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Surveying the Tiger Farm: Second Baseman

Around the beginning of the Winter Meetings, I started taking a look at the Tigers' depth at each of the positions. My pace in completing these looks slowed a little more than originally intended, but I was able to complete my looks at their catchers and first basemen. So it's not exactly an M. Night Shyamalan twist that we've now moved on to second basemen. Not unless one of our prospects turns out to be dead or an alien that plans to take over the world despite having a fatal reaction to a substance that covers 77% of the planet and is readily available wherever people can be found.

Digressions aside, the Tigers's depth at the position took a serious hit when both Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore lost their prospect statuses last season. Their leaving the land of rookies means the Mud Hens don't have any players for us to look at from last season, so we'll jump right in on the SeaWolves.

Star-divide

Erie

Justin Henry, .260/.371/.355, 241 PA, 36 BB, 40 K; Henry has never posted an isolated power (slugging minus batting average) as high as even .100, but last season's totals were a nice bounceback after a dreadful 2009 campaign in Lakeland. It was good enough, in fact, to earn him a call up to Toledo (.269/.345/.333) when he was needed. Henry seems to have a good approach at the plate and decent speed, but his lack of power means he'll need to translate good contact skills into high averages and continue drawing lots of walks. 2011 Outlook: It could depend largely on whether Rhymes or Sizemore start the season in Toledo, but I'd expect him to spend the better part of 2011 with the Hens regardless.

Brandon Douglas, .359/.405/.503, 159 PA, 11 BB, 17 K; I can't wait for this guy to be able to turn in a full season. The most games he's ever played in a year is 83, but he's hit better than .300 everywhere he's been except when he had 19 plate appearances in Erie back in 2008. He doesn't walk a lot and doesn't have a lot of power, but he also makes contact and gets the hits to fall. He's 25, but injuries have been a problem and it's not like the Tigers have been holding him back. He split last season, only his second in full season ball, between Lakeland and Erie. He tore up the FSL (.331/.395/.426), too, but as you can see, hit even better in Erie. 2011 Outlook: I'd love it if the Tigers could get him an everyday utility role in Toledo, but space could be limited with the Hens if he stays in the middle infield.

Lakeland

Alden Carrithers, .359/.464/.423, 267 PA, 43 BB, 29 K; Carrithers is another player for whom time is marching forward a little too quickly. He turned 26 last month and he's earned just half a season as high as Double A. Once he was in Erie, the through the roof numbers you see for Lakeland above were toned down to .262/.378/.310 as his slappy hitting failed to yield nearly as many hits. He'll need those hits to fall to find success because he his career isolated power is just .065 (not surprising at 5'9" and 165 pounds). He does a good job of compensating with a lot of walks, very few strikeouts and good speed but it's certainly questionable that skillset will ever land him a regular gig in the majors. 2011 Outlook: With a logjam at second in the upper levels, it's easy to see why Carrithers saw some time in the outfield the last couple seasons. I'd look for more of the same as he splits 2011 between Erie and Toledo and the Tigers try to find a space for his sparkplug style.

West Michigan

Corey Jones, .360/.450/.460, 226 PA, 17 BB, 27 K; Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have a new top Tigers' prospect at second base. Nobody should get too excited about a half season in West Michigan and Jones is 23 already, but I see Jones as being able to make a more plausible push for the majors than the guys we've discussed already. He's not a defensive whiz, but he's left-handed, has potential with the bat and still has some room for development. 2011 Outlook: I'd hope to see him serving as the starting second baseman in Lakeland. It would be great if he could take a path similar to Sizemore, but without all the time lost to injury.

Jimmy Gulliver, .255/.306/.352, 160 PA, 12 BB, 42 K; Gulliver was added to the Caps' roster midseason as they tried to shake up the roster to fix what had been one of the worst teams in the minors. He ended up ceding the second base job to Jones and serving as the team's utility man. The fact that his production hasn't been sterling, when combined with his age and not having a starting gig, suggests he'll likely be an organizational player. 2011 Outlook: It's harder to get a bead on where utility players will end up, but I'd look for him to be bouncing around the infield for West Michigan or Lakeland.

Connecticut

Alexander Nunez, .223/.265/.328, 287 PA, 14 BB, 76 K; Nunez's numbers from 2010 would have put him in better company with the Tigers' shortstop prospects. Like some of the Tigers' young shortstops, he's talented but has a long way to go to translate that talent to results. Another symptom he shares with the group of shortstops is a tenuous grasp of the strike zone. That problem will ensure his doom if he doesn't make strides in addressing it. He won't turn 21 until May, so there's no rush to write him off but a return to the promise he showed in the GCL in 2009 would be welcome. 2011 Outlook: There might be an opening at West Michigan, but I'd assume his progress during the offseason will tell the Tigers whether he's ready.

GCL Tigers

Peter Miller, .287/.410/.348, 141 PA, 20 BB, 34 K; This would seem to be a pretty typical instance of a college player, already 23 when he signed, coming in to help fill out the GCL roster and excelling against younger competition. It's obviously better that he performs than if he had not, but it also doesn't tell us much about how he'll perform at higher levels in the future. 2011 Outlook: Again, the utility fill-in guys can be placed just about anywhere from the GCL to Lakeland without it meaning much other than they fill a need on the roster. Filling in where needed would seem to be Miller's role in the organization, though.

Positional Outlook

There's going to be some crowding in Toledo and Erie, but that's not really due to the candidates for those rosters being top prospects. Douglas and Carrithers profile more as possible bench players with intriguing skills rather than everyday players. Assigning them with even that major league future is likely optimistic. Jones is intriguing as a relatively high pick who played well in half of a season, but half a season in Grand Rapids leaves him a long way from the majors.

The position lacks a player they can look to as a good bet to take them into the future, but there is good news. They just graduated a couple of second base prospects who might fill that role. The upcoming season will speak a lot to who is the Tigers' future second baseman between Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore, but the Tigers should get serviceable production out of the two. We should also keep in mind that major league second basemen often don't play second base in the minors. Of course, they often do play shortstop and the Tigers are quite a ways away from building up a surplus there.  

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If Rhymes can do this year what he did last year....

I think he could very well be the second baseman of the future. I dont say give up totally on Sizemore but he did absolutley nothing to impress me. Yea, yea, yea, Injury to his ankle. Still. Nothing.

by Cabbyfan on Dec 19, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions  

Sizemore did as much in his rookie season as Polanco did.

He’s a prospect, just as any player with that little experience is.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Dec 19, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

hmmmm.

i hope one of them can do the job……but i still miss polly…he is such an all around awesome pro

by amazenhazen2 on Dec 19, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you got the names mixed up--It was Rhymes who did as much as Polanco.

 Douglas has done everything and SHOULD battle Sizemore for first up. It’’s another Adam Wilk non reward for performance. Why Rhymes is still not highly rated is beyond me. He’s the type of player who wins games like the Billy Martin, Bobby Richardson, but also bats .300 so far. Douglas will do the same as will Corey Jones. Trade Sizemore for value.

by StephenGrosberg on Dec 19, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

No, he didn't.

He said as a rookie, and he is right, stat wise.

I was for the Alexander trade when it happened, and I'd do 'er again!

by 77bestrookieclassever on Dec 19, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore had a bad ankle to start the season

Sizemore was not a 100% to start the year but they traded away Polonco so they gave him the job even JL said he wasn’t ready because of the ankle.Sizemore has more upside than Rhymes as far as power goes.I hope they both do well and maybe they can start playing Sizemore more at third he could replace Inge in two years.

by swish330 on Dec 19, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

what about his next two callups?

Sizemore’s second half numbers were 262 average and 292 on-base percentage. (For contrast, his first-half OBP was 297).

I think there was more to it than the ankle.

by Kurt Mensching on Dec 19, 2010 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

He did not have a good year in the majors

But he has hit at all his minor league stops and shown some power. I think its more typical for rookies to struggle, than to light it up on there first trip to the majors.But i also think that he got off on the wrong ankle to start with.I look for him to look much better this year,but we have Rhymes and Santiago if he can’t cut it.

by swish330 on Dec 19, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

if he earns it, he earns it

but at some point, potential either becomes actual or you have to move on.

by Kurt Mensching on Dec 19, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree but a couple hundred at bat is not a good sample

Will have to see what he can do this year but i have faith in him.I think he’ll bounce back.

by swish330 on Dec 19, 2010 8:20 PM EST up reply actions  

but you just can't hand it to him

In Rhymes, you’ve got a guy who has already performed there and unlike Sizemore can field the position. I think he’s the leader at the post and Sizemore’s going to have to come into spring training and really wow to earn to earn it. You can’t afford to go into the season with a bad glove and a question mark bat.

by Kurt Mensching on Dec 19, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Will does a great job at 2nd

and with Jhonny at SS, we need someone who has range, Will’s proved he can do it there.

President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign

by Detroitchik on Dec 19, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Like Rhymes batting in the #2 spot

I like Rhymes and hope he has a good year and think he fits in the #2 spot.I like him batting behind A Jax’s and in front of Magg’s.When Sizemore plays i think they should bat him towards the bottom of the order don’t want him batting #2.

by swish330 on Dec 19, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Im not handing him anything

Like all the young guy they have to prove they belong and there is more than just Sizemore, that need to prove they can play. But its nice we are finally seeing some fruit from the farm.

by swish330 on Dec 19, 2010 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Small samples. Too small to make any judgments.

Rhymes has to have the edge based on 2010 numbers, but if SS hits better in Lakeland, I think you have to go with him. If Guillen starts the year on the DL, there is room for two middle infielders with Santiago. If Carlos is on the roster, he probably starts, and there’s a competition for one bench slot.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Dec 19, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

We're nowhere near that point yet.

Sizemore has had a whopping 160 PAs so far. That sample size is way too small to be meaningful in any way, and to use it to make proclamations is way off base.

Cabrera was a < .800 OPS guy in his first 160 PAs as a Tiger.

by Nick Galea on Dec 19, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I think some guys

are not cut out for the major leagues. Some do phenomenal in the minors, but something happens to them once they hit MLB. Sizemore could be one of those guys. He’s not a bad player, he’s just not cut out for the big league. He looks like a deer in the headlights every time he steps to the plate and it shows in his #’s. I will be very surprised to see him on the roster out of ST. If he does make it, it will be nothing more as a utility guy to relieve the everyday 2nd baseman.

I also noticed after he was called up for September he made very few appearances in the lineup. He played in a total of 8 games the whole month – in one of those he came in to pinch it and in another he was the DH. So he got the start exactly 6 times. Doean’t sound like they have too much confidence in him either. if they had faith in the kid, he would have been in the lineup every day, till the season ended.

President & Founder of the "Bring back the Big Tilde in 2k11" Campaign

by Detroitchik on Dec 19, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

It wasnt..

The ankle. That slowed the start because he missed off season training and had to use spring training to catch up….however you all seem to be forgetting that he was placed on IR in Toledo due to a separate hip injury. This continued to nag him through the remainder of the season, including after call ups. I think we will see a completely different person after his regular training

by trogdortiger on Dec 19, 2010 10:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

We will see.

But I kind of want to see Sizemore be amazing.

Alex English was pretty coo'.

by 13194013 on Dec 19, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I think everyone here would like to see that.

I was for the Alexander trade when it happened, and I'd do 'er again!

by 77bestrookieclassever on Dec 19, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

The scariest thing to me about sizemore...

isn’t really the numbers themselves, but how unadjusted he seemed to be to the major league game. The everything seemed to take him by surprise, especially on the defensive end. That scared me a little bit about him.

by madpoopz on Dec 21, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Curious to see what Jones can do in Lakeland this season.
Carrithers was fun to watch in Lakeland last season. He was a hit machine. I realize he is an organization filler and he was old for FSL, it was still fun to watch.
I haven’t given up on Sizemore but I preached last season that he wasn’t ready for the show. The injuries are nothing new, he has missed significant time to injury at nearly every stop. Time to prove that he belongs.
Rhymes surprised the hell out of me last season. He was a fan favorite in Lakeland because of his hustle but I’ll admit I never thought he would succeed in Detroit. His bat, hustle, left handedness and glove all out weigh Sizemore at this point. I hope Will continues to be Will. Or as my mother would scream in lakeland “Run Lil Rhymes, Run!” I think she seriously believes it’s Lil’ not Will.
Either way, Either way!

by JAYRC on Dec 19, 2010 3:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Great piece.

I am actually a little encouraged by this. Second seems not to be the suck whole I thought it was.

However, for some reason (and I don’t want to put my finger on it for fear it will break) Brandon Douglas reminds me of a current Tiger 2B…

I was for the Alexander trade when it happened, and I'd do 'er again!

by 77bestrookieclassever on Dec 19, 2010 9:23 PM EST reply actions  

Nice writeup, Matt

What’s your feeling on who will be starting 2B in Detroit and Toledo this season? I think it’s an interesting topic.

My feeling is that Rhymes is the clubhouse leader right now. I don’t think they’ll keep
Sizemore in Detroit if Rhymes wins the starting job. They’ll send him to Toledo so he can get regular AB’s and hopefully build or maintain trade value. If Sizemore somehow wins the job in ST, then I think they might keep Rhymes around in Detroit as a utility. He’s probably too old and doesn’t have the tools to generate trade value. If that’s the case, my guess is Douglas starting in Toledo?

Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.

by momotigers on Dec 19, 2010 9:30 PM EST reply actions  

I’d expect 2B to be a mishmash of Santiago, Sizemore, Rhymes, Worth and Guillen next year in Detroit. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if nobody started 80 games there.

In Toledo, it could be a similar story. You’ll probably have a mix of a few guys with Henry, Douglas and Carrithers added to the mix of players mentioned above.

As for Sizemore v. Rhymes, I found this comparison of their history interesting (PA in parentheses)

Will Rhymes
AAA .282/.347/.383 (903)
AA .297/.347/.376 (747)
A+ .304/.389/.390 (578)
A .261/.332/.324 (279)
A- .328/.391/.420 (385)
.289/.354/.374 (2892)

Scott Sizemore
AAA .303/.378/.472 (672)
AA .307/.402/.535 (530)
A+ .286/.365/.409 (234)
A .265/.376/.390 (530)
A- .327/.394/.435 (234)
.296/.382/.446 (2038)

It’s probably a little early to be writing off Sizemore as doomed to be a 4-A player.

by mattintoledo on Dec 19, 2010 10:41 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Great numbers

Surprisingly, both players are quite consistent at every level of the minors. They have done what they do at every level. Obviously, Sizemore has more pop in his bat and gets on base more often. Rhymes seems to have the better glove. I certainly prefer Rhymes because of his limited performance last season vs. Sizemore’s limited performance last season. I also feel that 1) Rhymes does things that I like from a #2 hitter, which we need and 2) Sizemore would probably fetch more in a trade.

For these reasons, I’m pulling for Rhymes. If Sizmore wins the job and holds it, I’ll be thrilled because it will mean he has performed well.

Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.

by momotigers on Dec 20, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

If it were up to me...

Will Rhymes would be our starting second baseman. He showed he has the ability to hit the ball, at least do his job and execute, would make a solid #2 in the batting order.

Fielding he was great, he never gave up and hustled his butt off, played the game the right way.

by HJYMorley on Dec 19, 2010 10:58 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed

I was really impressed by Rhymes last year as well, especially his defense. He made some Polanco level plays late in the season. The question is whether he can maintain his success at the plate for an entire season.

At this point I would actually consider Sizemore fair trade bait along with some of our surplus outfielders (Thomas, Wells, Boesch) for a half-way decent starting pitcher.

by Sutelc on Dec 20, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions  

He did make some nice plays, but....

Rhymes was still a negative WAR fielder last year. Unfortunately there aren’t really detailed minor league defensive stats readily available, but from what I can tell Rhymes has been a below average defender in the minor leagues more years than not.

In fact, if you look at the total zone fielding runs above average on baseballreference.com, Sizemore has been much better than Rhymes over his minor league career. I think Sizemore has been unfairly pigeon-holed as a guy who is a terrible defender while Rhymes is given too much credit for being a Leyland “dirtballer”.

I personally hope they give Sizemore the inside track. He certainly has the higher offensive ceiling. If Rhymes is clearly better in spring training and/or over the first 2-3 months of the season, then fine. I just want to give Sizemore a chance to reach his potential.

by BayesLaw on Dec 20, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

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