Detroit Tigers Top 25 Prospects

Before we begin, a word about my prospecting biases.  I don't pay much attention to anything below the full-season leagues (West Michigan and higher).  I'm more a stats guy than a scouting report guy, though I try to pay attention to both.  I take criticism well, so please use the comments to apply it liberally.  Where statistics are used, they are the player's combined 2010 minor league statistics, unless otherwise noted.

(This has also been posted at SBN's www.minorleagueball.com)

1.  Jacob Turner, RHP, Grade A

Turner had as good a professional debut as anyone could have hoped.  His command/control looks better than expected (only 1.8 BB/9 across two levels).  Some were undoubtedly disappointed by "only" 8 K/9 across the two levels.

2.  Andy Oliver, LHP, Grade B+

Oliver more than handled an aggressive assignment at AA, though he should not have been pushed to AAA/MLB.  The strikeouts were there (8.2 K/9 in AA and AAA), but he walks too many (3.5 BB/9) and he gives up a few too many HR (0.9 HR/9).  Though he still seems to be relying primarily on his excellent FB/CH combo, I've heard that he made good strides in rediscovering his missing breaking pitch.

3.  Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade B

A lost season for Crosby.  He's already come back once from a missing season; hopefully he can do it again.

4.  Nick Castellanos, 3B, Grade B

As high as I am willing to go on nothing but scouting reports and a few PAs in rookie ball (though both look promising).  I'm excited to see what he can do in a full season.  It definitely looks like he has the highest ceiling of Detroit's position prospects.

5.  Dan Schlereth, LHP, Grade B

As high as I'm willing to go on a reliever who walks every batter he faces (6.2 BB/9 in AAA).  Love the strikeouts, though (10.2 K/9 in AAA).  Highest upside among Detroit's relief prospects.

6.  Brayan Villareal, RHP, Grade B

Plenty of strikeouts (9.5 K/9), okay walk rate (2.7 BB/9), too many HR (1.0 HR/9).  One of my favorite Tiger prospects.

7.  Adam Wilk, LHP, Grade B-

The anti-Andy Oliver: mediocre raw stuff, low walk rate (1.3 BB/9 in Adv-A and AA), low K rate (6.1 K/9), low HR rate (0.5 HR/9).  He's handled every level he's faced despite mediocre stuff.  He has the best control/command in the system, and (if he doesn't hit his developmental wall in AAA) he should make a fine back-of-the-rotation starter.  Another personal favorite.

8.  Daniel Fields, CF, Grade B-

Fields handled an aggressive assignment in the Florida State League despite being one of its youngest players (age 19).  Reports on his defense are good, and it sounds like he has excellent raw speed (though this hasn't translated to the basepaths--he's been caught stealing more times than he's been successful).  He took lots of walks (in more than 12.5% of his PAs), struck out a lot (in more than 30% of his ABs), and he flashed some occasional power (.131 ISO).  Another personal favorite.

9.  Francisco Martinez, 3B, Grade B-

Martinez provides an interesting contrast to Fields.  Both played in the FSL at age 19, though Martinez showed better contact and baserunning instincts, while Fields showed better power and patience.  If all goes well, he could be an average to slightly above Major League third baseman who hits for a good average, steals some bases, and provides solid defense.  Think pre-2010 Chone Figgins (without all the walks).

10.  Charlie Furbush, LHP, Grade B-

Destroyed Advanced A, handled AA, met his match in AAA.  He'll certainly start the year in AAA, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him take Galarraga's spot in the Tigers' rotation before too long.

11.  Casper Wells, RHP, Grade B-

May be an aggressive grade for a 25 year old who just got his first taste of the big leagues after struggling in AAA to begin the year, but I really like Wells.  He's an above average fielder in the corners with loads of power and decent patience.  At worst, he's an above average fourth outfielder who can play all three OF positions and provide some pop off the bench.  At best, he's an average to above regular with a low BA, middling OBP, and high SLG.

12.  Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Grade C+

Should be a good middle reliever.  His first taste of the big leagues looks worse (6.14 ERA) than it actually was (3.47 FIP).

13.  Cole Nelson, LHP, Grade C+

Good stuff, high upside, need data

14.  Alex Burgos, LHP, Grade C+

Good stuff, high upside, need data

15.  Ryan Strieby, 1B/LF, Grade C+

Will his wrist ever be healthy?  Can he cut down the strikeouts?

16.  Lester Oliveros, RHP, Grade C+

Good raw stuff, lots of strikeouts.  Health issues and control/command issues are concerns

17.  Zach Simons, RHP, Grade C+

Will he ever get his well-deserved shot?

18.  Brandon Douglas, 2B, Grade C+

Had a really good year--high BA, some walks and gap power.

19.  Wade Gaynor, 3B, Grade C

Handled single-A, but probably not as well as we might have hoped for a 22-year old, 3rd round pick.

20.  Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Grade C

He might still have a shot in Detroit's rotation, but with the strong SP in the system, it's looking less and less likely.  If he makes it, it will probably be in the bullpen with occasional spot starts.

21.  Rob Brantly, C, Grade C

Did okay at single-A West Michigan.  Relatively high-upside catcher who hits for a good average with good plate discipline.

22.  Rawley Bishop, 1B, Grade C

He's done well, but he's probably too old for his competition, and 1B is not a good place to be if you are a Tigers prospect.

23.  Danny Worth, SS, Grade C

All glove, no bat.  Could be the next Adam Everett, but more likely just a backup infielder.

24.  Bryan Holaday, C, Grade C

I've heard his leadership skills touted, which is a good thing if your ceiling is an MLB backup catcher.

25.  Andy Dirks, OF, Grade C

Could be a decent fourth outfielder, but probably nothing more.

Others: Audy "SS of the Future" Ciriaco, Brent Dlugach, Casey Fien, L. J. Gagnier, Cale "Future All-Star" Iorg, Jamie Johnson, Corey Jones, Ramon Lebron, Luis Marte, Melvin Mercedes, John Murrian, Billy Nowlin, Gustavo "SS of the Future" Nuñez, P. J. Polk, Gabriel Purroy, Bruce Rondon, Austin Wood

The strengths and weaknesses of Detroit's system should be abundantly clear.  Pitching is the obvious strength, but the Tigers' system is a position player pauper (pardon the terrible alliteration).  With Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello locked up for at least another four years--and with some good starters coming up through the minors (Turner, Oliver, Crosby, Villarreal, Wilk, and Furbush)--the Tigers have the makings of one hell of a starting rotation in a few years.  The positional depth is pretty bleak, though.  With the exceptions of Castellanos, Fields, and Martinez, there are very few high upside players in the minor league ranks.  There is also very little depth in the high minors in case the injury bug strikes (which, with Carlos Guillen still on the Tigers' roster, will surely happen).

So, who did I miss?  Who have I overrated?  Who have I underrated?  Was I too generous in handing out the B-/C+ grades?