There's an Elephant in the Room!

The greatest need that the Detroit Tigers have this off season is for a starting pitcher, and moving Phil Coke to the rotation doesn't answer any questions.   The Tigers had the 12th best pitching staff in 2010, with a gaudy 4.30 team ERA, in a 14 team league. The Tigers had the 11th ranked rotation ERA, with a lofty 4.46 posted by their starting pitching.

While the Tiger lineup is not without its' issues, the Tigers did rank fourth in batting average, they scored some 30 runs above the league's team average, they were fourth in hits, fifth in OBP, and in the top half of the league in virtually every major offensive category.  In fact, once the adjustments had been made to the lineup (albeit much too late) following the season ending injuries to some key players, the Detroit Tigers actually led the league in runs scored for the months of August and September combined.   

 

This is not to minimize the issues that Dave Dombrowski will face in finding replacements for Johnny Damon and Magglio Ordonez, or in finding some protection in the lineup for the world's best RBI man.   The point here is that all the focus in the media that follows the Tigers has been about the lineup.  It's been about "A middle of the order bat".   Fact is, they need two bats just to break even, but even that does nothing to address what was the Tigers' single biggest problem in 2010:   Pitching.  

If anyone thinks that the Tigers had an adequate rotation once Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello  got themselves sorted out in Toledo, think again.   No question that Mad Max and Rick both pitched much better in the second half of the season, but it wasn't enough to save what was a dismal rotation, dragged down by two gaping holes at the back end.  The Tigers were no better after the All Star break, posting a 4.31 ERA in the second half.  Opponents hit .262 against the Tigers for the season, .263 after the break.  

While Verlander and Scherzer delvered a solid one- two punch after the break, with dual WHIP rates of 1.14, and ERAs of 2.89 and 2.47 respectively, the back end let the team down.   Porcello posted a second half ERA of 4.00, even while putting up a WHIP of 1.16.  With a K/ 9 rate of just 4.97, and only allowing 16 BB's in 92 innings, too many runs were scored.   Bonderman and Galarraga were even worse, with ERA's of 4.52 and 6.50, and lofty WHIP rates of 1.36 and 1.61.  (WHIP is essentially the number of base runners allowed per inning, excluding errors).   In his lone start, Phil Coke gave up an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.59, which proves nothing, except my point. 

While we read and listen to various reports in the media regarding the Tigers' plans for this off season, all the focus is on V Mart, Crawford, and Werth.  That's all well and good, but what about that huge elephant in the living room?   He's smelling up the joint and shaking the foundation of the team.  The Tigers should not bet their playoff hopes on Phil Coke solving the problems in their rotation.   Moving Coke to the rotation only guarantees one thing, and that is they'll need a second reliever for the late innings to set up Valverde, since Coke was the only reliable one they had in 2010.  With some $ 34 million allocated to starting pitchers that are no longer on the team, the Tigers can afford to invest in the rotation.  In fact, they can't afford not to upgrade the rotation.

So what are the options? 

Free agents:  Cliff Lee is obviously the premier starting pitcher on the market this off season, and there's no close second.   However, he'll cost upwards of $ 150 million for six years if the Tigers want to make a run at him.  And he'd cost a first round draft pick, but if they were in line to land Lee, that wouldn't be an issue.  It looks very much like the Yankees are going to throw their financial weight around and out bid all other teams for Lee's services.  Like his daddy before him, little Hanky Steinbrenner figures "if you can't beat em, BUY em!"

After Lee, you can count on one hand the number of free agent starters that had a decent season in 2010.  

- Hiroki Kuroda is 35 years old and might be had on a two year deal, but the perception is that he's probably the next best starting pitcher with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in a very thin market.  He could get a raise on his $ 13 million salary, but may be worth it if he takes his nice numbers to the AL.  

-Carl Pavano is a Type A free agent, meaning that if the Twins were to offer him arbitration, Detroit would reward their rivals by giving them the best possible compensation they could get for losing Pavano- the No. 19 overall draft pick.   I don't see that scenario happening, but if Pavano were available no strings attached, I'd go after him hard.  

- Jon Garland logged 200 innings for San Diego with a respectable 3.47 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.   The former Angels and White Sox starter had success in the AL before switching leagues.

Well, folks, that's it for free agent relievers with an ERA under 4.00.  Jake Westbrook is potentially a No. 3 or 4 guy with a 4.22 ERA and a pedestrian 1.34 WHIP ratio.  Andy Pettite figures to go back to New York or retire.  There is Vicente Padilla who is effective when he isn't on the DL, and there are reclamation projects such as Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, and Erik Bedard, but the odds of any of them lasting a season, if they pitch at all, might be 50/ 50.  

- Jorge DeLaRosa looks like the best of the lefties for those that are fixated on which arm a guy throws with, but he looks like the next Oliver Perez to me.  After winning 16 games just two seasons ago, DLR pitched only 121 innings in 2010, and posted a 4.22 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP.   All of the above are looking for multi year contracts with the exception of the basket cases, who may take an incentive laden deal in the hope of improving their value in a year. 

That leaves the trade market, which is led by a group that I call the G men.   Zach Greinke is the leader of this group.  With two years left on his contract, the Royals don't figure to be able to keep their former Cy Young winner long enough to do anything meaningful on the field as a team, and he's expressed a desire to get out of Dodge.  He'd probably cost Rick Porcello plus Jacob Turner, which is too high in my book.  Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, and Gio Gonzalez are pitchers that may be spun off by their current clubs because of salary and arbitration concerns.   All are as good, IMO, as any free agent starter other than Lee, and I think that the Tigers have to get active- very active in pursuing one of these pitchers.   These same clubs all have other players that might be available in a package deal:  Guthrie + Luke Scott, Garza + Bartlett or Zobrist, Greinke + David DeJesus.  They won't come cheap- proven pitchers never are inexpensive, but if the Tigers hope to have any chance of contending in 2011, they need to upgrade their rotation.