Max Scherzer replacing Dontrelle Willis should happen. But it doesn't mean it will... (UPDATED)
Update 4:30 pm: Jason Beck reports Max Scherzer got the call from the Tigers, and will get the start on Sunday. A roster move has not yet been announced, but is expected after tonight's game. As Armando Galarraga was the originally scheduled starter, still has an option left and isn't owed a metric ton of cash...well, you do the math.
Demoted starting pitcher Max Scherzer is outright tearing it up in Toledo. His stat line shows he's eating the International League alive:
2 G, 15 IP, 1 W, 4 H, 1 ER, 17 K, 2 BB, 0.60 ERA, .083 BAA. .40 WHIP
It's no longer a question of "if" Scherzer will return to the Tigers, it's only a matter of "when." He's ready to face major league hitting. So the speculation as to when Scherzer will be called back up to the big club is just beginning.
Let me remind you what BYB's head honcho had to say about who should be removed from the rotation after Friday night's loss to the A's:
The other issue is Dontrelle Willis. He pitched more or less like he always does. Too many runners get on base. Some of them score. He still nearly comes away from the game with a quality start and gets a free pass from those who want to give him one.
But he gave up nine hits and four walks in 5-1/3 innings. That is not good.
Period.
This month he's allowed 17 walks and 23 hits in 19.1 innings. That is not good.
Clearly, when the Tigers decide to get Max Scherzer back in the rotation -- that can't come soon enough -- Willis must be removed from it.
The News' Lynn Henning, everyone's favorite Tigers columnist, drives Kurt's point home:
It depends, obviously, on what shakes out between Dontrelle Willis and Armando Galarraga. Willis will get every benefit of the doubt, especially when Galarraga has his 2010 minor-league option remaining. That's the easy call.
Willis simply has to show that he can keep the Tigers in a game. With his strike-zone problems far from overcome, it's an ongoing issue. But Willis is the team's resident left-hander, has a big contract through this year, and will be given every chance to stick.
It's obvious the prevailing wisdom is Willis should be removed from the rotation, pronto.
Yanking the D-Train before he can do any more damage to the Tigers' playoff chances is the logical thing to do. But when was the last time the Tigers did something logical when it comes to monster contracts? Just look back to the Tigers paying the Marlins $9.6 million to take Nate Robertson off their hands. I'm still scratching my head over the move.
Check out the stat line on Robertson's last start. Willis has Nate looking like the next coming of Cy Young...or at least Milt Wilcox.
I'm not saying Robertson would have been exactly what the Tigers rotation needs, but he's not near the game to game question mark Willis has become. Hindsight being 20/20, giving up on Robertson, and paying the Marlins absolutely stupid money to do so, looks more and more asinine by the day. (Not to say we told you so....BUT WE TOLD YOU SO!)
As the Robertson train has left the station, and the Scherzer train is waiting to enter, what should the Tigers do with the D-Train?
Keeping a walk-happy, big inning waiting to happen, über-expensive failed starter/middle relief pitcher/mop up man on the 25 man roster makes no sense. As no general manager in their right mind would trade even a bag of used stirrups for Willis (and his contract), it means he has to be released.
But Mike Ilitch would have to eat the remainder of what's left of the $12 million still owed to Willis. It's an immense amount of money, enough to make the Tigers' owner gag at the thought. The idea of an 80 year old owner choking to death on $100 bills isn't exactly pleasant...which is why Willis being removed from the rotation may not in the cards.
Despite the pressure Willis places on the bullpen, regardless of the L appearing after in the standings after another iffy performance, there are $12 million reasons why the Tigers will continue to run the E ticket ride known as Dontrelle Willis out to the mound every 5th day. And will till the bitter end.
Which is how I see this marriage of pitcher and team ending. Bitterly....along with a check with lots of zeros changing hands.
What will happen when Scherzer gets to call to head for I-75 North? Willis should be the odd man out. But he won't be. Galarraga will...and it'll be the wrong decision. (I checked my Magic 8 Ball for conformation. The answer? "Signs point to yes.")
If the Tigers end up in the same situation as last September, struggling to make the playoffs, wishing they had more of a cushion (or any cushion at all) because of games Willis struggled, they'll have only themselves to blame.
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Release Brad Thomas...
Move Dontrelle to the pen. Mando can start.
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Thomas could be a dependable starter, (Rant Time, Still angry about last Night, Sorry)
instead of Willis, also Fu-te-Ni, and Bonine are stretched, would like to see all 3 get a shot this year. Sborz, Fein, and the Sherriff are ready to come up…to bad for Weinhart. Tigers need 8 starters not 5, someone is always on the outs. Also Would Love to see Oliver this year, he has been improving at Erie, and did well in spring training.
Leyand’s always complaining about the pen being overworked, and I don’t remember Willis making a 7 inning start. His control is still aweful, and he had an over 5 1/2 ERA in FLA, (not a DH league), the year before we got him.
DD, so it was a mistake, the D-Train is a well liked guy, that got you a world series win, he is a great come back story, who you are paying 12m. But are you going to throw away this season? Ask Dontrell to be a teammate and go to Toledo until he has his control back, and is going deep into games. A little more giddyup on his 85-88 fastball would be nice too. Didn’t He throw, at 96 in 2002?
Why Willis and not Armando...
…Last start Armando was topping out at 87-88…Im not saying it shouldnt be Willis im just saying there stats lines are very similar as well as velocity.
by BennieBladesFan on May 29, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I’m with you, buddy. Dontrelle sucks as badly as Armando, it’s just that his flameouts look more impressive.
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by David Tokarz on May 29, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely False about Galarraga's fastball.
According to Gameday, he was at 92 MPH in the 1st inning. When he got yanked in the 5th inning it was clocked 91 MPH.
I voted for Armando
The reason behind that is as much as I would like to see Dontrelle go I don’t think it will happen. $$$$$, imho, plays a big factor in that. I look for Armando t be moved to a relief position – if he’s lucky enough. It’s a shame because personally, i think Galarraga is a better pitcher Dontrelle. We’ll just have to play the waiting game and see what the brass does.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Robertson
was the only pitcher other teams would even touch, that’s why he had to go. Armando still has an option and could only be helped by a bit more time. Dontrelle does keep the Tigers in games and as far as 5th starters go he isn’t a complete trainwreck.
More importantly, how the heck is Brad Thomas still on the roster?
I hate that logic
“the only one good enough for another team to take him had to be traded.”
Not if you’re a team trying to win this year.
by Kurt Mensching on May 29, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
yes youve said that many many times...
…As does Inge.
by BennieBladesFan on May 29, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Cute, but doesn’t really change the argument on this player and situation, does it?
Last three starts: 7.07 ERA. 2.35 WHIP. .333 BA. Get this garbage off my roster.
by john.kmiecik on May 29, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It isn't your roster.
Management doesn’t want to eat the remainder of Dontrelle’s contract. That is the only reason he’s still around.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
last three starts logic
By that logic, Porcello would have become a dumpster baby at the end of April. (3 starts, 11.20 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, .413 BA)
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Dontrelle is bad once every 5 days (at most)
The bottom of the line up is bad every game. They’re going to end up doing more harm at the plate than Dontrelle will and that is saying something, something big.
Dontrelle isn’t doing very good and his pitching isn’t helping the Tigers try to win the division but neither is the almost automatic outs at 7-8-9.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
what's 'bad' for a 5th starter?
He hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any start (every other starter on the Tigers has at least once). Tigers should be able to score more than 4 runs a game more than they don’t. If they don’t, it’s not Willis’ fault.
He’s pitched 5 or 5+ in every start, except one.
He isn’t a guy I’d have on my roster because the walk is frustrating, and I’m no BBF apologist, but all of your opinions are tainted by what Willis has done in a Tigers’ uniform up to this year. The 2010 Dontrelle Willis has been as good as a Nate Robertson would’ve been and that’s just fine for a 5th starter.
Now, I’m not opposed to Scherzer replacing Willis (that’s a no brainer), but I think there’s something for wanting to have a LHP in the rotation. And that’s probably why they’ll continue giving Willis more starts and send Gags back down.
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hey im not an apologist...
…well maybe.
by BennieBladesFan on May 29, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Dontrelle has been fortunate with the double play and managing to escape relatively damage free from the amounts of walks and hits he gives up.
He’s walking a tightrope but I am glad it is him and not Nate because Nate bothers me.
And don’t assume my opinion is tainted by his Tigers performance, it is disappointed because I remember him in Florida.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
3, 13 or 30 with willis
it makes no difference
by Kurt Mensching on May 29, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
we're talking about the past few years here
by Kurt Mensching on May 29, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
not me.
Not John. He was talking about the last three starts.
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and I"m saying
the last three starts for willis are different than the last 3 for porcello or verlander, because willis’s last 3 are more in line with his expected numbers.
2008 stats: 9.83 ERA, 13.13 BB/9, 2.21 WHIP
2009 stats: 7.49 ERA, 7.49 BB/9 (interestingly the same), 1.93 WHIP
Month of May 2010: 6.52 ERA, 8.01 BB/9, 2.07 WHIP
You see what I’m getting at? May sure looks a lot like the rest of his time in Detroit.
by Kurt Mensching on May 29, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Really going to nitpick this?
Kurt’s speaking for me here, because he’s right and simply got to this thread before I had a chance to.
by john.kmiecik on May 29, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
You mentioned 3 starts as why you wanted this “garbage off my team.” And I said your logic in singling out three starts is flawed. I didn’t know your agent would be speaking for you today, my bad.
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Except not really. Willis had six starts before the three I’m referencing to get his shit together. He hasn’t.
by john.kmiecik on May 29, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that'd be wrong.
His first 5 starts (he’s only had 8 starts this season): 28.1 IP, 11 ER, 3.49 ERA.
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If you're scratching your head about Nate Robertson, you aren't paying attention.
Nate Robertson in Florida hasn’t pitched any better than Willis here. Their K/BB rates are near identical. They both average very close to 5 innings per start. Robertson’s ERA is cosmetically better because he pitches in a better run environment, but there is nothing about his measureables to suggest he is actually a better pitcher. He actually has a worse FIP than Willis.
If Willis is pitching so poorly that someone would advocate releasing him and paying his salary to sit at home (I would advocate that), then it doesn’t make any sense at all to question why the Tigers are doing essentially the same thing with Nate Robertson, a pitcher who has a near identical skill set. Neither is good enough to pitch for the 2010 Tigers. You should credit DD for actually being able to get something at all for Robertson, because I was certainly surprised at his ability to do so.
Jay Voss doesn't really count as something back
They have an organization full of filler just like him.
by Kurt Mensching on May 29, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
the point is
that it’s cherry picking looking at Robertson one start. Overall Robertson is not doing that well and I would not want him on the team. Comparing Robertson to Willis is not the point. Both are 5th starters. The question is whether Robertson is a better 5th starter than Mando. I think we’ll learn a lot on Sunday.
by Cecil_Fielder on May 29, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes we will
we will learn if Max figured it out in Toledo, since he’s starting.
by ChrisDTX on May 29, 2010 4:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Actually, if you look at Nate's full season stats
Save for a 2+ week stretch, he’s been a solid bottom of the rotation guy, like he was before the elbow issues struck. His ERA has been steadily dropping for the last month. At 4.05, it’s over a full point lower than it was a month ago.
Again, I’m not saying Robertson would have been a savior. I am saying the Tigers would have been better off keeping him is some capacity, rather than give him away.
I’ll contend for the rest of the year if the Tigers were going to piss away over $9M and get no return, then they should have cut Willis a check and sent him on his way.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
On behalf of myself, Mike and Kurt
We told you so.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
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by David Tokarz on May 29, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at his full season stats, Nate has identical K/BB rates and IP/GS rates as Dontrelle Willis. Why does a 1.2 K/BB rate and 5 innings per start make someone a solid bottom of the rotation guy if it’s Nate Robertson, but make one worthy of being cut outright if it’s Dontrelle Willis? I understand his ERA is lower, but Nate also gets to face the pitcher spot 2 or 3 times. That skews the comparsion.
Another thing to note is that while Robertson’s ERA is at a nice-looking 4.05, he also has 6 unearned runs on his ledger. He obviously doesn’t deserve all the blame for those runs, but I think he should get some of it. In April 13th, for instance, Nate gave up a 3 run homer with two outs after a batter had reached on an error. All 3 runs unearned, but he still gave up a home run which did the Marlins no favors that day.
At one point this year, Dontrelle had a nice ERA of 3.75. It was a mirage because Willis was still walking almost one batter for every strikeout and because he wasn’t going very deep into games. There’s not a whole lot of reasons to think that Nate’s 4.05 ERA isn’t the same sort of mirage. Armando Galarraga is better than both these guys.
by Joe Galea on May 29, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It'll end soon
They’re not going to do anything while the ERA is reasonable. One of these days the DP-On-Demand will not work, he’ll give up 11 in three and a third, and be gone the next day. Everyone knows that it’s going to happen. Why can’t we just do it now and not flush a game away for no good reason? Dontrelle right now is an decent A-ball pitcher who is getting obscenely lucky. Numbers like 1.1 K/BB and 26(!!!!)% LD are just not major league quality. Time to get while the gettin’s good.
4.98 ERA? I don’t see that as anywhere near reasonable.
by john.kmiecik on May 29, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I really, really hate to discuss ERA like it matters in any way
But I think that 107th best ERA out of 154 pitchers with 30+ IP is the very definition of reasonable, ERA-wise.
Just to be clear, I am not advocating ERA-based roster decisions. Just saying that I think that’s what’s gonna happen.
Scherzer for Oswalt
Trade makes sense for Astros and Tigers.
No it doesnt
Scherzer will be better in the long term.
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by David Tokarz on May 29, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes zero sense.
Cost controlled young pitcher with an upside for a declining big contract.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Willis and Aramando...
…are pretty much similar in stats…I say stick with Willis his stats are not very good but the team has a winning record in the games he pitches…GO DTRAIN!!!
by BennieBladesFan on May 29, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions
We are not dumb!
Per the FO Twitter, Scherzer gets the start tomorrow.
by ChrisDTX on May 29, 2010 4:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
very exciting and the right move
he’ll get confidence pitching well against the sorry Oakland offense.
i’m looking for a superb performance
by Cecil_Fielder on May 29, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really worried about Scherzer getting good
Just worried the wrong guy is going to get sent.
by john.kmiecik on May 29, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
In most (if not every game) that Willis has pitched this season, the Tigers have had a chance to win
WHAT MORE DO WE WANT FROM A 5TH STARTER?
Chill out Kurt and all the haters. The concern should be with Porcello and Scherzer. We need our #2 and #3 to win on a consistent basis and go deep into games. If we have that, we’ll make the playoffs. The Twins’ pitching isn’t good enough to keep up with our stud arms IF they pitch like they should. Willis or no Willis.
It's not hate.
You’re confusing people hating on a guy for whatever with people having a problem with a guy because he’s an ineffectual pitcher.
2010 Season: 9 G, 43.1 IP, 48 H, 29 BB, 33 K, 4.98 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .284 BA
Last 3 Starts: 14 IP, 19 H, 14 BB, 12 K, 7.07 ERA, 2.36 WHIP, .333 BA
I had no problem giving Willis a spin. He looked good in spring training and for the first four to five starts I was willing to chalk it up to getting the rust out. It’ll be June next start and we’ve already burned the first quarter season. Last week for a night we were tied for the division lead. Most of the season we’ve been floating a few games back. It’s not time to keep letting the leash out on Willis. That ERA, WHIP and BA are bloody ugly for his last three starts and I haven’t seen or read anything about making adjustments that give me any kind of confidence.
by john.kmiecik on May 29, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
hes actually looked ok...
…all year to me….his pitches have a lot more movement which is leading to a few of the walks…No worries when hes goes to mound…the team has been in every game that he has pitched…thats all you need you starter to do and hes done it all year….GO TIGS GO DTRAIN!!!
by BennieBladesFan on May 29, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Option 3: make the ulnar collateral ligament invulnerable
Bionic Zack Miner takes the mound tomorrow.
Hate......Ya I Hate Bad Pitching
Detroit Has worst starting pitching in MLB, if galleragga’s or porchellos ball doesn’t sink, or sherzer reverts to tiger instead of mud hen form, they should go down too. Last 3 starts, Willis has been the worst. He should be a good team player like Galleraga and Sherzer were, and kick some butt at Toledo.
I feel like willis is an acceptable 5th starter
if you can ignore everything that’s happened in the last few years. the problem is, it happened. he has confidence issues and walks too many guys and you wonder if he’s going to even make his start every week.. and they have mando (who I am honestly not a huge fan of, but trust a bit more), and max. d-train could work as a 5th starter if there wasn’t any other option, but there is. thankfully.
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No Run Support
Willis has been fine for a fifth starter this year, having only one start that was completely unacceptable and put a toll on the bullpen. If there’s anything I want to blame Willis for right now, it’s his fucking weak ass immune system. Those missed starts for “flu-like symptoms” put more of a toll on the bullpen than games he actually started. Sack up.
giving up on Robertson, and paying the Marlins absolutely stupid money to do so, looks more and more asinine by the day. (Not to say we told you so….BUT WE TOLD YOU SO!)
If “WE TOLD YOU SO” means “we’re still not right,” then OK. Robertson’s stats are not much better than Willis’ and he’s in the much stat friendlier NL. The Tigers didn’t pay the Marlins $9.6 M, they gave the Marlins Nate Robertson, who is probably worth a few pennies. By doing so the Tigers got $400,000 back (a Raburn, Coke, Ni, Perry, etc.) and saved another $2 M they don’t have to eat in Willis’ K.
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But that's the thing
Willis has been fine. Livan Hernandez has been otherworldly. All available numbers indicate that neither of these will continue. Dontrelle Willis WILL melt down. I’d love to move on before he singlehandedly loses a game.
Why will he meltdown?...
….He hasnt shown any signs that he is going too…Hes always walked a lot of guys, even when he was winning 20 games…So im curious as to what a meltdown will be ebcasue he hasnt at this point and I think it would have happened by now.
by BennieBladesFan on May 29, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I perhaps should have defined 'meltdown' better
He’s been putting two guys on base every inning and getting out of it more often than not. At some point, he’s going to run into bad luck and give up an insane amount of runs. Not to imply that he’s suddenly going to pitch radically differently, or anything to do with his anxiety disorder, just that he will see radically different results. You can’t be an effective pitcher in the long term with a giant walk rate while giving up a ton of line drives. You just can’t.
In his glory days, he walked between 2 and 3 guys per 9 innings. This year, he’s over 6. And that’s an improvement over the last two years.
Nate is in AAAA, we've all seen how NL players do in the AL
You should get a fine for saying WE TOLD YOU SO, his ERA in the AL would be about 7. Do I have to remind everybody about these NL “good” players and how they looked here- Neifi Perez, Jacque Jones, Renteria. I’d add Everett but even the NL had given up on him but I think those 3 names should be enough to make any Tigers fan throw up in their mouth when you bring up the NL, hell Livan is dominating over there and his ERA would be about 10 in the AL.
Take the D Train out of town!
I weary of hearing “We want to put our best 25 players on the roster, because we want to to win! The fans of Detroit deserve it!” Blah Blah Blah! Ok. Worth or Everett? Inge or Sizemore (he seems to be able to play 3rd and has begun to improve under the tuteledge of Bull Durham – he or McLendon?!)? Laird or Grandpa Jones?!!! Willis or Galarraga? Bring up Scherzer and release Willis is the answer. But it won’t happen. Perry should go down in favor of Sborz But that won’t happen either!
OK , Hold On Thar Pardnuh!
We (actually,Our tremendous owner who tries each year to build a team to compete, May He Live Forever!) are going to pay Nate and Dontrelle this year regardless. We had two leftys and one spot open and based on ST performance DD kept the better one.
5th starters are always in Sparmaville. The bottom of the list. Is AG any better?
I’m glad Max is doing better. The club placed high expectations on him when he arrived.
I still miss Placido Polanco.
if the 5th starter is our major worry
then things are not that bad, most teams 5th starters are not good.

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