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Morning prowl: Tale of two centerfielders

Trades are a funny thing. Much like the NFL draft is endlessly analyzed and graded immediately after the fact, you want to grade out a trade as soon as it goes down. Grading either are exercises in futility, as it could take years before you can determine true results of even one part of a much larger deal.

But there's no fun in waiting years, or even months. Being we're nearly an entire month into the season, with both the Tigers and Yankees settling in with their new glove men in center, I wanted to see what the fans in the Big Apple were saying about Detroit's former favorite son, Curtis Granderson.

Before we do that, let's take a quick look at his replacement, Austin Jackson

Jackson has been very effective as a rookie, yet is having the most bizarre start of a career stat-wise I've ever seen. The recent blog post at Fangraphs goes into novel length detail, but a Tigers blogger/saber nailed what's up with Jackson much more succinctly. Using the stats as of Monday night, Lee Panas breaks down the unsustainable bizarreness at Tiger Tales.

The strikeouts are a concern but they would be a bigger concern if he was not also on a pace to get 219 hits.  It's been feast or famine for Jackson in April.  The speedy outfielder has 27 hits and 32 strikeouts in 83 at bats.  So, he has had only only 24 at bats that have been not hits or strikeouts.  That translates into a .500 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  If you've heard people say that a .500 BABIP is not sustainable, it's because no player has finished above .400 since Jose Hernandez had a .404 BABIP for the Brewers in 2002.

The stats, odd as they are at the moment, should all even out in the end, as I doubt Jackson will continue to be so blatantly feast or famine, all or nothing at the plate.Once the BABIP starts to drop, and it most definitely will, we have to hope the strikeouts drop as well.  (Jackson's season long streak of consecutive games with a K ended in last night's loss to those damned Twins, so it's a start)

Otherwise...well, we'll know why the Yankees dealt Jackson to the Tigers to begin with.

Speaking of personable centerfielders with high K rates...

Star-divide

Not known to have a great deal of patience in the first place, Yankees fans are already starting to second guess giving up Jackson for Curtis Granderson. Here's what a "senior analyst" has to say at Bleacher Report.

Meanwhile, the advent of Curtis Granderson as the great center fielder the Yankees had been seeking since Bernie Williams' retirement has not gone so well.

Granderson is hitting .246, 79 points lower than Jackson.

One must wonder why Cashman was so anxious to bring Granderson in and why he was willing to give up so much.

Granderson, after all, only hit .246 last year with 141 strikeouts. He did hit 30 home runs but his OPS+ was mediocre at 100.

Jackson had been touted as the best prospect in the Yankee system for the past four years. He was obviously ready to take the big stage and has shown that in Detroit.

The grass is always greener...or something like that.

Despite the weirdness of Jackson's stats, his performance has blunted the disappointment of Granderson no longer wearing the Olde English D. That, and the fact Granderson isn't totally helpless against left handed pitching while wearing the Olde English D.

The Yankee U takes a deeper look at Granderson's struggles at the plate. Guess what they found out? Granderson still can't left left handed pitching to save his life. In fact, he's worse than ever.

The first thing that really caught my eye was the ridiculous walk and strikeout rates. His walk rate versus LHP is a paltry 4.3 and his strikeout rate is an eye-poppingly bad 38.1% (career rates of 9.5% and 23.8%).

Maybe the Tigers actually knew what they were doing when they decided Granderson was trade bait? Jackson has ably filled Granderson's glove in center, and at the plate...well, we've dissected that to no end.

lenNY's Yankees says the fans aren't booing Granderson, despite his slow start. Why?

He is hitless in his last 18 plate appearances, dropping his BA 70 points. However, he’s done a lot of the little things to keep the hometown fans from booing him, like hitting a homer in his first at-bat and a game-winner of Jonathan Papelbon. He also has two assists from center field and is yet to make an error. Best of all: we’ve heard no complaints from him for hitting seventh or eighth the majority of the season.

Essentially he's saying Granderson isn't being booed because he's a good guy. I"m STUNNED to hear that coming from a Yankees fan. STUNNED.

You'd have to believe they'd be taking absolutely no mercy on Jackson in the new Yankee Stadium if Jackson were flailing away as Granderson has been.

I know we're a long way from determining what kind of player the still very young Jackson is going to be, or if Granderson really has turned into a highly paid platoon player. But it's fun to speculate!

I'll make it a point to see where the centerfielder switch stands later in the season.

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I take anything

that comes from The Bleacher Report with a gigantic grain (more like a boulder) of salt. Granderson has always been a slow starter, and I’m not surprised to see his stats tumble a little more this April. However if anyone thinks Jackson is going to wildly outperform Jackson, they’re either crazy or they have some country-strong Kool-Aid within arms reach. Grandy is going to bounce back and start tar-and-feathering the ball in that tiny ballpark. Jackson’s stats won’t continue to be at the extreme that they are, but he won’t completely fall off a cliff either. In the end, I think we’ll get what we expected: Grandy may have a lower average than Ajax at the end of the year, but he’ll have better power numbers (hell, he already does).

And I’m also shocked he hasn’t been booed yet. It’s basically a rite of passage at Yankee Stadium.

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 8:37 AM EDT reply actions  

errr

“Jackson is going to wildly outperform Granderson.”

Dammit my brain is fried from all this studying.

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Glad my finals ended friday,

I think you said everything that could be said about that, but I just wanted to throw out there that if I were AJAX, why would I be worried about walking? He is earning the pitch he wants to hit by not swinging at the junk or off the plate stuff….He has shown a good eye, and though he continues to K, I have to believe that once the pitchers adjust to him around the league, he will be even more selective and walk more.

I also agree about Granderson going nuts this season. He has been running more it seems in NY, and how can he not have a great year, hitting in that ballpark, with that protection? A huge second half could be in the cards…..

by Fien SHOULD CLOSE on Apr 28, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

He does need to learn to take the walk

Like everyone is so quick to point out, his .500 BABIP is very unsustainable. Some of these ropes he’s hitting will start to turn into outs. Not all, but some. Still, not complaining just yet.

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well hes got 9 walks in 20 games....

…..hes on pace for 72….thats not bad really…..Maybe a few more but a 72 pace isnt that bad.

by BennieBladesFan on Apr 28, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good point

didn’t know what his walk totals were.

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

If we can't get rid of the Ks

Perhaps he can evolve into one of those high walk/high strikeout guys

Tigers Amateur Analysis

Doña of the VZ Mafia

by SabreRoseTiger on Apr 28, 2010 11:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yes

But the high-walk, high-strikeout guys are valuable because they hit for power. When contact is one of your best skills (as it is with Jackson- K’s are a plate discipline issue), you have to be able to put the ball in play.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

which he has....

…..300 avg equals putting ball in play

by BennieBladesFan on Apr 28, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

No

He’s had 86 AB’s and he’s struck out 32 times. That means he’s only putting the ball in play in 54 AB’s, or only 63% of the time. You can have a BABIP of .330, but if you’re only putting the ball in play 62% of the time, your average is going to suck.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes- for now

But he’s over-performing in the peripheral department.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Peripheral's are overrated,

with small sample sizes. All I am saying is that yes it is certainly unsustainable. But who else you going to pitch to, Damon? Magglio? Cabrera? At the moment he is benefiting from some excellent effort from our 2-4 guys (5 if Guillen was still healthy) and he has staying on his pitch. Guys with such high line drive rates are locked in. Pitcher’s adjustments will be coming, lets just hope Ajax will be better than Grandy at adjusting his approach, and lets all just enjoy those great swings we are seeing.

by Fien SHOULD CLOSE on Apr 29, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Boo

I haven’t even started

Tigers Amateur Analysis

Doña of the VZ Mafia

by SabreRoseTiger on Apr 28, 2010 11:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Same

Test on Friday, paper on Saturday, paper on Wednesday and two tests next Thursday.

On the bright side, hostage negotiation sim tomorrow!

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

YES

I’m part of a third party negotiation team trying to secure the release of 11 American hostages from an airport in Unspecifiedistan. Nobody’s ever done it. It’s gonna be sweet.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Bleacher Report . . .

. . . take on Jackson is a little odd. They say:

“He has also struck out 32 times, which means more than once every time he comes to the plate.”

Uh, no. Jackson does strike out a lot, but to the best of my knowledge, he has never struck out more than once in a single plate appearance. Every example in recorded history of a batter striking “out more than once every time he comes to the plate” has involved Bugs Bunny pitching.

by rea on Apr 28, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Classic episode

My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters

by ReichardZ on Apr 28, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome reference

and another reason why I don’t trust The Bleacher Report

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

it is my dream to one day own a boulder of salt

that way i can lick it every day and get my daily minerals.

I Like Pie

by mrsunshine on Apr 28, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Are you a deer?

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rec'd

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Two things I like about Jackson are his defense and surprising power. He has exceeded my expectations. He is probably going to go through a nasty slump at some point and he’ll need to adjust. I think he’ll be able to make some adjustments and cut down the k’s. He’ll need to in order to offset the drop in BABIP

They are not booing Granderson because he hit a big homer versus the Red Sox and started well before the 0 for 18 slump. Plus, he is batting seventh in a great line-up so they probably aren’t noticing him that much. If the slump continues for a while, they will get after him. However, I think he’ll do just well enough so that they’ll continue not to notice him.

by LPanas on Apr 28, 2010 9:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Strikeout....

….is one of the most overated stats.

by BennieBladesFan on Apr 28, 2010 10:02 AM EDT reply actions  

How so??

I’ve always thought that a strikeout is the best out a pitcher can get and the worst out a hitter can get, simply based on the fact that a hitter provides no chance of run production when they strike out.

by baum on Apr 28, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

It depends on the situation

a ground ball is better with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs. If there’s no one on base it doesn’t matter, but generally a strikeout would take more pitches than a ground out, driving up pitch counts more quickly. Seeing how Ajax bats behind Opie, there’s not a lot of chances for him to hit with runners on :P

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

True, but...

I guess I was making certain assumptions about men being on base/where they were on base without considering pitch counts. I would love to see some conclusive evidence to support your statement that strikeouts generally result in more pitches per AB than an out where the ball was put in play. You also have to take into account the potential for errors and other shenanigans that can randomly occur when the ball has been put in play. I would still contend that generally it is better to put the ball in play than strikeout. Once again, there is ~0% chance of run production with a strikeout as opposed to a ball that is put in play.

by baum on Apr 28, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

and I don’t know if there’s any evidence that a K takes up more pitches (Mike?), but it seems like that would be the case since you need at least 3 pitches for a K while only 1 for a ground out. Still, I’ll take Jackson and his K’s over Opie and his groundouts anyday.

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would argue that a groundball is WORSE than a K with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs because it increases the chances of a double play.

I’m on the train that K’s are overrated — and perturbed when people worry more about mentioning someone’s three K’s over two hits in a game.

In Jackson’s case, the worrying is fair, I guess, because it’s true – his BABIP is going to drop, so if he keeps K’ing a lot his average will dip significantly. However, there’s just no way his K rate is going to stay close to 40%. That’s an absurd rate – almost 12% higher than his previous career high. He’s adjusted so well in late at bats of games, that I can’t possibly believe he won’t adjust and improve upon putting the ball in play more.

Once his K rate gets back down to his normal 23-25% (even 26-28%), I’d say his K’s mean absolutely nil unless he has an opportunity to move runners up. Yes, you’d like to put some pressure on the defense but errors are so rare anyway that I wouldn’t think it makes a significant difference. Even so, that could all be neutralized by arguing a K makes a pitcher work more — after all, they have to throw at least 3+ pitches to strike someone out as opposed to sometimes just one pitch to get a guy to ground/pop out. Stats on that would be cool to see, though.

Overall, I’m happier with Jackson than I was with Granderson last year – I’ve liked the deal since it happened. Grandy was great because of what an awesome dude he was and he put in some really productive years, but he couldn’t hit a lefty to save his life, he already had his career year and was simply just starting to fade. A fresh start will do him well and I hope he does knock 30 HRs out of that little league field in NY. But Jackson is 23, makes way less, already looks like he takes better routes in CF, seems faster (faster HS 60 time – but I’ve already conceded to Mike that they’re probably equal speed, slightly swaying toward AJax), and I already like his approach at the plate way better than I felt with Granderson last year. Is Jackson ever going to be a 20/20/20/20 guy like Grandy? Probably not, but Grandy wasn’t going to be again either. Steady player and by far the best option the Tigers have right now in their system for the CF spot. Personally, I’ll worry about his K’s when his hitting starts to dip – which it probably will, because he is after all just a rookie – and then I’ll hop on the “ok start putting the ball in play, young fellar” wagon. But it’s April and I’d prefer not to get too worked up about an overrated stat just yet.

Detroit Bad Boys- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
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by Packey on Apr 28, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rob Neyer agrees

He wrote it a long time ago, but yes, if you hit a grounder you can possibly hit into a DP. A strikeout only gets you one out, which is relatively harmless-ish. I’m not worried.

by frisbeepilot on Apr 28, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

We can't assume that the K's will drop off though

If his K rate’s this high, we’ve got to assume that it’s at least a possibility that it’ll stay close to this high. There’s nothing in particular that seems to indicate regression when it comes to K rates with rookies (Mike could probably confirm- I’m making an assumption here) and it is possible the increase is due to a level jump. If so, it’s on Jackson to lower that K rate.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 29, 2010 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seems right to me

Which is why Ks are not overrated in this instance. He needs to learn to put the ball in play, if for no other reason than to increase his contact numbers. The strikeout rates of rookies should be higher, given the level jump, but that doesn’t mean those numbers automatically go down. He needs to learn when to swing and what to swing at.

by baum on Apr 29, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes and no

Because if you only find value in putting the ball in play when there are runners on base, then you are ignoring the fact that he is eliminating any chance of himself getting on the basepaths by striking out. My thought is that he probably will see a lower K rate as time goes on, but there is no guarantee of that. After all, RBI are a lot less significant and telling of a player than OBP, but you know that!

by baum on Apr 29, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would not trade AJax back to the Yanks for Curtis

I am more hopeful that AJax will improve his K rate as his BABIP comes back to earth than I am in Granderson as a leadoff hitter for this team. If we had a spot for grandy to bat 7th or 8th it’s a bit different, but after 20 games, I am very happy with how the trade worked out for the Tigers.

by redwingxviii on Apr 28, 2010 10:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Curtis was my Tiger

I admire CG, he was my tiger. However, I look at baseball and the team more than I look at individuals. CG has declined at the plate in the last 2 1/2 years. Yes, he has more homeruns, but also he was not very good in moving the runners on base especially when there was a left handed pitcher. Baseball wise, I understand why the tigs got rid of CG. Obviously the jujry is still out on Ajax. We’ll see what he’s learned when we start playing teams the 2nd time around. Baseball wise, I would keep Ajax and leave curtis where he is. Dont get me wrong, I still like CG.

by blueleo1 on Apr 28, 2010 10:55 AM EDT reply actions  

What Fangraphs Said

I really don’t need to add anything else.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 28, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

So far

So far I am happy with the trade. Despite what the numbers say, I still think Grandy is the better player right now, primarily because of the peripheral stats. But even if/once Jackson’s AVG. and OBP. come down, he is still playing great defense, running the bases well, and doing it for very little coin. The money we saved helped bring in Damon (or Valverde, however you want to look at it), and thus far, each of those two upgrades have been far more important than the very slight downgrade out in CF. Plus we got Coke and Schlereth.

In short, good job Dave. I was very, very skeptical initially, but so far, it looks like you pulled off another winner.

A lifelong Tigers fan

by ewild on Apr 28, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Don't forget selling high...

on Edwin Jackson. While I appreciated his great run last year, I never wanted the Tigers to consider giving him any type of extension. Selling high on his 09 performance played a big part in putting Mad Max into our rotation. Early returns are always dangerous, but I like what I see thus far

foul ball...a man from Romeo gets a souvenir

by Detroit.Rock.City on Apr 28, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

I think we’ve all agreed that Scherzer has a higher ceiling, if he’s not already better than E-Jax was/is.

by handsomerob1 on Apr 28, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

E-Jaxulation

gave up 10 ER last night in 2 innings.

Detroit Bad Boys- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
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by Packey on Apr 28, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Other tradees

Jackson got knocked around last night Robertson had a short start today.

Tiger tweets @ www.twitter.com/explenture
An impatient optimist not a patient pessimist

by explenture on Apr 28, 2010 2:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Don't underestimate Eckstein

He’s Scrappy.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Apr 29, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jackson

He only went 5 for 5 tonight.

by Jack Y on Apr 30, 2010 10:12 PM EDT reply actions  

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