Contrary to belief, the Tigers were consistent with offseason plans

Yes, the Tigers were consistent in sticking to their plans for the off season. There was never a “fire sale” in the sense that they weren’t selling off players just to save money. But there certainly was an initial reality staring Dave Dombrowski right in the eye, pointing at him with both barrels. Four players at key positions were free agents. A second baseman, shortstop, closer, and primary set up reliever. If he planned to replace ANY of them, or bring ANY of them back, payroll would be higher in 2010 than it was in 2009.

You do the math:
- $ 25.5 million came off the payroll in expiring contracts belonging to those free agents named above, plus $ 13 million to Gary Sheffield.
- $ 18.3 million was already spoken for in scheduled payroll increases to Ordonez, Guillen, Cabrera, Willis, Robertson, Granderson, and Inge.
- $ 10.5 million in increases was eventually given to Verlander, Laird, Seay, Santiago, Miner, Zumaya, and Jackson. Thames and Treanor stood to get maybe another $ 1 million if they were offered arbitration, settling or not.
 
So, right there, payroll is going UP if Dombrowski stands pat and just replaces players at four key positions internally. Was that an option? Not really. Only at second base, where they figured that Scott Sizemore was major league ready, could they go that route.
 
I maintain that Illitch, while not ordering a dramatic reduction in payroll, could hardly stand in this economy to push payroll dramatically higher by coming back with the same team, and replacing or retaining the four free agents.

So what’s the plan? What are the priorities? Well, Huff and Washburn were rentals. They’re outta here. Thames and Treanor were not worth their salaries, and, unlike that $ 72 million in guaranteed bad contracts, they could be cut, and they were. I’m sure that DD would have traded them if there was any market at all, but apparently there wasn’t, and the winter hasn’t been kind to those players since being released. Now, we’re just about at break even, without retaining or replacing any free agents. We’ve saved enough to resign our ultra cheap shortstop. Done. What’s next?

 Trades HAD to be made. Yes, the primary motive was financial. Not that there weren’t legit baseball reasons, but money was indeed the chief concern. In order to replace key players on the roster, the payroll HAD to be reworked. What players could be dealt, making more than, say $ 5 million a year, who could be traded. Well, there’s $ 72 million in contracts that CAN’T be moved. What’s left is Cabrera, Verlander, Granderson, and Jackson. That’s IT. Which players are we building this team around for the future?

Well, get Verlander signed. He stands to be the biggest variable on the 2010 payroll in terms of what he might get, and he’s the one player more than all others we’d like to lock up long term, critical to the success of the team. He’s in the budget. Next, we need a closer, but we need to clear some payroll first. Trade Jackson for a younger starting pitcher with big upside. Edwin is an all star that may never be worth more. He was inconsistent ending both of the last two seasons, and Boras is definitely taking him to free agency after two years. This part of the trade was a no brainer.

Who else? Cabrera? If you can unload that contract, you won’t get much back in players. You want to pay him to play somewhere else? I doubt it. So he stays. That leaves Granderson. He makes only 5.5 mil in 2010, but is due for big raises. He hit .249, was THE worst hitter in the league vs lefties, and he’s on a two year decline. Any more decline, and he’ll be just another bad contract. There’s no other choice.

So, Granderson is traded for two relievers and a CF prospect. Does this help the team in 2010? Absolutely not. Will it help in the long run? That depends on how DD spends the money after this season. But for now, he has wiggle room to buy a closer, and he just traded for two good relievers to upgrade the bullpen.

Rodney and Lyon were offered arbitration, which could only result in a one year deal. But DD came right out and said that he’d be surprised if either one accepted. Rodney was offered a one year contract, Lyon two years (sounds like they preferred Lyon), but each got more lucrative offers elsewhere. Plan C= see who falls through the cracks. Both the arbitration offers and the contract offers were within the budget, made possible by the trades that DD was working concurrently. As it worked out, the best closer on the market was still on the market, and available at a 30% discount in January. $ 7 mil is a little more than DD had probably budgeted for a closer, but he paid Todd Jones that much a couple years ago fer krissakes!

DD had not given out a single multi year contract to a player since before the 2006 season, and he wasn’t exactly planning on doing that now, either, but this was too good to pass up. When the alternative was Kevin Gregg, who was yanked from the closer’s role at Wrigley, the choice was clearer. Give up the first round pick, get what you can with the two supplemental picks for Rodney and Lyon, and sign Valverde.

AT this point of the winter, DD had replaced Polanco with Sizemore, and Granderson with Austin Jackson. He brought back Everett, and cut Thames and Treanor. He had upgraded the bullpen, and shed enough salary to buy his closer, getting the best closer on the market. In my view, the team was still downgraded, was missing a 1 and 2 hitter, and had the same putrid bottom of the order returning.

More importantly, while the payroll is still top five, and about where it was in 2009, the Tigers have an influx of young talent instead of just getting older and slower. They have $ 67 million coming off the payroll after 2010, and only four relatively easy arbitration eligible players on the calendar next winter. The challenge remaining will be to replace the vacancies left by the departing bad contracts, but there is payroll flexibility and roster flexibility to shape the team in DD’s image now.

Is there room to make another upgrade? Well, here’s where they departed from the plan, if at all. I’d be willing to bet that the plan all along was to look for the 2010 version of Bobby Abreu- and they found him. Did they adjust the plan here? I think so, somewhat, but I think it was a flex plan to begin with. What DD was after was getting creative in making some moves to free up space to restock the bullpen replace or retain the departing free agents, and see what is left at a bargain rate. I think that $ 8 million was more than DD had been budgeted, and he came right out and said so. But he didn’t run a fire sale, didn’t really cut payroll other than to give himself some wiggle room, and Damon fit the needs of the lineup to a T.

Is the 2010 team any better or worse than the 2009 model? Ironically, I think that all comes down to whether there is any improvement from the guys who were on the roster in 2005, and 2006, and 2007, 08, and 09. If Magglio and Guillen and Inge hit better than they did in 2009, the team will be fine. If not, they won’t. The more things change, the more they stay the same. We’ve got at least one more year of the heroes of 2006, for better or worse, in sickness and in health. Till bad contracts expire do we part. Might as well make the most of it. That was the plan all along, right?

Glad this was written, Kurt. Someone should post this entire thing in the comments section of any article stating the Tigers were in Fire Sale mode.

All along I’ve said they’ve been re-tooling, not breaking it down with a firesale and rebuilding. For the most part I really like our offseason… sets us up to be competitive this year, and also sets us up nicely for down the road in 2-3 years

No question that DD faced some serious payroll issues for the 2010 season. The Tigers actually got to the point where they paid a luxury tax in 2008- one of two teams to do so- and they finished in last place. There was simply no room to manoeuver, and players had to be replaced. So, he prioritized. Locking up Verlander and a signing closer took top priority. But this was far from a fire sale. I got tired of the articles by Joel Sherman, looking through his pinstriped glasses, stating so matter of factly that the Tigers were in cost cutting mode. All you had to do was to look at what was happening with the payroll, and see that it was unsustainable.

This doesn’t make DD any sort of a genius- at least not yet. I see a team that is about as good as it was last year, with the potential to be better if the real team leaders in the heart of the order can regain some of their old form. But the full results won’t be known until we see what DD does with the new and improved payroll situation in 2011. He has flexibility, but he has gaping holes to fill. He just won’t be saddled with his own mistakes of the past nearly as much as he has been the past couple of years. There’s no reason for a team with a top five payroll to be the club that signs the fewest number and spends the least amount on free agents when there are glaring needs to be filled.

But the Tigers never were in fire sale mode.