Twins closer Joe Nathan most likely out for season
He has a torn ligament in his elbow, the same one he recently had surgery on.
almost 2 years ago
allikazoo
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He's never blown a save against us
He HAS given up runs before, though.
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 9, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
That’s huge. Huge.
Especially this late in the offseason… what do you all think? Will the Twins make an 11th hour trade for someone like a Heath Bell?
A lifelong Tigers fan
Rauch has some experience closing
but based on what I saw of him last year… maybe they will.
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
Twins players have an annoying habit of stepping up big time when someone gets injured
Take last year. They lost Justin Morneau to injury, and all of a sudden Michael Cuddyer went on a tear. I could easily imagine someone like Rauch or Guerrier having a career year in the closer’s spot. Just because they do stuff like that.
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 9, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Rauch was actually
Pretty decent in his career when he wasn’t pitching for Arizona. 15 IP is obviously way too small of a sample size, but he was very good for the Twins last season.
This will hurt the Twins a lot (you really can’t overstate it), but don’t forget they’re also getting Pat Neshek back this season as well (this is assuming he’s healthy, I suppose). Rauch/Guerrier/Neshek/Mijares isn’t a completely terrible back end of a bullpen.
This really jumbles the top of the AL Central even further.
by ozymandius1024 on Mar 9, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
More likely Guerrier or Rauch
Nathan gets $ 11.25 million for each of 2010 and 2011, plus a $ 12.5 mil option for 2012 with a $ 2 mil buyout. Guerrier is a free agent after the 2010 season. They’re probably not a club that will go out and compete for a K Rod or a Fuentes. The Tigers were fortunate that Valverde dropped into their laps at $ 7 mil (and that Lyon and Rodney found better homes!).
2011 Free Agents: Mauer, Pavano, Hudson, Guerrier, Crain, Thome
2011 Arb Eligibles: Hardy, D Young, Liriano, Condrey, Neshek, Slowey, Perkins, Casilla, Tolbert.
There are some hefty pay raises in the pipeline, and a payroll that’s pushing $ 95 million before giving Mauer his due. I think they’ll have to replace Nathan either internally or by making a trade for a relatively inexpensive closer, and that will cost them in terms of some young talent. I’d put this loss in the range of about 3 games, which is significant in the Central. Nathan is one of the best, but the Twins keep coming up with good young pitchers.
Losing Nathan could offset the benefit of getting Liriano back, which I thought could be the difference in the Central.
Starter > Closer
so Liriano’s comeback will have more to say about the Twins chances than losing Nathan will.
by ChrisDTX on Mar 9, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
True, but
Closers are almost always pitching in high leverage situations, where their performance makes the difference between winning and losing. Starters pitch many innings where the game is not nearly so much “on the line”.
I do think that the closer position is often “overrated” in terms of value to the team. Fangraphs puts the value of Nathan (and many other closers) at 1.9 WAR. That’s down from some of his previous WAR numbers, but enough to make the difference in a tight race. By comparison, that’s the same as Rick Porcello, but much lower than Verlander’s 8.2. Closers top out at 2.5 WAR. They do these numbers without any consideration as to who the replacement player might be.
A 3 run lead in the 9th is not high leverage
It’s not to say that a “closer” doesn’t have value, but in comparison to a starter it’s not close. As you said, look at the highest WAR for a closer and you’ll find that it’s comparable to some pretty underwhelming starting pitchers. A quick example of the value of a closer – look at how the Phillies did with the abomination that was Brad Lidge in ‘09. Pretty good, I’d say.
+1
the Twins don’t have the talent level that the Phillies have, but a great point.
Check out Detroit4Lyfe
It's not that easy
It’s not as easy as comparing 200 innings vs 70 innings. Closers pitch in a much higher percentage of high leverage innings. A small pct of their innings will happen with a 3 run lead, and almost none with more than that, and even fewer pitching from behind. You can have a starter go seven or eight solid innings, only to have the bullpen blow it in one bad inning. The Tigers know that better than anyone, with their second in the league total of 24 blown saves. And if you have a lousy bullpen, that creates more pressure for the starters the entire game. I think there was a lot of that going on in 2008 with Verlander.
But we’re getting off track on a tangent there. The dream scenario for Twinkie fans is that Liriano regains his old form. His best year was 2006, when he pitched under 100 innings as a starter, 121 overall, and fangraphs had him at 4.1 WAR. Still more than a closer, granted, but the CHONE and Bill James projections for him have him pitching 125 to 135 innings, with an ERA of 3.57 to 4.53. You really don’t know what you will get from him, even if he stays healthy, which is a big IF.
Apparently, the new closer is Jon Rauch. Rauch v Nathan, Baker v Liriano? Something like that is how the comparison would have to be drawn, and there are downstream effects through the rest of the pen moreso than a straight one for one replacement in the rotation.
Liriano logged a career high 24 starts in 2009, and posted an ERA of 5.80. He’s their Bonderman, in many ways. If he gets his form back like he was in 2006, and if he stays healthy for the full season, he could be a game changer. So could Bonderman. Galarraga could go a long way, and we’ve read glowing reports of him being very effective in winter ball, just as we have about Liriano. I take those reports with a grain of salt. All I’m saying is that the loss of Nathan, who was very predictable up to this point, probably offsets the gain of getting Liriano back.
I don’t think that the Twins have near the talent level that the Phillies had, either in their lineup or in the bullpen to overcome a performance like Lidge had last year.
Don't like the Phillies example?
Look at the 2007 Indians. Joe Borowski saved 45 games for them. Joe Borowski! And they were a game away from the AL Pennant. Or the Tigers of ‘06 with Todd Jones. The ’05 White Sox didn’t discover Jenks until late, and they still won it all. Having a lockdown closer like Nathan or Rivera certainly is nice, but it’s a luxury as opposed to a necessity.
I suppose my point is that Liriano returning to something like his ‘06 form is going to pay way more of a dividend for that team, Nathan or not. That being said, I think Liriano’s comeback is far from a given. It’s one thing to impress in the Winter Leagues – it’s entirely another to do perform at the highest level.
I could give more examples
of teams that do very well with a struggling closer, or by pulling one out of thin air.
Andrew Bailey in 2009, winning the ROY
Bobby Jerks on the Black Sox in ’05
Adam Wainwright on the 2006 Cards
Percival comes back with the T Rays in 08
Manny Corpas for the 07 Rockies
Jones saved about 84- 85% of his opps with the Tigers for two seasons
and who can forget Rodney saving 37 of 38 with his 4.40 ERA
But Nathan is at the top end of closers. Nobody has more saves in the majors since 2004, and he saves games at a 90% plus pace
He’s truly an elite closer.
Liriano would have to do what he did in 2006 to have that much impact, and I wouldn’t bet on that happening. Merely pitching 200 innings, and he won’t do that, doesn’t provide a team with the value of a closer like Joe Nathan. A SP has to be an ACE or a solid no. 2 to provide that much value.
Yikes
that sucks for the Twins. As much as I despise the team, you don’t want to see any serious injuries like that.
If I were a Twins fan, I wouldn’t be that worried though. They always seem to be able to find guys to plug in. Heck, Nathan himself was a guy like that.
I hate to see Nathan go down
and I never like to root for someone to get hurt, but in all honesty while I cringed at the mention of ligament damage, I smiled realizing they will be playing outdoors without their closer and his 100% career save rate against us.
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on Mar 9, 2010 10:16 AM EST reply actions
I felt bad for a couple minutes
but.. yeah
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
Never wana see a guy get hurt though
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 9, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
no, of course not
but I’m not gonna lie, my second thought was that it could be good for us
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
That was my first thought
and anyone else who tells you differently is a liar of the pants-on-fire variety.
by ChrisDTX on Mar 9, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, they do
but c’mon. As a Tigers fan seeing the headline “Nathan out for 2010”, the first reaction is…alright, now the Twins might finally blow a save against the Tigers for once!
Oh I agree.....
…….Its like a U of M fan seeing that michigan hasnt beat MSU in football or basketball since November 2007.
by BennieBladesFan on Mar 9, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Look at his FIP and BABIP though. But he managed to do it in 2007 too, so who knows.
by StringTheory on Mar 9, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah he probably was "lucky" in '09
but to some extent he created his own luck by not walking anybody. He’s been able to do that throughout most of his career.
read that and had an "oh " type reaction
One of those headlines where a number of thoughts run through your head very quickly, like:
a) Good for the Tigers and the rest of the AL central, head to head, but bad for the division’s perception vis a vis other divisions.
b) Sucks for Twins fans…wonder if my Twin fan friend is going to be at luch to accept my sympathies
c) good news for the Tigers
d) I made a comment in a game thread last week that the news of his elbow soreness and tightness was news that would make a Twins fan’s stomach clench. But…I said that thinking Nathan would then take a week off in spring training, and come back a little slower than planned…nothing like, “Torn ligament, might have to undergo Tommy John surgery”.
e) but it is good news for the Tigers, Nathan had complete mastery over us, didn’t he? As has been mentioned by a number of people….maybe being down a run in the 9th against the Twins doesn’t mean lights out this season!
Now there’s optimism for ya :)
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Out of curiosity, I took a look over at Twinkie Town
A good deal of them are a tad panic-stricken right now, though there are some who are trying to reassure everyone else with the “closers are overrated” mantra. And there are a few who are mostly concerned about the financial implications.
Reactions on MLBTR
Some of the responses over there are quite funny. Some cocky twins and chisox fans over there. Twins fans realize it’s an issue but didn’t seem that worried. A few sox fans seemed to think this gave them the title. I think it’s just going to make this three team race that much closer…
by tigers22 on Mar 9, 2010 11:47 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Hooray?
Never want to see a guy hurt, but… come on- it really helps us.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Exactly
I was in no way responsible for his injury. I didn’t even say a prayer for it to happen. It happened, though, and I think I’m allowed to be pleased about it. I ultimately care more about the Tigers success than I do about the health of a wealthy veteran pitcher’s elbow.
No you don't want to root for an injury
but come on. It’s not like it’s anything that’s going to affect him non-baseball wise. And he’s had a long, successful and well-paid career. I think we’re allowed to be a little happy, no?
Exactly
it’s not potentially life-threatening like Bondo’s blood clot (or whatever it was) last year, or a bad collision in football. He has his surgery this year and goes back to dominating us next year. We should be allowed to cheer about this for now.
Check out Detroit4Lyfe
I root for him to get killed
With herpes. In a fire.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Flaming herpes!
In the last NBC game – between the Detroit Red Wings and the Chicago Blackhawks (neither or which has Sidney Crosby on the team) the “announcers” spent half the time blabbing about the Olympics and how well Crosby played in that one game … Shift, actually … And the other half of the time hyping the “Crosby vs Ovechkin” matchup the next week. And this was a game with NINE GOALS!!!
NBC sucks so very much. :(
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
by Baroque on Mar 9, 2010 5:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hate NBC
and their worship of Crosby. What is he, the great north american hope?
NBC is trying desperately to create a Crosby storyline to draw interest when TWO FRICKEN ORIGINAL SIX AND 2009 WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALISTS!!! were playing a game of hockey right in front of them. Idiots.
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 9, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
It's embarassing.
During the Canadian National Anthem after the Gold Medal game, I swear they didn’t show a shot of any player besides Crosby.
Did no one notice that Iginla made the play?
but don't ever criticize him for anything
Because then the Crosby acolytes will point out that he does more for the game of hockey than any other player, he never asked to be the “face of the league,” and that he doesn’t owe the fans anything.
Arguable, true, and I think false (as the fans through their tickets pay a part in the salaries of the players), but also irrelevant. I just don’t like being told who I should like and who I should think of as the best player in the game. I’m not a freaking idiot, I’m quite capable of watching games and making up my own mind.
Heck, I don’t even like Ovechkin anymore because now they are hyping him too much, too. :)
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
I still like Ovie
Mostly because he is NOT Crosby.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Mar 10, 2010 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
As a Tiger Fan, who is also a baseball fan,
this is not what I want to see. Here’s hoping for a full and speedy recovery for Nathan.
sniff, let me wipe away my tears...
haha!
Go Tigers!
by 30% Stud - 70% Muffin on Mar 9, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions
Womp womp........
I feel terrible for the Twins, I really do. Someone send them the roller coaster girl, I’d love for her to make some new friends in Minny.
too bad for Nathan
GREAT for the Tigers! If he can’t be traded to the NL this is unfortunately the only way to paws his Tiger-slaying ways.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
by Baroque on Mar 9, 2010 5:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Injuries make or break some teams
I thought the Twins had some bullpen issues last year. This doesn’t help at all.
sounds like it'll be Jon Rauch
a six foot ten dude with a tattoo on his neck. The tallest player in the majors. Ever.
They also have Matt Guerrier, who was very good for them last year, but the Tigers got to him, scoring 8 runs in 10 innings. Pat Neshek, the submariner is supposed to be back healthy, but I wouldn’t view him as a closer. And this is the Twins. They pull pitchers out of nowhere.
I say they should make Nick Punto the closer
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 9, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Ken Rosenthal chimes in
"The loss of Nathan transforms the Twins from AL Central favorites into mere contenders. Short-term, the Twins simply cannot replace Nathan, who has a "significant tear" in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow, "
While the importance of identifying a closer remains a subject of debate in baseball, no one disputes the value of a closer such as Nathan.
Hmmmm….. I think someone might dispute that! lol.
LOL
I hope you were referring to myself. I’m not disputing that Nathan is awesome, because he is. I’m pretty sure that none of the other options the Twins have for the 9th are going to be as good as him. I don’t think it’s anything like a death blow to their chances, though. You’ve got to have guys who get the ball to the 9th inning as well. Mijares, Crain, Neshek, Condrey…this has the makings of a pretty good bullpen. The weakness of the Twins, IMHO, is their starting pitching which is why I’m on the “Liriano is more important to the Twins success than losing Nathan” bandwagon.
The Nathan effect
Yeah, Chris, I don’t know how KR concludes that the value of Nathan is beyond dispute. For openers, I would not pay a closer- ANY closer- $ 11.25 mil per season. It’s just a misallocation of resources, particularly on a club with the Twinkies payroll at the time.
I’ve posted previously on here that I think DD has played the closer situation just about right. He hasn’t gone over board as many Tiger fans would have liked him to, but even though he has been extreme in his policy of avoiding free agents, he has gone to the well several times to buy a reasonably priced closer. I wish he’d have gone shopping a few more times for a couple of reasonably priced set up guys, rather than relying on Zumaya, Rodney, and Seay over and over again, not to mention the Jose Mesa (insert Francisco Cruceta, Kyle Bloom, Juan Rincon, Scott Williamson, Dingman, Byrdak, yada yada) du jour.
I agree that the Tigers’ advantage over the Twinkies will be in the rotation, if it materializes as expected. Liriano has the potential to be a game changer, but I would not hold my breath for him if I were them. Same as the Tigers with Bonderman- it’s worth a shot. Losing Nathan isn’t a death blow, they have as good of a shot as anyone in the Central.
Nathan, while great as usual...
had begun to lose a bit of the aura of inevitability in last year’s second half.
Trouble was, that didn’t make much difference the last month. The Twins just crushed the ball, and Nathan was good when he had to be for the most part.
They’re pretty smart up there, as we always hear. They’ll come up with something.
it'll hurt them
as the replacement closer won’t be as good as Nathan, and the guy who replaces the replacement won’t be as good as him, and etc.
But I don’t think it’s a game-changer or anything for the division. Just makes it even more interesting.
Example
Although Todd Jones was saving his opportunities at an 84- 85% rate in 2006- 2008 before he finally crashed, what killed the Tigers is they had no replacement for him. The rest of the pen was awful, saves were being blown all over the place, starters had no confidence, and the team spiraled down and out of control. The Twinkies are in much better shape as far as the rest of their pen, so they won’t take as hard of a hit, but there is a domino effect that impacts every role in the bullpen, until you get down to the kid that’s called up to fill the vacancy on the roster. It’s worth a couple of games, and that could mean the division. Hardy is a couple games, Damon a couple games, Hudson a couple games, Granderson a couple games, Valverde a couple games, Mauer and Morneau being healthy all season is worth a bunch, Miggy being sober, no metrodump—- it all plays out. Potentially, losing Nathan could be huge. If his team mates pick him up, it won’t be as huge.
Harold Reynolds mentioned on MLB TV last night
the Twins should acquire Kerry Wood from the Indians. But I see 2 things wrong with that
1) I can’t see the Twins spending the money to get Wood – he won’t come cheap
2) I can’s see the Indians letting him go over to a division rival.
I wish I knew Harold Reynolds I would like to ask why he pulls things like this out of his butt.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Well, the Indians did trade Pavano to the Twins last year, but...
Kerry Wood has an option for next year that vests with 55 games finished in 2009 or 2010 (Not sure if that means the two years combined or just one year), which is not out of the realm of possibility. I’m not sure the Twins would want to keep him around longer than they need him.
by SabreRoseTiger on Mar 10, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
I think it may
depend on how much money they’re willing to spend. They don’t have a reputation for pulling big bucks out of their pockets. I do agree that it could be a possiblity, but I just think it’s unlikely because of the $$$ that could be involved.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
A panic move would be nice
Though I don’t know how much they could really overpay for a 33 year old reliever coming off of a career year. One can hope.
by ozymandius1024 on Mar 10, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
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