Filling up the roster
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 6, 2010 9:46 PM EST
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PrintTigerfest is over and there is nothing left to do but speculate about what will happen between now and ST. So here's me thinking out loud:
I have a hard time believing that Leyland will want to go into the season without a back-up plan at both 2nd and 3rd base. Although I have never seen a report actually connecting the Tigers to Felipe Lopez, something tells me that he will be targeted before spring training. He can play 2nd and 3rd and is a switch-hitter, so he is a perfect fit as a bench player, and he has starting experience so he can be a decent stopgap if Inge isn't ready or if Sizemore flops. Since we all know that Leyland likes to have a 12-man bullpen, one might think that the addition of a guy like Lopez will mean no Damon. But I think the guy who should be worried is Clete Thomas...the signing of Damon would make Clete expendable. With those two signings, here's what I believe will be the 25-man roster:
Outfield: Ordonez, Jackson, Guillen, Damon, Raburn (3 in the outfield, 1 DH, 1 day off)
Infield: Cabrera, Sizemore, Everett, Inge, Lopez, Santiago
Catchers: Laird, Diaz (I get the feeling that unless Avila wins the starting job, he will be in Toledo...the fact that we will have 2 rookies starting already tells me Avila will not be the starter)
Rotation: Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Bonderman, Robertson (if he shows anything in Lakeland, he will have the spot, imo)
Bullpen: Valverde, Perry, Zumaya, Seay, Ni, Coke, Galarraga (I suppose Thomas could replace Ni or Coke, but I think he would have to really blow people away in the spring to do so)
Thoughts?
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I think Diaz makes team.....
….also and Avila starts in AAA as well….I actually think the 5th spot is between Bonderman and Willis.
by BennieBladesFan on Feb 6, 2010 10:04 PM EST reply actions
Who would be
the 4th starter then? Robertson?
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 6, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Where is Zach Minor?
He’ll take Galarraga’s roster spot.
And I also don’t see the need for three lefties in the bullpen. If the Tigers were to add these two bats before the start of the season, I would expect them to save some money by trading Bobby Seay since (1) he makes approx $3 million, and (2) is expendable with the likes of Coke, Ni, Schlereth, etc available and cheaper.
And +1 for Johnny Damon for one year...
See Bobby Abreu and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 2009.
$6 million for one year may not be the challenge that everything thinks since (1) the Tigers "saved" approx $2 million on Verlander’s 2010 salary, and (2) I am assuming that they will trade Booby Seay during spring training for someone’s B-/C+ infielder prospect, "saving" another $3 million from the 2010 payroll, and go forward with Ni, Coke, and Schlereth as the left handed options in the bullpen this year.
If you want something better, than Ryan Rayburn would need to be packages with Seay, but I don’t think there are many people here that would support that move now… and it would be nice to have Rayburn as he has the versatility to fill in for an injury just about anywhere on the field.
Any objections?
Hmm
A marginal 3B prospect for Bobby Seay would be nice. Keep in mind we can’t get a lot for him- he’s a good reliever, but not top-notch.
A couple names: Pedro Baez from the Dodgers (raw, questions about his bat and glove, so he may come cheap), Shawn Bowman from the Mets (good power but no plate discipline) or Zach Lutz (also) from the Mets (good bat, mediocre glove).
Have I mentioned how awesome the Sickles Baseball Prospect Book is yet?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Bowman
sounds like he belongs in our minor league system anyway, so why not?
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 7, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
To be honest
I completely forgot about Minor. I guess he would take the place of one of the lefties, and Seay seems like the most obvious for the reasons you stated. The problem is that I don’t know what team wants to pay that much for a lefty reliever who is not a closer, or really a set-up man. I feel like Coke was brought in to facilitate a Seay trade, I just don’t know who will be willing to give up anything of value for him.
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 7, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
This offense is going to struggle big time but with the starting pitching they might be able to compete, provided the bullpen is at least competent.
Agreed
I think there will be a quite a few 3-2 losses… and 4-3 wins.
Heres hoping that there are more wins than losses.
Like maybe 18 more
90 and 72 would be nice, but it might not be enough to catch the Twins unfortunately.
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I think the offense
has a lot of ifs…if Magglio can continue his tear from last September, if Guillen can stay healthy, if Raburn can repeat last year’s performance, if Sizemore really is ready, and so on. But we don’t need all of the ifs to work out to at least match last year’s offense (I don’t know if you remember, but it’s not like Grandy was that great other than power). The pitching has been improved overall, which will be enough to make a run. If we get a little lucky, we could be in the division race in September. I’d say we can range from 78 – 85 wins on pitching alone.
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 7, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Grandy’s inability to hit southpaws was indeed a big problem but what might be an even bigger problem for the Tigers now is batting against right-handed pitchers. Last year, the Tigers had an OPS of .768 versus left-handers and .740 versus right-handers. Take away Granderson and the 2009 OPS against lefties shoots up to .804. But what about right-handed pitchers which account for about 75% of plate appearances? If you take away Granderson’s .897 OPS versus righties, the Tigers had an OPS of .720 in 2009. That’s not very good.
— Lee Panas wrote that and people keep overlooking it.
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 7, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why
I would like to see Damon and Lopez in the fold…
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 7, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
I'll disagree with your assertion that pitching alone could be worth more than 81 wins
I don’t think the Tigers have the starting depth or enough batting (currently) or positional player depth to absorb the inevitable injury that happens.
Honestly, they probably should be finding a way to get both Damon and Lopez and just say screw it. That would give them the best chance to win.
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 7, 2010 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I’m not so sure that what we have coming up – Ramirez, Wells, Avila, etc. are that much of a drop off from what we have. To me the only position players that are indispensable are Inge, Cabrera, and either Ordonez or Guillen (I think we need one of the them, though both is obviously better). I’m not the stat guy, what kind of WAR would you expect out of everyone else? So, I agree that without any additions we do not have a good enough offense to be a .500+ team, but with someone like Damon and a solid guy like Lopez, I think we will be at worst as good as last year offensively.
As for pitching, I think we have 3 starters that have to make 30+ starts for us to have a chance – Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer. Past them, I think we have enough in Bonderman, Galarraga, Robertson, Bonine, and whoever else shows up to pitch this year to be somewhat effective on the back end of the rotation.
Maybe I’m just a homer, but 78 – 85 with additions on offense, and 75 – 81 without seems reasonable.
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 7, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
Austin Jackson.....
…..Will suprise and will be a key plaer this year….Kind of like A clete thomas with speed.
It is my impression
that Clete has speed…he had a ton of SBs in the minors. He just doesn’t have the green light in Detroit.
by TonyOrlando78 on Feb 7, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'll make the opposite prediction
Jackson will implode, forcing the Tigers to send him to Toledo for the year. Casper Wells will be called up to replace him, and will totally screw over Scott Sizemore as both will be ROY candidates, and Casper will pull enough votes away from Sizemore to force Scott into a second place finish (Wells finishes 5th, with Wade Davis in first, Brian Matsuz in third, and Brett Wallace in fourth).
I’m probably wrong, but if I’m right, I’ll look like a freakin genius.
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by David Tokarz on Feb 7, 2010 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Give me Matusz every day of the week over Wade Davis for the ROY…
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Now I write at Bless You Boys.
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I could see it
But I have a feeling Matsuz is going to get knocked around a little.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Plus
He plays for the Orioles, so his traditional stats (wins, maybe ERA due to defense) will be worse.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Ah, true. Haha, i always forget to think about who the voters are probably going to vote for.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
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