Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers come to 5-year agreement: AP report
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 3, 2010 8:12 PM EST
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Larry Lage of the Associated Press reports the Tigers and Justin Verlander have reached a five year deal worth an estimated $80 million dollars. The team has not yet made the announcement, but it could come as early as Thursday, the report said.
The deal would work out to an average of $16 million a season, though it is seldom as cut-and-dried as that.
Verlander and the Tigers were set to go to arbitration this month to decide whether his asking price of $9.5 million or their offer of $6.9 was the better fit, so that would obviously be a moot point. Dombrowski will continue his track recording of avoiding arbitration with players during his tenure as the Tigers' GM. Verlander will likely be earning less than $16 million at the front of the deal and probably will take home near $20 million a season at the back.
As Lage reports, if the figure is right Verlander will earn about $2 million more than Seattle's Felix Hernandez over the same time period. Hernandez (stats) is the obvious comparison for two reasons. The first is that he recently came to an extension with the Mariners, valued at $78 million over five years. That appeared to set for the market for Verlander (stats), who is three years older than Hernandez and has bested him just once in the Fielding Independent Pitching stat since 2006. That once was 2009, while Hernandez owns a career 3.54 vs. 3.78 advantage. Hernandez's advantage in ERA grows to 3.45 against Verlander's 3.92. The Venezuelan has also struck out more per nine games and walked fewer over the course of his career.
And while some will want to argue under no circumstances should Verlander be paid more than Hernandez, I am not one of them. At just $400K more per season on average, it is not a vast overpay. One long time commenter and friend of mine, Joe Galea, described that as the "You're making me spend the next five years of my life in Detroit" tax.
Besides, none of that really matters to Tigers fans. After the trade of center fielder Curtis Granderson, it comes as some assurance -- for now, anyway -- Verlander will not be running off to New York on his own accord any time soon. Verlander has spent his entire career in the Old English D so far and in 2009 finally grew into the ace many people envisioned. He stepped up as a much-needed stopper and stood tall in Game 162 to assure the Tigers at least made it to a one-game playoff against the Twins.
Verlander will also be able to mentor younger prodigies Max Scherzer -- who is a similar powerful strikeout pitcher in many ways -- and Rick Porcello for the foreseeable future. When youngsters Casey Crosby and Jacob Turner are given their shots in the next couple of years, Verlander will be there as well. A slew of relievers -- as Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski does believe in hard throwers -- can come to Verlander for any advice, as well.
With spring training a little more than two weeks away, this comes as a win for the Tigers, the pitcher and their fans.
The Math:
I have Justin Verlander being worth around $87.5 million over the next 5 years, giving the Tigers a surplus value of $7.5 million -- pretty negligible. My projection has him around 20 Wins Above Replacement in the life of the contract, but that still might be a touch low. If he reaches my 20 projected WAR, the Tigers are paying him at $4 million per win which is about as fair as it gets. Got to like this deal from both sides, much like the Felix Hernandez contract that seemed to serve as the basis for the Verlander deal.
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You Bad S.O.B.
Good deal for all involved. No fire sale here.
by rook34 on Feb 3, 2010 8:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Good point...
You kind of sum up my view…this signing, along with Valverde, proves that the Granderson trade was NOT about the money, as the typical pundit viewed it…rather, they thought Granderson had peaked and they were going to get max value for him before his shortcomings became overtly apparent. And Polanco, while missed, was not going to be worth what the Phillies are going to pay him.
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it instantly popped into my head...
that’s for sure.
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that really isn't a joke
Signing in Detroit for 5 years means he can’t sign in a major media market and possibly increase his marketing income.
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 3, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
Came across as less of a joke against Detroit and more, like Kurt said, a fact about not being in one of the big media markets (not that Detroit is tiny by any stretch). If given the choice and all the deals were the same, most players would take the deal in New York or Boston or LA over the deal in Detroit.
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I considered it dark humor.
Though reading Kurt’s reply, it seems I misinterpreted. I live near 8 mile and I’m well aware of the city’s situation – I’m not an outsider disparaging the city just for kicks.
hey, I lived inside 8 mile and love what I consider my city
but it is still Detroit, kind of hard to hide that fact!
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 3, 2010 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
touche
It is what it is. I live in Southwest Detroit and have for the better part of my life. We take the good with the bad here, and are used to be knocked down. You gotta be thick skinned to live in the D and take all the comments with a grain of salt. I know about all the little gems hidden in my neighborhood and in my city. Those who never come and knock, well, they don’t know what they’re missing. I love Detroit. Some think its a pit, but it’s my pit.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
You must hate the sun and the beach
You must be really grumpy or hate beaches/sun/beautiful cities.
Where would you rather live if you could choose? LA, Chicago, Seattle, SF, San Diego, Arizona, NYC, Philly, Baltimore, DC, Atlanta, Tampa, Miami, and Denver are all gorgeous cities or on the beach. Sure some have bad baseball teams but it’d much rather make 80 million and be a star in a city on the beach or in a modern city like Denver or Seattle then live in Michigan. I love Michigan. I grew up here and I’d love to move back after college. But if I could really choose and not worry about housing costs or finding a job I’d pick another city in a second.
I think they are all too crowded
I’d live in the middle of the woods by a lake with no stoplights within miles that don’t flash red 24 hours a day, if I had the choice.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
If I ever stop commenting here,
I’ve probably emptied my bank account and done exactly that. But Verlander re-signing makes it a little bit harder to leave.
by StringTheory on Feb 4, 2010 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Relax
I’m the guy who made the original comment to Kurt. I just moved to Cleveland but I lived near Detroit for most of my 26 years, so I’m not some random asswipe picking on the city. It was certainly a tongue-in-cheek dig at the city (that I happen to like a lot, warts and all) and an acknowledgment that most big time athletes would prefer to live and play elsewhere, for reasons of opportunity cost of missed endorsements, quality of life, whatever.
Trust me, since I’ve moved, I’ve heard more than my share of mean-spirited “jokes” about my hometown—like Detroitchik suggests, you have to have a thick skin and in my opinion, need to be able to laugh at yourself and the city. If that little comment got you upset, then I would suggest for your sake you not leave the mitten because it gets a lot worse once you cross the state line.
by Joe Galea on Feb 4, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
Which is what makes the jokes from the locals so ridiculous. But I guess it’s flattering in a way because they obviously consider us a rival city, if not in the same sense as Pittsburgh.
It also makes me feel I am qualified to call a shithole when I see one.
Just wanted a reason to post one of my favorite videos.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Washington has no state income tax
According to a post I saw at MLBTR. Considering that Michigan has a 3.9% income tax and that JV is likely subject to non-resident Detroit income tax (which is at least 1% from what I remember), there is literally a live-in-Detroit tax that Felix Hernandez is not subject to. Which might be where they got the extra $2 million from.
Great...
Good job all around.. The Tigers, Verlander, and his agent…
I really cold care less about elix making slightly more… One stat that Justin has an edge is in Innings Pitched… That doesnt make him better than Felix, but it is valuable to a team.
I hope the contract isnt too back loaded though just in case the worst happens…
This is the best news the Tigers fan base could get...
…save for the Granderson trade being just a bad dream.
It’s a win-win-win. Verlander gets paid, the Tigers buy off a couple years of free agency, and the fans are happy.
As for the size of the deal, it’s a market value contract for a legitimate staff ace. It’s the price of doing big league business.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience and a deputy editor at Bless You Boys.
Hmm I'm just not sure about this deal.
The fact that Verlander had one good game against the White Sox at the end of the season, and only one no-hitter in his career so far is only two good things against, count ’em, 282 walks in his career! That 1:141 good thing-to-walk ratio is ridiculous, and “we” are sending the wrong message by rewarding him for inefficient pitching. This makes the Valverde signing look like a steal.
Okay, seriously, I can’t come up with a single actual bad thing to say here, other than I don’t like the Felix comps as much as some. Fact is, for the next 5 years we may see more C.Y. awards come from the AL Central than the West and East combined, with Grienke, Verlander and Peavy around.
2010 is Year 4707 in the Chinese Calendar - The Year Of The Tiger
by TigerFanInCleveland on Feb 3, 2010 9:03 PM EST reply actions
... Only one no-hitter?
What is he suppose to get one every year?
He hasn’t been in the league that long, it’s not like he’s a veteran, he’s still young.
sorry
I was just attempting a witty “downer” response to the deal citing ridiculous statistics to badly support a poor argument on purpose. I love the deal.
Or, should I say, I can’t believe he’s only had one to this point. Other veterans worth a salary of this caliber (e.g. Nolan Ryan) have had six no hitters in their career.
2010 is Year 4707 in the Chinese Calendar - The Year Of The Tiger
by TigerFanInCleveland on Feb 4, 2010 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
Who cares?
Rec’d.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Feb 3, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Awesome deal
Please don’t get him injured, Jim.
No jinxing
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Feb 3, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
Double reverse jinx
That should do the trick.
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This is good news.
Through the haze of a bleary winter and an assortment of weirdness that for legal and moral reasons I cannot fully discuss, this qualifies as excellent news. And if they somehow land somebody who could actually hit that little white ball, well woe to the wicked and bring on the trumpets.
By the swollen ankle of Kalin Lucas, let us all sallyforth.
by Flying J on Feb 3, 2010 9:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This might be warranting a ban. How dare you speak ill of Kalin Lucas!
/off topic.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Meh
Big 10 basketball… psh.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Feb 3, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
the only ones I'll accept that answer from are your big brothers at UNC
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 3, 2010 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
Big Brothers?
Have you seen them play this year?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Feb 3, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
sure, this year
but they’ve got roughly two national championships and four Final Four appearances than you the past 10 years. And during that time my alma mater has one national title and four Final Four appearances coming out of the Big 10. When was your last appearance?
So why do I care what a Wakey says? :)
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 4, 2010 6:34 AM EST up reply actions
Fellow MSU fan approves of this post.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Funny
My roommate and I suggest you two go to a real school.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Feb 6, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
the fact it took two of you
to come up with that weak sauce comeback tells me all I need to know about Wake!
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 6, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
I wanted one thing out of this off-season
and that was DD to sign JV to a long term deal! This is awesome!
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on Feb 3, 2010 11:15 PM EST reply actions
High risk, high reward
We’ll see what happens. I’ve read too many studies about attrition rates on pitchers to get overly excited.
I do think his upside is off the charts and he still has room for improvement as I think his control can improve and I think we will see him pitch more effectively with men on base and limit those big innings as he gets older.
Verlander’s career BABIP and OPS against on fly balls is well below expected league average and he has suppressed his HR/FB ratio below league average for all 4 of his big league seasons. B/c of that, I don’t think being a fly ball pitcher hurts his value as much as it does for other guys. Continuing to post K/BB ratios at the level he did last year will help negate that concern, as well.
I’m not overly concerned that last year was a fluke, as I think he established a new talent level last season. My only real concern is with the injury risks involved in all pitcher signings and their high rates of attrition. Any long term injury would really hurt us as that would be $15+ million of dead money on our payroll.
Assuming good health, he’ll be worth the contract he’s been given. That is a tough thing to assume, though.
If there is any quibble I have, is I’d preferred a 4 year deal max, but what can you do, I suppose.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
I heard the good newJV reached the 80m for at least 5yrs…good job everyone in the tigers organization keep it up.. this is huge JV!
by '' spiderman '' on Feb 3, 2010 11:52 PM EST reply actions
I said in an earlier thread
All the Tigers’ moves had to be viewed through the prism of how they affected their chances of keeping Verlander. With JV and Miggy, the rest of a retooled, competitive team can fall into place. I’m so glad they got this done and Justin will be glaring in to get the signs while wearing the Old English D for the next several years.
now tigers need to sign Johnny Damon [quicky]!about ~5 0r 6m for 1 yrs!
by '' spiderman '' on Feb 3, 2010 11:58 PM EST reply actions
I don't mean to be rude...
but could you please use the “reply” button?
You make good points but your comments end up all over the place and end up hard to contextualize with the rest of the discussion.
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kinda OT...
but it more or less speaks to JV’s awesomeness….but all my Fanposts on pitching mechanics and player breakdowns reference Justin Verlander and 2 of them have been specifically about Verlander.
But we really didn’t need further proof that JV was awesome, did we?
My Music: Now on last.fm!!
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First thing I thought of
when I heard this was your analysis and how it showed how absolutely beautiful his mechanics are. He is a joy to watch, and I’m sooooooo happy we get to watch him with that Olde English D on his chest for five more years.
sue me, freedom of speech, my 5th 0r 1st !
by '' spiderman '' on Feb 4, 2010 12:04 AM EST reply actions
this is a private web site of which you are a guest
but I agree with Poopz, I won’t go off topic here
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 4, 2010 6:37 AM EST up reply actions
yuo used the reply button if you must for me, directness, my preference!, not to be rude!
by '' spiderman '' on Feb 4, 2010 12:10 AM EST reply actions
you have fun with that.
mean while whatever you have to say will be lost because nobody will know what comment you are replying to.
and I’m done with this conversation. I don’t want to go too far off topic here.
My Music: Now on last.fm!!
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
Awesome deal
What started in 2006 will run until …… We should get at least 9 years of Verlander. He’s the true face of this franchise.
"He’s the true face of this franchise . . ."
. . . Apparently the franchise has a goatee . . . :)
by rea on Feb 4, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm disappointed
that “ecstatic” is currently ahead of “bacon!” in the poll. have you guys not been eating your rally bacon? come on!
Rally Bacon!
sacrifice a pig if we lose, eat rally bacon if we win… the cycle is both vicious and delicious. what a god-awful yet interesting twist to having a 4th of July BYB BBQ.
2010 is Year 4707 in the Chinese Calendar - The Year Of The Tiger
by TigerFanInCleveland on Feb 4, 2010 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
Bacon
Bless You Boys: Where vegetarians need not apply?
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anyone can hang out
but the importance of rally bacon was proven time and time again last season. until they lost game 163, anyway
I did my part
Voted for the Rally Bacon!
This is actually the first time all offseason that I have started looking forward to the year. I still don’t think the team will be all that great, but they won’t suck scummy pond water at least (I hope!).
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
Rotation
is SCARY good and will be for years… so pumped for this season and the next five years. If Verlander makes it to the end of the contract we could have an unprecedented 5 man rotation full of amazing (just think… JV, Porcello, Scherz, Turner, Crosby).
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Great point!
This is a great time to look ahead. What DD still needs to figure out is whether Gerald Laird is the right battery mate for that incredible-looking rotation. Can he call the right game and bring the youngsters along? DD’s got to decide whether the defense is of the caliber that it needs to be as well.
2010 is Year 4707 in the Chinese Calendar - The Year Of The Tiger
by TigerFanInCleveland on Feb 4, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Rick Knapp
What kind of money do we have to throw around to make sure Rick Knapp stays the pitching coach for those years. One year might be a (wait for it) small sample size, but I like what he does and think the need to make sure another team doesn’t poach him.
I root for the Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings and yes, the Lions.
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This is the first time
all offseason that there seems to be pretty universal agreement that the Tigers did something good. It only took until February, but it happened!
I had a secret fear that the Tigers would be out of it at the trade deadline and deal Verlander, Cliff Lee style. Now…not so much.
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