An Open Letter to the BYB Community
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 10:03 PM EDT
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PrintAnd no, this isn't about the editorial staff.
There have been a bunch of comments recently within comment threads about bringing up Casey Crosby, Jacob Turner or Andy Oliver to start games for Detroit if when the D-Train derails. This is pants-on-head retarded. Why, exactly do I think this is pants-on-head retarded, you ask? Let's take a look at the minor league records of Messrs. Crosby, Turner and Oliver.
Casey Crosby: 109.2 IP professionally, at LoA ball
Jacob Turner: 0.0 IP professionally.
Andy Oliver: 0.0 IP professionally.
All three of these guys -combined- have less experience than Rick Porcello did. And they certainly had less than Andrew Miller. Remember Miller? He was the stud LH pitching prospect we dealt to Florida in the Miguel Cabrera deal. I don't blame you if you forgot him- his major league career has been a trainwreck, and he's logged something around 200 IP- in 2 seasons. His career is probably going to be in the bullpen, if he has one at all. Andrew Miller is the reason you do not rush pitchers. Let me repeat that: YOU. DO. NOT. RUSH. PITCHERS. These kids need time to develop their pitches, and while they are potentially plus offerings, the key word there is potentially. In order to get a pitch to be "plus", you have to throw it, lots. You also have to learn how to mix your pitches in a way that fools hitters. And almost all minor league pitchers need to work on their command and control. These three are no exception to that.
But DDBB, you say, Rick Porcello made the leap. He did really well last year. This is true. But Porcello is the exception, not the rule. And we don't know yet how much his career will be hurt by the lack of time spent in the minors developing his curve, slider and change. Porcello is also a smart pitcher who realizes that he can live off the sinkerball and practice other pitches by working them in occasionally. The pitching smarts this kid shows are rare- don't expect another kid to come up and show the same.
Essentially, what those calling for young, inexperienced pitchers to start games in the big leagues (with the pressure to succeed) are asking for is a generation of Andrew Miller's and busted prospects. Pitching prospects are so risky to begin with- we don't even know if these three will make the Majors, let alone dominate. So please don't be pants-on-head retarded. Knock off the discussion regarding these guys pitching in the Show this year.
Thanks, and I promise depth charts are coming.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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See, now I just have an image in my head
of Bobby Seay running around the diamond in his skivvies with his pants on his head. I have no idea why Seay is doing this, but it makes a strange amount of sense.
And I agree with the post 100%. Crosby, Oliver, and Turner are supremely talented individuals, but all three have stuff to work on. This isn’t the NBA or NFL, where draftees can just jump right into the top professional ranks without skipping a beat. There is a VERY good reason why baseball has the most extensive minor league system in sports. It’s a tougher sport to learn and master, with a lot of strange motions and muscles that require time and refinement.
Awesome image
Samara, if you read this, we need a visual. Please.
by Rob Rogacki on Mar 31, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Please do
That would be amazing.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, DDBB:
Has your opinion of Andy Oliver changed at all? I know you weren’t too thrilled with him as a second round pick, but now that we’ve gotten a little look at him in the AFL, and now that the Tigs appear committed to having him start, do you feel better about the pick?
I'll feel better when he finds his curveball.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I may do a spot on him in the middle of the season after we have some data
He’s an interesting pitcher at least.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 30, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Bondo has a slurve/slider
He don’t need no stinking changeup.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I looked back over my post when he made a start under the PITCHf/x lights in the AFL and now I’m not impressed. Granted, 29 pitch sample in basically his first competition since his college season ended. So, I’m hoping/assuming its getting/gotten better than that first look. I’d like to see more ‘depth’ on it so-to-speak. Basically, i want it to fall of the table more than just going straight down.
I wish the Tigers spring training was in Arizona so they could be under PITCHf/x lights a couple of times.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
by Mike Rogers on Mar 31, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Very nice post.
Let Crosby and Turner develop and don’t try to rush them in a panic.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Can you address this to
DD and Leyland as well…
by CokeIsMyHeroin on Mar 30, 2010 11:36 PM EDT reply actions
Trust me
I’d love to.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to point out another example
though in a lesser form: Jeremy Bonderman. Bondo was rushed to the bigs when we were in the dregs of Columbus hell, and all we’ve heard about him throughout his career is “he needs a third pitch.” If he had more time in the minors, odds are he would have been able to somewhat develop a much-needed changeup.
Great example.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Fiitting example, but...
…I’ve never been impressed by Jeremy Bonderman as a “thinking” or “developing” sort of guy. I’m not sure he would have gotten better in the minors. If the man can’t develop at least a show-me changeup in 5 spring trainings, he’s not the sharpest or most coachable guy out there.
He's dyslexic
That may be where your impression comes from- he’s not good in interviews and struggles pretty hard with that kind of stuff. The guy has at least shown a ton of initiative and I’d say that developing a change in the majors is close to impossible.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Apr 5, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Truth
he’s not going to develop a Big-League-quality changeup in 30 days either. It needed to happen in the minors earlier in his career.
Indeed
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
You are preaching to the choir
I wouldn’t expect to see Turner, Crosby or Oliver til’ at the very earliest 2011. Even that is a stretch.
However, like many have already pointed out Tigers brass has a track record of rushing prospects. I.E. Miller, Maybin, Porcello and Perry.
In the cases of Porcello and Perry it worked out pretty well. In the cases of Maybin & Miller…not so much!
I guess everyone is entitled their own opinion. However,(like you) I tend to chuckle when I hear these people suggest that a pitcher with zero expirience is the answer. Perhaps even funnier to me is the fact that most of those same people have never even watched those same prospects pitch before.
At any rate, I completely agree!
by JAYRC on Mar 31, 2010 4:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I feel like Perry is different
because he is a reliever. Yes, he could use time to mature in the minors, but he doesn’t rely on 3+ pitches to get guys out. He’s a power pitcher and his God-given ability is what his game is built upon. I don’t think we can lump his success into the likes of Porcello, who truly is the exception to the rule.
Let's watch Mike Leake
The Reds have named their 2009 first-rounder as the 5th starter. Not a day of milb experience (although drafted out of college). Nice parallel to Oliver.
Leake's gonna get run over.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Apr 5, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Disagree.
Mike Leake has a few things going in his favor:
1) great pitching mind. I know interviews are awful ways to help make decisions on players, but from the sounds of it, he’s done nothing but think of the pitcher-batter match up every day since he got to college. Because he’s never been overpowering, he’s always had to rely on changing speeds and mixing pitches.
2) his ball moves EVERYWHERE. Dude had crazy arm-side run on his fastball(s), great downward movement on his change and breaking pitches. He doesn’t have the velocity that people always want, but the dude’s got very good stuff.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
You still need work on command and control
And refining pitches, even slightly. You also set him up for failure.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Again, disagree.
The major pluses about Leak is his command and control. He’s a command and control pitcher. I have also changed my views since last year when I was flipping out about Porcello coming to Detroit so soon: I think you push pitchers as fast as possible because there are some studies that show that pitchers in their 20’s do not improve, they just plateau from 21-25-ish and then slowly decline.
Which makes sense given how maxed out the human body is physically throwing a baseball overhand.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Yes
But at the same time, that’s a lot of high-stress innings to pitch during your injury nexus (which is early 20’s, correct?).
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Apr 6, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Injury nexus is 24 I believe.
Might be wrong. And it depends. If the Reds are smart, they should limit him to something like 150-ish innings. He threw 142 at Arizona State last year, so another 15-25 would put him at 155-165. So, they can still feasibly get something like 20 starts out of Leake without putting him in extreme jeopardy (dusty baker effect notwithstanding … I would guess that Jocketty will try to keep him in check on ruining Leake but who knows).
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Question for you DDB:
I adjust college hitter stats for park/strength of schedule and was wondering if you were willing to collect the raw data for the ACC?
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
What'll it take?
I’m kind of busy for the next couple weeks, but I could find some time for you.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Apr 6, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well now I'm confused.
I had a kid who volunteered to do it and I hadn’t heard from him in weeks and I sent out an email to the 4-5 people that volunteered to grab a conference apiece and this kid emailed me the ACC. So, I don’t think I need you at the moment.
After you’re done with school, though, if you wanted to do the SEC, you could. No pressure. You can say no. I’ll only bad talk you after I ban you for 2-3 weeks tops.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Good to see there's no pressure
Send me the info.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
There'll be a blog, too.
So I’ll link to it when I’m comfortable with the layout and whatnot. I have a guy who is going to send me all the conferences he tracks (which is 24 … I track just 14) a few days before the draft, so I should have 14 full conferences up by Draft Day of adjusted offensive statistics. I don’t think I can express just how much that excites the nerdy side of me. So stoked.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Leake is way better than Oliver is right now.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
It's hard to take a Leake if you've got Wood
Sorry, that line (via Reds Reporter) slayed me.
by ChrisDTX on Apr 6, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree
There seems to be a lot of people thinking that Turner would be ready because he pitched “well” in spring training. He does have some great stuff, but as an example of his control needing work, he walked the bases full before he slayed Goliath errr Big Tex with the K-Slingshot. You cannot rush pitchers, as tempting as it may be, because they need the time to develop the knowledge how to pitch. You think Jacob Turner really had to think hard about what he would throw to Jimmy Whiteshoes in HS? Hmmmm how about a 93mph 2 seamer? Or another 93mph 2-seamer… He may have mixed in a change or curve but I am sure it was very rare he found himself in a situation where he was out there sweating it. Learning how to pitch is more important than talent. (Emphasis here… on the period)
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on Mar 31, 2010 9:27 AM EDT reply actions
Totally agree!
Never rush a young, promising arm!
Or anyone for that matter!
by DetroitTigersGeek on Mar 31, 2010 4:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Who tho?
Who suggested to bring up one of ’em as a fifth starter?!?
Ridiculous!
by DetroitTigersGeek on Mar 31, 2010 4:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I keep seeing the question asked or the suggestion one or both could pitch this year
it’s not the majority. But I understand why DDBB would want to get that off his back.
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 31, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Right on, Deke
I have responded to a number of the comments about our young guns being “ready to step in” next season, but I’ve given up responding. For starters, pitchers need to build up stamina. You don’t just go from throwing in high school for 75 innings one season to throwing 200 innings in a major league rotation within two seasons.
Oliver did pitch in the AFL last season and looked fine, but he still has to build up stamina, and none of these kids has the poise of a Porcello. Only Turner is on the roster because he signed a major league contract, and they don’t need the other two so badly in the bullpen that they’ll start their option clocks ticking next spring. They’re in the pipeline, and they’re on their way, but they are not to be rushed to Detroit.
Oliver- mid to late 2011
Crosby- late 2011 to late 2012
Turner- late 2012 to 2013
That timetable looks about right
I’d say that Oliver isn’t up until 2012 (spring training) and Crosby is a midseason callup that year. But it’s about right.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy has the advantage of three years of college
plus, I figure that if they thought well enough of him to send him to the AFL against some of the most advanced minor league competition, that’s a nice vote of confidence. When I say “late”, I’m thinking a September call up.
Of course, if the Tigers decide that they’d like to give one of them a shot in the bullpen, that could expedite their major league debut, but I think at this point that we have plenty of good arms in the pipeline for relief roles as well.
I am thinking that it’s likely that DD will go shopping for one SP next winter to replace the expiring contracts of the three musketeers, and maybe one guy or a committee will fill out the rotation from within the organization. I’m keeping the good eye on Luis Marte for 2011.
Oliver also has no curveball
A point I make clear every time someone mentions him. Wasted f*cking pick…
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Kinda why I think he's better suited for relief
And nothing wrong with that either!
by JAYRC on Mar 31, 2010 10:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
a lefty reliever ... ?
where have I heard that before?
But actually I agree. I thought Oliver was better suited to relieve.
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 31, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yes.
Jacob Turner
Casey Crosby
This is for everyone. Revel.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
...
I will bury you.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
sorry you feel that way
I mean no harm to anyone.
If anyone wants to ask a simple question, they deserve a simple answer, they shouldn’t have to worry about being bullied, being called stupid, or having their very life threatened in any way.
Sarcasm, dude.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
sense of humor, no?
you should be able to tell he was making a joke.
by Kurt Mensching on Apr 1, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
When even Kurt can tell I'm kidding...
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Alright DDBB
Voice of reason, you. One has to realize that Porcello is extremely rare. For every Kid Rick, there are 20 David Clyde’s (who?…exactly). If Turner is spotted in Comerica Park before 2012, I’ll be surprised and probably a little ticked off. Heck, I was ticked off when Porcello made the team last season. Oliver’s having been a college pitcher accelerates his timetable a bit, but there’s plenty of serviceable arms ahead of him at the big league level that there’s time to let him develop his repertoire on the farm. Crosby is still too closely removed from TJ if you ask me.
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