WHY VERLANDER'S DEAL ISN'T AS RISKY

I'm sure that Tiger fans everywhere are excited about the signing of Justin Verlander to a five year, $ 80 million contract (reported by AP), but much of that excitement will be tempered by "but that's awful risky for the Tigers", thinking that JV could go the route of Bonderman, Robertson, or Willis, who received a combined $ 29 million last summer mainly for sitting on the DL.  That trio will receive another $ 34.5 million in 2010, without very high expectations of being productive.   But Verlander's deal is different, and not just because he has been more effective and has no history of arm trouble.....

This deal is less of a risk because the Tigers have only two players, Verlander and Cabrera, that have big fat contracts extending after the 2011 season, when Verlander will be in what would be his first year of free agency, and presumably when his "big money" (as if the 8- 12 mil he'll get in 2010, 2011 are a pittance) kicks in.   In fact, after Verlander's contract goes on the books, the Tigers really won't have another star player scheduled to hit the free market for another few seasons.   Jose Valverde could become a Tiger hero, and he just signed a two year contract, but there aren't really any rising stars coming over the horizon of free agency, probably until Rick Porcello has another five seasons under his belt. 

The Tigers have some $ 67 million coming off the books after the 2010 season, assuming that Magglio Ordonez doesn't log at least 135 starts this summer.  Those expiring contracts belong to Ordonez, Bonderman, Robertson, Willis, Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird, Bobby Seay, and Adam Everett.   Probably not a player in the bunch that the Tigers are thinking that they MUST extend.   Sure, those expiring contracts will leave many vacancies to be filled, but there is more dead weight in their numbers than real value, and Dave Dombrowski will have plenty of payroll flexibility and roster flexibility to mold and shape a new lineup for the Tigers.  Carlos Guillen has another year, as he's signed through 2011.

Dombrowski is not likely to paint himself into the same corner that he found himself this season, with a total of some $ 72 million in "bad" contracts on the books.   I'd consider a contract that no other team would take off your hands, even for nothing, to be a bad contract.   So, even if Verlander goes down with an injury, heaven forbid, the team will have the flexibility to go another direction.   Add the fact that the club continues to focus on starting pitching in the draft, and there are talented starters like Casey Crosby, Andy Oliver, and Jacob Turner on the way up, and the future of the Tiger rotation is looking solid.   Likewise in the bullpen.  There were many good bullpen arms on the farm even before the Granderson trade brought a few more.   There will be lots of vacancies after this summer.   But expect future Tiger lineups to be leaner, speedier, very athletic, and not signed to long term contracts all at the same time.