Arbitration: The Final Tally

 

After all the hoopla, all the guessing whether clubs would offer arbitration, and all the wondering which players would accept, the final tally is in.  There were 65 Type A and Type B free agents this year.  35 of those were offered arbitration by their former clubs. Two players accepted.   Two!   The rest will test the waters of free agency this winter.

Only Frank Francisco of the Rangers and Jason Frasor of the Jays, both relievers, and both Type A free agents, have accepted the arbitration offers of their former clubs.   Another pitcher, Jorge de la Rosa, has already worked out a multi year deal with the Rockies and will not be testing the free agent waters this winter, but 32 of the 35 players that were offered arbitration declined and decided to try their luck on the open market, most of them searching for a multi year contract. 

 

 

It's no coincidence that the only two players to accept arbitration offers were Type A relief pitchers.   Relievers are in their own category, so the top 20 per cent of all relievers over a two year period will be graded Type A.  The fact is that the top relief pitchers are simply not as valuable as the top starting pitchers, the top outfielders, or the top infielders.  Those that are designated as Type A but are not truly elite pitchers will struggle to find a team willing to give them a multi year contract AND give up a top draft pick.   If they hope to play for a winner, that would be a first round pick.  A year ago, Rafael Soriano surprised the Braves by accepting arbitration, forcing them to trade him.   This year, he declined and will seek a multi year deal.    Two years ago, Darren Oliver was the only player to accept arbitration.   A year later, he wasn't offered.   Yes, he was a Type A reliever. 

 There were a few "gentlemen's agreements", where a player agrees to be offered and decline the offer of arbitration so that the former club can get a supplemental draft pick or two as compensation.   It is believed that Brad Hawpe and Javier Vazquez are two such cases.   They surely stood to benefit financially by accepting arbitration rather than trying to land a contract coming off a poor season.  The Yankees will get a supplemental first round pick for losing Vazquez, and that's a pick that is protected no matter how many Type A free agents they sign.  It's my view that these "gentlemen's agreements" should be banned.   They are disingenuous offers and they rig the draft process.  Even if policing would be difficult, MLB should not sanction the practice. 

The Rays are an interesting study in the arbitration racket this winter.  The sandwich pick that they'll receive for a two month rental of Brad Hawpe is   one of ten extra draft picks they stand to pick up for losing players to free agency.  Seven of those picks will come in the supplemental first round, while three will come from the clubs that sign Crawford, Balfour and Soriano, and those will be late first or early second round picks.   TEN picks!   

The Tigers?   Did not offer arbitration to any of their pending free agents, did not make any gentlemanly deals, and will not only not be adding any of the 32 sandwich round picks that will be awarded in June's draft, but will lose their first round pick for signing Victor Martinez.  In fact, that second round pick will have to wait a little bit longer this year because of those 32 sandwich round picks, so it's more like a third rounder.  

A remedy?  Blow off this draft, for now at least.   Go for broke and sign two or three more Type A free agents.   Need a lefty reliever?  Scott Downs is the best one out there, but teams may shy away from him because they'll have to give up a top pick for him.   Not the Tigers!   Downs would only cost them the 83rd pick or so.   Next, sign Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth for the outfield.   Not only would the lineup be looking sweet, but the defense would be seriously upgraded.  You won't find talent like that at pick No. 113! Then, Carl Pavano would look better on the Tigers than he does beating the Tigers like a rented mule!   There's a bonus on this one- Pavano would only net the Twinkies a fourth round pick (plus the sandwich they'd get anyway) for losing one of their starters to a division rival.  Say good bye to the 143rd pick!

This June's draft is said to be one of the deeper ones in memory.   It's a shame that the Tigers won't be participating for the premium talent, but maybe they don't need to have top picks to get the top picks.  Maybe they can go "over slot".  Find some kid that has his heart set on a college education, the best college recruit in the country, and buy him off.    Make him offer he can't refuse. Give the kid so much money that he can't say no.  College?  Or five million bucks? 

Okay, the odds that Dave Dombrowski goes on a free agent spending spree are about the same as the odds of the Lions making the playoffs this season.  DD did pretty well a year ago, losing his first round pick for signing Jose Valverde, a type A reliever, to the first multi year contract he had given a free agent in four seasons, but then adding two supplemental first round picks by offering arbitration to Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon.  One of those picks landed Nick Castellanos, a legit first rounder who was headed to college at Miami before Dave came wagging the check book.   It's hard to be critical of the decision to not offer arbitration to Laird, Ordonez, or Damon, all of whom would surely get more in arbitration than they'll get as free agents.  But perhaps he could have been a bit more..."gentlemanly"???