The impact of Lincecum arbitration on Verlander deal

While many are looking at the impact of Justin Verlander's new 5-year, $80 MM deal on the arbitration case of Tim Lincecum, it seems reasonable to attempt to view this from the other direction as well.  Consider the possibility that Lincecum receives the $13MM record-high arbitration amount he is seeking.  Granted, Lincecum has status as a 2-time Cy Young winner with an ERA far lower than Verlander (non-adjusted, just using basic stats here).   Yet, the threat to the Tigers existed that the result of Lincecum's arbitration hearing could have driven up the price for Verlander even higher than the average $16MM/year that was agreed to.  Note again, that the way contracts of this type are back-loaded the current year salary hit may yet be less than Lincecum's asking price in arbitration.  It also likely exceeds the Giants' offer price of $8MM, making the result of that negotiation and possible hearing all the more relevant to placing a value on Verlander. 

The Tigers may have gotten off easy with this one, because if Tim Lincecum gets his $13MM in arbitration before his long term deal in the next year or two, who knows what his market value could have driven Verlander's up to if the Tigers had waited to get this done. 

Hypothetically, as a result of the price tag being too high for the Tigers to re-sign Verlander in a year, just imagine how angry the fan base would be if the Giants, Tigers and Red Sox pulled off a deal like the one that the Phils, Mariners and Blue Jays just did.  In that hypothetical case, sadly, the Tigers would be the ones getting the prospects in return, and the Giants get a Verlander to replace Lincecum who would go to the Sox.  We should be grateful for the fact that this deal is being done, and Verlander will be here for a long time to anchor this rotation.