Morning prowl: Jurrjens redux
by BigAl on Mar 24, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintAt the Detroit News, Lynn Henning picks at a scab which won't go away...the trade of Jair Jurrjens.
It is all but ancient history. Except that it remains just fresh enough, just painful enough for Tigers fans, to remind them every time Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta how valuable he would be to the Tigers if he were still with his original team.
The Tigers are strapped for starters as spring camp winds down. They have no assurances at the No. 4 and 5 spots in their rotation.
Jurrjens, who went to the Braves in an October, 2007, trade for Edgar Renteria, is one of the best right-handers in the National League.
As always, hindsight is 20/20. A very painful 20/20.
We don't need Henning reminding us it was a disasterous trade.
We already know Jurrjens would look great on the Tigers' pitching staff, and would have made a formidable top of the rotation that much better. We know Edgar Renteria was a bit of a risk due to his age and lack of success in the AL with the Redsox, and was a massive disappointment as a Tiger. We know the trade ended up a massive failure, by far the worst of Dave Dombrowski's tenure.
We know, we know, we know.
Well, so do the Tigers.
They realize it everyday when they see Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis struggling to nail down a spot in the 2010 rotation.
But I'm sure, as an organization, the Tigers have moved on. As should we.
Personally, I hate living in the past, thinking about "what might have been." It's not good for anyone, especially a sports franchise. (Trust me, I see it all the time when I write about the Lions. It's always "Woulda, coulda, shoulda." 50 years of suck does that to a fanbase.)
But ignoring my own advice, I'm going to look back.
After thinking about the deal, one thing has become obvious. For the current generation of fans, and those from here on out, the Jurrjens trade may end up being the equivalent the John Smoltz deal was for previous generations. And believe me, the Smotz trade has long been the go-to topic for any Tigers fan who doesn't like to trade prospects.
The thing is, as bad as the Smoltz deal turned out in the long run, the Jurrjens trade is far worse.
At least the Tigers got a division title out of the Smoltz trade, so it wasn't near as one-sided as some would make it out to be. They got jack and squat (which is what I consider the iffy defense and .313 OBP the Tigers got out of Renteria) for Jurrjens. That's as one-sided as it gets.
By the way, it's revisionist history if anyone tells you Smoltz was a big-time prospect. He wasn't. At the time, there was absolutely no outcry over the deal...a deal which accomplished exactly what it was supposed to do. Send the Tigers to the playoffs.
Which is why I'd do the Smoltz trade, considering what was known at the time, 1000 times out of a 1000. Hell, make it a million out of a million.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, the the Jurrjens trade only had to happen once. Expect to be reminded of it whenever the starting pitching struggles.
With that off my chest...how about a few links? After the jump, of course.
It's going to be a slow day of Tigers news, as they have a rare day off. Here's a few links to peruse to keep your withdrawal symptoms at bay.
Good news! Mike McClary's "The Detroit Tigers Podcast" has returned after a long hiatus, and can be downloaded at The Daily Fungo. There's also a co-host now, it's some dude who used to hang around these parts. Goes by the name of Ian, I believe...
At Roar of the Tigers, Samara shows us exactly what is wrong with Bobby Seay's shoulder. There's some sort of reptile head coming out of it!
Want to know what giveaways the Tigers have planned for the coming season? Paul has you covered at Eye of the Tigers. Personally, I have my eye on an Olde English D wearing Charlie Brown bobblehead!
Over at Tiger Geist, John gives us some quick thoughts on his spring training trip to Lakeland, with much more to come. What John didn't mention was running into Cowboys owner Jerry Jones carrying on about NFL business in a hotel bathroom. (Seriously!) For some reason, I just can't see Mike Ilitch yelling "we're really close on a revenue sharing deal" in a public rest room.
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Darn few people
. . . predicted that Jurrjens would turn out as well as he has.
I did.
and I was very very very very very very very very upset when this trade happened.
and I still am.
And yes I know that we probably still lose him in the Cabrera trade but A) the answer is "probably and not “for sure” and B) At least we would’ve gotten Miggy for him and minor leaguers that I haven’t head of since instead of just getting Renteria.
So yes, this is a scar I do not like to bear.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
I also
was high on Jurrjens (wow, that sounds awful) at the time this trade happens, and I was wary about bringing Renteria back to the AL after his bad year with the Red Sox. I agree that Jurrjens could have been traded in the Cabrera deal. If he goes, do we keep Andrew Miller? Or another prospect or two? If he stays in Detroit at that point, do they make the Edwin Jackson trade last year? Without the Jackson trade, do we trade Granderson? What about Armando Galarraga? Is he still wasting away in Texas’ farm system if Jurrjens is here? There’s way too many things that go into this to be completely sure. We don’t even know if Jurrjens would have developed in our system. Maybe it’s that crazy pitching water they have down in Atlanta that turns regular prospects into the John Smoltz we know today.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm also agreeing that he would have been traded to Florida
I also wonder how much being in the NL has to do with it. I don’t know his Interleague numbers, but I know that after a couple good starts with the Tigers, he was starting to get hit fairly hard. And as you say, we don’t know how much the coaching staffs and/or trainers played a factor.
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 24, 2010 9:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Jurrjens did nothing to doubt his success
He was successful in the minors when coming through the system and he was successful for the Tigers in the majors. There was no reason to believe that a healthy Jurrjens would not continue to develop. However, I remember there being health doubts about him at the end of his Tigers tenure. Hopefully, the Sherzer health doubts pan out as well as the Jurrjens doubts.
And Jurrjens is battling a shoulder injury right now, although it's not major
And the NL certainly does help, but I agree that Jurrjens was on track to be successful, either way, but not this successful.
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Seriously?
I’d never heard of him when he got called up, and I don’t think many others had, either—he was not a much-hyped prsepct like Verlander, Procello, or Turner. He’d had only 12 games as the AA level when the Tigers called him up and presed him into service as an emergency starter. He’d performed surprisingly well in that role considering the circumstances before getting hurt, but didn’t look all that dominating. My opinion at the time was that he might turn out to be decent, but that we didn’t have lot of data, and he also seemed fragile.
I guess I should clarify...
I really hadn’t heard of him before he got the call. But after seeing him pitch up here I knew he had what it takes to be real good.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
+1
His upside at the time was #3 starter. Oops.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
BA had him as the organization’s #4 prospect, and highest ranked pitcher (non-Andrew Miller Division) in 2007. Also, the farm system was ranked pretty highly that year, as it was pre-Cabrera trade.
Living in the past
is an argument for never making any trade, ever.
ok Henning...
Do not pick this scab with me. I miss my JJ.
I now officially do not like you as well.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
Doesnt Matter...
….he would have been part of the Cabrera trade anyway the next offseason.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 24, 2010 9:30 AM EDT reply actions
Jurrjens is a very nice pitcher and a potential All Name Team member...
I think everyone liked what they saw in his brief MLB run as a rookie. But he probably won’t be a long term top-of-the-rotation guy. I think he’s a very solid #3 if he stays healthy. His strikeouts went up last year, so that was good. But right now he has potential shoulder issues, and I think he did at the end of last year too. “One of the best right handers in the national league” is a touch of a stretch, as much as I love the guy.
We all know now it was a bad trade and many of us – myself included – were huge Jair fans at the time. But I don’t think this guy is going to be John Smoltz over his career. He sure would look good in the middle of the rotation right now though.
I need to find some video of this guy pitch...
so I can see how much injury risk there is. Might help me move on.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
This one's going out to you, Jair
If you could read my mind, love,
What a tale my thoughts could tell.
Just like an old time movie,
‘Bout a ghost from a wishing well.
In a castle dark or a fortress strong.
With chains upon my feet.
But stories always end,
And if you read between the lines,
You’ll know that I’m just tryin’ to understand
The feelin’s that you lack.
I never thought I could feel this way
And I’ve got to say that I just don’t get it.
I don’t know where we went wrong,
But the feelin’s gone
And I just can’t get it back…
It’s okay, he’s gone. We’ve got to move on. We’re with Rick and Max now. I know it’s hard. I know. But Jair’s moved on, he’s happy. We owe happiness to ourselves! We’re worth it!
I thought Jurrjens was a good prospect. At the time of the trade he had little chance at cracking our rotation during the 2008 season. At the time we had -
1) Verlander
2) Bonderman
3) Rogers
4) Robertson
5) Andrew Miller / Chad Durbin
Jurrjens had some trade value, so shopping DD went.
Then we buttoned up our pitching staff quite nicely when we added Dontrelle Wills. Durbin started 19 games for us in 2007. Letting him leave for nothing was another unseen mistake DD made that off-season.
Nobody could of predicted the unfortunate luck we had with the entire pitching staff . Even Verlander turned to a pile of garbage. Many blame Chuck Hernandez, but I think the Mitchell Report was significant. IMO, some our players came crashing down in a hurry, then they ended up with some of the oddest problems imaginable.
Can you imagine...
if the Tigers had that rotation heading into this season? Cringing four games out of five would not be good for the heart.
Matt Millen's MMA Promoter
This is nothing
try watching the Lions. THAT’S bad for the heart.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Evidence-free
I think the Mitchell Report was significant. IMO, some our players came crashing down in a hurry, then they ended up with some of the oddest problems imaginable.
You’re basically accusing Bonderman and Roberston of having been on steroids, and maybe Rogers, too. You haven’t a shred of evidence to support you. We know what caused the physical problems of those three, and it was not steroids. Steroids don’t give you thoracic outlet problems, or grow tumors in your elbow, and certainly don’t make you age into your mid-40’s.
And they don't mess with your control
Like Verlander’s suffered.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
withdrawal might
Rogers has been widely accused…I’m not sure anyone in MLB deserves the benefit of the doubt; linuxit is just pointing out the circumstances. He’s hardly defaming anyone and your claim to “know what CAUSED” the problems is just as unsupported.
Rogers
your claim to "know what CAUSED" the problems is just as unsupported.
His thoracic outlet problems are well-documented (Rogers had them, as well as Bonderman). If you know what a thoracic outlet syndrome is, you know that steroids can’t cause it.
There's no proof that it isn't
compression of the thoracic outlet region could be caused by the unnatural muscular hypertrophy that steroids provide. Though Rogers and Bonderman are clean (according to their medical history), there’s no reason to automatically discredit steroids as a possible cause for TOS for others in the future.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
There's no proof that it is, either
And when you’re making an unsubstantiated claim based on what might happen theoretically, you don’t provide that proof.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Not accusing him of anything
but don’t rule out a connection between thoracic outlet problems and steroids. I don’t think Bondo’s juicing, but based on the physiological effects steroids have on the body, that kind of medical issue is not out of the question.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That still came off as accusing
I meant it in a more general sense.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
From what I know, the pitching motion itself causes an increased risk in developing thoracic outlet syndrome
After scouring PubMed for about 10 minutes, I haven’t found any evidence to suggest that steroid abuse exacerbates the risk, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t. I did find one case study of someone who developed deep vein thrombosis after receiving injections of testosterone and nandrolone, but this person was receiving the steroids for therapeutic reasons. The most common adverse effects seen from steroid abuse are liver damage, cholesterol problems (which may lead to coronary artery disease if it goes unchecked), and atrophy of the sex organs (in men). There’s also evidence to suggest that steroid abuse can cause heart deformations as well.
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 24, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Just in general
the amount of hypertrophy that goes on in the muscles isn’t good for the body and could have harmful effects on other organs, glands, etc. I doubt there would be a study or anything about it yet, the whole steroid phenomenon is still pretty new in the research world.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody says, though . . .
. . . that steroids can alter the bone structure of your rib cage.
It's not about bone structure
thoracic outlet syndrome is caused by the compression of the blood vessels and nerves that pass through that region. It can be caused by movement of those bones or compression from other tissues (i.e. enlarged muscles) in the region.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
In Bonderman's case . . .
. . . at least, it was clearly bones and not muscles, since they removed a rib to cure it.
The removal of the rib was a cure for a problem with the blood vessels and nerves...
Based upon the very nature of TOS, I have to agree with handsomerob.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
I never said Steroids or HGH
Many of the legal dietary supplements on the shelf at GNC will cause your body to crash when you get off them, even Vitamin B12.
What a coincidence then
How could all 5 of them come down with such odd problems at the exact same time?
It wasn't just our pitchers, Renteria got real old real fast.
Here he was coming off of a career year and his trade value was at it’s highest. Then he turned into a turd.
When we got him, I thought he might drive in 100 runs batting behind Polanco, Sheff, Ordonez, and Guillen. Then we added Cabrera to the mix also. Most people thought we should of scored 1000 runs that year.
Every player on our Opening Day roster disappointed us.
Part of Renteria's problems
had to stem from being in the AL. He struggled in Boston the year before that career year in Atlanta.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 24, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Odd?
Verlander had control issues. Bonderman had a birth defect. Robertson got hurt. Rogers was like 74. Miller was a rushed prospect.
A. You underestimate how prevalent pitcher injuries actually are. Pitching is unnatural- people get hurt, minor mechanical flaws screw things up.
B. Pitcher development takes time. We got lucky with Porcello. Miller was a wash because he didn’t have secondary stuff.
C. We were overrated going into 2008 anyways. That rotation was really a pair of good young pitchers that had yet to take the step to acedom (Verlander/Bondo), an innings eater (Robertson), grandpa (Rogers) and a rushed prospect. No wonder it didn’t do well.
D. There is no evidence to accuse these guys of steroid usage other than your desire to explain things in one neat package. Accusing them is damned near to slander, and it’s offensive without evidence. And performance drops that can be explained by other things are not evidence.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The 2008 Tigers had several issues
Among them was a complete inability to score runs if they didn’t knock the ball outta the park. Granderson took a pitch from Tyler Yates in an exhibition game that put him out six weeks, and it was all down hill from there. The bullpen was poor in 2007, and DD did nothing to fix it the following winter. The rotation was packed with problems. Inge was squealing about playing time, as Leyland predicted he would. Pudge tanked. Rogers tanked. We had no ACE on the mound. Galarraga was our best starting pitcher fer krissakes. Hopefully, DD learned that a lineup full of sluggers ain’t the way to go.
I know we rarely agree
But you’re damn right here.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Not only that . . .
. . . but by 2008, testing for steroids had been in place a couple of years.
Here's the quote
I think the Mitchell Report was significant. IMO, some our players came crashing down in a hurry, then they ended up with some of the oddest problems imaginable.
Either a) you’re making veiled accusations or b) you’re not phrasing things right.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not the one who wrote the Mitchell Report
Wish I did though. I think he got paid $20 Million for writing it.
We had several players crash and burn that season after the report was published. Why? You can make whatever assumptions you want.
There has also been a list floating around on the internet for the past year with players that supposedly failed drug tests in 2003. A few of the Tigers on that list are Kenny Rogers, Craig Monroe, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, Dmitri Young, Alex Sanchez, Juan Gonzalez.
I didn’t write that list either.
pretty much any mention of players and the Mitchell report...
generally leaves anyone to conclude an accusation of some sort.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
The Guillen-Cabrera position swapping didn't help either.
Overall defense for the 2008 Tigers was atrocious.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Even as I type these words . . .
. . . someone in China is dying of cancer. Isn’t that a coincidence?
(The point is, 5 unrelated events happening simultaneously isn’t particualrly remarkable—after all, something had to happen).
I REJECT THE NOTION THAT THE SMOLTZ TRADE WAS BAD
Doyle Alexander wen 9 0 as a Tiger and that directly led to the Tigers making the playoffs.
The great comeback of 1987 was one of the greatest events in my fifty years as a Tiger fan. 3 record vs them during the season.
-The Tigers clearly SHOULD have won the World Series in 2007. They had a far, far better record than the Twins during the season and had a 9
- Nobody has any idea whether John Smoltz, an A ball prospect at the time, would ever have even made it to the majors had he stayed in the Tiger organization. It is not a reasonable assumption to believe that he would have made it, without the tutelage of Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone. The probability is that he never gets to the majors as a Tiger.
- Even if Smoltz beat the odds and made it to the majors, the Tigers were beginning a 20 year drought at the time. It can not be forecast that he’d have helped them win any division titles. In all probability, he helps them go from awful to mediocre, worsening their draft position.
Trades have to be judged by the information available at the time the deal is made. Smoltz was toiling away in A ball, not one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. Alexander was a veteran, not one of the best pitchers in the game, but a serviceable starter. It was a BRILLIANT trade, both in terms of the potential for success and for the results.
Now to the Jurrjens trade. Just for the record, the trade was Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria, with the Braves and Red Sox paying some of Edgar’s salary. The Tigers paid 6.6 mil for 2008, and had to buy out his option at 3 mil for 2009. DD blew this trade on both ends. He was quoted as saying that he was “surprised” at Renteria’s lack of range. Why? That’s just bad scouting. Edgar was no better in the field in Atlanta than he was in Detroit. His range was awful, and was right there for all to see. Just as Willis was awful- the worst starter in the league before DD traded for him.
Now for what the Tigers gave up. I said before the deal went down that Jurrjens was my favorite pitching prospect to watch, and Tigstown had him no. 4 overall. I also predicted that DD would trade him, just as he’d trade DeLaCruz, Badenhop, Marte, and any other pitcher that looks promising but isn’t six foot ten with a huge frame. There were concerns about Jurrjens durability, and there still are. He’s missed time this spring with injuries. But he was 20 years old, spoke several languages fluently, knew the strike zone, and threw four pitches for strikes with smarts on the mound well beyond his years.
Gorkys Hernandez was one that I did not mind dealing, although he was later swapped in the deal that brough Nate McLouth to Atlanta, and I like McLouth. The Tigers had Cameron Maybin and Granderson at the time. The Bravos also had several young CF types, but that didn’t stop them.
Chances are, that if the Tigers didn’t trade Jurrjens in the Renteria deal, he’d have been headed to Florida for Cabrera. As it turns out, the six prospects sent to the Marlins in that deal haven’t done very much for them. Remember that the Tigs simply took the Marlins first offer for the six that they got in that trade, rather than blow the chance to make the deal. If they asked for JJ, with DD’s health concerns about him, he’d have been a goner. Maybe we get to keep Badenhop or someone else. Then, maybe we’d be lamenting that trade instead???
You used dashes to start and end things
It’s a common HTML goofup, no biggie.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries
Happens to me a ton too… it’s a pain.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been saying this exact thing for years!
As I said in the post, the Smoltz trade did exactly what it was supposed to do, get the Tigers into the playoffs. People also forget Alexander had a very good year for the Tigers in 1988 as well, making the All-Star team.
The fact Smoltz had a HOF career was a once in a lifetime fluke. No one, not even the Braves, saw it coming.
And a very good point about Jurrjens being part of another deal iif he hadn’t been traded for Renteria. The Tigers obviously felt Jurrjens was expendable, mostly due to his having some arm issues in his past.
But damn, he sure would look good in the Olde English D today.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience and a deputy editor at Bless You Boys.
I wouldn't take back the Smoltz trade.
It accomplished most of what Detroit wanted and Smoltz turned out to be a really good pitcher. I don’t regret the JJ trade because DD was trying to win. You win some, you lose some.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Nobody disputes that DD was trying to win
just as he was when he signed Willis for three years and $ 29 million. But it was a horrible move, and many of us called it at the time. He blew the scouting report on Renteria’s defense, and he undervalued Jurrjens based on the fact that he doesn’t have a huge frame.
Jurrjens has worked out thus far
He wasn’t looking at Edgar’s defense as much as Edgar’s possible offense. 2008 was supposed to be built for bashing with mediocre glove work and suspect pitching.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
That's the thing about Dombrowski, though . . .
. . . if it looks like the team needs to make a deal to win, he’ll make what looks by very conventional standards to be the best deal available. If your team wants to contend and needs a shortstop, trade a couple of prospects for a veteran shortstop who hit .300+ the year before. It’s not a sure thing, but every move’s a roll of the dice, isn’t it?
Except, of course, if he’d looked at Renteria more closely and obejctively, he might have seen it coming.
He did the same thing twice last year. He traded for Washburn, the best era available in a starter, and even better, a lefty. He traded for Huff, a lefty power hitting having a bit of success last year. Those were both real obvious moves for the Tigers to make in theri situation. Both players, however, sucked, for reasons that were quite foreseeable.
Dombrowski’s heart’s in the right place, at least . . .
You actually made a point that I was about to make
In a sense, the two big trades of the 2007 offseason kind of balance out. Jurrjens turned out to be a good pitcher and we didn’t get a whole lot out of Renteria, but at the same time, we’ve got Miguel Cabrera and so far, of the six players the Marlins got, the only one who has given them a reasonable amount of production is Burke Badenhop (Granted, there is still time for Maybin and Miller to pan out). If Jurrjens had gone to Florida and not Atlanta, would there be as much consternation over it?
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 24, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Credit where credit is due . . .
. . . if you’re going to boo Dombroski for misjudging JJ, you have to applaud his accurate judgment of Maybin and Miller
I don't think he guessed right on Maybin and Miller
Nor did most scouts. It’s just that Miguel Cabrera was that good of a player. A franchise type player. But DD refused to deal Maybin and Miller for just Cabrera. Only when they included the worst starting pitcher in the National league did DD make the deal.
What do you base this on?
I’ve read the opposite: that the Marlins wouldn’t make the deal if Dontrelle wasn’t a part of the trade.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Maybin will be a beast
Miller, not so much.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 24, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I hadn’t really thought of the possibility that Jurjenns would’ve gone to Florida if he hadn’t gone to Atlanta. That’s probably a fair point and it doesn’t make me feel slightly better about the situation.
But it doesn’t change the fact that the Renteria one was a deal Dombrowski screwed up royally on. Trading a stud pitching prospect who did nothing but impress during the handfull of starts he made in Detroit for an aging shortstop who never played well in the American League was an amateur move.
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