Nine things I think: Justin Verlander, Austin Jackson and left-coast edition

there is formatting fail on this post but I can’t figure out how to fix it. just so nobody blames me, as I usually clean up Kurt’s little errors :P

maybe not right now, but by about the 50th game, I think we could see Everett released.

you might make the case that he’s the beneficiary of Austin Jackson Syndrome at the plate. .322 BA vs. .344 OBP? So he has, what, like 1 walk? Looks to me like he’s the beneficiary of balls falling in for hits, with the underlying plate discipline skill lacking. Of course, I don’t have BABiP numbers handy, so I may be completely wrong about that.

I think Austin Jackson, for all his positives, might need a little more time in Triple A to continue working on his swing. I’m as thrilled the next person at his start, and I really want him to grow into the star center fielder the Tigers need. But he is striking out in 37.7 percent of his at-bats. I love that he’s working the counts and finding ways to get on base. But there is no way — no way! — his BABIP is going to finish the season at .500. So that nice OBP and SLG is going to see quite a dropoff, and the Tigers are not using him as a base-stealing threat. Chasing rookie strikeout records is no way for a leadoff batter to make a career. He’s got to find a way to make more contact.

It’ll be more than the rookie strike out record. He’s on pace to break Reynolds’ K record from last year. His BABIP is not going to finish that high, oh no, but neither is his K rate. We’re 15 games into the season, he’s never seen MLB pitching before, and he’s still hitting .300. I don’t think I’m ready to agree that he should be sent back to AAA to work on his swing. If you watch the games, he makes necessary adjustments in his latter at bats to make contact (or walk) — even if it takes him 3 K’s to do it. He’ll only continue to improve in that regard.

And let’s assume he does somehow maintain a respectable batting average for a rookie with a high K total? Then who cares. K’s, when nobody needs to be moved over, count the same as a fly ball to the track. Way too much stock put into them because they’re not sexy.

Always nice to see.

…I dont wana see him go down there…he can learn on this level…besides who would play CF?…Clete?…He strikes out almost just as much as Ajax…AJAX BABY!!!!

The AL Central isn’t very good, the sox look awful the indians just don’t have talent and the royals are missing a bullpen. The Tigs and the Twins should be the only two teams with a record north of .500

and those are some excellent points, Kurt.

1. The ONLY reason that I’m not concerned about the starting pitching is precisely because it’s still early. JV didn’t exactly bolt outta the gate with both guns blazing last year, and he turned out okay. Porcello wasn’t hit hard in his last start, but he was hit often and he was getting the ball up. Bonderman showed us something last night after the first inning blues passed, making it two outta three ain’t bad for him. Give it time. But if the rotation is a problem, just start the fire sale on these contracts that are coming off the books anyway. Oh, nobody wants them. Never mind!

2. I was always concerned, as many commentators were, about putting a hitter with the kind of K/ BB ratio that AJax has been, into the lead off role. What I like most of all is the plate discipline and ability to work the count and foul off tough pitches that AJax has displayed. But you take out 38% for his K’s and then multiply the rest of his 62% of AB’s by a more reasonable avg when he puts the ball in play (there are no homers), and the result is not a lead off hitter, if he’s a major leaguer at all.

In the field, this kid is the real deal. Jackson made two stellar plays last night alone, one on the fly into the RCF gap, and one charging in on a blooper, neither of which I think Granderson makes (as much as I like Curtis). I have zero concern any more about defense in CF.

If AJax can’t cut it in a lead off role, who leads off? I vote for Sizemore. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting there.

3. This is the one that I disagree with. We’ve had a full year of this scenario- failure to get runners home Twice in the past two games, Inge fails to move the runner. Two men on base, pitcher struggling, 2- 0 count, and the idiot hacks away and pops out to end the inning. Man on base, we’ve just tied the game, nobody out- move the runner up, right? Wrong, the maroon strikes out. The bigger maroon is the one that sent him in to pinch hit for Kelly, who was driving the ball well all night. Failure to bring runners home is a problem and has been a problem. As long as we have the big LIE- Laird, Inge, and Everett, it will continue to be a problem. It was nice to see all three get a night off.

4. Playing half our games against KC and the Injuns hasn’t hurt the Tigs in the standings.

5. The Twinkies are hot, all right. Isn’t that where they left off last year? They needed a 2B and SS, and they went out and got them. We’ll just have to smack em in the mouth ourselves. Still, this race is going down to the wire.

6. The three best teams in MLB are in the AL east. I change my mind daily on which one is the best. Boston added Lackey, Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron, lost Jason Bay, and they’re in last place? That ain’t gonna last. Still, none of them can win the Central!

7. Go with the ABE plan. Anyone But Everett! If the head maroon is gonna keep running Opie out there against RHP’s, he has to be stopped. Dlugach isn’t the answer to our prayers at SS, but if he comes as advertised defensively, make the move. He’s an ABE and that’s good enough for me. I’d rather send up a cardboard cutout of Ray Oyler to the plate vs a RHP than Everett!

8. I agree that the ratio of Laird to Avila has been about right. Al’s kid has looked bad at the plate, but better in the field. The darling of fan forums last year isn’t the savior he was cracked up to be, but he can hit better than G$. For my two cents, I’d go ahead and extend Laird if they feel that Avila will be the starter next year. He won’t get much more than he got in arby this year with the numbers he’s been putting up, and he’d be an excellent backup if nothing else. His job of base running last night was superb. If Avila isn’t gonna be the man, and we won’t know that unless he gets his AB’s in, then they’ll have to work up a plan B.

9. Having to play a night game in Anaheim, then the next night in Texas sucks. The league should step in on that stuff. The good thing about the schedule from a Tiger perspective is that they’ll be done on the west coast after the Dodger series in May. I think I might get a hotel room downtown for that series. The only thing that I hate about the ravine is the traffic around the place. At least it’s a weekend series.

All that being said, I’m not impressed with the AL west this year, either. Other than the Royals, the west is no better than the ALC.

well, I think you do, but you don’t realize how hard it would be to sustain such bad play. They are batting a full .050 worse with runners in scoring position than without. They have unsustainable low success rates at getting the runner home from second and third. This is going to irmprove.

And what’s with picking on Sizemore? He’s got the Tigers’ fourth best average with RISP. If you want to blame someone, blame Ordonez for batting .118.

… Do you suppose that might improve?

The Brewers beat the Pirates 20-0. I guess they missed the extra point. This is the biggest shutout in the history of ever, BTW.

Right now Jackson has 19 hits and 23 strike-outs (37.7 K%). Give him three fewer hits (16) and convert 6 strike-outs to in-play outs (27.9 K%), and he’d be hitting .262 with a .363 BABIP (in his two full minor league seasons, he had a .364 BABIP in 1024 ABs). The big assumption, obviously, is whether or not he can adjust and start putting the ball in play more often. I think he can. We’ll see. His defense has been spectacular, so as I much as I like Raburn, I would hesitate to replace him.

Regardless, when he cools off, he shouldn’t be hitting leadoff. I’d prefer Damon-Sizemore at the top of the order.

I tend to agree with you about Dlugach. I’m not a big fan of Adam Everett at all … terrible hitter and I don’t think his glove is much above average. That said, I’m still not sure that I’d straight out release him, or at least until we’re relatively sure Dlugach can handle a Major League gig.

If Brent does become the shortstop, do we get to call him Luggie?

…..However no one is talking about how the last 3 games hes seen the most pitches and on the season I believe hes seen the most as well….so hes working the count and doing a great job of bringing up pitch counts of the opposing pitchers.

leave the rook in cf…..need to play avila and santiago..give ramon a chance before u start digging in the minors…thomas is a waste of time…rather see galaraga..if raburn doesnt start hitting bring up wells