Casper Wells made the best of his second chance
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 1, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintEvery weekday between now and mid-November, we'll be looking closer at a Tigers player. For more information on the series, including a schedule, please check this post out.
Like Scott Sizemore, Casper Wells is another player I included in the grading more for the process of looking at his season for future reference rather than for giving him a letter grade. After all, he played in just 36 of 162 games, and didn't even get to 100 plate appearances for the season. He did play quite well when he played, but he just wasn't around for much of the season.
The big reason I decided to include him is that Wells has a fair shot at breaking camp with the team in the outfield. With the Tigers targeting middle-of-the-order players in free agency, Wells will have little to no shot to make the team as a starter. But stranger things have happened, right? He fields well and he hits well and -- uh-oh I'm starting to feel like I'm writing about Matt Joyce -- I could see him starting. He would also make either a valuable player off the bench or the first player called up from the minor leagues if anyone stumbles or is injured.
Obviously the only grade I can give him is incomplete. But his short time with the team would have been a B+ or better, I'm sure.
At the plate:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | Pos | Awards | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 25 | DET | AL | 36 | 99 | 93 | 14 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | .323 | .364 | .538 | .901 | 142 | ||||||||
| 1 Season | 36 | 99 | 93 | 14 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | .323 | .364 | .538 | .901 | 142 | |||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 446 | 419 | 63 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 77 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 86 | .323 | .364 | .538 | .901 | 142 | |||||||||||
Wells had a short audition with the team in May, and hit just 2-for-9 during that time. Detroit wasn't the only place he struggled either. Wells hit pretty poorly with Triple-A Toledo for most of the time he was there, too. It wasn't until he took a few days away from the game in July due to the death of his grandmother that things started falling into place for him.
"It just made me realize there are things more important in life than me worrying about myself and baseball."
It took a bit longer after that, but then he relaxed and started seeing the ball well. He began getting the results you'd expect for a guy who hit pretty well during his minor league career. As you can see, when he returned to Detroit for the final two months or so of the season he hit for extra-base power, hit for average, found other ways to get on base. He was good. What else can you really say?
In the article the quote came from Johnny Damon thought Wells could be a starting right fielder in the MLB.
In the field:
Wells didn't really run up enough innings to have defensive stats tell you a story. I will note he had four outfield assists in 41 games (21 games started), so that's a nice one anyway. The 2010 Scouting Report by the fans had just one vote, so that won't do us much good anyway.
The eyes say he fields well enough to start in right field. So that's good enough for me.
What 2010 tells us about 2011:
I think only the very optimistic would expect an OPS of better than .900 from Wells. He had an OPS of .829 during his minor league career, and that includes a rather pedestrian 2010 season. He didn't have a fantastic average during his minor league career, but he made up for it with extra-base power.
If given a full season of plate appearances, I would expect to see a player who can hit double-figures for home runs but won't be up in the 30s or anything. He knows how to work his way on base by taking a walk, too.
Wells is a pretty good package for a player, and probably should be starting somewhere. I just don't think he'll be starting in Detroit.
Resources:
I used Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs and The Baseball Cube. Also glanced at TangoTiger's scouting report.
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B
and if he can do all season what he did after he was called up, it’ll be an A next season.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
"for his playing time"
How is if he does, what he did this year (after he was called up), all next year, a valid reason to give him a B when the chart says for his playing time? Do you think he should have hit .350 with nine homers so maybe that will translate into like better numbers next year? Lol, just arguing because its better than watching old ex-tigers kick some ace for the Giants, BOO!
by Fien SHOULD CLOSE on Nov 1, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
actually
I did say his playing time and my hope is that he’ll make the roster out of spring training. Avreraging him over a full season would give him somewhere in the neighborhood of 77 RBI, 18 HR and 135 hits.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
which isn't too shabby
and it may translate to better numbers than my guesstimate
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Hard to project that far
If Casper gets a full time gig, he’d be facing more righties as a percentage of the pitchers he sees, and there would be that dreaded “book” that the scouts write on how to pitch to him. Ask Mr. Boesch about that one.
I see Raburn having first crack at one corner outfield spot and DD probably signing or trading for another OF and a DH. That will leave one or two spots for outfielders, or one OF and one swing man such as Kelly or los Carlos. Boesch, Wells, and Clete Thomas are in the mix for that other roster spot. Things happen, too, and maybe DD can’t get the OF that he wants, so there’s another starting gig up for grabs, or maybe there is an injury that creates an opening. Either way, the roster really goes about 32 deep to get through a full season, and we’ll be seeing plenty of Casper in Detroit next season, IMO.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
thats why i said its my hope
I do think if he gets a full season in, those are the numbers you’ll see, or better.
President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign
Agree
I think you will see AT LEAST one free agent signed for the OF. The team may go after a big signing, like Crawford or Werth. If not, I would hope for Maggs or another similar player (good bad, fair glove, old enough for short term signing).
If they land Crawford or Werth, I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Maggs back in RF, which has Wells, Boesch, Raburn, and other vying for OF4 and DH time.
My hope is that they sign Crawford or Werth and Maggs. Then, leave the DH spot open for Raburn, Boesch, Wells, and others. Someone will step up and hit.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Full Season
Looking for advice from others, but I’d estimate “full-season” at 600PA or more, which is 6+ times his 2010 PA. That gives him 24 or more HR to go with 100+ RBI.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
if he hit at the same rate. But given his minor league rate I wouldn’t expect him too. It’s not unheard of, but I just wouldn’t expect it.
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 1, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
B
I really like Wells and think he would be a good option in the field. I don’t want to go as far as Damon did and say he is a starting OF just yet, I’d like to see him get more time in first. But I do like him at least as a platoon for a year or so.
In his little time last year I had to give him a B. I thought he did pretty good and made the best of what he got.
Grade B
I prefer to give grades for the time spent, no matter how small of a representation, as opposed to an incomplete. Casper produced given his limited opportunities, so I gave him a B. As far as making the team next spring, I think it depends on who gets signed as a FA and how BB does next spring. Maybe he’s a late bloomer and next spring he knocks our socks off. That would be a pleasant surprise.
Incomplete
Not enough time, and I don’t grade on “for this” or “for that”. If he were to get a grade, he didn’t hit many homers or drive in many runs by comparison with other major league outfielders. I like Casper and his future, but it’s too soon to grade him at the major league level. I think that he may even be second on the depth chart in CF, should something happen to AJax, and maybe second to Raburn for a starting gig in one of the corner OF spots. He doesn’t have the upside of Brennan Boesch (nor does Raburn), so there’s that factor as well. I see him as a fourth outfielder, and as of today, the most likely candidate to claim a roster spot in the outfield along with Raburn, even if the Tigers add a DH and another corner OF this winter. He has a future in the major leagues.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Still Hoping!!
I’m still hoping the Tigers DON’T sign another OF and DH in order for Wells and Boesch to start with Andy Dirks as the fourth OF. A 100% Ryan Strieby could be as good as any DH they could sign. Hats Off to SF who achieved a 4 man home grown pitching staff that wins. Maybe the Tigers could aim…….
A, give Casper a shot
Wonder how many baseball pundits were winners in Vegas this year picking a SF/Texas World Series. Bet close to none.
"Always 1984"
sometime I'm going to have to change my sig. le sigh.
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
When the opening day roster is announced, maybe your sig can be "Free at Last! Thank God Almighty, He's Free At Last!"
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
hahaha, something to that effect maybe
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
I give him a B+ for his brief stint this season. I’m skeptical that he can be a starter though. He has a history of being very streaky and I think he just happened to hit one of his hot streaks at the right time. He doesn’t make enough contact but I do think he has a chance to be a good fourth outfielder, who can play all four positions and hit for power.
Eh
Incomplete, and I’ll caution everyone once again.
Casper is a good player who can hit .260 and an above average OBP with 20 bombs and good defense in the corners or an average CF. That’s not too terribly bad- but imagine that out of a fourth outfielder. Good, franchise level clubs have that type of player off the bench for a reason. Factor in his platoon split (he hits lefties better) and he’d definitely make a better bench player.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
Or...
He might make good trade bait with Ryan Raburn.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Why trade those guys?
Seriously- the return’s going to suck and it’s not like we’re paying them much. Might as well keep em on the bench and hope to catch lightning in a bottle or get good bench production.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
well, you don't know that the return is going to suck
who had matt joyce being moved for edwin jackson?
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 1, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say trade them for nothing...
But Wells is a decent prospect and Raburn could have a very good bat for a team. I think we’re in a position where:
A) We have money to spend
B) We won’t be spending it all on the Free Agent Market
C) There are teams looking to dump salary
Raburn and Wells are both appealing options for this situation. Both are pretty cheap and have a very good chance at providing major league value very soon. I think they’re good trade chips if we’re looking for a guy like Grienke. I know that Grienke probably couldn’t be had for Raburn / Wells, but if we’re willing to package one or both of them with a decent SP prospect, we may be able to avoid dealing Turner or Oliver and still get a front-line player.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t hit more than .260. Andy Dirks could platoon with him also. I’m assuming no free agent signing. If Strieby is 100%, he’s my DH. Then I’d have to wait for a DL to bring Dirks up, unless Wells flunks. It’s obviously all hopes on my part as I only deal in what the Tigers, in my opinion, SHOULD do.
by StephenGrosberg on Nov 2, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
C+
Once again small sample, but has a nice bat seems adequate on defense. Probably about the same as Boesh. That said, I’d like to see more. If he has a good spring who knows.
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