Morning prowl: That was fun, wasn't it?
by BigAl on Mar 31, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintTuesday, BYB was overrun with knowledgeable Tigers fans, all with an opinion on the trade of Nate Robertson, the elevation of Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman to the starting rotation and Dave Dombrowski's handling of the entire messy situation.
Fun stuff to debate, right?
Well...fun is relative.
If your idea of fun was arguing about millionaire 5th starters and decisions made by the Tigers front office, you were in your element Tuesday. Otherwise, you're thrilled the Tigers are back to playing baseball today and opening day is one day closer.
If you've read the numerous posts from yesterday, you all know how the editorial team at BYB feels about the deal. Thumbs down, but it's more on the institutional level.
To gauge the feelings of Tigers Nation, I've added a poll to the bottom of this post. It's simple. Yea or nay, was the trade of Nate Robertson and the elevation of Dontrelle Willis to the starting rotation the correct decision by the Tigers?
But before the voting commences, it's time for the BYB morning prowl.
Jason Beck tells us the recipient of Robertson's roster spot wasn't Willis or Bonderman. It was actually Eddie Bonine, as Beck has a quote from the oft criticized Dombrowski.
"We had three guys battling for two [rotation] spots," Dombrowski said, "and even though we were prepared to put one of them into the bullpen if we needed to, we just felt it was better for them to be in a spot where they could go out and pitch. So for us, that then means that Bonderman and Willis are our two additional starters in the rotation, and it puts Bonine on the team in the bullpen."
Bonine thus becomes the long man in the pen, and the likely first man into the rotation when..uh...rather, if, that's right, if...Willis fails.
At the News, Lynn Henning says the Tigers are "playing with fire" in putting their faith in a Willis comeback, a huge gamble on their part.
The Willis rooters begin with the Tigers. They want to believe so deeply Willis is back that they made a gutsy move Tuesday that anybody with a love for Las Vegas would have cheered.
The Tigers have been good gamblers of late. They need to be very good for the Willis-Robertson decision to pay off.
Good gamblers? Really? Most of the Tigers recent gambles have ended up blowing up in their face. Gary Sheffield, the past 2 years of Willis, Jarrod Washburn, Aubrey Huff. Talk about rolling snake eyes.
After the jump, the latest opinions from the Tigers blogosphere.
At Detroit4Lyfe, prolific BYB commenter Packey posted a 1400 word manifesto about the trade. You want the Cliff Notes version? He likes it! Here's a small taste...
Now, I'm not saying Willis is going to return to his 2003 (Rookie of the Year) or 2005 (Cy Young votes) form, but like I said, after battling through some issues and having a respectable spring, it won't cripple the Tigers to give him another shot, especially when it was a choice between him and Robertson. It wasn't like they were picking Willis over Porcello or Scherzer here. It was like going to Blockbuster and deciding between Titanic and The Notebook. Unfortunately, Rocky was never even a choice.
As a red-blooded American male who's also a movie buff. I cannot come up with a better chick flick comparison. But which pitcher is Titanic and and which is The Notebook?
Bilfer is coming out of his winter slumber at The Detroit Tigers Weblog. This past weekend, when rumors of Robertson was being shopped hit the tubes of the internets, he urged the Tigers should proceed cautiously in putting all their eggs in the D-Train basket.
A trade of Robertson would be hasty at this point. While he probably has the most trade value of the 3, the Tigers likely can’t afford to lose his arm. He has outpitched his main competitors both this spring and in recent history and is in a similar salary situation. The Tigers are carrying the payroll of a competitor and have enough talent given their division to have a shot at the playoffs. Experimenting with a questionable 5th starter for too long could prove too costly. Kind of like in 2009.
Unfortunately, the Tigers ignored Billfer's warnings. Dombrowski thew caution to the wind...and $9.6M to the Marlins.
At Motor City Bengals, John asks Tigers fans to not lose their ever loving minds the first time Willis has a bad outing...or inning.
But here’s where I’ll caution Tigers fans. Don’t start screaming the first time Willis walks a couple of guys in one inning. Don’t freak out when he has a start like the one he had today. Dontrelle Willis didn’t make this team because he’s going to win a Cy Young award, he doesn’t need to do that. Willis is a number five starter, just the same as any other number five around baseball.
What can teams expect from their number five? A guy that will throw 175 or so innings and keep him team in the game more times than not. A .500 pitcher, nothing more, nothing less.
The question is, can Willis be good enough to do that? I think he can, and more importantly, the Tigers think he can as well.
But...but...we fans do righteous indignation and 20/20 hindsight better than anybody! Just check any BYB game thread...
Here's my final thoughts on the whole Willis - Robertson "situation."
As for Dontrelle Willis, I hope I'm wrong. I desperately want him to succeed. Not as much as the Tigers, obviously. But from all accounts, the D-Train is a great guy, and will be a fan favorite if he has any success at all. If Willis is good, or even remotely close to average, it bodes well for a competitive Tigers season.
Was Nate Robertson a great pitcher? No, he was far from it. Was he a fun player to have around, one who was thrilled to wear the Olde English D? Without a doubt, yes!
No matter what you say about Robertson's talent as a pitcher, he was one of the few players to make Detroit his full-time home. That says volumes.
I wish him nothing but the best in the National League.
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A not-huge gamble
Of course it’s a gamble-every player move is. But, it’s not a huge gamble, whatever Henning says. The odds all along were that both Robertson and Willis would pitch badly and be out of town in short order this year. Anything useful we got out of either one is gravy. I can’t think of too many teams around the league for whom the 5th starter spot isn’t an ongoing audition, anyway.
Find me a team where all 5 starters are locked in place
and I’ll head to Vegas with a boatload of money to put down in their name.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 31, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yankees
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The poll question
The question has a negative and a positive built in it making it impossible to answer Yay or Nay to it. Robertson has not been a good pitcher since 2006 and there is no reason to think (Spring aside) that he will be this year. It seems dumb to trade him away for a minor-leaguer and pay almost all of his salary to have him pitch for the Marlins -essentially paying Jay Voss 9.6 millin to pitch for Erie. But, he was in the last year of his contract and they were not going to resign him unless he pitched like Sandy Koufax – not likely. This way, they get a fairly promising young lefty reliever for him instead of nothing at all. So YAY here. Giving the job to Willis is a NAY so the answer is YAY and NAY both! I look for Toledo and Erie to replace 2/5ths of the Tigers rotation by mid season as they try to do the same with expiring contracts of Bonderman amd Willis as they just did with Robertson! If Gallarga gets it together in Toledo and someone else tears it up, like a Casey Crosby for example they’ll be up here taking those two spots
It's the backup quarterback situation
Everyone loves the backup QB in preseason and when the starter is struggling, but they’ll chew his head off as soon as he makes one bad decision.
And so it’ll be in this case. Willis will have his share of struggles and all the “experts” will scream I told you so. Robertson will have a decent year (because the NL is not the AL) and people will call Dombrowski (easily baseball’s best GM) an idiot for the move.
In all actuallity there probably wasn’t a “correct” move in this situation. Either pitcher would likely struggle in Detroit for portions of the season. I think DD saw this as his only opportunity to get a few dollars any sort of player back.
Moving one of the pitchers wasn’t ideal, but no one can honestly say this will cost the Tigers the division, can they?
Dave Dombrowski is *not*
“easily baseball’s best GM”. There are guys in Seattle, Oakland, Boston, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore who are all guys who do a better job with a lot less to work with (aside from maybe Boston, but Epstein is still head and shoulders better than Dave).
Dombrowski is pretty firmly just outside of the top 10 or in the middle of the pack. He’ll have his good signings (Magglio and Pudge in the beginning, Cabrera, Verlander, Polanco), but he also has a good amount of flops (Guillen extension, Robertson, Willis, the Renteria trade). He’s a decent GM who has a lot of resources at his disposal.
Having Mike Ilitch as your owner will make a lot of GMs look great.
by ozymandius1024 on Mar 31, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
the fans in Seattle, Oakland, etc.
heartily disagree. Other than Tampa, Florida, and Colorado, none of those teams have sniffed a World Series berth in the last 10 years. And remember, Florida hasn’t done anything since their old GM left. Can’t quite think of his name right now though…
…oh, I remember. Goes by the name of “Dave Dombrowski,” I believe.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 31, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair
To be fair, DD left Florida before the second world series (two seasons prior) but it was all of his guys that won it and he’s mostly credited for assembling that team.
DD is never perfect (name me a GM who is) and he makes bold moves that often go wrong (gotta take a risk to win), but he’s brilliant at re-stocking a farm club and isn’t afraid to trade a few prospects away to make a run. Some GMs are paralyzed with the fear of making a mistake. DD isn’t afraid.
Last year the minors were pretty bare (after trades that didn’t all pan out) but DD went out this offseason and restocked it.
I will guarantee you
the fans in Seattle love their current management (Bavasi has been gone for over a year and a half now).
As far as the Marlins go, their payroll when the won the championship in 2003 (with Dombrowski’s players) was almost 50 million dollars. Now they’re operating on a much tighter budget under Jeffrey Loria, have the second lowest payroll in MLB (almost a quarter of the size of Detroit’s), and are in a much tougher division than Detroit.
Larry Beinfest has been one of the best executives in baseball for a while now, and apparently Michael Hill isn’t a slouch either. If they had even half of the resources that Dombrowski has to work with, I’m sure their situation would be mightily different.
by ozymandius1024 on Mar 31, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
As a fan
I find it hard to believe someone would be happy with not making the playoffs every year. Just because Loria runs the Marlins on a tighter budget than DD doesn’t make him a better GM. In fact, the MLB is pushing the Marlins to spend more because their owner is more concerned about his bottom line than the success of the team.
Many of these GMs are considered “great” because they manage a tight payroll and have moderate success with it, but who’s to say they wouldn’t make the same mistakes given a larger payroll? Mr. Illitch opened up his checkbook for the first time in what seemed like forever, and I bet DD was happy to finally get to spend a little cash. There’s no way I’d “love” the management if my favorite team was content with falling short in the Wild Card race every year. DD is a good GM. Not the best in the game, but he’s not the coked-out fool many make him out to be. I applaud DD for taking the gambles necessary to take this team back to the playoffs and hopefully the World Series.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 31, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
My problem is with the money
I’m less broken up about trading Nate than I am about the fact we basically paid Florida his entire salary. Our success this season is going to be more about whether or not we can score any runs than how good our #4 and #5 starters are. Our solid 1-3 and bullpen will be good enough to keep us in the mix but if we’re not scoring more than 2-3 runs a game it wouldn’t matter if our rotation was 5 all stars.
But throwing away $9.6 million was unacceptable. It’s reasonable that we would’ve eaten part of Nate’s overblown salary, but I was thinking 65% or so, not 96%.
"Throwing away $9.6 million was unacceptable"
Apparently it was acceptable to Mr. Illitch.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 31, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
The move was dumb...
and I’m not convinced that Nate over Dontrelle in the rotation was better either.
So lets just start the damn season already.
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by JoelZumayaKegStand on Mar 31, 2010 10:11 AM EDT reply actions
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by JoelZumayaKegStand on Mar 31, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Why worry about the money?
1. It’s not my money, so I don’t care!
2. I am very thankful that we have an owner who does care!
3. We had to pay Dontrelle and Nate regardless, so again, why worry about money?
4. Does this move make sense at this time? I think so. As I said in the previous post
Kept the Younger Lefty
It’s simple. DD kept the younger lefty.
Robertson was never going to be any better than he is now. He eats innings but always at the back end of the rotation. ’06 was his best year only because Detroit won over 90 games.
Dontrelle is younger. If he doesn’t perform, we eat his contract which we would have done anyway. If he does perform DD looks like a genius, we keep him and we have a decent lefty in the rotation. If he performs but the team flops we trade him at the deadline. Again, DD looks like a genius but since the team flops we don’t need him as much as the cash and/or player and/or debt relief we get by trading him.
Robertson is not worth that much due to age unless he performs better than he ever has in his career, and what’s the chances in that happening?
And to answer your question
we’re hoping that Willis is The Notebook this season, not Titanic. Much happier ending.
by handsomerob1 on Mar 31, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's the first time a guy has ever hoped for The Notebook
Congrats. Turn in your man card, please.
"[M]aybe he’s hoping we’re distracting each other while he elopes with pie. I’m on to you Kurt."- madpoopz
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 31, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
man, well done Al
of course, thanks for the link.
Like Rob, I hope Willis is the Notebook haha but I really didn’t think about which one was which when I wrote that. I’d probably say since the Notebook is the ‘younger’ movie that it would go to Willis, but he could easily be the Titanic, too, considering how far he’s sunk since his Marlins’ days.
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gambles
Don’t forget Ed Renteria. That gamble didn’t pay off too well either.
And counting on Willis as a regular starter seems bat-crap crazy to me. I know Robertson isn’t much better, but I’d start him over Willis every day of the week just because I know he’s not likely to walk 2 consecutive batters and hit the third.
Looks like the Tigers will be praying for rain about 2 or 3 times a week.
by Big Z in Orlando on Mar 31, 2010 2:34 PM EDT reply actions
Willis had the advantage from the beginning
First, he may have more “upside” in that he’s had better years than Robertson has (although a long time ago).
Second, they may be thinking that there is no keeping Willis if he doesn’t have the starting job. He would have no confidence left, and he might as well be cut. Robertson made it hard for them by pitching better this spring.
I’m glad we got something, but it sure wasn’t much, and it’s shocking that we had to basically pay Nate’s entire salary. He really must not be well-esteemed around the league.
Nate must be thinking “what more could I have done?” I do feel bad for the guy. And I’m sure he’s not excited to play for the Marlins.
Problem now, when Willis falls apart and at least one other starter gets injured (Bondo is pretty much a sure thing to have some time on the DL), we are back to scraping the bottom of the barrel, just like last year.
Kurt put it best....
3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 BB
5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 BB
2.1 ER, 5 ER, 5 BB
5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 BB
6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB
6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 BB
4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB
5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB
2.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 BB
5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 BB
1.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 BB
4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 BB
1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB
0.0 IP, 1 ER, 2BB
5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 BB
-——————————
57.2 IP, 53 ER, 63 BB
The Key to Self Improvement is.....
being able to let things go and moving on. Nice to see the Tigers moving on from Robertson. I wish they would move quickly with Dontrelle and Bondo. When will Everett hit? Sizemore is looking like a good decision if they use him with Raburn and Santiago.
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