The Ten Starting Pitchers the Tigers Should Target This Offseason
by Dberg on Dec 4, 2010 1:00 AM EST
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PrintThe starting pitching free agent cupboard is getting pretty bare. Arroyo, De La Rosa, Garland, Kuroda, Lilly, Vazquez, and Westbrook have all been snatched up. While the top free agent still remains (Cliff Lee, of course), it seems highly unlikely that the Tigers will be able to sign him. Given this assumption, who are the top starting pitchers the Tigers should target (via either free agency or trade)? Here's my answer.
1. Zack Greinke (Royals): Allegedly, the Royals have stated that they won't trade Greinke to an AL Central competitor. Still, never hurts to try, right? Given the Royals' insane SP depth on their farm, they will probably look to cash in on Greinke while clearing the payroll of the $27 million he would be making in 2011-12.
2. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros): Never the wealthiest team (nor the most competitive) it wouldn't be a surprise to see Houston trade Wandy, as 2011 is his final year of arbitration after making $5 million in 2010. Houston GM Ed Wade is certainly not the brightest bulb in the pack, so grabbing Wandy for a reasonable price might be doable.
3. Carl Pavano (Free Agent): He was great in 2010, and it would be nice to stick it to the Twins by signing him, but I doubt the Tigers get him. He'll be expensive, and he'll have a lot of suitors to choose from.
4. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins): Marlins owner Jeff Loria is known to be quite the scrooge, so I expect he'll try to trim some payroll. As Nolasco is due a raise on his $3.8 million in 2010, he might be one that Loria will let go. Dombrowski seems to have a good relationship with the Florida front office, so this seems like one of the more likely scenarios.
5. James Shields (Rays): While his 2010 ERA was terrible, Shields posted the best strikeout rate of his career, along with a solid walk rate. I'd love to see the Tigers grab him while his stock is as low as it's been. The Rays have already said that they're looking to trim payroll, and Shields looks like the most likely Ray to get traded.
6. Matt Garza (Rays): Like Shields, Garza could find himself on the trade block due to payroll constrictions in Tampa. Unlike Shields, Garza put up solid traditional numbers in 2010 (15 W, 3.91 ERA).
7. Brandon Webb (Free Agent): He hasn't pitched a game in a while, and reports on his velocity are not good, but he is a former Cy Young winner, and it would be nice to see the Tigers take a flyer on him (for the right price, of course).
8. Jeff Francis (Free Agent): Francis hasn't been fully healthy or effective since 2007, but he did show some signs of life this year. He could be a bargain if given a low-risk, incentive-laden deal.
9. Justin Duchscherer (Free Agent): He hasn't been healthy since 2008, but he was pretty good back then. Like Francis, he could be a bargain if given very little guaranteed money.
10. Fausto Carmona (Indians): Carmona hasn't been very good since 2007, but he was at least decent in 2010. The Indians are clearly in a transitional stage, and Carmona is set to make $6.1 million in 2011.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Agree with most of that list.
But Grienke is not happening and Carmona, well, hope it doesn’t happen. I would add Brad Penny and Rich Harden to that list instead, but that’s just me.
I was for the Alexander trade when it happened, and I'd do 'er again!
by 77bestrookieclassever on Dec 4, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions
I'd be cool with Penny and Harden,
as long as they don’t give either of them too much money or years.
Sure, landing Greinke would be a long shot, but I can dream, right? :)
The word on Greinke is that the Royals want two SP's with "Greinke's upside"
and that they won’t trade him within the division. But if they did, for the Tigers that means probably trading both Porcello and Turner, for starters. Too much for my taste.
I’d also add Jeremy Guthrie to that list, if the O’s were to make him available.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Maybe Oliver / Turner , Porcello/Wilk, or Porcello/Oliver would work
Not sure if this makes it taste any better…
You might be able to add Wilk to the list as well. I would rank those young pitchers in this order…1 = Porcello (he’s got experience and has shown glimpses of Greinke-ism at the MLB level) 2 = Turner, 3 = Oliver, 4 = Wilk.
I think that if KC wants two of them, our duo would need to add up to 5 or less (Using the above numbers….Porcello with any or Turner with Oliver).
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Duane Below may be up before Wilk
(Sorry Stephen).
One rumor on Greinke was Kyle Drabek and Cory Snider from the Jays.
Drabek is major league ready, will have some growing pains- like an Oliver with a higher ceiling, and Cory Snider is an OF’er with 30 HR potential.
If KC was going to deal within the division, which they’re not unless they’re blown away, maybe an Oliver + Boesch would start a discussion. I don’t know what other GM’s think of Boesch, since he’s never been on anyone’s top 100 list before he made his big splash.
The Rays most definitely want major league ready relievers, but they can cut payroll and buy them once the market settles down, while still stockpiling an enormous haul of draft picks.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I like all of the above, with the exception of Francis.
I’ve mentioned all these guys in one post or another over the past few weeks. I wasn’t a fan of Francis when he was healthy, but all the others would make for a better team, IMO. I’d also add Penny, but I’d give Harden a miss.
- I believe the asking price for Greinke would be too steep.
- Glad to see someone else is on Wandy’s wagon, because he’s a lefty K machine that would really boost the Tiger rotation, and would be worth parting with a couple of good prospects to get. He has a year left before free agency, and the Strohs are said to be interested in extending him. I’ve heard no talk that he’s available, but DD should be on that one.
- Pavano wants Ted Lilly’s 3 yr/ 33 mil contract. He’s worth 11 MM per season but not three years, IMO. Two with an option is stretching it, but he’s the only really decent SP after Lee on the free agent market that’s healthy. (Yeah, Pavano!)
- Negotiations with Nolasco have hit a snag (i.e. they don’t want to pay him). He missed the last several weeks of the season with health issues, so there’s some risk there, but he’d be high on my list.
What NOT to do, is go into the season with the illusion that Phil Coke can be penciled in to the four slot and pretend we have four reliable starters. I hope that Coke does make it as a starter, but I wouldn’t be my season on it. Let him compete with Perfecto for the fifth spot. Armando may even be part of a deal to land one of the above.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Francis would cost us next to nothing
Why not take the risk?
And I’d go with Wandy too. A trade of Boesch and another decent piece should get it done.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
Because I don't think Francis solves anything, even if he's healthy
Bonderman may cost next to nothing also. Lots of pitchers might cost next to nothing.
But I’m looking for a guy that can be plugged in as a No. 3 or 4 at least if he’s healthy.
Boesch and Galarraga or Oliver might get Wandy, but I’m pretty sure that the Strohs are trying to extend him first. I’m sure there are many other deals to be had that are under the radar.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I agree with pretty much everything you say,
though I do think Francis would be a decent guy to look at, at the right price.
I definitely agree that they shouldn’t just write Coke into the rotation without considering anyone else, but I think Dombrowski’s smart enough to know not to do that.
Unless the Tigs sign Pavano, it’s pretty clear that any SP help is going to come via trade. Webb, Harden, Duchscherer, and Francis would be okay guys to take a chance on, but like Coke, I don’t think we should automatically count on any of them to step up and be effective right from the get go.
I still don't rule out that
Mr. Perfecto Galarraga could be our best pitcher. AGAIN. Like he was in 2008.
He’ll be the sabermetrician’s nightmare, and that’s why I love him.
good afternoon
The odds are very unlikely and he wasn't a sabermetrician's nightmare.
If Galarraga is the Tigers best pitcher in 2011 then the Tigers are in a heap of trouble.
Alex English was pretty coo'.
How 'bout we get Perfecto's 2008 season, Porcello's 2009, Scherzer's 2010 (2d half), and Verlander's anything but 08?
If we got that, Coke could be on coke and it wouldn’t matter.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Would trade Gallaraga for Garza
Would trade Gallaraga in a package deal to get Garza.Would proably have to be a Three team trade sending Gallaraga to another team.
I think they can get more than that for Garza,
and why wouldn’t the third team just take Garza instead? I guess if it’s Florida, they don’t want to pay him. But on the whole, it would take another piece with Armando to get Garza. Perfecto has four years of club control left, and that is attractive, so I think it’s worth pursuing, but say Galarraga plus Schlereth or Perry.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Galarraga plus Perry,
if they would do this I….don’t know what I’d do. I tried to think of something clever showing my approval but I was at a loss for words.
I was for the Alexander trade when it happened, and I'd do 'er again!
by 77bestrookieclassever on Dec 5, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Package deal
I mean’t send Gallaraga and a couple other players.
I don't see the Rays being interested in Perfecto.
They’re stacked with pitching, which is why Garza or Shields may be available.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
True
They need spot for Jeremy Hellickson, one of the most talented pitchers in MiLB. I doubt they want Galarraga instead of a top, mlb-ready prospect in their rotation.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Relievers, a first baseman, and a LF'er
Like a Boesch if they’re interested, and a couple relievers.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I'd rather have Jennings or Joyce than Boesch...
…than Boesch. Boesch is certainly a wild card that could end up being good, but I’m sure they’ll use their SP trade chips to acquire bullpen help instead of marginal OF help.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Wandy or Shields, please
Dependable starters, both of them. Wandy’s a lefty, though, and has posted better numbers (Shields gives up a lot of dingers) — but either of them would be fine in the back of the rotation.
(Sorry, Armando.)
Wandy = Reliable?
I’m not sure I’d use this adjective just yet, but the last two years have been pretty reliable (30+ games each year). Prior to the 2009 season, he was often injured.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Bedard would have been nice
He signed a one year non guaranteed contract with Seattle for just $ 1 MM.
He’s been one of the best in the league when healthy. He was unable to come back from labrum surgery last year, and wound up having a second operation to remove bone chips last August. He should be ready for the season this time, though. He’d have been my choice among the walking wounded, with Penny, Colon, and Webb also on the radar.
I believe that DD is not getting into talks with Webb to the degree that others are.
Vicente Padilla is another pitcher that can be effective when healthy. More of a No. 4- 5 guy, but he’ll probably cut a deal to stay in LA.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Greinke = most over-rated pitcher in the game
His 2009 was a huge outlier in my book.
I see a career meltdown coming. Almost Dontrelle Willisesqe.
good afternoon
I think that's probably more likely than the idea that he had an "off year" in 2010
but still. three year splits show a 3.25 ERA, over 650 IP, 606 K’s, .249 opp avg, 162 BB’s, a 39- 32 record with the Royals, and a 1.19 WHIP. That’s a solid pitcher by any definition.
I should add re: Bedard that his contract includes an additional $6.35 million in performance bonuses. No doubt the M’s would LOVE to see him earn all those bonuses. No harm in giving a deal like that to any pitcher with a history of success and injury concerns.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Sounds like the Yanks won't chase Greinke fearing a NYC meltdown.
Toronto or Texas are more likely destinations, IMO.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
don't say Texas or Alli will do backflips
by Kurt Mensching on Dec 4, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
there is too much pending for the rangers for me to do backflips yet
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
Brewers get Shaun Marcum
Now this is a pitcher that I’d have second only to Greinke on that list. Sheeeeeeet!
The Brewers have acquired Blue Jays pitcher Shaun Marcum, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Milwaukee will send pitching prospects to Toronto for the right-hander, Haudricourt hears.
Marcum, who turns 29 next Tuesday, turned in a 3.39 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 25 starts in 2008 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. After missing the 2009 major league season, he came back strong in 2010, posting a 3.64 ERA with 7.6 K/0 and 2.0 BB/9.
The hurler is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. Last year, the hurler avoided arbitration with the Blue Jays when he agreed to a one-year, $850K deal
.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Okay, they got Lawrie in the trade
A source told FOXSports.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that top prospect Brett Lawrie is in the Shaum Marcum deal with the Blue Jays.
That’s a high price to pay, as Lawrie has All-Star potential at second base. Perhaps it’s a sign that the Brewers are optimistic about locking up Rickie Weeks beyond 2011.
Source: Jon Paul Morosi on Twitter
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
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