Nine themes to watch during Tigers' spring training
Pitchers and catchers officially report to Tigertown in Lakeland later today, and the first workout is scheduled for tomorrow.
In some ways, this will be the most interesting spring training session for the Tigers in several years. Sure, there have been some plots to follow during the four: Would Justin Verlander make the team in 2006? How about Andrew Miller in 2007? And Rick Porcello in 2009? Hmm, I'm sensing a theme there.
This year, Detroit goes into Tigertown with 12 of 13 position players set, or close to set; with four of five rotation members already known; and with six of seven bullpen guys sitting on solid ground. So at most, we're probably talking about three real roster decisions that need to be made by Tigers brass.
In theory, anyway.
But with so many new faces on the Tigers this year -- from big name additions like closer Jose Valverde, to rookie promotions like second baseman Scott Sizemore -- it should be fun to get to know the new personalities and see if they fit into the puzzle as well as it is hoped they will.
Those story lines and more will be some I'll be following. The list is after the jump!
1. Meeting Austin Jackson
It's not that you can look at spring training stats and decide that they mean anything -- because they don't. But this will be the first exposure to the Tigers' center fielder of the future for the fans. There are maybe a couple of videos on the Internet, and some stories heralding him as the Yankees' future. But what do we really know about him?
And so much might be riding on whether the Tigers got this trade right. They gave up their extremely popular 30 home run, 3.4 wins above replacement left-handed hitting center fielder speculating Jackson would do the same job cheaper. If he creates yet another hole in the lineup, the Tigers could be in trouble. If he becomes the player many scouts think he could be, the Tigers will be sitting pretty for years.
Of course, there is some debate whether he'll make the team out of spring training. If he looks overwhelmed in a camp, a platoon situation could be set up with Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn, or Detroit may even seek to make a trade.
2. Finding a fifth starter
The Tigers should have an excellent top three to their rotation, but after that the dropoff is ... well, we're not even sure at this point, because we have no idea what to expect from so many players.
So I know some people want to include "fourth" starter in that too, but I think Jeremy Bonderman has that pretty solidly covered unless he stumbles in a big way. The fifth starter could be any of the following: Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, Phil Coke, Player To Be Named Later.
For those wondering if maybe Casey Crosby will be joining the likes of Verlander, Miller and Porcello ... no. You have to wait another year for that story line to emerge.
3. Sizing up Scott Sizemore
Another rookie being thrust into a starting spot, Sizemore is a bit better known by fans. For instance, we know he should be able to hit the ball pretty solidly. Maybe not at the start of the year, but eventually. But we also know he has no major league at bats and not every prospect makes the next step. We know he is not Placido Polanco with the glove, but how he fields is up to some debate. Some act as if he has a cement glove, but other reports put him at average to just-below-average.
And let's not forget, he's returning from a broken bone in his ankle/leg during the Arizona Fall League in November.
4. Sorting out the left-handed relievers
Fellow blogger John Parent calls them "a glut." Let's list them: Bobby Seay, Fu-Te Ni, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Brad Thomas (remember him?). If the Tigers didn't believe Andrew Oliver can be a starter still, he'd have to be included in that list, too. Detroit could almost put together an all-lefty bullpen from this group and do pretty well. Just add Valverde and ROOGY Ryan Perry. Of course, I jest. But Jim Leyland can safely grab three of them and feel pretty confident about his selection. But which three will it be?
You expect Seay and Coke to make the pen for sure, barring a trade. Fu-Te Ni pitched pretty well last season, though his peripherals were nothing to be excited about. Schlereth has a nice ceiling but might benefit from some time in the minors to work on his command. Thomas was signed during the winter meetings -- rumors said at a cost of $1 million -- out of the Korean league.
5. Joel Zumaya's "last string"
Zumaya told MLB.com's Jason Beck he's probably on his "last string." At the start of the offseason, some wondered if Zumaya might be the favorite to close this year. The Tigers chose to sign closer Jose Valverde instead. Zumaya feels like he's healthy now and has fixed mechanical issues and now is the time to shine. So, we'll see if he makes the next step forward and helps Detroit shut down the late innings. If he's unable to make that move, then Perry probably ends up with the title of closer-in-waiting. (Or maybe Zumaya is just being dramatic, as he has been known to be.)
6. Sorting out the lineup
Who's leading off? Maybe Jackson. He gets the first shot. Who's second? Who knows!? Not Leyland, not right now anyway. One problem? The Tigers' lineup, as constructed off the most-likely roster, has eight right-handed batters and one switch hitter (Carlos Guillen, when healthy). Sure, there's a couple of left-handed batters who can and will come off the bench. But they're not exactly world-beaters with the bat. So Leyland and his boss have some work to do before April.
7. The 25th Man
Who's No. 25 on this roster? Infield/outfielder Donnie Kelly? He has no options remaining and can play third base. He'll probably see a lot of action at third during the next month, because Brandon Inge is not expected to see time in games until the final two to three weeks of the Grapefruit League. That would make more sense than Brent Dlugach, who just can't buy a break with the organization. If the Tigers are still sweating their left-handed batter issues, outfielder Clete Thomas could find himself the 4th/5th outfielder (depending on what you consider Guillen.)
Maybe we could have a surprise here. Maybe the left-handed hitting Brennan Boesch proves himself worthy of playing DH with some time in the outfield to boot, solving multiple problems.
8. Finding a left fielder?
Last October, Guillen complained he was more than a designated hitter; he wanted to play in the field. Leyland agreed and named him the left fielder for 2010. Which leaves Raburn as ... the designated hitter? Raburn is not a Gold Glove outfielder, but something seems a bit backwards about that, doesn't it?
9. Intangibles
There's a lot of little things. Inge's knees, for instance. He had surgery on both of them this offseason. How will that affect him in the field and at the plate?
What about Miguel Cabrera's battle against alcohol? It sounds like he made all the right decisions during the offseason, but he might be entering a new phase as he is back with his team, playing baseball.
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Comments
I don’t care how much he wants to play in the field Guillen is a liability in left. If he is so immature as to not see that and accept the DH then I don’t know what to say. Raburn deserves the LF starter spot, he’s solid both offensively and defensively, and he’s got a hell of an arm. His routes and decision making in the outfield will improve as he makes more starts there.
What's a ROOGY?
Right handed version of a loogy?
Re: Sizemore: Average to below average defense is going to be a huge step down after Placido. He needs to it sooner rather than later if he’s going to win over the fans any time soon.
About Bonderman, I don’t think he’s going to stumble that badly, but I also don’t know if I trust his health. That fight for the 5th starter spot might be more of a fight for the 4-and-a-half-th spot.
Off topic-ish, I’ve always wondered why manager don’t sometimes switch things up a bit, in terms of if they had a solid 4th pitcher, make them a day 5 starter, and hide the shaky spot on day 4. Might keep a little pressure off the ace, feeling like he’s always coming in after a loss, needing to right the ship.
And on the topic of Inge’s knees…taking the second half of the year as his baseline, I’m thinking the surgery can only help his hitting. The fielding will probably suffer, but if he can come back with some of the pop he showed in the first half of 2009, we’ll forgive that very easily.
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Re: 5th starter
There’s a reason the ace is called “the ace.” It’s his job to come in after the 5th/worst starter pitches and right the ship. He’s supposed to be the losing-streak-buster that he gets paid for. Verlander definitely needs to be that guy with his new paycheck.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 19, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
A ROOGY is
a. A Japanese LOOGY
b. right handed one out only guy
c. Rodney’s One and Only Good Year
d. Rookie Of Our Great Year
A was funny..
very funny…
But it went downhill quickly…
I would like to see..
Wilkin Ramirez get a shot at the 25th spot… esecially if we dont sign that caveman a-hole..
He seams like the player with the most upside…
I always thought that after the trades of Granderson and Jackson that this year should be used to evaluate some of our talent…
Let Wilkin, Austin and Sizemore have 400+ Ab’s and see what they could do..
Then next year when we have $$$ to spend we would know what holes to spend it on and what holes were covered…
I know it sux to not be in contention, but id rather have one down year and be right back in it, then become the Chisox…
The Astros keep plugging away with an aging lineup, picking up high priced aging free agents, and in are just a middle of the road team.. I dont want that…
I respect the Marlins cyclic nature more than anything… build, build, build, win, rebuild…
We have more money than them so it should be easier…
BUT since fans wont buy into rebuilding this year because the fact that the Tigers were VERY lucky and almost made the playoffs last season, we have to keep grabbing a piece here or there instead of playing the kids…
I could be happy losing but watching some young players break in this year… But the sad fact is the casual fans just cannot understand that… They have no idea how baseball works… an example would be the facebook page of the Tigers after the Granderson trade… it still is filled with people whinning about that… they say ‘why did we trade Grandy if we are going to get Damon.’ They cant seam to understand that we got 4 cost controled palyers in return…
ANYWAY, I think we shoudl play the kids with the most upside… Raburn and Clete dont have much upside… sure they may net us one win this year over what Wilkin would do, but in the long run we need impact major league players to win sustainably…
Ramirez can't play CF
So we’d have one CF on the roster (two including Raburn). Plus you want a slew of at bats for young players, which means if you put him in a rotation between DH, LF and RF with Carlos and Maggs, you can’t sign Damon and you steal AB’s from Raburn.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
It's not his natural position
but he can play there. He’d fare better than Ramirez.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 19, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Exactally...
I don’t want Damon, and I also don’t want to see much of Raburn… I do not get this man-crush people on this site have with Raburn… The guy is 30 right??? he is going to be downhill after this year… wells, ramirez or strieby could bring just as much upside as raburn but are much younger, under team control for longer, and have nuch higher upsides…
And who cares if Maggs or Guillen dont get alot of AB’s… even if Maggs hits .300 with 15 homers do you really want to pay him $15 millon next year that could be used on a guy like Werth??? And the less Guillen plays the better IMO…
and nowhere did I say to play Ramirez in CF… I know that he isnt a great fielder… He probably has the arm for right but his routes are bad and should restrict him to left… But at 23 his routes could change enough to play RF…
And you act like the Tigers couldn’t just bring up Thomas from AAA if something happened to Jackson??? or they couldn’t bring someone up to spell him for a game once a month…
This isn't the NFL
30 isn’t a big-time fall off point for players. 30 is nothing to get in a tizzy about.
Quibbles
IMO, pitching is going to be a far bigger question than our lineup. Unless they’re horrible – which has never been cause to remove certain favorites from Leyland’s lineup – Jax & Sizemore are going to play and they’ll probably be fine, so long as the Tiger beats aren’t asking them every day whether they “feel the pressure.”
But I’d say our rotation has some HUGE question marks, well beyond #5.
1. While unlikely, does JV suffer from hangover following his big contract?
2. Does Porcello take a step backwards after 50+ additional IP last season. Verducci thinks so.
3. Is Mad Max going to be dependable? He’s coming from the NLW, where his team gave up on him due to control problems & quirkey mechanics. How is it that we’re so confident?
4. Bonderman is anything but a “sure thing.” He’s NEVER stayed healthy and despite the annual spring training attempt, he’s never developed a third pitch. At best, he’s a .500 pitcher and we can likely project 8-12 wins from him.
5. Is the least of my worries. With so much competition, someone will step forward, as they seem to do nearly every year.
If you ask me, I’d say this is our most important issue. As the rotation goes, so goes this team’s fortunes.
Aside from that, I think Miggy’s in for a monster season.
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I guess I don't understand your comments about Bonderman...
up til having a to get a rib removed he was a very reliable pitcher to pitch a fairly large amount of innings. His lowest IP for his career before the surgery was 162 and that was his rookie season in ’03.
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Bondo
His “potential” has been consistently overrated by many Tiger fans. He’s a battler and a good guy (although by some reports, a bit daft).
That said, he’s missed starts for injury (or caution) every season except 2006. His career record is well under .500, despite playing on some good teams and he’s never won more than 14. He’s never developed a reliable third pitch (and therefore suffers bad outings when his slider isn’t biting), his career ERA is nearly five (ERA+ is 93, slightly below league average), and WHIP around 1.4.
He is not and never will be an “ace,” as Verlander and Porcello are or have the potential to be. He’s average at best, and IMO is not worth hanging our hopes upon as we seem to do every spring. All this talk about him being “strong,” “healthy” and “ready” is just that: talk.
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But as a 4th starter?
If we get 12 wins from Bonderman as a 4th starter, we’ll be celebrating that fact at the end of the year.
But I say that as someone not hanging much hope on his hook.
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Most teams
would love 12 wins from their 4th starter
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 19, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
but his FIP has always been better than his ERA...
and despite having to be cautious with him he still averages about 185 innings pitched (yes I am leaving out the last few seasons).
It’s easy to forget that his best seasons came with very good teams and even with those very bad teams that he pitched for his numbers still were not terrible.
But like you said JV is our ace. We are not looking for Bonderman to develop into an ace. While he may in fact only be average, he’s probably the best average pitcher on this team. And really I don’t think anybody is pinning any hopes on the 4th spot of the rotation at this point because if this rotation ends up having to put hopes on that rotation spot, we have much bigger problems to deal with.
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We shall see...
Sure 12 wins would be great…but that’s “best” case in my view. I’m not saying the guy is worthless, but we are – and this post above – depends on him being reliable….and I’m not sure that will be the case. We truly don’t know if he is or will be healthy and, even if he is, whether his lack of a third pitch will prevent him from ever being more than a slightly below average guy. And there’s a lot more question marks in our rotation than it may appear at first glance.
Personally, I’ve long contended Bonderman’s stuff would be better suited for the bullpen – he has a classic “closer” arsenal -, but obviously no one of any importance agrees with that view.
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I've contended the same with Bondo being closer material...
it’s all there, including the mental makeup.
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*sigh
Guys, we can’t have a 25 man bullpen. We need other positions too.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I've tried
But he doesn’t seem to want to listen to the crazy guy holding the sign outside his office/home/kids daycare.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
I was contending this long before Valverde signed.
I know it’s a bit late at this point but it’s still plausible.
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I agree also...
I have always though Bondo should be put into a closers role… great slider and ok 4 seamer…
It is his 3rd pitch that always got him in trouble… like stated above, when his slider wasnt working he had nothign else to go to…
But even worse, when he did try a 3rd pitch, people clobbered it…
I remembr in 2006 and 2007, almost every home run Bondo gave up seam to come when he threw a 2 seam fastball… it usually was right down the middle with no movement, and at a much slower velocity than his 4 seamer…
And then he tried the changeup which was just horrible for him..
I dont blame him though… He should have been in AA in 2003 and AAA in 2004 working on a 3rd pitch… not in the big leagues… this led to him trying out pitches in years like 2007 during the season and paying the price for it…
I have also read and researched the fact that throwing a slider is the hardest pitch on a pitchers arm… it leads to the most injuies.. Guys who’s main pitch after the fastball is a slider tend to get injured much more often… SO MAYBE since Bondo had to throw his slider SO MANY times in games because he had nothing else, that could be the reason for all the injuries…
Bonderman's injuries
SO MAYBE since Bondo had to throw his slider SO MANY times in games because he had nothing else, that could be the reason for all the injuries…
Bonderman’s physical problems over the last two years had nothing whatever to do with throwing a slider—I haven’t seen any evidence that they are baseball-related at all, except in a sense that last year he hadn’t recovered his full strength and therefore couldn’t play at a major league level. But, I don’t think he got a blood clot in his chest from pitching.
I will try
and find the article about the corralation between pitchers who throw sliders and injuries…
It might have been in the B.P. book “Why everythign you know about the game is wrong” but I am not sure… It was 2 season ago when i read about it and looked up some other info on it…
It's totally irrelevent if pitchers who throw sliders are more likely to get injured
Those are baseball related injuries. I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Bonderman had problems with baseball related injures.
Nick Adenhart threw sliders . . .
. . . and there is, as you say, a strong correlation between throwing sliders and getting hurt—so no wonder he got killed a a car crash.
Huh?
How is a blood clot in the arm of a 25 year old’s pitching arm NOT BASEBALL RELATED????
How many men in thier 20’s do either of you know that have major blood clots in thier arms that require surgery???
If you dont think repeatedly and violently throwing a baseball with ones arm and then said arm developeing a blood cloot that requires surgury are realated I don’t think I can reason with you…
And that pitchers who use sliders alot are more likely to get injured than other pitcher is a true…
A slider is the most violent deliever of any pitch and puts the most strain on a pitchers arm… ask any pitcher… and the corallation to injury has been documented..
And to use Adenhart as an example is just imature and disrespectful…
No disrespect to you personally was intended
Just showing a correlation in the general population tells us nothing unless you also have a plausible causal mechanism for the particular case. Using the Adenhart example makes that point more understandably than simply trying to explain it in the abstract.
I looked into Bonderman’s physica problems a bit more deeply. Bonderman, it turns out, had thoracic outlet compression syndrome, which means that the opening between his chest cavity and his shoulder through which blood vessels and nerves pass was too narrow. He was born that way, and they treated it by removing his first rib. One of the more alarming symptoms that can result from the syndrome is a blood clot like Bonderman suffered. Baseball entered into it only in the sense that the syndrome was less likely to become symptomatic if Bonderman didn’t have a job that involved raising his arms above his shoulders a lot. There is no causal mechanism by which throwing a slider, as opposed to some other pitch, could have had anything to do with Bonderman’s trouble
Here you go...
This isnt where I first read about it, but maybe since its on SB nation you might read it…
http://www.halosheaven.com/2009/3/31/816642/using-pitch-fx-when-looking-at
Here is more..
Since that link I posted above is just one of dozens of article you can google about the correllation between pitchers who throw sliders and injury, I will use a different route here…
According to fangraphs, in 2006 Bonderman threw the 4th highest percentage of sliders in baseball at 33.6 %. Number 1, , 2 and 3, were Lieber, Randy Johnson, and Ramon Ortiz..
In 2007 he threw the 2nd highest percentage of sliders at 35.2% trailing only Ian Snell..
So I have shown you that sliders do infact attribute to injury, and that Bonderman threw more sliders than almost everyone in baseball…
So I think the connection is a little more than you will admit…
Nowhere did I ever say I dont think Bondo can bounce back.. I did state that a bullpen role would be ideal for him, but we would get much more value out of him as a SP and also our bullpen is full…
Actually
Bondo’s fastball has pretty good movement.
Or had pretty good movement- we don’t know since he’s been hurt for so long.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
His 4 seamer does...
but his 2 seamer looked like crap to me.. I could be wrong… I think it was in 2006 or 07 that he was using it alot… I am not sure if pitch f/x has data for those years.. doesnt anyone know???
Two seamer has good tailing action
When used right. That’s what the Bilfer link says.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe
The times I noticed it are the times it was used wrong… It makes since because when a pitcher gives up a homer the type of pitch is ususually stated by the tv or radio guys… and it is replayed in slow mo for fans like me…
the reason I remember it so good is because my brother is an even bigger bondo fan than me, and we would constantly be on the lookout for 2-seamers because we knew that it wasnt going to end well…
Bondo had GREAT tailing action on his heater. It was surreal. Here’s a couple articles I wrote this summer about him using PITCHf/x.
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Like I stated
I know his 4 seamer had great action… But just from the naked eye it looked like he could only throw his 2 seamer straight down the middle..
I tried looking on Fangraphs for info, but they do not seperate 2 and 4 seam FBs…
Maybe I worded it wrong… it wasnt so much his 2 seamer not tailing, but the fact that he threw it over the hart of the plate almost everytime he threw it.. I can remember a few games where the great Rod Allen would point out that he just threw a 2 seamer, and that was as the ball sailed over the LF wall..
BTW, I LOVE Bonderman.. I own an Authentic Bondo Jersey, and I think he does have a good chance of returing to his 2006-2007 form.. a very good chance… But I think he will never rise above the 3-4 WAR mark without a 3rd pitch… I know he surpassed in 2006, but I think that might be the outlier… I would think 3-4 War going forward if healthy…
Now if he got a 2nd pitch, watchout!
I meant
3rd pitch at the end there…
anyways, I am wrong about the “action” on the 2 seamer…Bilfers article did break it down between 2 and 4 seamers…
But I still think he must have thrown it over the heart of the plate way too often.. I know the naked eye and memory are the worst 2 tools for evaluating the game of baseball But I just remember soooo many of his HR’s being off of his 2 seamer…
like I said, maybe it was just that pitches location… I saw from Mike’s and Bilfers articles that he stuggled with control of his 4 seamer, so maybe he went to his 2 seamer in hitters counts so that he could make sure he got it over the plate thus avioding a walk… and at that point the hitter was sitting on a FB…
I wish Fangraphs had pitch values broke down between 2 and 4 seam… that would have made this really easy….
Oh, I was just trying to give a couple more looks at Bondo (honestly hadn’t even read through the entire convo yet).
I will say that most broadcasters have problems identifying pitches. I believe that Bondo threw substantially more 2-seamers than 4-seamers but I’m not positive on that.
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If they couldn't deal with Scherzer's "control problems"
Then I don’t know why they traded for Edwin Jackson.
Scherzer’s thing is injury concerns because of his mechanics, that’s about it. He is moving from the NL West to the AL Central, but I don’t think it’ll be that hard of a transition for him. Instead of facing the Padres and Giants limp offenses, he’ll get to beat up on the lowly Royals and White Sox offenses (assuming they don’t get Damon, I suppose). He pitched in an insane hitters park in Arizona, and moving to Comerica should asssist his transition as well. There is a lot of reason for optimism with him (aside from the injury concerns, of course).
As far as Bonderman goes, he got by all those years well enough with just two pitches. I’m sure all the talk of him looking “back to form” are overblown, but if he is then he’ll probably be the best 4th starter in baseball (that’s a relative term of course, but look at the rest of the rotations in baseball). Even if he’s not truly back to form, he’ll still probaby be miles better than any of the Willis/Bonine/Robertson/Galarraga quartet of horror.
by ozymandius1024 on Feb 18, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
>
By “got by,” you mean the 59-67/4.78/1.395 career? “Best 4th starter”?? You must be joking. Seriously, gang…his B-R “most similar” pitchers are guys named Rodrigo Lopez, Tony Armas & Josh Fogg. Its not exactly a group of guys “best” at anything. (Also named is a member of your “quartet of horror,” Nate Robertson, among his most similar.)
The point of my post is that the rotation has more question marks than most people are allowing, including a motivated JV, young Porcello, and an unknown Scherzer. And, in my view, many are putting way too much faith in Bonderman, a guy who hasn’t been healthy in two years.
Even at his “best,” when fans like to point to his 2006 playoff performance against an NYY team in a funk (when JV & Rogers had already won the tougher matchups), people forget he blew a 6-0 lead and the division to the Royals the previous week. His “best” is still inconsistent…and much of that is because he’s in trouble if his slider isn’t working.
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This is a blatantly unfair comparison
You’re forgetting that he was 6-19 in 162 innings in 2003- with an ERA of 5.56. We jumped him from A-Ball to the Bigs- his first few years were rough, but he showed consistent improvement through 2004-2005 unitl he broke out in 2006-2007 until he got injured.
Stop using career numbers- it’s ridiculous and in no way helps your argument. The trend of his career was swinging up until he got hurt. If you want to make “Bondo is mediocre” arguments, perhaps you should focus on the fact he’s been hurt for the past two years. That might make sense.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Also
Another reason not to use career numbers: we just handed out a 5 year extension to a 4 ERA pitcher. Clearly we overpaid.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly....
….You hear everyone saying how avereage Bondo is because of his career number and tespecially the last 3 yrs when hes been hurt….And like you siad we just gave 80 mil to a guy witha era career era over 4.00…..Thats a great post man…….Neither comparison is fair but for some reason JV stats get overlooked and Bondos dont form being hurt.
by BennieBladesFan on Feb 18, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Technically it's 3.92
But that’s close enough to 4 to make the point.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 18, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Make some sense yourself
Clearly, some of you are a prime example of emotional attachment to the guy. I’m not saying he “sucks,” only that he’s given unwarranted credit and expectations by certain Tiger fans.
“Stop using career numbers?” That’s a man’s body of work! Its what he’s judged by, brother. Its the big leagues. And regardless of injuries, his performance is what it is. Injuries are a part of it. If a guy is on the bump, he’s expected to perform like a major leaguer.
But ok, whatever.
His best year is still 14-8/4.08 – the ONLY full season when he was “above MLB average.” Is that “non-ridiculous” enough for you? By comparison (only because you brought it up), Verlander has one season worse than Bonderman’s best, in terms of ERA…and he’s 65-43 over the same stretch, playing for the same team against the same competition. Verlander’s was also very young, but his first year was 17-9/3.63, as opposed to Bonderman’s first year – and JV had to pitch under pressure. Bonderman’s only “pressure” was avoiding 20 losses. What’s your point about JB’s crappy first year again?? Its not supposed to count?
Your “until he got injured” rebuttal is the same “unfair comparison” that excuse-makers were using for the $41m we wasted on Sheffield: if the guy can’t perform, for whatever reason, then you’re foolish to count on him.
My point from the beginning, in responding to Kurt’s initial view that Bonderman was NOT a question mark. In my mind, he remains a huge question mark.
That, and – at his very best – he’s only a slightly above average MLB pitcher, whereas some seem to imply that he’s truly a stud or dominant. Normally, he’s not even that good.
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while I will not argue with you the wins and losses...
ERA represents more what the team did than what the actual pitcher accomplished.
And really, why are you comparing Bondo to JV? I don’t think anybody on this site would contend that Bondo is better than JV. In fact I think most people would contend that JV is leaps and bounds better than Bondo. We all understand that Bondo is average to above average as a starter. Maybe you should compare him to another pitcher like him instead of an ace.
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To answer your concerns in short
Everybody on this site loves sabermetrics, and sabermetrics tell us the pitching should be fine. Whether it actually works out that way, who knows.
PLAY BALL!!!!
Obviously its going to be an interesting spring training. Some folks talk on here like we are the only team who has question marks and possibilities. Almost all teams have these things going on. The majority of it relates on health. Usually the healthiest team has a better shot at making the playoffs. That said, I dont buy in to the fact that we should just call this a “Rebulding year” and play the kids. Most teams try to get a mix of thier farm system, trandes and free agency. Except for the Stankees. I have faith in the tigers farm system and the scouts and management. How do you think we got here? I’ve got to think Jackson & Sizemore are going to hit better than Laird & Everett hit last year. Also lets not forget about our young Alex Avila. It was exciting watching him play last year. He already has his feet wet some and did fine. Our starting rotation is decent and could be good depending on the 4 & 5 starters. As of right now, I think Robertson & Bondo will beat out the others. Where does that leave Garalag? Im not sure. Probably AAA so he can keep pitching and stay sharp in case a starter falters. Im excited for our team and cant wait to get rolling. Yes I feel we have a shot at the title. But, everyone has to stay healthy and all do thier part. Thats why there are 25 of them to get the job done. For all those who wine & complain about what we do have and dont have. As I’ve said before. How would like to be a Pirate, Indian, Royals, or Marlins fan. PLAY BALL!!!!
It isnt that I don't think we have a chance...
But I would rather try and compete with young players this season so next year, when we have around $40-$50 million to play with we know where we need to spend it…
I would rather see Avila get a full LH/RH platoon role to see if he is the answer…
I would like to see which young OF’s out of Strieby, Wells, Jackson, Ramirez, Boesch, or Thomas actually could be an above average major league regular… playing in the bigs is the way to do that… I DO NOT want to see Damon, Guillen, Maggs, and Raburn getting all the PA’s that I would rather see the 4 guys in the last sentence get…
And then there is players like Raburn… sure he might be alot better than Wells or Ramirez this year and might add 1-2 WAR above what they could… BUT he is 30 and if the last 2 or 3 post steroid years have taught us anything, it is that older players age much quicker than most people think… Sure during the steroid era guys in their late 30’s were hitting 40HR’s… But not before and not after… SO Raburn is already at is peak.. it si all down hill..
Next year we will have ?’s at catcher, 3b, ss, rf, and lf…. I would like to see who could fill one of those roles and be great… not just which guy could be a warm body and not embrass themselves….
Wouldnt it be nice to find out if Avila was the answer long term, or that he isnt??? Then if he is, good that means more to spend at 3B or SS… If he isnt then next year when we have money to spend, AND BEFORE we spend it elsewhere, we could go out and get a nice FA catcher or make a trade…
Wouldn’t it be nice to see if Wells, or Ramirez has All Star potential? and that Wells or Ramirez could lock down LF for years to come then we could spend on a good hitting RF, or trade for one…
It is looking like we will for sure have a hole at 3B unless we resign Inge..(I hope not but if we do it has to be at a reduced rate)… But we also have a HUGE hole at SS to fill… WOULDN’T IT BE NICE TO SPEND ALL OR MOST OF THE MONEY ON THOSE 2 POSTIONS AND GET ALLSTAR GUYS?? That could happen if we dont have to spend on RF, LF, and C… BUT we probably wont be able to because we wont know if our farm can fill RF and LF with above average players..
But instead, it looks like most people would rather play Raburn, Laird, Guillen, Maggs and Damon and take a shot at the division… I think Maggs should be fine, but i dont want him to hit his PA limit to vest either…
Those older guys compared to the younger ones maybe add 3-4 WAR to the team… BUT the younger guys could break out and provied just as much value..
BTW
as to SS and 3B for next year… the FA class isnt that great at those 2 postions so i know we wouldnt be able to sign 2 all star free agents for SS and 3B.. but a trade could net us one and a signing another… or atleast we could get one..
There are some guys available though at those 2 postions and for LF, RF and C if need be… But like I said I would like to see if we could atleast fill C and LF or RF internally…
OH ALSO WE WILL NEED A DH AFTER GUILLEN IS DONE… I know he is signed for next year but who knows if he will even be able to walk by then…
For SS there are a few possibilities… Jose Reyes has a $11 mil team option, but if the Mets bomb again I could see thier financial situation causing them not to pick it up… there is not much else after him those as per A.S.’s…
For 3B is is a little better… Peralta will be 29 and has a $9 mil option that I just can’t see Cleveland picking up… Beltre might turn down his opiton if he has a big year this year and look for the pig day day… his defense is better than Inge, he is 2 years younger, and much better at the plate… Aramis Ramirez has $14.6 PLAYER option, but i dont see him turing that down unless the market changes…
RF/LF/DH has some great possibilities… Crawford or Werth would be my #1 and #2 opitons OVERALL next offseason… So if Ramirez or Wells could fill one spot the other 2 could be filled by Crawford and Strieby(DH)…. Dunn might be available but the Nats have talked to him about an extention already…Hawpe could fill a DH role nicely… Dejesus could be a cheap value pickup…
And at Catcher Mauer is most likely getting resigned, and so will Vmart… so there isnt much there..
ANYHOW, there are a few top notch player available next year… Crawford, Werth, Dunn, Reyes, Peralta, Belre…
But to sign anyone of those we will need to spend big bucks… and if we have to spread the $$ around to 4 or 5 positons, none of those guys will be within our reach…
BUT if some holes are plugged long term with quality players this year like Wells, Ramirez, Avila, Strieby, then the Tigers could set themselves up to be the best team in the Central for the next 5 years…
And at
Sticking young players in the majors doesn't automatically make them better
Really, it usually has the opposite effect. Simply “giving the young guys ABs” is not exactly a sound strategy.
Also, I know this is a stupid argument, but you seriously expect a team spending 120+ million dollars to play for next year? That’s just not how it works. The Tigers are spending a ton of money, so they’re inevitably going to want to play for the division title.
Yes we do have a chance
I understand your thinking, but I dont agree with your rationale on how to do it. This is one of the triciest things to do in baseball. Scout out the player, draft him, put him through the system, and know when and if he’s ready. Than, when and if he’s ready you send him to the ML team. The manager then decides where and how to use him. Most teams try and do it with balance. Balance of the game situation, balance with the Veterans on the team for playing time. You dont just throw them in there and let the vets sit and say, alright your it lets see what you got. Thats what September is for, when you expand your roster and see what the kids can do. Some you can throw in they perform well and never look back and they become the utleys, jeters, holidays, texerias. Some may need to go back down and gets some refining and come back. Yes we eventually have to find out what they can do. But, it must be done delicately, and ease them in. And usually, not all at once. However, I do respect your point of view jpolut.
i understand how most team do it...
but that doesnt make it right… teams evaluated players based on the shape of thier face untill the mid 1990’s… Most teams evaluated talent based on AVE, Wins and RBI’s untill just 10 years ago.. Manager continue to sacrifce whenthe odds are against it…
And a few teams do do what i suggested…
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying to bench Maggs, Raburn or Guillen… I just think players with upside should get signifcant AB’s at the expense of some of the older players that will be gone next year or the year after…
It would make it so the Tigers are set up for the future much better…
And as to spending $120 mil and not competeing… I think we would have just a good of a chance playing guys like Wells and Ramirez as we would Guillen, damon or Raburn…
30 is too old?
“Sure during the steroid era guys in their late 30’s were hitting 40HR’s… But not before and not after”
Raburn is 30 now? Are you really sure about your post? Ruth was over 30 when he had his 60 homer year. Here are a few names who hit 40 homers in a year after the age of 30 & even int their mid to upper 30’s: Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Stargell, Billy Williams, Frank Howard. There are many more who had good averages & hit 30 or more Hr’s per year after 30 while not taking steroids.
Raburn should be able to hit mid/high 20 hr’s per year & bat .280 or higher, 80+ RBI’s.
My Choice is Ramirez in Left, Jackson in Center, Clete in right (see if he can improve on his hitting, but his arm is made for right field & not everyone on our team will be a .300 or power hitter, some are kept for their defense).
I was for the Damon deal but I am changing my mind since he has not accepted the offer made. It was fare and if he wanted to play in Detroit like they said, he would have signed by now. I say we waited long enough, let him go & play our youth.
by TigersFan1957 on Feb 18, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
1966 Triple Crown
Frank Robinson won the Triple Crown in 1966. He was 31 years old most of the season, he turned 32 on 08/31.
Over 30 does not mean washed up.
by TigersFan1957 on Feb 19, 2010 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
1934 Triple Crown
Lou Gehrig won the Triple Crown in 1934. He turned 32 on 06/19 of that season.
All other Triple Crow winners were under 30 years of age, some came close though.
by TigersFan1957 on Feb 19, 2010 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
Today none of these thinghs matter to me...
because spring training has officially started. New life has been breathed into me and there are only 49 days until the home opener. Yay!
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Coke as a starter
I’m beginning to think this may happen. With the 45 left-handed relievers on the roster, Coke isn’t crucial to bullpen – and considering bad contract starters are all in final year of bad contracts – no one ‘needs’ to be the fifth starter. So, Coke could possibly be the best option for fifth starter and therefore most valuable to team as fifth starter. It wouldn’t shock me if Tigers cut Roberston, gave away Galaragga, and stashed WIllis on DL or cut Willis. There’s nothing stopping the Tigers from breaking camp with 13 pitchers:
Justin, Rick, Max, Jeremy and Phil Coke
Valverde, Zumaya, Ni, Minor, Bonine, Perry, Thomas, Seay, Schereleth
In my view, the Tigers see him as a last resort, though
Only if all other options fail to secure the spot.
My point is opposite. Unlike last year they don’t need to hope for roles for Robertson and Willis. They can cut those guys lose. I think they are looking for guy who can win most games as 5th starter. If it’s coke (and it probably will be) it’ll be easy to slot him there since the bullpen is so (lefty) deep.
by TigerFaninDC on Feb 18, 2010 10:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I know it makes perfect sense
but that’s just way easier to say when you’re not writing these guys million dollar checks.
13 or 14?
you need to cut one more to reach 13 pitchers.
by TigersFan1957 on Feb 19, 2010 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
"gave away Galaragga"
Unless I’m mistaken, they can simply send him to Toledo
Everyone has been underating Bondo
I agree with you “demondeaconsbaseball” Bondo has been shafted by these posts. Until his injury’s he had been improving and had great stuff. Even playing in the bad years I liked his stuff. I think he will win more than 14 games this year. We will just have to wait & see for sure though. As for a third pitch he should try the Split Finger Fast Ball/Fork Ball. With his fast ball & slider this would be awesome. Best Wishes 2010 Bondo, glad to have you back.

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