Quick reaction: Tigers erred in Nate Robertson trade
There is nothing quite like an ill-timed, rushed trade of a bad contract to get my attention during what is easily the worst baseball-related time of the year for me: spring training.
My quick thoughts on the deal are this:
● I understand the hatred of Nate Robertson. I know it feels like he gives up just the one run we can’t afford to give up in a 3-2 loss. Plus, he’s got a huge contract relative to his talents. Unfortunately, I think the truth is in the middle: he’s not as bad as people want to make him out to be. He’s certainly been light years ahead of Dontrelle Willis since we acquired him in the Miguel Cabrera deal. Arguing that is pointless because it’s 100% fact.
● Willis hasn’t pitched well this spring at all. Include his game today, the 3 strikeouts, 4 walks put him now at 13 Ks, 12 BBs and 2 HBPs this spring. This is our 5th starter? While Robertson was at 19 Ks, 7 BBs in 20 innings. I get that if he’s ineffective Detroit can stash him on the DL and collect insurance -- actual dollar amounts unknown. But is the value of getting insurance on a terrible contract enough to off set dumping someone who almost assuredly would be a better pitcher in 2010 for the Tigers – who mind you, have shown they intend to contend this year with the acquisition of Johnny Damon and Jose Valverde – because I don’t think it is.
● By shipping $9.6 million – I will repeat NINE POINT SIX MILLION DOLLARS – to the Marlins so they can have Robertson virtually for free, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is saying that he believe Willis is the safer bet to be the better starting pitcher in 2010. This is, frankly, ludicrous.
● This brings up issues that I’ve had with Dombrowski all along: poor financial management and talent evaluation. I assume Willis’ contract has more to do with why he’s staying over Robertson, but would have have happened if he didn’t have a shiny ERA? Doubtful. This, coupled with the other examples of Dombrowski seeming to rely heavily solely on ERA, is cause enough for me to seriously question how he works. I’m not saying he’s got to run linear regressions on pitchers by hand every other hour, but I feel he’s too wrapped up in metrics that are judging pitchers poorly.
As for the money management, his poor contracts have now pushed out a better player than (1) the one we got back and (2) the one that we kept.
Betting that Willis will be even good enough to stick in the rotation is a poor bet. Every single team has problems at the No. 5 starter (Matthew Carruth had a good piece on Fangraphs a couple weeks ago about how teams secure their top 4 rotation spots and give the remaining starts in the No. 5 spot to a hodge-podge of pitchers), so keeping someone like Robertson around was imperative because, like the other 30 clubs, the Tigers would need him to be a starter since they clearly don’t value Zach Miner as a SP.
Secondly, what has Willis done besides sign his name on a piece of paper to even instill the slightest ounce of confidence in the front office and coaching staff that he can make even 10 starts this year, let alone 20+?
Nothing.
This is a trade that on the surface makes sense – we dealt our most attractive bad contract (even though the Tigers are paying the majority of it) for an A-ball reliever. But, the underlying issues continue to be the main problem of this Front Office’s tenure. Eddie Bonine is not a big league pitcher. He’s a worse pitcher than Robertson. If Bonine and Willis even combine to make 12 starts for this team in 2010 I’ll be shocked and scared about what that means for the state of our club this year.
Now for a look at what we're getting back:
Jay Voss, the big left-hander we got back in the trade failed as a starter in 2008 in the Marlins system at Low-A Greensboro. Since moving into the bullpen during that year, Voss posted some decent numbers. In the pen in 2008 he put up a 25.2% K rate, 8.7% BB rate. Unfortunately I have to estimate his ERA as a reliever as all sites I check have his total line for 2008 at Greensboro, and I get around 4.68. His tRAr, which is a regressed version of a runs allowed simulator that is a better predictor of future success, had him at 4.54 -- which was below average for the level.
In 2009, he started at High-A Jupiter and posted solid numbers in just a limited sample of 14 innings. He struck out 17.2% of the batters he faced while walking 5.2%. When he moved to Double-A Jacksonville, he upped his K% to 24.5%, but his walk rate spiked as well to 10.2%. That's the highest it's been since moving into the bullpen, but it is something worth watching. Guys who walk 10% of the batters they face, even if they're in the bullpen, don't last long in the MLB.
Also on his StatCorner page, it gives a nice list of splits. He had a very high swinging-strike % in Double-A last year, which could've led to such a high strikeout rate. One thing that appears to be a plus in his favor is his above-average ground ball tendencies. Calculating his GB% since moving into the bullpen, I get 54% of the balls in play against him are grounders. So even if his strikeout rate dips (which my first reaction is that it will) in 2010 at whatever minor league level we put him (probably Double-A Erie?), he should get enough grounders to compensate for it.
Mark of TigsTown.com tweeted this about the repertoire of Voss:
#Tigers new reliever, Jay Voss, sits 90-92, gets up to 93, decent breaking ball and command of both pitches, some potential as BP lefty.
Sounds promising enough, I suppose. I guess it's probably a fair return on the deal, even though we're paying 96% of Robertson's contract.
Still, my biggest contention about this trade isn't the actual trade itself, it's the process that took place.
- This deal didn't have to be made today, there was no rush.
- This is a crazy way to save $400K when we could've saved that much had we released him and someone signed him for the league minimum (which I think would have happened)
- Dontrelle continues to get a pass because he costs $2 million more.
- Additionally, I doubt Willis "wins" the fifth starting spot if his shiny spring ERA were more indicative of how he's pitched. And that is my biggest beef: the process of the front office at this time.
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Some one give me love for the "Major League" reference!
“Gimmie Vaughn!”
“Vaughn? Rick Vaughn?”
“Yeah. I got a good feeling.”
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by Mike Rogers on Mar 30, 2010 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I caught it at first glance
very good movie quote usage. High five.
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This is a $$$ Deal and a Warning to Dontrelle and Bondo!
Make your numbers or see you later!
Regarding Nate in the Pen
This is a good take on it at Beyond the Boxscore. He’d possibly be a very valuable LOOGY at the very least. Why not get SOME value out of him rather than just paying him to not be here?
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. . . and of coure, the one thing the Tigers most need . . .
“He’d possibly be a very valuable LOOGY at the very least”
The point being . . .
. . . that while he might be a valuable LOOGY in the abstract, the Tigers can’t reasonably carry 4 lefty relievers
He's barely less expensive...
working for someone else. Illitch is paying for him either way, so how much he makes in the bullpen is totally irrelevant.
Then release the guys like Brad Thomas who aren’t as good as Nate Robertson. Clearly cost is of no concern to the Tigers since they just paid him $9.6 million to go away, so why not pay him the extra $400K and use him in a role in which he could, at the least, give this club – one that is bent on contending in 2010 for a division crown – something.
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points are valid...
But they both suck and nobody would trade for Willis. This trade sheds some fat (Robertson is no longer our problem), we get a young guy who COULD pan out, and some extra dollhairs. Maybe Willis doesn’t work but he has been fine for a 5th starter this spring (and he’s still 28 years old). Either way we look at it, I think we see plenty of spot starts from Bonine, Gags, etc. etc. – spot starts that more likely than not would have been needed with Robertson, too.
(this is the cliff notes of the 1400 words I diarrhea’d at D4L — I’ll let a BYB boss link it if it’s worthy or you can go there to check it out yourself)
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But if there’s going to be gobs of spot-starts available, why not keep Nate, then and give yourself another chance at something sticking against the wall? Just doesn’t seem to be a move that needs to be made.
And we didn’t need to shed some fat, especially monetarily due to him and Willis both being in the last years of their deals. And I’d argue Willis hasn’t pitched well at all in the spring.
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Well, the gobs of spot starts is just my guess – maybe Willis pitches fine as the 5th starter, who knows.
Yeah the $400,000 is nothing, but the fat is one of them eating another pitcher’s innings, one who will be here beyond this season (or eating team morale by being unhappy campers). One would have gotten sent to the curb, I’m guessing, and so why not get something – as little as it may be? Keeping both of them makes no sense because the Tigers already have their fair share of up and coming LOOGYs. (Ni, Coke, Thomas, Seay?, Schlereth)
I don’t see any reason to hate on the Tigers for getting something because I think it’s safe to say that they weren’t going to get anything for Willis from anyone. I guess it depends on how much we value this Voss guys (and I guess $400,000) but I’d take a young arm, even if it’s a flier, and chump change over solely eating a $10 or $12 million contract any day.
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Ni and Coke can go down, Thomas can go away, Seay can go to rehab his shoulder and Schlereth has options. We have roster maneuverability. If we didn’t have any way to get these LH’s out of our bullpen via options or outright release (Thomas), then I’d agree. But Nate, at the least, would likely be a good LOOGY. I’d rather have him in the pen than a flier on a kid in double-a ball. We’ll get more value out of Nate than Jay Voss.
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Ni and Coke are better than Nate at being LOOGYs and that’s their role. Nate would be a 32-year old not that good of a starter, turned even worse reliever (career 8.08 ERA as a reliever). It’s not a smooth transition as much as people want to believe that. So, no thanks on Nate, especially over Ni and Coke.
As for Thomas, well, he pitched OK this spring (and had a better ERA than Nate) so obviously the Tigers felt his value as a reliever was more than Nate’s (or Willis’).
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And a 4.08 ERA as a starter.
Only one came in 1012 Innings and one came in 39 innings. He dominates LHB’s in his career (.694 OPS against, 3.43 K/BB ratio), so if you use him against LHB’s chances are he’ll be good. Again, a guy isn’t a good reliever until he’s given an actual shot as a reliever. Nate’s duty in the pen has been long relief and/or shuffling back and forth due to his injuries/other pitchers injuries, etc etc. He can’t become a LOOGY in role definition without the chance.
And why isn’t it as smooth of a transition? I honestly have no idea – I’ve never looked into it/don’t know of any articles that have (if I find them, I’ll link to them in a fanshot at some point).
Thomas was also just $1 mil with options I believe. So he could be moved one way or another to make room. I just don’t see the point in paying him money to pitch elsewhere when there was still a possibility to give the Tigers value. We have to pay him anyways.
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regarding willis not pitching well this spring
you wouldn’t have to argue with me. He’s pitched a total of 19.1 innings all spring and some people act like he’s walking on water. I am not impressed. I expect to see more imploding as the season wears on
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
I haven't seen anyone act like he's walking on water...
Maybe I’m not around here enough. Nobody in this specific comment thread is arguing that he’s not going to implode, but it’s kind of silly to say he hasn’t done well this spring. Yeah, the walks are still up and he’s had some luck on his side, but you don’t go 20 innings and have a 3.26 ERA by being completely bad – no matter how you slice it.
Look at it this way – After Willis’ first 3 starts in 2009 he had a 3.57 ERA in 17.2 IP. Two of those starts were good (6.1 shutout IP, and 6.2 IP, 3 runs) and the other was close to being the Willis we all know and love to hate. Yet it’s completely acceptable as a 5th starter IMO if he can continue to do that (which he didn’t do in 2009). But they only get so many innings in the spring and you base decisions like a 5th starter off of it unfortunately. What he’s done this spring is 5th starter material (as was what Nate did, but Nate actually garnered interest from other teams, it seems).
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It's not silly at all.
The walks just aren’t up, the walks are essentially equal to his K’s. Pitchers that don’t strike out more than they walk usually supplement it with massive amounts of ground balls (even then, they still K more than they BB). Guys with 1:1 K:BB ratios just don’t cut it in the major leagues. Nate can at least miss bats and be average in GB’s.
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well shoot I had a reply all typed up and I lost it when I said something below...
So real quick…. I wasn’t arguing who was better of the two (I don’t deny that Nate had the better Spring) but I think it IS silly to say that Willis has been nothing but bad this spring as was insinuated by you when you said “I’d argue Willis hasn’t pitched well AT ALL in the spring”
Like I said above, you don’t end up with a 3.26 ERA in 19 innings with nothing but mustiness. Look at today for instance – Willis was great in the first 3 innings on their own. He obviously still has the implosion problem, but he’s overall had adequate innings this spring for a 5th starter. As I said above, if he has 2 of 3 starts like he did in his first three of 2009, all the time, he’ll be more than fine as a 5th starter. Whether that happens or not, who knows (and I’ll take the unlikely side of that bet).
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He has been nothing but bad this spring.
I don’t think a 1:1 K:BB ratio in the spring is indicative of anything but bad. We just have philosophical differences on the issue. And that’s kosher with me.
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Yeah I respect your view on it
I’m just saying that the ratio is the result of his 1-2 inning implosions, not how the majority of his innings have gone this spring. If my 5th starter has a 3.26 ERA though when it’s all said and done, then he can have a 1:2 K:BB ratio for all I care, because runs are what’s most important, not walks — though they coincide usually.
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not too many from here
but articles I’ve read; other blogs and so on….
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
At the end of the day...
We’re just arguing about who is going to be here to not be able to hold down the 5th spot in the rotation. At least I can only be disappointed by two overpaid Tigers pitchers now.
YES
I honestly didn’t care who the 5th starter was, because odds are we will all be pulling our hair out by his second or third start anyway. I just hope we don’t debate who is out-sucking the other until August. It’s done, Nate’s gone, let’s have fun discussing it for a couple days then get excited for the regular season.
Also from another thread
if we don’t win the division or make the playoffs without Robertson, we weren’t going to do it with him.
And let's be realistic
It’s not that Nate gave up that extra run in a 3-2 loss. It’s that he gave up that extra run in a 8-7 loss.
by nicolas08 on Mar 30, 2010 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Hahaha.
Rec’d. Good point.
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Robertson has not been effective for four years.
Most employees get fired after one or two ineffective years!
And most don't get contract extensions before they prove they are worthy of such a thing.
Unless you’re Dontrelle Willis or employed by the Tigers.
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Nate Robertson Was a MLB Picher Four Years Ago
Now he is washed up!
This trade makes me ill.
If Willis lands back on the DL with Steve Blass disease, and Nate thrives in his new-ish surroundings, do you think DD will officially be in the hot seat? Besides landing Cabrera, he has had more misses than hits the last 3-4 years…
by peazgrl on Mar 30, 2010 7:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
what id he does ok then?....
…everyone seems to think hes goign to implode.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't imagine why
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No Run Support
by allikazoo on Mar 30, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I mean its not like Nate has been lights out either
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
except nate missed time due to actual injuries
and while I am not dogging on dontrelle – I understand mental disorders as I have a few of my own – he missed time due to anxiety in addition to other injuries. this is why people do not trust him. they are afraid he is going to go crazy again and be a sucky pitcher. I don’t know how I can explain that to you more clearly!
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No Run Support
it takes years and years to
get anxiety under control…. years
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probably, everyone's different
I was just trying to explain to bennie why people think he’s going to “implode”
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no I know
I don’t know what an anxiety disorder is really but I just knew Greinke had one “off” year before returning from his so figured I’d throw that in there.
I’m not disputing that Willis might/will implode. That’s up in the air and if I was betting on it, I’d be stupid not to take the “implode” side, but to me there is no use in saying “it’s going to happen!!!!!!” just so I can say “I told you so” later. It’ll be what it’ll be, I guess, and if it happens, let’s just hope he gets the hook before it’s too detrimental.
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yeah i basically feel the same way
maybe he’ll do fine. but i don’t have much hope, other than they better give him the hook before it hurts him emotionally and hurts the team in the standings.
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It took him a while before he turned it around, though.
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I don't remember exactly
But looking at his stats, I see a 17 loss season which most likely led to some severe anxiety disorder, then he had a year off for the most part, and then back to throwing 100+ innings/14 GS and doing fairly well. But I don’t know for sure. Year and a half?
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Honestly, I have no idea.
I just remember him not being talked about for what felt like a long time. I didn’t look at the numbers, but 1½ years seems plausible.
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btw Bennie
I’m with you on this. I really hope D-Train does well this year, and I don’t get this “sky is falling” mentality about trading our 5th starter. Robertson is not the “missing piece” for this team.
Again, focusing on the wrong thing.
It’s less about the piece and more about the process. It’s an unnecessary deal that could’ve been pushed off until later. Let’s face it, we’re throwing spaghetti at the wall in the 5th spot. Why pay someone to take some of our spaghetti and give us a box of spaghetti that may or may not stick in a couple years when we’re trying, evidentally, to win now?
(Bad analogy that I took too far, haha).
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I'm not so sure
you make a valid point on the timing of the trade, but think about this: if Willis is still battling whatever anxiety disorder he’s had (there are multiple and I don’t know exactly what he’s dealing with), maybe trading Robertson was the confidence boost that Willis needs. Without NateRob breathing down his neck, Willis may be more relaxed on the mound and pitch better because of that. Of course, we didn’t see that today, but it’s just an idea (more for the sake of argument). It’s still one EXPENSIVE confidence booster.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
well, today Willis didn't know he was a starter until he was pulled.
But I do agree that the mental aspect could be very important – Willis knowing that he’s apart of a rotation on opening day could be a key boost.
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and that puts
an enormous amount of pressure on him. That’s when the “what ifs” start to kick in and that anxiety goes through the roof
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I disagree
I think that the anxiety builds more when you have someone breathing down your neck like Robertson would be. Willis may be more relaxed in this situation knowing that the guy behind him is Eddie Bonine, who is about as intimidating as a newborn puppy.
I disagree
with your disagreement. You don’t have to have someone breathing down your neck for anxiety to build up. I know from personal experience
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
I always say I look forward to being horribly wrong.
I was wrong on Edwin Jackson being very good last year (even though I think it was way unsustainable). I will gladly eat crow if Willis has a fine season for a No. 5 starter. I’d put the odds on that at 80/20 bad/good, though. probably being generous, as well.
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10 bucks says it happens.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
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by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
20
He’s in the National League. I’d be willing to bet he gets 10 starts against the likes of the Pirates, Mets, Nats, Reds, Giants, and Padres. AND he gets to pitch to pitchers. Nate’s probably one happy dude right now.
What would constitute Nate "destroy"-ing?
3.84 ERA? I’ll take the over on that.
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I don't know
But I wouldn’t go under there either. His stats will be much better than they would have been in a Tigers uni.
I will take the over on that as well.
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And that’s why I’m ok with this trade — I don’t want a guy in our bullpen that we are betting on to have an ERA worse than 3.84 (Nate’s career best, so a year I’d say he was “destroy”-ing it), and in the NL no less. Not on a team I’m expecting to make some serious noise, anyhow.
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Seriously Nate Sucks, this is the reason this makes sense
He seems like a great guy and all but he isn’t a very good MLB pitcher , much less a starter. There is a 99% chance IMHO he is not going to be good with the marlins, this guy was an average pitcher one year in his career, if you really stretch it maybe two. That is why I put his chances of being average are 1% at best. I would bet my life he was on steriods that year(or two since those were obviously the years steriod use was rampant and he threw harder than any other year). Since I don’t have visual proof (this is what his supporters bring up) lets say for arguments sake he wasn’t on steriods.
He just isn’t very good period and a pitcher that has been bad for that many years has an almost nil chance of returning to his “career” year. I would say the chances of him being even a lousy to mediocre pitcher that can make 30 starts which is his career norm is probably 20% at best, that would be an ERA of 5 in the NL in a pitchers park. D-train doens’t have a much better chance but at least he was above average for a number of years. For that reason at his his upside is higher, realistically the chances of him being an average starter is probably 5-10% which is a heck of a lot more than Nate but chances are neither of these guys make more than 20 decent starts in their careers so this is much ado about nothing.
Mike, this was perfect.
I owe you a handshake, good sir. Well spoken.
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Dontrelle Baby.....
…..Prove em wrong…..Show em what ya got buddy…..Show them that you can do it…..You pitched well this spring…..Your numbers were great…..Including today Willis had pitched 19.1 innings giving up 15 hits giving up 7 runs for a era of 3.26 with 12 walks and 13ks and 0 HRS!!!!…..Nates numbers were 19.2 innings with 18 hits with a era of 3.66 with 7 walks and 19ks and 2hrs…..You earned it buddy….Everyone new it was a spring audition for the 3 and you earned one of the 2 spots….Once again id like to say great job Dontrelle you earned it buddy….GO GET EM TIGS!!!!
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions
Tell KDawg
to check out the Walter board 2011 mock. If Staff had “medicore” receivers at UGA, how come one went 2nd the same year as him and the other is projected at 2 overall next year?
Boy needs to call somebody!
Not to mention..
….his pitches had great mvement this spring and he was hitting the corners….Great spring.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand
how 13 K’s and 12 BB’s are “great” numbers. Can anyone elaborate on this to me?
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I will.....
……We all know Dontrelle has issues with control and up until today his walk numbers were well below his per 9 inning average for the past 5 years…..Sometimes pitchers have a bad game like today…..i mean how many number 5s have eras of 3.26….He had a bad day…..He may have gotten pinched some who knows…..So there ya go…..GO DTRAIN!!!!
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
From 2005-2009:
3159 total batters faced.
511 K
288 BB
14 IBB
So, 274 Unintentional walks = 8.67% of the batters he faced, he walked.
Just went through each boxscore and looked at the batters Willis has faced.
This Spring:
85 total batters faced.
12 walks
0 intentional walks
14.11% of hitters he has faced this spring has walked. that’s almost 1 out of every 6 guys. 2 every 1.5 times through the order.
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Do I get to say it?
Small sample size…hahaha.
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Include the numbers from his starts in Detroit
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by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
they are "great" numbers
if you are giving Dontrelle a pep talk, which seems to be what bbf was doing . . .
Yup....
….we all need pep talks every now and then
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing about Dontrelle . . .
. . .is that there is absolutely no reason other than what’s in his head why he can’t be the pitcher who had a 22-win season again. And given that, he spring has been . . . encouraging, though not compeltely persuasive.
it's like Detroitchik and Magglio
just let him do his thing and don’t ask too many questions.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
haha...
exactly
Except Detroitchik will beat you if you talk about trading Maggs..
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I hope he does well this year though, I made sure to not draft him on my fantasy team to avoid any possible jinxing.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
He’s on one of my fantasy teams and I hope to draft him on my second one tonight. Makes me feel like I’m in control. or something.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
One thing that is missing from this discussion and others...
Dontrelle is a competitor, he is an amazing teammate and his teammates love to rally behind him. He may have a 4.5 era, but he can still win 10-12. He brings a winning attitude and I think the Tigers will be a much better team with him as the #5. He will leave it out on the field. And if he fails, Galarraga is nice insurance (which people forget).
Robertson, Zach Minor, et al are not clutch. They got some talent, but they always give up the big hit; they always DO manage to give up an extra run in a 8-7 loss. Robertson has done some good things for the Tigers, but this is a new and younger team. I am very happy to see him go. He would not have been back next year. And we got something for him now. Way to go Dave. You did the right thing.
+1.....
…..man competes hard and no one can deeny that.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want a competitor, I want a pitcher
Here is your competitor:
3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 BB
5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 BB
2.1 ER, 5 ER, 5 BB
5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 BB
6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB
6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 BB
4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB
5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB
2.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 BB
5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 BB
1.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 BB
4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 BB
1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB
0.0 IP, 1 ER, 2BB
5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 BB
-——————————
57.2 IP, 53 ER, 63 BB
No cherry picking either, that’s the entirety of his Tiger career
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 30, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well....
…we all do I mean neither Nate nor Dontrelle are above average pitchers….No one denys that…..Nate has issues as well thats why he was in the situation he was in here…..Dontrelle got the 5th spot…Lets root him on….GO DTRAIN
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
the issue was growing in Robertson's elbow, and it was removed
why is it so hard for you to acknowledge that?
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 30, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He also struggled after it was removed
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure.....
…..im just saying these were his numbers after he came back end of august…..Im not saying Nate didnt deserve a spot im just saying that Dontrelle didnt not deserve one Kurt.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
and his groin, and his back, and his thumb....
He’s washed up.
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and to be fair to Nate
he was quite the bulldog himself.
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Robertson and Willis being eating by alligators . . .
. . . might have been the best possible spring training result for the Tigers, but failing that, I’m glad to see Robertson gone. I just hope that they are as quick to pull the trigger on Dontrelle, if necessary.
When are Jacob Turner or Casey Crosby going to be ready?
Any chance we see either of them this year?
2012
If we’re lucky. And if they don’t flame out.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
For Leyland
I think Dave did this for Leyland. Leyland did not want to have to handle the three pitchers all season. Becasue you know whomever went to the pen was going to complain about it, or even worse, even time they got shelled it was becasue they are not good out of the pen. So they cut one pitcher, eliminate the hassle, for better or worse. They did it with Gary last year. He complained no matter where Leyland put him. Seemed to work out in that case. Clete had as good season without the drama. Sme thing will happen this year. Plus I just couldnt go through another season of Nate. At least with Willis there is a chance he could be good. I am sure he won’t but at least there is a chance. Face it, Nate does not put fans in the seats.
by SOCAL TIGERS FAN on Mar 30, 2010 8:13 PM EDT reply actions
Fire Leyland
I said it. I’d prefer the two win Nate Robertson over the manager.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The Tigers are just so over you, Nate
Logically, if the Tigers had kept all 3, they would have made Nate a starter, and put Willis in the pen (and after all the 2nd chances he has been given, he would have been gracious about it). Then if Willis gets into trouble, you can yank him quick. You make him a starter, and you run the risk of tiring out your bullpen because he can’t make it out of the 2nd inning… and it’s not fair to put pressure on Kid Rick to give you 8 solid innings if he can every start.
Since this wasn’t about saving $$$, no one would have batted an eyelash at releasing Willis with 12 BBs and 2 HBPs. The Tigers were tired of Nate, and I’m sure he was tiring of them too on some level. It’s just the way this all went down that really isn’t cool.
Heres why ilike the trade
Willis as the 5th starter is not that bad at all.If you look at it as a 5th starter with rainouts and off days they can skip the 5th spot an avg of 8-10 games a year.But if Willis struggles JL can put him in the pen and either start Coke or even NI.NI did get a start in spring training and did quite well.But as a 5th starter what if Willis just goes out and gives us 5 innings per start our bp can be fresh with our top 3 or 4 going 6-8 innings per start.Willis going 5 and then bring in Bonine for 2 or 3 will be like having 2 starters going.But give Willis 4 or 5 starts.And does anyone know if Laird has ever caught Willis before and if not what kind impact do you think Laird could have on Willis.And my thought is this with a good d behind Willis and Laird as a catcher between Willis and Bonine could we get 10-15 wins from the 5 spot and that is a great thing for a 5th starter.When other teams may not get that from their 4th starter
Yup.....
……if he struggles we have guys like Bonine who deserve a shot……I really like Bonine much better the Nate……Nate owuld have been that guy and this would make Bonine the guy that would step in and is probably a better option then a worn dowm Robertson…..Great Points.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
There's not a whole lot of defense
when someone is walking guys and giving up longballs. Anyone who thinks Detroit is going to get 10-15 wins out of the Willis/Bonine tandem is high.
by ozymandius1024 on Mar 30, 2010 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well Dontrelle....
….doesnt give up a lot of HRS so thats a plus.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 30, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
not a fan of the trade, BUT
1. In what world has Nate Robertson been better than Eddie Bonine the past 2 years?
2. Nate still had a 1.67 WHIP in his second half ‘resurgence’ last year.
3. You can talk about BB/K ratios and FIP all you want, but Robertson has had a BABIP under .310 only twice in his career, rendering those stats less useful. At some point you can’t ignore the actual ERA and WHIP.
In conclusion, Nate probably has a higher floor than JB and DW, but they have higher upsides, and Bonine has done more than all 3 the past 2 seasons.
Strangely . . .
. . . the Tigers show signs of caring about putting departing players into good positions. This seems like a pretty good deal, from the point of view of Robertson. See also, not offering Polanco arbitration, which got Polanco a better deal; trading Pudge to a contender . . .
I give Dontrelle
one month or less in the starting rotation and maybe a month and a half till he’s back on the DL
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Such largess!
My expectations are tempered but I figure he’ll end up released and not on the DL if things go badly.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
we can only hope
for a release if that happens, but i see history repeating itself in Detroit.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Money and process
I don’t think money has anything to do with this, because if the numbers reported are true there’s basically no savings.
Also, this is when this trade has to be made, because as soon as you go north without him in the rotation, he’s not a starter anymore. They got a decent Middle Reliever for a guy who’s not in the longterm plans. It’s what it is.
Gum Time
I agree that relying on Dontrelle isn’t the surest of bets. But let’s not kid ourselves about Nate. He’s a journeyman at this point. If Dontrelle’s doesn’t work out, I’d rather see Oliver or Crosby get a shot anyhow.
Andy Oliver has pitched zero professional innings
Not every pitching prospect is Rick Porcello and can jump right to the major leagues. You adopt that strategy, you turn Oliver, Crosby and Turner into Andrew f*cking Miller. It’s not only stupid, it’s reckless and it ought to be a crime to wreck a young player’s career that way.
Pardon the tirade, but I’m pissed off. Our starter depth consists of Alfredo Figaro, Armando Galaraga and Eddie Bonine. We’re boned.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
for someone who was claiming "we don't know what we have until they get a chance to pitch" during the Valverde closer talks
you’re displaying quite the double-standard here.
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It's starters vs. relievers though....
relievers tend to rely on what they’re already really good at when it comes to pitching. Starting pitchers need more pitches, more time to develop those pitches, and therefore shouldn’t be rushed into the majors.
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+1
This is the same reason Ryan Perry was brought up to the majors so quickly. Relievers (especially closers) are relying more on God-given abilities than the deception, changing speeds, and otherwise “thinking man’s game” that starters need to be successful.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
I’m talking about guys like Bonine who has already shown he can be a starter.
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You know
We just dealt a potential 2-.5 win pitcher for a LOOGY in AA who may or may not provide value a year down the road- if he’s not passed on the depth chart by everyone else. In a year when we’re competing. AND we got no salary relief.
Pardon my French, but we got fucked. Absolutely fucked.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Kick down sparky.
It’s not the end of the world or even the season. Not a trade I like but last I looked there are still 162 games left to play.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
by 13194013 on Mar 30, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm sorry
But every win, hell- every run, matters to this team. If Nate can help (and he could have), then we’re doing nothing useful by paying him to pitch for Florida.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll say it again
if we don’t win the division without Nate, we weren’t gonna win it with him.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
2-5 wins???
We needed 13 out of 2006 Nate to be a Wild Card team. See Rob’s comment below – Nate wasn’t going to help.
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Robertson stinks
Willis stinks too. If Willis continues to stink, let’s give Galarraga a go, or Miner, or Bonine, or Ruddy Lugo, or Casey Crosby, etc.
There’s no way of knowing who was going to be any good. Willis at least used to be good and his problem is “only” that he can’t throw strikes (yes, I know that’s asinine). Robertson was never as good as Willis, so it makes sense to give him the shot.
Again, if Willis fails, give him the quick hook and try Bonine or Galarraga. Ruddy Lugo had a perfectly decent year in AAA last year (4.07 ERA), give him a shot. Or Figaro. We’re sifting through a bunch of crappy options, and we just voted the first guy off the island.
I like baseball.
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
by allikazoo on Mar 30, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Almost typed
licking baseball. That would have been awkward.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Geez Maybe There is Something Else Going on Here
Maybe Cabrera went to Leyland and DD and put in a nice very strong word for keeping Willis?
Maybe Robo-man was having some unpublicized difficulties with his teammates, though Leyland says he doesn’t believe in chemistry.
Accountants and saber freeks live and die by the numbers. But a lot of times there is a lot more to life than just the numbers.
Maybe, just maybe this was one of those times. Just maybe
Maybe
DD got sick of Samara’s pictures of Nate’s awesome facial hair because they were better than his striped polos and ugly sweaters, so he traded them so DD could be the sole object of RotT doodles (besides Paws. Paws is awesome).
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
He could have easily lost 15 too.
Let’s not anoint Nate as some sort of messiah.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
No Messiah
I predicted this before spring training began (15 wins), & that he would recover & pitch well this year. Now we will never know for sure. We must now just move on.
by TigersFan1957 on Mar 30, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Off topic
But since we all need something to calm down- I present this.
I lol’d.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
so many dramatic fans
the cry-babies need to get over it. there wasn’t this much anger when granderson got traded.
i enjoy the blog world, but i can’t stand when hundreds of “die-hard” fans think they can do a better job at being a GM than a pro like dombro. this isn’t fantasy baseball. do you think the organization didn’t look at every possible aspect? do you think they would sacrifice the club willingly? get real. they made a tough decision.
does anyone remember all the belly-aching robertson did at the beginning of last year when he was told he would be in the pen? he made statements to the press about how “it might be time to move on” and leyland responded by saying he isn’t good enough to make such demands.
leyland keeps it real. dombrowski keeps it real. the tigers still have their shot. robertson being traded doesn’t put the tigers in any terrible situation that they weren’t already in. the tigers need offense. they have enough pitching and defense. you all know that deep down.
by weedig on Mar 30, 2010 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Don't be a jerk to people because they are sad to see a player go.
How many times does it need to be said that people were upset over the Granderson trade too. And Polanco, lest you try to bring that up.
People get attached to players for different reasons and you and other people don’t understand. How dare you be so disrespectful.
In a long distance relationship with the Tigers--and, yes, we're doing fine.
by wepri31 on Mar 30, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wish we could have gotten a position player...
and the amount of the contract we’re paying is absurd.
My other question to DD: Do you have contacts with any team other than the Florida Marlins and the Yankees?
Sheesh.
That's the other thing
If we dealt away Robertson and 9.6mm for a guy like Zach Lutz (3B in the Mets system) I wouldn’t be as mad. I’d be irritated, but at least we’d be getting a nice piece back for him.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I have a question to raise...
alot of us (most of us) feel that Dontrelle is destined to implode again do to his anxiety issues or just plain lack of skills. My question is this…Nate has had his share of injuries over the past few years. As pointed out by Kurt above and probably some others, those injuries were fixed. However, injuries come back. Just because the engine is new doesn’t mean the brakes lines won’t break. How are we so sure that Nate isn’t also destined for another break down? Especially given his history of injury as of late and the fact that he is no longer a spring chicken in the age department?
Note that I’m not saying that I like the trade, there were better options. I’m just a little confused that a lot of us can accuse Dontrelle of being a sure implosion when the possibility of Nate imploding exists to some degree, possibly nearing the degree Willis?
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Nothing is for sure in the game of baseball
But I see a pitcher in Dontrelle Willis that started a steady decline after his magical 2005 season. Year after year, he has gotten worse and worse. I believe that he had a delivery that could not be sustained as his large frame naturally “filled out”. For one thing, a pitcher has to come to a brief rest point between his wind up and delivery. Dontrelle’s head was way in back of his center of gravity at this point, so it’s going to be all over the place coming forward and he’s going to be wild. What he had and still has going for him is that discombobulated delivery is very deceptive, so he’ll get his share of K’s if he is even around the plate.
But there is also strength in numbers. The Tigers are essentially hoping that two out of Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis will pitch effectively for them for a full season. If not, they’re short a starting pitcher or two. Heaven forbid something happens to one of the other three starters. Bonine is a minor leaguer, IMO. They (Leyland) have no confidence in Miner, who has actually been better than any of the three musketeers in the past three seasons as a starter. If one of the musketeers goes down, two still remain. I’d put the odds of any given one of them rebounding at less than 50%, and the odds of Willis lasting a full season in the rotation at 10% (that’s double what I gave him two weeks ago). Nate was at least insurance, and to me, he was clearly better than Willis in the rotation. No guarantees on any of them, but betting on Willis is pure foolishness, IMO. I hope I’m wrong.
Upside
Dontrelle has upside that Robertson didn’t. Trading Robertson gives Willis added confidence. If he pitches well against KC, then he may have a good year. Do not know why the fascination about Robertson was. Anyways the Tigers have other options is Willis gets blown up this year. They can always bring a young guy up for a spot start or use Bonine or Galarraga.
The fascination is Rogers hates Dombrowski.
He basically says so in a comment thread on Fangraphs. You can expect that to be apparent in all of his future posts.
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I had to make a comment here
because a certain number above 162 was staring at me.
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 31, 2010 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Willis has one year contract left thats why he is still here …and he is doing good in Spring Training and its not his fault Nate got traded and what has NATE Done in the like couple years ?….be realistic both could of been trade and it makes sense..and I dont feel sorry for either.they both stink lol

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