What does Damon signing mean for Raburn and Guillen?
I think it's safe to say we've covered the Damonpalooza ad nauseam. But, just in case you can't get enough of this wonderful gent (who you all are most assuredly going to cheer for endlessly on opening day, right? Right?), I bring you another post chalked full of Johnny Damon. You can thank me later.
The deal is $8 million for one year to, presumably, man left field. CHONE is projecting a .352 wOBA and a .270/.357/.432 triple slash line. Defensively, it doesn't think Damon's fallen off the cliff like the Fans Projections have. Fans have him at -7 runs defensively while CHONE puts him at +6.4. Going by CHONE, we're looking at a projection of 3.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If you split the difference on the defensive side of things, knock off around 0.5 WAR. But, I agree more with CHONE, so I'm going to roll with the 3.2 WAR projection, but for the sake of ease, will just call it 3 WAR.
But, you can't compare Damon in a vacuum. What were the Tigers other options in left field? We'll take a look at that after the jump...
The other options for left field are Carlos Guillen and Ryan Raburn. There's also Clete Thomas but I doubt he'd really be in the running for it, so I'm excluding him for this post.
Guillen is projected by CHONE to post a .344 wOBA. Injuries and his age are held against him by CHONE, so if you'd like to bump him up a bit, then feel free. He's an above-average bat when in the lineup when healthy and his core numbers, as Dave Cameron points out, really didn't change much when he got in the lineup last year.
The question with Guillen though, is always health and defense. CHONE has him as exactly average defensively and the Fans see him at about -3 runs defensively. I think it'd possibly be a touch worse than the Fans projection, but -5 is nice and round, so we'll go with that. I calculate Guillen to be around 1.20 WAR if he is a full time DH getting 85% playing time. 85% is probably generous given his health but I don't think it's outrageous if he's not in the field.
Raburn is projected to have a .351 wOBA and be 13 runs above average with the bat over 700 plate appearances -- which is regarded as 100% playing time. Defensively he projects to be just a touch above average, but I'll just call him average. Add in positional adjustments and adjust for 85% playing time, I get a 2.4 WAR projection for Raburn if he were to be the everyday left field starter.
I've voiced around here a couple different times that I'm a believer in Raburn. If you don't think he's as good offensively as his projections suggest, you can take him down 0.5 WAR if you'd like to right around a league average regular. However, he's not the full time start in LF and Damon does look to be the better player, as judged by WAR.
But the biggest contention to the Damon signing isn't his on-field talents, it's with the money. When I first heard it was $8 million, I immediately cringed. I loved the deal at the $4-5 million range. I liked it at $6 million. I thought it was passable at $7 million. $8 million is really pushing the boundaries.
Kurt talked me off the ledge, though. Yes, given the soft market for Damon this is an overpayment. However, he projects to be, at worst, worth the exact amount we paid him -- and there's a couple million in surplus value potential if he has a better-than-projected season.
But, the $8 million spent likely wasn't going to be spent elsewhere during this off season given that pitchers and catchers have reported. So, this deal isn't infringing on other moves we would've made before opening day. The Jose Valverde contract was early enough in the off season that, at the time, it looked possible that it was going to impede upgrading more vital areas of the ball club. The only time Damon's price tag becomes an issue is acquiring a player at the trade deadline if the Tigers are contention, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it (my way of saying, "Don't be shocked if the Tigers aren't in contention").
The other issue is that Damon's signing could help save the Tigers money in the long run. If Magglio Ordonez is off to an awful start, with Damon in left field we can put Raburn in right field and keep Guillen at DH. This limits Maggs' plate appearances and games started and potentially keeps that final year option from triggering. I don't think this scenario is likely to happen, but it puts us in a better position than if we had Guillen in left and Raburn as the super sub.
On paper, the Tigers are a better team with Damon in the fold. Yes, they over paid given his market, but with the last reported White Sox offer being in the $6 million range -- and the report by USA Today's Bob Nightengale the Rays were "in it until the end" -- it isn't a grotesque overpayment. Maybe now the national media will pick up the hint that MLB.com's Jason Beck had been saying all along: the Tigers aren't in dire straits financially and this is off season is mostly made up of the Tigers trying to better the ball club, rather than shedding payroll.
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Comments
I said in another post myself....
…That Raburn is 30 now and moving past his prime….Guys in the non steroid era wont be putting up huge nunbers in there 30s like in th past unless they are special talents….I say trade Raburn while his value is high and get a infielder for depth….So I think Raburn is as good as gone.
by BennieBladesFan on Feb 22, 2010 9:32 AM EST reply actions
technically he's 28...
and will be 29 for basically all of the season.
And really baseball prime is a lot different than other sports. There’s a good reason that a lot of players can keep playing at a decent level until they’re 40.
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I agree...
……but that was in the steroid era from 85-2005…..Its different now….he is the oldest of the guys between Wilkin Clete and Austin…..i think we need a some infield help and he will be the one that gets us the best one in a trade.
by BennieBladesFan on Feb 22, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
What it means is that we now have 2 sub par LF’s sharing that position and the DH slot! At least Johnny is good at tracking a fly ball! What it also means is that Ryan Raburn is super sub, He’ll play 3B, LF, CF, RF and maybe a bit of 2B
by Tiger-prestone on Feb 22, 2010 10:10 AM EST reply actions
I agree
I can see Raburn still getting a bunch of AB’s
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 22, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think Raburn will go anywhere
I do believe the DH role will be split 3 ways between Maggs Carlos and Damon, giving Raburn play time. I may be wrong, but I also think Carlos will end up on the DL, based on his history, also giving playing time to Raburn.
But who knows they may trade him, it’s early so we’ll see. But that’s my opinion.
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Damon signing has been a great discussion
Some people like the signing and some don’t. I think both sides are right. The only think I don’t like is Raburn gets less playing and Thomas gets send down and one of the slated AAA players gets demoted to AA. But there is presense of a veteren left handed bat that can lead off. This takes pressure off of Jackson from leading off or some else. There is usually an injury or two during the long season so the Tigers added depth.
good move
I’m not worried about Damon’s salary. The fact that it’s just a one year deal is a positive. The Tigers needed a left-handed bat badly so I’m happy with this move. I think the CHONE offensive projections look about right but I’m not sure about the defense. His 2007-2008 numbers were very good; not so good last year. For what it’s worth, he got about the same overall rating as Raburn on the Fans’ scouting report.
Lee
The only way I would be happy with this move is if AJax goes down to AAA. I think Raburn would be an above average defender if he was given the chance to play an entire season in the outfield. Remember because he’s been the supersub for the last 3 years he hasn’t gotten much practice at any defensive position. And when you factor in his arm strength I think he would end up being a lot better than Damon defensively. I’m a big supporter of Raburn, he needs to play full time if this club has a chance of winning, and if he doesn’t play full time then the team doesn’t deserve to win because they were idiotic. Any team that doesn’t put their best players on the field doesn’t deserve to win, and if Maggs or AJax are in any sort of slump and getting playing time over Raburn then we’re not putting our best lineup on the field.
With the aging outfield
and Plastic Knees at third, Raburn is going to get plenty of playing time. Plus, who says he repeats those offensive numbers when given more ABs? Pitchers have had an offseason to break down what he’s capable of and might have a better idea of how to get him out now. Don’t be surprised if his hitting regresses a bit this season.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
if you take that stance with players who have a good season...
why let anybody who has a good season get a chance to duplicate their success?
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I'm not saying that
I’m just counterpointing the people that think that Raburn is our God-send in LF, or those that think Raburn automatically won’t see the light of day again. I think he’s a good option, especially against lefties when he’s shown more power. I’m a fan of the Damon signing because it improves the outfield depth, not because it relegates Raburn to the bench.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Plus Raburn has a shot at CF...
everybody has AJAX pasted in there but I don’t think anything is for sure with this kid yet.
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True
and don’t forget about Casper Wells
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What about Wilkin?
I feel like this guy isn’t ever going to get his chance. I just felt that we had a number of guys to mix and match— Raburn, Clete, Ramirez, Casper Wells… to make throwing 8M at Damon unnecessary.
Wilkin had a .326 OBP and a 33 K% in Toledo last year. That’s only going to get worse in the majors. He needs to improve before he becomes any more than a 4th outfielder.
by StringTheory on Feb 22, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Ding, ding, ding. I’m not on the Wilkin Ramirez bandwagon.
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JD's big endorsement
Yeah, but do Raburn or Guillen look like the Murray’s Auto guy? I think not! 

by Todd Jones Mustache Ride on Feb 22, 2010 11:07 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Now we know
why the Tigers signed Damon
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
If that's the case...
Damon’s going to be surprised when he finds out Murray’s was bought out by O’Reilly’s Auto Parts.
by Ian Casselberry on Feb 22, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Bummer
No more Murray’s, huh? I always liked their mascot/logo. The “smiling dirtbag” (not sure if he has a real name) is both perfectly on target and deliciously un-PC. He’s like a modern era cousin to the Tribe’s Smiling Indian.
by Todd Jones Mustache Ride on Feb 22, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
without
the whole “offending an entire indigenous society” aspect.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Right now on ESPN...
They were talkin about how Curt fits into the Yankee lineup. Still really weird seeing him in those pinstripes. I usually despise every single player in that organization, but I wish him well
I'm not going to be surprised if the Tigers are not in contention
But that’s just me as a pessimist, and thinking that the Twins seem to have improved themselves, and the Tigers, on balance, aren’t as good as their 2009 version.
Does Damon even that up? I’m not sure, but offensively, he does bring back some of the stuff that jettisoning Granderson and Placido took off the table. And from that point of view, I’m inclined to like this signing.
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I’d like to see a Raburn/Thomas platoon in CF if/when Jackson can’t hit. Raburn can mash LHP, and he should be in the lineup every time one starts against us, but he’s much less consistent against RHP.
I’d like a 70/30 platoon of Raburn/Clete in CF. I am a big time believer in Raburn. I am not knocking clete though. He’s a valuable defender who should probably be a top 3 outfielder for a team.
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Clete looked awful
the last two months of the season. But then, Raburn looked shaky defensively as well. I have more confidence in Raburn to be able to make defensive adjustments than I have in Clete to make the necessary adjustments at the plate. In fact, Clete, Wells, Boesch, and Wilkin Ramirez all have huge holes in their swings that are likely to be exploited by even average major league pitchers. Not the case with Raburn. He can hit both lefties and righties.
If AJax makes it, Clete probably doesn’t make the roster. If AJax doesn’t make it, they probably give Clete the next crack at the starting job, but I’d much prefer Raburn in the every day lineup. Whether Leyland shares those sentiments is a big question for me. I don’t want to see Clete Thomas getting the lion’s share of AB’s in platoon with Raburn.
Clete is liked by all defensive measures that I’ve seen. The worst is average by CHONE. Fan projections are much higher defensively (6 runs), though it’s a small number of ballots.
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The best thing Clete has going for him
is defense. He fast and has great range; both assets, imo. BUT – I always dread when he steps to the plate, because I know he’s going to try to swing for the seats. However, maybe that’s something they’ve been working on in the off season
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The K’s absolutely suck, but he’s above-average in drawing a walk and has decent pop when he does make contact. Couple that with above-average defense and there’s good value there.
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if he would shorten
up that bat stroke, he’d make more contact, well at least that’s what i think. but what do i know, I’m just a girl…
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
I find that strikeouts are much, much more frustrating for fans/coaches than they actually affect a players value. Devil’s advocate would say that if he were to shorten up his swing, would he make as hard of contact as he does now? Who knows. But I’d take hard contact with lots of K’s over weak contact without K’s.
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I guess we'd have to establish what we mean...
by “shortening up his swing.” If it is what traditional hitting mechanics will call for than that he bring his hands in closer to his chest at the beginning of his swing. If my memory serves me correctly (quick video search revealed no conclusive video to back up this opinion) this is something Clete has always needed to do to consistently establish success at the plate.
Now just to answer Mikes questions about whether his power will go down if his swing shortens: The answer it won’t go down because a good baseball swing is like a good baseball pitch. The power does not come from the arms. It comes from the hips and legs.
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how about
when the ball comes to him, he doesn’t spin outta his shoes trying to hit it. That he looks to make contact and find a gap.
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Also
It seems we always start the season playing small ball, working the guys around the bases and lose that or are coached out of that role by time June comes around. I think its more important to manufacture runs that it is to hit homers. All I am ever looking for as a fan, is a guy to find the gap, get on base and move the previous runner along, possibley home, and when they see they are going to make really good contact, then swing hard. Let bat use the speed of the ball, not vice verse.
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I disagree. The HR is the best result possible of every single AB.
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I know, i was coming from a devils advocate point of view.
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touche
But unless we’re talking about someone like Miguel Cabrera. I think finding the holes in the field si much more important. Don’t get me wrong I’d love to see every gut hit a homer that steps to the plate, but realistically, we know that’s not going to happen. Good examples, (for me anyway) are Gardenhire and Scioscia. Both have a style that seems to work well. They work the bases and they let their guys run. Small ball.
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Dang, we disagree a ton, haha. I’m not a Gardenhire fan and think the “good small ball” tag he gets it is a bit unwarranted. I love watching Sciofsdofasdo manage, though.
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by Mike Rogers on Feb 24, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I think
a lot of Gardenhire’s “small-ball” stigma comes from the fact that Minnesota has one of the smaller payrolls in baseball, and can’t hold on to the sluggers that other teams with larger payrolls throw out more money for. Part of it is by design, but part of it is the economics of the game. Still, you can’t deny that Gardenhire is doing a great job with the players he has in Minnesota. They’re always in the running for the division.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 24, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
I have to agree with DetroitChik...
While the HR is obviously the best possible result, it is also the least likely one. It is best to try and play the game one base at a time and rely on good pitching to keep a small lead.
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Well, hitters should be focusing on making the hardest contact possible. As a fan, i want every batted ball to be a HR. Why root for anything less?
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I don't question Clete's defense at all
IN fact, I think he’s probably the best defensive outfielder on the roster. He has all the tools, most impressive of which is a canon for an arm that is deadly accurate.
At the plate, he looked great after he was sent down and did some work with Bull Durham, then after a while, that loop was back in his swing. Batting him third couldn’t have helped matters. If he was plugged into a lead off role, that may be something that helps him down the road to what he should be doing. He hit only .216 in August and .190 in Sept/ October. But Raburn can hit, and that’s something that the Tigers need in the lineup with their current cast than a defensive replacement. Raburn can be a valuable bat as a replacement, including coming to bat in key situations rather than sending up one of the many automatic outs that plague the Tiger lineup.
Damon did affect a Tiger Decision
At this point, Im just trying to get a grasp on the players MI, DD & JL have for our 2010 Tigers. How they got here or what they are paid makes no difference to me. I m looking at the hand that is dealt. As far as position players go it appears the tigers only have two decisions to make. Who is the extra outfielder to go, and, who is the extra infielder besides Santiago. We are all assuming Jackson is making the team. I am not so sure. If Wells, or Rameriz, or even Thomas does better Jackson may not make the team. But assuming he does. Guilen, Mags, Jackson, Damon, Thomas are the outfielders. Rayburn gets counted as the super sub (Infield/outfield both) but gets counted as an infielder with Santiago. This gives us both right hand/left handed backups at the infield and outfield positions. The best case would be though that someone other then Jackson has a better spring like Wells or Ramierz. Then it may be a matter of who has options to go down. Either way, I like our team better this year than last years model. If we could get Bondo and Robertson/Garralaga back to form we could be in for an exciting Tiger Year. PLAY BALL!!!
In case anyone is interested
foxsports is streaming the Damon Presser live at 2:00pm est
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you only have yourself to blame when I do another Damon post
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 22, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
lol
I am coming to terms with it, Kurt. If you can’t beat ’em…
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you luck out, i'm not getting any sound
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 22, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
there's a great story in the freep
and leyland details how he’s going to use all the guys in the line up and DH roles.
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for the first game
we all know how much Leyland loves to play with his lineups at a whim
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
I'm getting tons of connection hiccups.
Hopefully they save and upload it later.
by StringTheory on Feb 22, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Random thoughts on Damon and stuff
- I’m mildly surprised if at least some of Damon’s salary isn’t deferred. Boras was said to be willing to do that so long as he got Damon the salary that he wanted, and the Tiger payroll situation begs for deferment. Moreover, giving Damon $ 8 million while not paying Granderson 5.5 mil, with all of it being affordable starting in 2011, seems to be contradictory.
- I never thought that giving $ 7 mil to Valverde had any opportunity cost in terms of other players. I believed all along, and still do, that DD had budgeted for a closer from day one this off season, and that was part of the reason why Granderson was traded. First, they offered Rodney one year and Lyon two, but both got better deals and walked. I don’t blame DD for not matching either offer for those two. Then, the best closer on the market fell into DD’s lap at about a 30% discount, which was not much more than he’d have had to pay Rodney or Lyon per annum. The next best alternative was Kevin Gregg, who was fairly mediocre- certainly not a closer- when he was with the Angels, and was shipped out by LAA and Florida for not much in return. Quite a drop off from Valverde, IMO.
- If you buy the premise that DD was under orders to not increase payroll above the 2009 level, then it necessarily follows that he HAD to trade at least two players making $ 5 mil a year or more. That’s just the reality of the math. They had $ 18.3 mil in scheduled pay hikes, plus $ 11.5 mil in arbitration increases including Jackson’s, and they had some $ 25.5 mil coming off the payroll with expiring contracts. If DD wanted to bring back, or replace ANY of the departing free agents (SS, 2B, CL, RP), then he had to slash more payroll, and $ 72 mil was immovable. The choices were Verlander, Jackson, Granderson, and Cabrera. Miggy could not be moved for full value, and they opted to extend Verlander, trade E Jax, promote Sizemore, and try to replace the closer. The math dictated that they make another trade to get the closer, plus cut Thames to bring back Everett.
- So far, it’s all making mathematical and financial sense. Yes, there are baseball reasons such as Granderson’s two year decline, and maybe even some carousing that caused concern, and yes Scherzer was under club control for more years than Edwin. Yeah, DD got three players, in essence, for Curtis, but I can’t call that swap a team upgrade at least in the short term. Now add Damon and maybe it’s a net upgrade, (still questionable) but there had to be some change of heart/ mind on the spending side unless some of Damon’s salary is deferred.
Agreed RE: Gregg
He was an absolute bust with the Cubs, I’m glad the Tigers didn’t offer him. And I’d like to think trading Jackson for Scherzer (because it was basically a 1-for-1 deal) was about more than just salary. Scherzer has a much higher ceiling.
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
hahaha
how did we all miss that?
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by handsomerob1 on Feb 22, 2010 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
It’s how Johnny Damon would talk in my mind.
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