Minor League Matters: Corner Outfield Depth Chart
by David Tokarz on Mar 1, 2010 3:28 PM EST
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(Statline rubric: Plate Appearances, Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, BABIP, K/BB)
MLB
Johnny Damon- LF- 36 years old
2009 (MLB): 626 PA .282/.365/.489, .305 BABIP, 98/71 K/BB
I won't spend much time on the trio of corner OF's on the MLB roster- there's no point and it distracts from the prospects. Damon is a decent defender, good source of OBP (with a good deal coming from contact). He can take a base, hit for some power and is a very good player for his salary.
Magglio Ordonez- RF- 36 years old
2009 (MLB): 518 PA, .310/.376/.428, .344 BABIP, 65/51 K/BB
Hits for average and OBP, has lost the ability to hit for power, can't field. The Eighteen-Million Dollar Man will not be worth Eighteen Million Dollars. Also, expect Clete Thomas to play defensive caddy all year.
Carlos Guillen- LF- 34 years old
2009 (MLB): 332 PA, .242/.339/.419, .263 BABIP, 56/39 K/BB
He's the baby of the corner OF rotation. That doesn't say too much. Guillen has had a few pages added to his injury list in the last two seasons, and even though he can hit pretty well when healthy, he won't stay healthy.
AAA/AA
Jeff Frazier- RF- 27 years old
2009 (AAA): 429 PA .308/.336/.456, .330 BABIP, 49/20 K/BB
2009 (AA): 96 PA, .322/.375/.471, .370 BABIP, 13/7 K/BB
Frazier is a decent OF for Toledo or Erie. He is not, however, a major league caliber player. Average defensively, with a line drive stroke (21% at both AA and AAA last year), he can hit for average but doesn't walk too much, nor does he hit for much power. He also doesn't steal bases. Frazier's future is as an emergency player or AAA organizational fodder.
Wilkin Ramirez- LF- 24 years old
2009 (AAA): .258/.326/.445, .347 BABIP, 143/41 K/BB
Wilkin is an incredibly frustrating player. Toolsy as Home Depot, Ramirez has all the potential in the world- Baseball America says he has the ability to be a 25-25 player (homers and steals) as well as the swing to hit .300. He's poor defensively right now, but still learning how to run routes in the corners. Ramirez's biggest problem is that he has the plate discipline of... well, a Tigers prospect. Ramirez needs refinement, desperately. His problem is aggression- he seems to think that swinging at everything and beating the hell out of the ball whenever possible is a good option. Ramirez needs to calm down and work on translating his tools into production. Can he do it? Certainly- even with the poor discipline, he could hit .300/.350/.500... but that's a big if. A year in Toledo is a must, and if Bull Durham can settle him down at the plate, we may have a good player on our hands.
Deik Scram- RF- 26 years old
2009 (AA): 514 PA, .253/.339/.478, .304 BABIP, 120/62 K/BB
He's fast- even though he only stole 9 bases. He's a good defender- for a corner OF'er. He has good power and patience- but a lack of contact ability. Scram is also 26. The organization doesn't seem to think too much of him- he repeated this year in AA Erie, and a 26 year old repeating AA is not exactly prime prospect material.
Brennan Boesch- RF- 24 years old
2009 (AA): 569 PA, .276/.318/.512, .316 BABIP, 127/33 K/BB
Boesch can bash. Now that we've gotten the bad pun out of the way, it's time to evaluate this favorite of the Tigers organization. Kid can hit moonshots- his power is some of the best in the system. Baseball America, however, is skeptical, and worries that Erie inflated his power numbers. His swing is long and stiff- which doesn't bode well for hitting for contact, something Boesch has a problem with. He also needs to walk more. I'm skeptical of Boesch's ability to produce anything other than home runs, and I would like to see him repeat the power display in Toledo next year. Boesch may become the 2011 version of Marcus Thames, but it's tough to see him doing more than that.
A+/A/SS
Kody Kaiser- RF- 24 years old
2009 (A+): 193 PA, .267/.363/.461, 371 BABIP, 55/23 K/BB
Kody Kaiser has superficially good numbers weighted down by not only a subpar sample in 200 PA but a high BABIP, which indicates regression on an already poor batting average. It's a shame, too. Kaiser has a lot of tools- he can swipe a bag (29 last year at West Michigan and 9 this year), can hit for some power and can actually take a walk. His undoing is the strikeout- the same problem that every other player in this system seems to have. He's also old for his level, which indicates that some of his performance could be him merely picking on younger pitchers. An exciting player to watch if you happen to be in Lakeland (or Erie if he by some chance gets promoted), but somebody we won't be seeing in the majors anytime soon.
Josh Workman- LF- 24 years old
2009 (A+): 183 PA, .297/.372/.380, .387 BABIP, 38/20 K/BB
Workman is a left fielder that is old for his level, hits for no power, struck out in 20% of his plate appearances and has an unsustainable batting average. The good news: he can take a walk. The bad: he can't do much else. Workman is most likely organizational fodder. Shame you can't transplant his batting eye into Wilkin Ramirez though...
Avisail Garcia- RF- 18 years old
2009 (A): 314 PA .264/.290/.324, .342 BABI, 70/8 K/BB
Do you see that line above? Disregard it. All of it. Garcia put those numbers up against 22 year olds, with 4 more years of physical development and experience. This isn't to say that Garcia is the best thing this system has to offer, but he's got great upside. He's got great speed and good raw power- combine that with a quick swing and you can see why Baseball America rated him #17 on their Tigers Top 30. The key here will be refinement in all aspects of his game. Don't be surprised if you hear of Garcia in a top 100 list... or if you never hear of him again. But hey, at least he's interesting.
Brent Wyatt- LF- 25 years old
2009 (A): 576 PA, .242/.356/.335, .279 BABIP, 71/67 K/BB
A punchless left fielder who is old for his level. Strikes one and two there. He's fast- 24 SB to his credit- and has plate discipline and contact skills to some degree (he got unlucky on balls in play), but corner outfielders generally have to hit for power in order to make it. Wyatt probably won't. Shame that all the patient ones land up floundering.
Billy Nowlin- LF- 23 years old
2009 (A): 480 PA, .311/.390/.483, .346 BABIP, 67/37 K/BB
Nowlin can rake- he put up an 875 OPS in A ball. While he's a little old for the league, he shows great power, passable plate discipline (which for this system is borderline miraculous) and decent contact skills. The problem is that he fields like a mailbox. He's a DH if he goes anywhere. The bat is interesting, though, and if he could play LF, he'd probably move a lot faster.
Alexis Espinoza- RF- 21 years old
2009 (SS) .250/.322/.400, .344 BABIP, 64/14 K/BB
Espinoza is a toolsy RF, with decent speed and great power. Unfortunately, that power hasn't translated to the American leagues- he hit bombs in the VSL, but not in the US. It's a shame- Espinoza is an interesting player, but at 21 and still in SS ball, he has a long way to go and he needs to take a definitive step forward else he be passed up by new draftees. There is upside here, which is more than you can say about some of the guys on this list.
Steven Moya- LF- 18 years old
Moya played in the GCL in 2009, and so I won't post his numbers (they're meaningless, but if you want to go look, First Inning is the place). He's toolsy, he can apparently take a walk (!!!) and... well, there's not much more on him. Not that there's much to talk about at this point anyways. Matt Wallace over at Take 75 North seems to believe he'll be coming to the US this year, so he's on the Avisail Garcia fast track. Hopefully he'll make himself known and will give us something to talk about this year.
Final Thoughts
Ugh. Some toolsy players in Wilkin Ramirez, Avisail Garcia and Steven Moya, but there's a lot of garbage here. It's a shame too- there's plenty of space in Detroit for some decent corner OF'ers. The Tigers really need Ryan Streiby to be able to field well enough to play left, or they're going to have to spend some serious money to bring the outfield corners up to snuff.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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This really is troubling
because truly unless some prospects switch positions or Wilkin starts to play like the 5-tool player he is, we have the look of a team that will continue to struggle to field respectable corner outfielders for the next 5 years without overpaying them (DAMON/MAGGS/GUILLEN). Clete may be the answer in one of the spots if Jackson pans out in CF, and Raburn even has some good tools and bat, but true corner OF’s seem to have fallen into the strikeout abyss that haunts our farm system
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on Mar 1, 2010 11:00 AM EST reply actions
I'm hoping that Wells can pan out
I still have some hope for Wilkin, too, but your point is well taken and agreed with.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 1, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
I dont see anythign wrong with.....
….Wilkins game…..great speed great bad great instincts…..Maybe his defese is average….guess I dont see why people are so down on him…..i will admit I havent seen him play 130 games a season at the mior league level but what ive seen of his game I really really like.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 1, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Wilkin doesn't make contact often enough
to make it in the majors. He does kill lefties, so he has some pitch recognition skills, but he struggles with off speed stuff, is a real sucker for anything that has late sink on it, and he hasn’t really improved his contact rate during his pro career as he advances in the organization. If there is a club that would trade for him based on near his potential, I’d be selling.
Those K rates are really troubling across the board among Tiger prospects. Strieby, to me, is the one that has the best chance to break through, and he needs to convert from 1B to the OF. That’s probably an easier task than increasing the contact rate for a Boesch or Wilkin Ramirez.
I'm a little less pessimistic than you
I still think Ramirez has a chance- he just needs to improve his game a little more.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
A chance, yes
Of course, I would not give up on Wilkin just yet.
But I generally believe that players that can cut their K rates and increase their BB rates as they adjust at each new level, are the players that tend to be able to make it in MLB as they face stiffer competition. What is concerning about Wilkin is that his K/ BB rate isn’t improving as he advances. This is also the reason that I like Sizemore’s chances of adapting a bit better than AJax, even though Jackson has the better skill set and bigger upside. It’s also why I like a player like Jeff Larish, who has hit and improved at every level that he’s played. I think he will eventually hit in the majors as well, but he has to be given the patience to let him work things out. That’s tough to do when you’re in a pennant race, and when his only position is first base.
Oh and also....
….Vlad Guerroero swings at everything and he turned out to be a pretty good ball plaer dont ya think?
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 1, 2010 12:03 PM EST reply actions
Ah, Vladi
Another player that can’t serve as a comparable- like ever. Vladi is otherworldly at contact, and for that matter, hitting. He doesn’t have to be able to take walks- in his prime he could hit .330. He also didn’t strike out as much as Wilkin does, and he takes just as many if not more walks.
Wilkin is a streaky player that has major issues at making contact. He may be fast and powerful and have all these abilities, but he can’t execute them consistently. That’s the problem- even with a little more consistency, he’d be a great player.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 1, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
his biggest drawback is his biggest asset
his potential. For as long as he plays, people will see his amazing arsenal of tools and wonder why he “only” made it to the majors as a power-hitting of with good speed, limited contact and limited defensive abilities. For most prospects this would be fine, but for a player like Wilkin, who is “only” consistency away from being a rather productive player for a long time, this will not do. Take it however you will.
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on Mar 1, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Casper Wells and Clete Thomas
are future corner fielders in my humble opinion.
If you place them on the list, then (along with Raburn)
we’re ok.
Meh
That’s only if Wells and Thomas pan out as starters. And Raburn is 29- so he’s in his prime.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
I just want to say that I would kill for just one – just one – single draft where the Tigers take a ton of “boring” polished college hitters with high floors and ‘low’ ceilings.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
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2008 was the year to do it. Loaded with college bats. I hate thinking that Reese Havens went one pick after Ryan Perry. Or Allan Dykstra. Or Conor Gillaspie (this is the one that bugs me the absolute most. Dude was crushing the ball at Wichita State).
Add in other guys with “flaws” like Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, Sawyer Carroll, and it is frustrating. I know DD likes his “toolsy” players, but I’d love to just stock up on ‘safe’ picks for once.
No surprise that a team that employs Paul DePodesta picked up 4 of the guys I listed above.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Dykstra?
He was supposedly a metal-bat swing guy, and he’s really passive right now for San Diego.
I’d like a solid college hitter, don’t get me wrong. But I’d prefer a guy like Kyle Seager- taken in the third round last year. Probably will end up as a utility guy, but he provides some system stability.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
He’s been hurt. At the time of the draft, or right after wards, I believe a hip condition of his came out publicly. Might be a back, can’t remember.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
It's a birth defect
And it’s his hip. The problem is that, since it’s a birth defect, it’s not going away. That hinders his development. Also, he’s isolated to first base- he can’t really play anything else, so he doesn’t fit well with the Tigers.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Well you don’t draft on positional need, though. So Dykstra being blocked by Miggs isn’t entering into the thought process. When he’s ready (this is a hypothetical ‘he’) you either move him to another position or another team.
I forgot that it was a birth defect.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
That was Grant Green last year
I like Turner, don’t get me wrong. But man, I wanted Grant Green.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
No. Green's stock was falling.
Happy with Turner. Green would have been a solid mid to late round pick in the 1st round.
Although I would have liked Tyler Matzek more… Seriously, a hard-throwing lefty? With command? And secodary pitched? One of the top prep arms of 2009? Awesome! Wait… Must stop thinking of that…
by DetroitTigersGeek on Mar 1, 2010 5:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Green's stock was falling
But he was still a very good shortstop prospect with a very high floor. The only thing he disappointed on was power potential. I ran the Tigers draft last year at Minor League Ball and picked him- I felt that the community was underrating a very good ballplayer.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
True that.
He was very underrated, and the Tigers need more position players (MAKE 2010 A POSITION PLAYER DRAFT!! THERE ARE GOOD ONES OUT THERE!!) caps lock off
However, you can’t draft for need, you draft for talent. I guess the FO thought that Turner would give them the most bang for their buck. It’s in the past and really off topic, sooooo sorry…
Anyway, I really enjoy these depth analysis of the system!
by DetroitTigersGeek on Mar 1, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
His stock was falling in the early spring. Once late spring (may-ish) came about, his game was picking up.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
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i'm ok with taking Turner (or Matzek)
if they were off the board I’d probably have really disliked not taking Green. But since it wasn’t the case I’m not too bothered.
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 1, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
I like the Turner pick
much more than Perry. JT is a few years away, but from all reports, he’s a winner and when he does arrive, he’ll be the real deal. A kid that can help the rotation out quite a bit.
The Tigers front office needs to wake up
And realize that power arms, especially specialist arms, can only get you so far. From the overviews on Tiger depth the cupboard for position players is bare to dire with only a few possibilities in sight and that is irresponsible.
Moya in DSL
I’m enjoying this series, DDBB, and thanks for the link. Anyone who follows will find my opinion on Moya (who was in the DSL last season) is based on him playing in the Instructional League. I’m pretty sure SOP is players invited to that stay in the States with few exceptions.
I have hopes
For Casper Wells. Sure he’s not that big, but the power is definitely there. I could see him possibly being ready if we need him in 2011. Especially if Damon doesn’t come back.
A lifelong Tigers fan
Bad instructing?
Why can’t this system develop hitters who are patient and take walks? Is it the kids we draft (swing for the fences) or do we have shitty hitting instructors throughout the system?
I really hope 2010 turns out to be the opposite of 2008 in terms of the draft, all hitters!
Part instructing
But part of this starts on draft day at the table with DD and David Chadd. Upside is great, but a little more boring (low ceiling college bats) would be nice.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
I’m a bit different from DDB above, but I think it’s a lot to do with the philosophy on Draft Day and a little to do with coaching. I believe that things like plate discipline can improve, but it’s very marginal. So if a kid doesn’t “get it” at a young age, the odds of him being an average player in terms of walks aren’t good.
Much like how scouts believe that if a kid can’t flash a plus curveball on his draft day, he never will be able to and is better off moving to a slider.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
I generally agree, Mike
but it’s a complex subject. The scouts love to talk about “tools” and “skills” and “upside”. We draft guys like a Maybin or Wilkin Ramrez, with speed, power, and they hit for average where they’re at. But start throwing them curve balls, and their K rates skyrocket, their BB rates plummet, and all of a sudden you have a “toolsy” prospect with a bunch of “if’s” in his scouting reports as he toils in the minors and disappears off the BA prospect list. Clubs don’t want to give up on these players because of that huge “upside”. Every club wants players that can do it all.
I think that the red flags are there fairly early on. How often do we see a player’s K rate drop, and his OBP and BB rates climb as he progresses through the system? A more likely pattern is that of a Sizemore or a Larish- who show that they can hit and get on base at every level. In the case of Larish, you just have to give him time at the next level. (Not a problem until he’s on a major league team that’s trying to contend).
I look at Brennan Boesch, and there’s a lot to like. Lots of power, okay average, can play two corner OF spots. But that K rate climbs with each promotion, and not a whole lot of BB’s along the way. I wonder how he’ll do when he has to face major league stuff. Wells- 100+ K’s a year among some nice stats and ability to play three OF spots. Ramirez 143 K’s, 149 the previous year. I don’t think you fix that so easily. Same with Strieby’s K rate, although he shows better ability to get on base.
Bottom line- give me a player who gets on base and shows at least some modest power to all fields. He’s more likely to develop power as he grows than the guy that struggles with plate discipline every time he’s moved up is likely to cut his K rate and become a better contact hitter.
I think you're counting out Magglio
too soon. that is all.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
by Detroitchik on Mar 1, 2010 7:47 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
A good year for Maggs
would be .320/ .375/ .475 with 15 homers and 80 plus RBI.
I think he’ll hit for average, but his home run power isn’t coming back. He needs to drive more balls into the gaps than he did last year, and the RBI totals will increase. 50 RBI isn’t gonna cut it.
Nice work.
I enjoy these depth charts a lot. I wonder how many Tigers on the major league roster struggled in the minors before making it to the big show.
Baseball Geek
by StorminNormanCash on Mar 1, 2010 9:14 PM EST reply actions
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