SI: 10 for '10: Young aces among those at risk of Verducci Effect

SI's Tom Verducci lists Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer as 2 of his 10 "at-risk pitchers" due to their heavy rookie workloads. As if there wasn't enough to worry about going into the 2010 season, let's add the "Year After Effect" to the ever-growing list.

over 2 years ago BigAl 11 comments 0 recs |

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I think Innings Pitched is an incredibly archaic measure.

Isn’t the number of PITCHES thrown much more significant than the number of innings? The body has no way to know what an inning is, just what a pitch is. Porcello threw the 8th fewest number of pitches in MLB among qualified starters. Justin Verlander threw the most. The difference in number of pitches thrown? 1211 pitches! That’s a TON of pitches. Porcello simply didn’t have that intensive a load. Among pitchers with 170+ innings, he was 4th fewest pitches in baseball, only 50 more then the lowest total. We worked him hard, absolutely. But we were still as careful as we possibly could be considering we were a team in contention and he was a major part of that. Could the sophomore slump happen? Of course. But I really don’t think it will be because he was overworked.

Now JUSTIN on the other hand…

by Trysdor on Feb 16, 2010 8:39 PM EST reply actions

Verlander is different

He’s past the injury nexus, and while he was worked hard, his pitches per inning was low, in a historical context. (CK did a bit on his health over at Baseball Prospectus when writing about the extension).

Porcello’s still a risk- even if he threw less pitches, he still threw a lot more than he did in 2008.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Feb 16, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

The Verlander comparision was merely to demonstrate what a truly extreme workload is.

The primary point was that by the standards of any starting pitcher, Porcello had a light workload.

by Trysdor on Feb 16, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

But he didn’t have a light workload considering the entire year before he threw 60-70 pitches per outing and was on a strict 75 pitch maximum.

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by Mike Rogers on Feb 16, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

+1

This is why the Verducci effect seems to occur. You can control pitch counts as much as you want, but you’ll get nowhere near the control you would in the minors.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by David Tokarz on Feb 16, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions

There's a reason I said he could very well still have a slump

I recognize that the workload was clearly higher then the previous year. My point was that we did as much as we possibly could have to give him a light year while still having him as a full-time member of our starting rotation. Almost no full-time starter in the majors had a lighter load. We were going to increase his load either way. If he’s going to have a slump, I think it was inevitable, not because he was mismanaged. I guess that was my point all along.

by Trysdor on Feb 17, 2010 12:17 AM EST up reply actions

We agree.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Feb 17, 2010 2:12 AM EST up reply actions

I think he is wrong...

There has been some newer research stating that the so called “verducci effect” doesnt exist…

When he did the original study, he used a very small sample size from one small era in the game…

before his study era, and since, his theroy has proven to be nothing more than a few coincidental injuries..

does a pitchers work load effect his health? yes… but does a certain IP increase increase injury risk? NO!

The one main factor that can be attributed to pitching injuries is the amount of pitches thrown in a a single game and the games after… so for example, Verlander throws 140 pitches one night and then 120 5 days later… that is a risk…
It is when a pitchers arm is already fatigued that they get injured…

by jpolut on Feb 17, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions

Yes.....

….Number of pitches is the key not innings pitched…..Im not sure about Max but Porcello did not throw many at all….Im sure Porcello will throw a few more this year but not that many more actually.

by BennieBladesFan on Feb 16, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

About that "Verducci Effect"...

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/02/verducci_effect.php#comments

“The Verducci Effect, like most everything else I tested, is not significant in predicting future injuries. Injuries are hard enough to predict as is, and there’s certainly no straightforward rule of thumb.”

by Scottwood on Feb 18, 2010 2:43 PM EST reply actions