article is called :
Magglio Ordonez’s awesome season cut way too short
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
A
Look at the byline. I’m obviously not going to think rationally about this one.
Mascot of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Although I would write a note on his report card
mentioning that I am concerned about the decreased awesomeness of his hair
Mascot of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
by Dale S on Oct 22, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I gave him an incomplete.
My reason: he cut his hair. That is a crime that shall not stand!
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
ya, the hair was Magic like Damon's
"Always 1984"
by Hack Johnson on Oct 22, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Does everyone remember why he cut his hair?
by SweetLouDoubleU on Oct 23, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Magglio?
Mainly for his wife if I recall, though he was also in a slump and ready for a change for other reasons.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 23, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ouch!
If I showed up to half of my work schedule and was extremely good when I showed up to work, I’d still be fired.
If you showed up to half of your work schedule, was extremely good when you showed up, and missed the rest of your work schedule due to an on-the-job injury, you wouldn’t be fired—you’d be collecting worker’s compensation
I agree with the sentiment
What kind of analogy is that?
This is professional sports. Not a job. Not an educational institution. Injuries happen. It’s part of the profession.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 22, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I gave him a B
The injury is a big deal. It’s kinda unfair to punish him for it, but I still feel it’s necessary to distinguish him from Miggy/The Cleaner.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
A
I hope the Tigers resign him to a one year contract. If he wants a longer contract, let him go. An option for another year would be all-right. He can still hit the ball all over the park & drive in runs, so keep him if possible.
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